Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:

bludgertrack-2016-06-06

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  2. The criticism today about Shorten’s “sexist” comments strike me as an enormous beat-up, considering that what he in fact said was:

    Let’s face it, men in Australia rely on the women in Australia to do the childcare and to organise childcare… Where you’ve got mums working part-time or full time, it’s the second job in the family, and frankly they’re doing a lot of the unpaid work — they’ve got to try to work out the childcare bills.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-06/election-live-june-6/7476494

    I’ll concede that the first sentence was rather unfortunately worded, but it hardly seems like he’s trying to reinforce traditional gender roles or speaking in favor of such things happening, rather he’s simply stating the present reality when it comes to the comparative workloads between mothers and fathers when raising children and how Labor intends to address that.

    Someone remind me, how fiercely did Fiona Nash condemn Opposition Leader Tony Abbott back when he made those comments about “house-wives at home doing the ironing”, how women are just not mentally suited to some professions, and how a woman’s virginity is a “gift to their husband”?

  3. I saw two adverts on TV last night. The RACGP showed (in ominous looking b&w) two women discussing the health effects of deferring treatment because one couldn’t afford to see a GP. Another advert by (it seems) an Australian owned optical retailer said “don’t vote Liberal” because Defence gave a contract to an overseas owned competitor.

  4. scott bales @ #49 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    @ Briefly – indeed, a lot are currently construction sites, or ‘for sale’, hence why the Greens are keeping it on the backburner until 2019 and I consider it an outside chance for 2016.
    But South Yarra’s population is growing at 2.96% per year, nearly double the national average of 1.57% – some of these apartments have people living in them. Can’t be bothered to Google, but Prahran will be similar.
    http://forecast.id.com.au/stonnington/population-households-dwellings?WebID=160
    http://countrymeters.info/en/Australia

    You’re asserting the G constituency is a yuppie-column. No wonder the G’s prefer to campaign against Labor…and no wonder the Labor-attached cannot stand the G’s.

  5. [Needless to say, the election of a strong, unified Labor party with coherent polices, a healthy majority and capable leadership is exactly what we should hope for. ]

    Others have brought up the image of Abbott in the background and that even a narrow victory for Malcolm may mean Abbott focuses on wresting the PM back off him, especially as in a narrow win it may mean that Turnbulls moderate supporters are more likely to lose their seats.

    The last thing the electorate wants is a repeat of 10-13 where you had a psychopath sole bent on destroying a functioning government for his own ego.

    it does play to labor strength that it is a strong unified party with no simmering simpering members plotting vengeance in the background

  6. IMACCA – Malcolm’s still ducking, bobbing and weaving on a debate.

    Odd behaviour. Its a matter on which he could take more damage in trying to avoid it than just fronting up and maybe taking his lumps. If he doesn’t participate then the issue becomes:
    “Malcolm Bravely Runs Away while Shorten Faces the Peril”,
    and anything that actually happens at the forum is insignificant.
    It will still be worth watching to see how much fun Shorten has with it, though I suspect he will focus on people and their questions and not spend the whole time bagging Turnbull.

    Although i have a sneaking suspicion the Libs may go for a dramatic entrance at the last minute. Hard to do with everybody watching his travel schedule?

    Although perhaps the cunning plan is that he can do it via video link over the NBN!!!! Not that anything could go wrong with that………………

  8. A B Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:27 pm

    The RGR years are now being referred to as the Gillard government. Result of Focus Groups I presume. Also very dangerous tactic to run an instability campaign if you don’t vote for the Coalition in my opinion. It won’t be long before the questions asking Turnbull to guarantee he will serve the full term as PM begin.

    Perhaps that’s a question more usefully directed to Kevin Andrews, Cory Bernardi or Andrew Nikolic. Will they guarantee that Malcolm Turnbull servers the full term as PM?

  9. scott bales @ #19 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:38 pm

    @ Kevin One Seven.
    Come to Higgins and see how much that 9% margin is worth.
    They’re knocking down the mansions that housed 2 Liberals voters and building high rise apartments that house 50 young urban professionals.

    And replacing them with 10 very conservative first and second generation immigrants that love investing in property. I wouldn’t see any change in this swing in this election. If anything, I think they’re going to increase.

  10. Thanks for the insight @#30, Boris.
    P1 & CTar1, Guthrie’s appointment is probably the most blatant example of Turnbull’s RW roots. She is a lawyer with a background of working for Rupert (plus a short time for Google). She brings virtually nothing to ABC which will help it grow to meet new challenges in broadcasting.
    Her brief is, as you say, to find new and innovative ways to destroy the parts of the ABC that affect Rupert. In this, her lawyer background will be most helpful.

  11. I found the submarine flutes quite annoying, but not as annoying as Niall Ferguson on RN telling me its because of the lefts infatuation with political correctness that we have Donald Trump. D^ckh$@d

  12. Victoria:

    Apparently he wants to do the debate on Facebook. I ask, why is he afraid to face voters in another people’s forum?

  13. [Victoria
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:03 pm
    So what excuse has Malcolm come up with not to front the peoples forum?]

    He obviously doesn’t want to ‘lose face’ again like in the first debate at Windsor.
    Presumably the event will still go ahead unless Sky and the Courier Mail want to look silly by cancelling it.

  14. @ Briefly – I’m not entirely sure what you mean.

    But I will let the Prahran state results do my asserting for me (which covers South Yarra and Praharan, but little of Toorak and nothing further East).

  15. [Shorten’s statement will resonate with very many women who know they carry the load at home and in the workforce!]

    My thoughts too Briefly, libs getting desperate in their criticism.

  16. confessions @ #38 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    The Libs are still retaining their old (VERY OLD) logo, but using an adaptation of the ‘stamp’ logo they had during the 2013 election and all the Abbott propaganda.

    They should adopt the one pioneered by Frank Calabrese.
    I’m sure Frank wouldn’t mind.

  18. It’s the three word slogan Anthony Albanese hopes will pave the way for his re-election to seat of Grayndler in Sydney’s inner west: “Progressive, effective, ours.”

    But sharp-eyed viewers of one of Mr Albanese’s campaign advertisements that has sprung up on the side of a telephone box in Newtown will notice it is missing another fairly important word: Labor.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-the-critical-omission-from-anthony-albaneses-campaign-ad-20160601-gp8zkh.html#ixzz4Alzrvnbf
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  19. Turnbull is reluctant to face the town hall crowd because they are not his type of upper class,establishment,silver spoon stuck up their arse type of people. Woebetide that he would to answer questions to the “serfs and slaves” of his society.He only wants a friendly, up his arse journos forum.The real battlers questions would put him out of his comfort zone.

  20. Asha Leu
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    The ALP made a rod for their own back – now they must pay the price for their hypocrisy.

    What next? Shorten will point out that the “gender wage gap” has nothing to do with people being paid the same for doing the same job but is actually a function of the career choices females make? OMG!

    Maybe he’ll point out the gender difference in university enrolments and graduations and commit to fixing the inequality?

  21. IMACCA – Performing in an election campaign must be physically draining. I do wonder if Malcolm feels he’s up to it right now.

  22. confessions @ #62 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:10 pm

    Victoria:
    Apparently he wants to do the debate on Facebook. I ask, why is he afraid to face voters in another people’s forum?

    This is really very gimmicky. Doubtless, T is trying to position himself as tech-cool. McLuhan was right. The medium is the message. This would make political campaigning into a sub-set of you-tube or ted-X. Political exchange just becomes more ephemeral than it already is. Weird. It is a further debasement of the currency.

  24. Asha Leu
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    he’s simply stating the present reality when it comes to the comparative workloads between mothers and fathers when

    doing the ironing . . . . oh.

  25. [Thanks for the insight @#30, Boris.]

    No worries Maude, the Kouk had a good article on the fact check GFC spending conclusion which is one of the more blatant ones, which he said could be due to either a misunderstanding incompetence or bias.

    there are another six there just as bad, the bulk billing levels uses similar questionable analysis.

  26. Boris @ Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:58 pm
    I always thought operational decisions, such as hiring more staff were based on before tax income. I’ve never heard of a company that makes these decisions based on after tax income.

    In the example given, if a new staff member was hired for say $50k per year the net profit would reduce to $200k and the resultant tax would be $60k now or $50k under Turnbull. It’s apples and oranges. This is why the LNP’s strategy to sell their tax cut policy is bogus. It relies on people not understanding how businesses make decisions, and those people aren’t likely to consider the proposal an influential vote winner.

    Essentially, the policy is being sold as if companies behave in the same way is individuals regarding the relationship between investment decisions and after tax income.

  28. “Labor still holding back on their big guns Health and NBN policy. All a question of timing.”

    Shouldn’t their big guns be:

    1. Hijack the whole reason we’re having a double-dissolution in the first place by calling for a Federal ICAC instead of just reinstating the ABCC.
    2. Force the Coalition into defending big business by resuming calls for a Royal Commission on banks (helps that the rate-fixing scandals have continued unabated, and that ASIC seems to be under-resourced and that the Coalition seems to be set on further weakening it).
    3. Attack the government’s recent recent claims that the GBR is fine because only 25% of it is dead so far, their censorship of negative reports about the reef, and promise better stewardship (and more tourism jobs).
    4. Health.

    I’d think that with Turnbull ostensibly calling the early election over the ABCC, #1 is basically obligatory. And with the latest budget granting billions in tax cuts for big businesses and individuals earning $80+k #2 is a no-brainer as it keeps attention on the fact that they’re the party that’s happy to put big business, the wealthy, and vested interests ahead of everybody else. #3 might get some people who are wavering between Greens and Labor back behind Labor, and #4 is the semi-obligatory play to the base.

    That’s how I’d run it anyways. I think Labor needs to do better than just promising more services. That will appeal to people who were going to vote Labor anyways, but it plays right into the Coalition’s strength of “Labor will spend us into oblivion”. It makes more sense to switch to a different narrative that the Coalition has no easy counter for, and play to the fence-sitters rather than the base. The base will fall in regardless.

  29. McGowan has come out in support of Nauru/Manus and of a plebescite on same sex marriage. She’s not a progressive.

  31. IMACCA – Performing in an election campaign must be physically draining. I do wonder if Malcolm feels he’s up to it right now.

    Poor diddums. What meanie decided to have a looooong campaign?

    oh!………….

  33. [ This is why the LNP’s strategy to sell their tax cut policy is bogus. It relies on people not understanding how businesses make decisions, and those people aren’t likely to consider the proposal an influential vote winner.]

    thanks A B

    It would be good if we had press that would challenge when such statements are made, it only needs a short basic analysis to say it doesn’t add up.

    they are quick to challenge a labor statement at a press conference.

  34. Anyone who thinks that Katherine Murphy is even remotely competent should read the dross she’s just written in the Guardian about Malcolm’s “foundational story”. Take your sick bag.

  35. A facebook debate? He is a fraud

    Many “volunteers” doing bums on seats in front of the keyboards in Lib HQ i think.

    Or maybe he just wants to “break the internet”??? I cant help but think a “facebook” debate may not have some unintended consequences for him though.

  36. Scott Bales @ 19,

    Come to Higgins and see how much that 9% margin is worth.

    They’re knocking down the mansions that housed 2 Liberals voters and building high rise apartments that house 50 young urban professionals.

    At last! A Green who admits they are the party of the Yuppy. About time. 😀

  37. [The decision is made where Marginal cost = Marginal Revenue. ]

    So Crank, can he employ another full time pharmacist, based on turnover of $5 million, net profit of 5% and a tax cut of 30% to 25%?

  39. My question for Malcolm Turnbull:

    ‘Why did you have that rictus grin on your face when that little old lady was crying her eyes out in front of you? It looked creepy!’ 😉

  40. K17

    I’ll take a pass. Most of the CPG actually shit me to no end these days. They truly live in a bubble

  42. Fess

    I am quite certain that after the election, win, lose or draw, his own party wont be too interested in his waffle either. I may have missed it, but I am yet to see JBishop campaigning with him these days. Unlike Shorten and Plibersek, who are often seen together

  43. Does Malcolm seriously think that the electorate is going to treat him like a contestant on MasterChef. Aren’t people going to be insulted by his attempt at emotional blackmail.

    Shorten should come out and say he had a happy childhood and was deeply blessed

  44. compact crank @ #67 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:11 pm

    briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:03 pm
    So why aren’t the ALP thrashing them?

    Arguably, we are. The LNP have dumped a PM, a Treasurer, a Speaker and now they’ve dumped their own brand. Labor’s themes resonate with almost every voter. We are very likely to undo more than 80 years of political precedent and tip out a first term Government. It is very likely that the LPN will, at the very least, lose their majority. Labor are within reach of establishing a sound majority on its own account.

    It’s also obvious the LNP have lost their basic sense of who they are trying to represent and why. Voters kind of get that. If Labor win the election the explosion on the right will be something to behold. RW intransigence on the environment generally, the climate in particular, social investment, egalitarian opportunity and civil rights will have made the LNP unelectable.

    Let’s wait and see. If the LNP PV falls below 40%, this will be their worst result since 1943. They will have marched themselves into irrelevance, ably guided by Labor campaigning.

  45. Article this afternoon on news.com.au about Turnbull’s “loc cabin and dad” video. It starts out describing what Turnbull claims was his childhood but then moves onto:

    The Facebook video appears to be a softening up of the PM — a change in tactics allowing voters to see him in a different light and make him a bit more relatable.
    But according to Deakin University political expert and analyst Dr Geoffrey Robinson, it’s a futile attempt and a sign of fear.

    Dr Robinson says the diversion is a sign taunts from Labor and comments like Peta Credlin’s “Mr Harbourside Mansion” label, and Mr Shorten asking for “the old Malcolm Turnbull” are sticking, and the Libs are more worried about them that they’re letting on.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/emotional-video-exposes-malcolms-big-weakness/news-story/9f0ebb5f328dd5171d9c757d4391ce5f#itm=newscomau%7Cnews%7Cright-now-in-%7C1%7CMalcolm%20Turnbull’s%20video%20tribute%20to%20dad%20exposes%20‘fear’%20and%20‘…%7Cstory%7CI’m%20a%20feminist%2C%20but%20fathers%20rock%3A%20PM&itmt=1465190698904

  46. How about including the AS question on the plebiscite for SSM? Or better still remove the SSM question altogether. At least then we’d get a response we don’t already know the answer to.

  48. In front of 500 supporters, McGowan outlined her legislative record and policies but it was a call for both parties to support Australia’s United Nations commitments to asylum seekers that attracted the largest cheer from the Wodonga crowd.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/06/election-2016-marriage-equality-asylum-seekers-renewables-cathy-mcgowan-launches-indi-campaign

    Cathy McGowan’s campaign launch speech: http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/campaign_launch_speech_june_5

    In regional Australia we seek to be good neighbours to others in time of need. The same should apply to those seeking asylum to our country. I believe the Australian Government has a duty of care to protect the safety and health of the people who come here seeking our protection. I call on both parties to commit to protect people from harm and honour our commitments to the United Nations; to stop detaining children, and to legislate time limits for detention.

  49. confessions @ #88 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:27 pm

    Briefly:
    A Facebook debate would at least cut down on Turnbull’s waffling!

    It is about the weirdest thing they’ve yet proposed, campaign-wise. There is nothing more powerful than the 3-D…and nothing more disposable than the digital. He is saying he is e-junk and he’s saying that is what he thinks voters deserve too.

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