Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:
The LNP on 40% PV. They cannot win. It’s possible that Labor cannot win on 35% either. But if the Lib PV is 40% on 2 July, they will have lost their majority. This is the first step towards the defeat of the most irrelevant, debauched and reactionary Government since Lyons.
Libs 40% primary is a shocker for them.They wont win with 40% primary.
From previous thread
Player One
#1565 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:01 pm
“Many PBer’s (including myself) have done this. All you ever get back is a form letter denying any bias.”
Yes, I got back a denial of bias, too, but it wasn’t a form letter. They addressed each of my complaints. All this takes time and effort, and the complaint adds to the complaint numbers which the ABC records and reports.
The Right campaigned like this for years, and used the number of complaints to justify their stand that the ABC was biased to the left.
The other thing that is of more than passing interest is the failure of the G’s to make gains even as a distinct rise in non-Labor/non-Liberal support is being expressed. This suggests very strongly that G-campaigns – anti-Labor campaigns – have run their course. If so, this will bode ill for their Senate results and for their attempts to displace Labor in lower house seats.
A polled-result for the G’s of 10% will likely translate into 7.5-8.5% on polling day. This would not surprise me, at least. Their campaigning has alienated those whom they most need to attract…the Labor-positive.
“But Vote Compass, scientifically speaking, is completely useless. It is an opt-in poll — punters have to choose to visit the ABC’s website and answer as many questions as they choose in Vote Compass.”
This occurred to me as well. All the news stories state that Vote Compass shows that 48% of Australians believe this that or another. Of course it does no such thing.
People were complaining about this to Robbie Buck, who claimed that the figures had been statistically ‘adjusted’ or skewed to take into account the voluntary nature of the poll.
Is this even possible?
What’s Malcolm doing in Higgins this morning. O’Big Mouth is on 9% margin. Is that usual?
Mal’s new poster to be here shortenly
“Jack You malign me! I do not mix with RWNJ!!!!” (from last thread). dtt, surely you bump into some at the shops or have even (ugh) rubbed shoulders with them at the P&C. I know I have. If you suspect anyone you know (know as in to speak to, not as friends!) is a bit far-rightwards I suggest the following dialogue: “You must be disappointed with the Liberals, now they have a left-wing republican in charge”. If they agree, and say something like “but what alternative is there?” remind them they could vote for the Lib Dems or the Liberty Alliance or Family First or even, if you smell racism and bigotry, Hanson. And then remind them that even though the Senate ballot paper will tell them to number 1-6 above the line, it’s formal if they Just Vote One. Hee hee hee! I might even get a job on a phone bank for the Lib Dems. If only I thought I could keep up the pretence…
Vote Compass is another G-campaign instrument. It is just another example of institutional bias against Labor. Luckily, very few pay any attention to it.
Repeated from previous thread:
Quite obviously the composition of “other” has changed since 2013 – particularly the fall of PUP and the rise of Xenophon. So we don’t really know how the preferences of “other” will fall. In a tight election, these preferences could determine which party forms government.
One thing on this Newspoll, PUP is at 1%. With Palmer gone, is there still a PUP and if so, will they be contesting any HoR seats? Perhaps they should rename themselves “UP”.
The RGR years are now being referred to as the Gillard government. Result of Focus Groups I presume. Also very dangerous tactic to run an instability campaign if you don’t vote for the Coalition in my opinion. It won’t be long before the questions asking Turnbull to guarantee he will serve the full term as PM begin.
Seems like minor variations within the poll’s margin of error?
So who are the other 7% minor parties?
I guess Lambie in Tas but in the rest of the country?
anyone know how this stacks up
I am going to re-post this throughout the afternoon. I encourage you to do the same. Flood social media with this. The question must be answered.
From zoomaloid:
No ‘journalist’ seems capable of addressing this, so here is my enquiry to the AEC – “I would like to enquire about ‘The Turnbull Coalition’ logo. This is not a registered party, nor is the upcoming election a presidential race, yet the Liberals are using this logo as their advertising. I think this is misleading advertising, as nowhere does it state that The Turnbull Coalition actually represents the Liberal Party. I would also be interested to know if it is actually legal to mislead the voting public in this way. Also, who is paying for all this advertising? If it is indeed the Liberal Party their name should be prominent so there can be no doubt. If it is in fact taxpayers who are paying for this it must constitute electoral fraud. I shall be interested to receive your comments on this.”
Maude Lynne
The ABC has become a right-wing echo chamber. Fortunately, their audience is declining as their demographic ages.
Labor still holding back on their big guns Health and NBN policy.All a question of timing.
dtt, surely they’d include the Brick and Kerrod here in Qld, Ricky Muir and Hinch in Vic, Lionhelmet in NSW. Between us we’ve covered 4 of the states.
We have a cable installed by the developer 20 years ago. Telstra today delivering slowest speeds in 10 years, 1/10th normal speed.
Yet another howard infrastructure failure.
@ Kevin One Seven.
Come to Higgins and see how much that 9% margin is worth.
They’re knocking down the mansions that housed 2 Liberals voters and building high rise apartments that house 50 young urban professionals.
Higgins will be Green in 2019. In 2016, it is a likely Liberal retain, but a possible Green gain if Kelly O’Dwyer keeps talking.
MrMoney, can you find a section that prohibits misleading advertising in the Electoral Act? Answer, to save you search time – there isn’t one, except for one that prohibits misleading people ‘in relation to the casting of a vote”. The caselaw – see http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s329.htm and click Noteup -interprets it narrowly. ‘sides, I don’t think “Turnbull coalition” is terribly misleading – it shows he leads a coalition of a few small-l libs, some RWNJs and some agrarian socialists.
Malcolm’s dicking with the idea of having a “facebook” debate. You just couldn’t make this stuff up.
citizen @ #10 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:26 pm
The expression of support for “other” is problematic in that in most electorates there will not be any “other” candidates capable of attracting 8-9=10-11% of the vote. These candidates do not exist. So voters will, self-evidently, not be able to vote for them. I suspect that a lot of the “other” vote consists of voters who are disengaged, undecided or confused by the competing campaigns.
These voters are very, very hard to reach and to campaign to. They are usually inured to political messaging of all kinds. Who will reach them? The Turnbot “coalition” and its proxies? Or Labor, the unions and their many thousands of on-the-ground workers? We will soon find out.
Player One
#15 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:29 pm
Yes, I blame the RW bias for the ABC audience decline. My 35yr old son listens to Philip Adams, but can’t stand the biased news reporting.
Mr Money
The tactic of distancing yourelf from an unpopular party is trued and true and used by Labor quite often. provided the aurhorisation is in tiny print somewhere it will be legal.
What is a little intriguing is that Turnbull designed a whole new logo. I was 90% joking when I said there would be a split this week. Maybe I should have been only 80% joking.
scott bales @ #19 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:38 pm
Most likely, the apartment buildings will be largely empty, bought as an alternative to holding assets in yuan in a bank in China.
Welcome back pollbludger I was suspecting an AFP raid and the servers removed seeing how touchy the lieberals or is that the turdbull coalition is at the moment re adverse even treasonable comments contained here
maude lynne @ #23 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:41 pm
Same here. I used to be an avid viewer/listener. Now I pretty much restrict myself to their online content, which (apart from the IPA infested “The Drum”, and the ludicrously biased “Fact Check”) is still pretty reasonable.
Sadly, I believe Guthrie has been tasked with drastically culling the ABC’s online presence, because it competes too effectively with various commercial sites.
Tom
Me too. Reload starts taking forever and then you get ‘502 Bad Gateway’.
Closing your browser and restarting it seems to work.
K17:
Why is Turnbull afraid to front voters face to face?
[Many PBer’s (including myself) have done this. All you ever get back is a form letter denying any bias.]
The Kouk devoted an article to ABCs woeful fact check effort on LNP and Labor spending as a % of GDP.
Fact Check has Fraser, Richardson and McKibben as economic advisors for fact check but the call rests solely with the fact check editor who is a former news editor.
I don’t know how comfortable Fraser and Richardson are with the methodology used to justify the conclusions for the bulk billing and spending conclusions. If such methodology was used by super funds and/or economic forecasters for giving advice there would be serious questions to answer over whether like for like comparisons were being used.
But as fact check notes the final call rests with the editor so they may have given their honest opinion and he reached his own conclusions.
if you write to ABC re the seven questionable fact check conclusions, including the two above, you will get back an answer saying they have looked at all the material and it was reasonable for the editor to come to that conclusion as it would be reasonable for another person to come to a different conclusion.
a b @ #11 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:27 pm
That is consistent with responses I have received when working on the phone bank.
Although some here always denied its existence, the ‘Gillard Effect’ lingers on. The Libs would be aware of this and at pains to encourage recall.
Ahhhhh……..flood it with RWNJ trolls. Actually not sure how well that would work for him……
Seriously, has he gutoed out on the “peoples forum” in Brisbane as posted in the previous thread??
The “whole-new-logo” gadget suggests that Abbott had done so much harm to the Lib brand that it had become a net loser for them. Certainly, in WA, Lib livery is a voter-repelling device.
On the other hand, the new Turnbot device is hopeless. It begs the question: “If he’s not a Lib, what is he?” He has nowhere near the time nor the policy substance to establish a new brand.
He also risks becoming the “black-and-gold” brand of Lib-leaning voters. Lib voters are usually very proud to be voting Tory. They are being asked to conceal their preferences. I really don’t think they will enjoy that at all.
dtt
What is really intriguing is that there are two versions of his logo – one that mentions the Liberal party and one that doesn’t. Which one he uses depends on how “on the nose” the Liberal party is with his intended audience.
player one @ #34 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:50 pm
In this case, the Libs have lost their identity. They no longer know who they are nor to whom they are trying to appeal. If this ambiguity persists they will lose for sure.
P1
And 24, I’d say. Rupert sacked John Hartigan because he wasn’t able to stop it going live.
https://theconversation.com/partisan-divide-over-senate-crossbenchers-60540
The Libs are still retaining their old (VERY OLD) logo, but using an adaptation of the ‘stamp’ logo they had during the 2013 election and all the Abbott propaganda.
Needless to say, the election of a strong, unified Labor party with coherent polices, a healthy majority and capable leadership is exactly what we should hope for. May it come to pass.
Labor and Coalition child care policies compared:
https://theconversation.com/policycheck-labors-3-billion-child-care-plan-60523
IMACCA – Malcolm’s still ducking, bobbing and weaving on a debate.
pegasus @ #37 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:53 pm
More cross bench Senators…oh yes, we need a system that permits micro parties to win…such as the system the G’s just voted to abolish.
From Crikey’s tips and rumours section:
There was a story on how a pharmacist would be affected by Labor not giving him the tax cuts planned by LNP, said tax cuts would enable him to employ another full time pharmacist.
He owns three pharmacies, turnover around $5 million, so not eligible for small business tax cut.
net profit before tax for pharmacies is around 5%, so $250,000 NP.
Tax at 30% is $75,000, LNP proposed tax at 25% is $63,000.
So pharmacist proposes he can employ another full time pharmacist for $12,000 ???
Another 400/ 457 visa worker I suppose.
I’ve just googled that Turnbull Coalition Team logo. Don’t protest about it, Mr Money – I reckon it will just confuse diehard Liberal voters and put them off. They’ll think Australia has been taken over by the long-feared Yellow Peril! After the Libs complaining about the use of the word Liberal by Lionhelmet and friends, it’s so ironic to see them abandon it. I’d love to see them use that vague circle on the ballot papers instead of the well-known blue L, but I think they’ve left it too late to register it. I think they’re trying very hard to drive their vote down below 40%.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/06/election-2016-marriage-equality-asylum-seekers-renewables-cathy-mcgowan-launches-indi-campaign
Labor’s arts policy declared a winner by Ben Eltham:
I have just been driving through Adelaide and from the flutes it would appear a submarine is a candidate in several electorates.
@ Briefly – indeed, a lot are currently construction sites, or ‘for sale’, hence why the Greens are keeping it on the backburner until 2019 and I consider it an outside chance for 2016.
But South Yarra’s population is growing at 2.96% per year, nearly double the national average of 1.57% – some of these apartments have people living in them. Can’t be bothered to Google, but Prahran will be similar.
http://forecast.id.com.au/stonnington/population-households-dwellings?WebID=160
http://countrymeters.info/en/Australia
confessions @ #43 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:57 pm
The LNP do not know how to campaign…just hopeless at it.