Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. c@tmomma @ #1298 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    Jackol @ 1295,
    Anyone expecting a grandiose “we’ll fix everything tomorrow” promise is going to be disappointed I imagine.
    It would just attract a ‘Where’s the money coming from!?!’ taunt.

    There is a lot to be done should Labor win. So much outstanding business.

  2. I had an enjoyable time once again on the phone…heard some favourable comments about the Candidate for Cowan…did some training….ate a sausage roll, considered that a small sacrifice to make for Labor…met Anne Aly’s son, who is very cool, very confident, a very good campaigner, very patient…

  3. warrenpeace @ #1301 Wednesday, June 8, 2016 at 12:03 am

    The Libs are trying to make the electorate blinded by the light.
    In fact it’s U Turn gelded by the right.

    There are lots of people yet to really tune in. I’m beginning to think a lot of them just won’t tune in at all. They are very bored by everything. They certainly are not falling over themselves to vote for Turnbot.

  4. Not saying Turnbull is very intelligent but very intelligent people have no common sense. I had a flat mate who was very intelligent but used to use a swivel chair to reach high places always came crashing down never learned.

  5. I don’t see the need to denigrate Turnbull’s intelligence.

    He is obviously highly intelligent, and has an excellent eye for detail.

    What he lacks is empathy and self-awareness.

  6. Briefly
    Yes its a popular tourist destination nowadays.I now live in the marginal electorate of Lyons. Its a large electorate with a wide diversity of people.

  7. Briefly
    I am a fan of the plans there for the Metronet rail system.Its badly needed as it has become so much busier over the last 15 years.

  8. FB is kiss of death of campaign – believe me it will be cancelled
    cringeworthy even americans did not think up this one – has anyone else in world gone there – a video cam or phone for national leaders – hear the laugher all way to trumptown

  9. Briefly
    I do think it will be built regardless of who is federal leader as long as WA Labor is returned. Obviously I prefer Shorten over anyone.

  10. can MT do something stupid much moreso that FB debate – a knighting of philip moment — please, he really is capable … leave him alone and desperate in that strange deplelted air of the everest peak that he inhabits by himself …. jumo

  11. i spoke to 23 year old 10 minutes after hearing of FB debate – (i am still laughing btw)

    she said how stupid, her generation does not know the man, he came from nowhere and needs to be known – FB is not the way to communicate with lots of people (which is isn’t – it is a social network – social media for idiots malcolm, ill write it for you – and if you think you’ll trend and go viral or something get another life quickly … this decision shows the baseless hollowness of his rhetoric, esp the big I innovation word

  12. Malcolm Turnbull’s plan for a Facebook debate is just a mechanism to get out of tomorrow’s forum.
    One thing to note is Facebook’s usage doesn’t skew as young as most people think.

  13. re: NBN & Mal

    Speed (up and down), latency (response or transaction time), robustness, stability, reliability, future-proofing, innovation and economic potential, and value for public dollar.

    Copper cannot match fibre on even a single one of these critical criteria, let alone offer an advantage over it.

    Do you agree with that assessment, Prime Minister?

  14. I’m having one of those nights tossing and turning. Maybe I’m worried about Phony Tony cracking up, or maybe it’s the late night snack giving me indigestion.

  15. Phony Tony goes into the election with all of Abbott’s policies and wont front up to a peoples forum, not prime ministerial acts in my book.

  16. Geoffrey

    Re Facebook debate

    “even the Americans didn’t think that one up….”

    Yes they did. Last August one of the first 2016 presidential debates was a FB debate.


    Tried to read through this editorial. Not sure if I can take it seriously when it’s titled “We could be looking at a second double dissolution election”.

    In the event that the Senate tries to stop the government, then the government will have no choice but to call another double dissolution election.

    It is time again for the Senate to accept that the public’s decision made at the election should be honoured. Yes, the senate should be able to debate reasonable changes in line with what the public voted for but not so as to emasculate the public mandate.

    What is this rubbish???

  18. Rather than calling a DD every time there is a disagreement in the Senate, wouldn’t it be better to hold a referendum on the troublesome issue in question? If the Senate can’t decide, let the people decide. I think Switzerland has a system where referendums are held 4 times per year to allow the people to decide on a range of policy options. That system is worth a closer look I reckon.

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