Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:
• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.
• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.
• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.
Because rich toffs vote Liberal.
My old man used to say as soon as people have a bit of money in their pocket they think they are liberals and vote accordingly.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-labor-takes-the-halftime-lead-in-election-cliffhanger-20160603-gpaydo paywalled, try googling?
June 3 2016 at 8:00 PM
Election 2016: Labor takes the half-time lead in election cliffhanger
Labor has forged ahead of the Coalition for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became leader, setting the scene for a bitterly fought four weeks ahead of polling day on July 2.
The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows that at the half-way mark of the eight-week campaign, Labor leads the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. This result, based on the way preferences flowed at the last election, is a reversal of the Coalition’s 51-49 lead in the last poll a fortnight ago. When those polled were asked who they would preference this time, Labor’s lead is also 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
If this result were replicated on election day, it would represent a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor since the 2013 election, potentially handing it 21 seats, just over the minium 19 net seats it needs on a notional basis to form government.
But swings are never uniform and the election is being fought on a seat-by-seat basis. Either way, in what is the closest campaign since 1998, the result remains too tight to call.
The poll of 1359 voters, taken from Tuesday night to Thursday night in a week where the government was buoyed by good economic news but plagued by unrest over superannuation, shows the weight of expectation is still with the Coalition. It finds 55 per cent expecting the government to be returned while just 22 per cent believe Labor will be the first opposition in more than 80 years to seize power after just one term.
Labor’s two-party preferred vote at Abbott levels
Labor’s primary vote is at its healthiest level since June last year, increasing 2 percentage points in a fortnight to 36 points while the Coalition’s has slid 1 point to 42 per cent. The Greens slid from 14 per cent to 13 per cent.
Worryingly for the government, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have fallen again after the previous poll showed the slide had been arrested. Mr Turnbull’s approval rating fell 3 points in the fortnight to 45 per cent and his disapproval rating rose 4 points to 42 per cent.
daretotread @ #36 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:31 pm
I’m on call down here on the Central Coast of NSW(expecting 80mm in one day=all the month’s rainfall), and it’s not going to be half as bad as on the Gold Coast of Queensland!
Lovely to see Kerry Nettle pop up on television (thanks to whoever mentioned it upthread) – she hasn’t been heard much of for a long time, but she was absolutely terrific back in the day. The rare politician it’s easy to unequivocally admire. I still hope she has a second act some day.
Bluey Bulletin No 68 Day 74 of 103
UNCANNY X MAN
Slumlord, repayments of a few cents in the dollar for debts, forgot to register a property after giving Feeney a pasting for same. Bluey notes that Mr X reckons that none of the above applies to Mr X.
SHORTEN EXTOLS VIRTUE OF COMPANY TAX CUT
This vid is everywhere, doing real damage. The follow up – where the Liberals and the Greens voted AGAINST the tax cut is nowhere.
HOW SERIOUSMENT
Turnbull has taken to plonking ‘seriously’ into many a sentence. Bluey reckons seriously, Mr Turnbull, if you have to seriously plonk ‘seriously’ into your sentences it looks seriously as if you think you have a serious problem with being taken seriously.
SANDBAGGING
Meanwhile in the real world they are sandbagging several Queensland electorates against the forthcoming Postdeluvian deluge.
LUNATIC
Why now?
CROOK? TOO RIGHT!
Malkha Leifer joins Pell in being too sick to face the paedophile music back in Oz. Apparently she suffers panic attacks. The realistic possibility of being jailed for around seventy four cases of child sex abuse would have that effect, Bluey reckons. It does rather look as if the respective state institutions have a somewhat interdenominational approach to running protection rackets for VIPs.
CPA
Bad news for Turnbull having the CPA dissing his numbers.
MIRABILE DICTU
Hockey shows agility, innovation and possibly criminal behaviour be being in two different places at the same time. Bluey suggests he approaches Mr Slipper for advice on handling.
POLLING
Good news and bad news for the Liberals. Bluey reckons that all they need to retain government is inertia. And they have plenty of that. The bad news is that inertia is unlikely to go away should they hold government.
Verdict for the day: evens
Cumulative tally: Labor 44; Liberal/Greens/Nationals/Xenophons Anti-Labor Alliance 30.
Labor 51-49 in Ipsos
For those that want good news
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-fairfax-ipsos-poll-puts-bill-shorten-ahead-of-malcolm-turnbull-for-first-time-20160603-gpb33x.html
Labor up 2. 51 to 49
Shorten ahead preferred PM.
It would one the greatest comebacks in history if Labor won this election.84 years since a first term govt was booted out federally.It shows how poorly the
fibs have performed over the last 3 years to be in this position now, where they are hanging on by their fingernails.Labor fighting a great campaign.
Shows how wrong I am, I expected IPSOS to be bad…..these polls are all over the place, how can you get a clear reading on any of it?
confessions @ #58 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:46 pm
I don’t know which one is the more cray cray. Demidenko/Darville/Dale or Leyonhjelm!
Channel 10 were reporting gleefully the betting markets all tipping a Coalition win, and the election on ABC news in Sydney was relegated to item 10 in their bulletin.
sohar @ #107 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:11 pm
I’m going to go cray cray myself if this keeps up! 😀
The polls are swinging with wild abandon from 50% all the way to 51%.
And Iposos has a house bias to the Coalition!
Bemused
Now I happen to know quite a few people in the seat of Melbourne and they are all greensih left Labor and current or ex ALP members. I recall my friend discussing how the local ALP branches had moved Green. They supported Tanner. So not sure who you know, but I am pretty sure on this one.
Clearly you have comprehension issues. I said of my branch, I would be perhaps amongst the 25% most greenish but not the 10% most greenish. The current ALP candidate who is a lovely guy, but is mentioned in dispatches by the LNP over his AS views. ALP people I know are active in Labor for Palestinians, LEAN, Just Peace and Labor for refugees. I would call these all “green” issues.
Bemused you do realise that from the persepctive of a left leaning ALP member circa 1972, you would be clearly on the right. The fact that you now see yourself as mainstream, really proves my point.
CTar1
Not fit to lick boots
Age heading miss leading;shorten still behind personally but still gaining.
william bowe @ #114 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:18 pm
That would be 49% to 51% in the case of Ipsos though, wouldn’t it? 🙂
It’s a toss up at present C@t!
shellbell
And I bet George is vetting the draft opinions.
What a pity the deal has not been signed. I think that leyholm may have enjoyed a spell at her majesty’s pleasure.
let me say that of all the awful corrupt things done recently, that “deal” is the very worst. They both belong in jail and for a good long time.
The Greens slid from 14 per cent to 13 per cent.
Too bad, so sad. 😀
william bowe @ #114 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:18 pm
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Yep, as are the adjectives.
https://twitter.com/billshortenmp/status/738270151133429760
William Bowe
Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:18 pm
The polls are swinging with wild abandon from 50% all the way to 51%.
Something in it for everyone.
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp 23h23 hours ago
Bill Shorten Retweeted Dr Bastian Seidel
This is Malcolm Turnbull’s GP Tax taking hold. Labor will protect Medicare & reverse the Liberals’ GP Tax.
From what I saw of the Kenny article on Ipsos, I think he said LNP are 48 primary in Qld. This must mean the swing to Labor is big in other places to compensate.
William
Do i detect a hint of sarcasm in that comment?
oops
I meant this one.
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp Jun 2
Bill Shorten Retweeted FBi Radio
Community radio is the independent voice of our communities. We’ll ensure it continues to thrive.#keepcommunityradio
The arm wrestle is at the stage where the other guy has got his second wind and is fighting back with all he has left in him. Now we are going to see one or the other finally wear down any resistance and slam the other down to the mat.
Which one?
Surprised. I did not expect this latest Ipsos to favour Labor.
Even former members of the Liberal party/young Liberals don’t draw rancour from me, especially if they’ve decided to split due to the party lurching away from their moderate views. Or if it was decades ago
Community TV, Channel 31, gave us Waleed Aly with his show, ‘Salam Cafe’. I think his wife also appeared on it. It was very funny.
Unless there is Coalition ‘birthday cake’ disaster on or soon after June 15 when the electorate wakes up and have to tell the kids no trips away these school holidays because we can’t afford it (cracks in the super nest egg or fro zen wages)_ Coalition sources are tracking a realistic 80/6 net result while I harbor hopes of a 75/65/5 hanger in the HOR – Most with blue and/or red baseball bats, I’m told, are saving them for the Senate – A two election strategy is an involuntary but likely reality Bill Shorten faces – but what a wonderful leader he has become – he was always an instinctive camapigner
80/64/6 doh
I’m calling it a surge to Labor, why not.
75/70/5 hanger double doh
So Blot is worried that the Libs can’t control Malcum. while all of us and a good deal of the population worry that they’re controlling him too much? Ho ho ho, Blot!
I don’t know about the cray cray but Helen D was certainly at the centre of one of the most bizarre episodes in the annals of Oz literature and history, and I’m so intrigued about her cropping up now in this equally bizarre way. I want to know the story behind that!
Tom Hughes QC comments are out from behind the paywall. Is Rupert playing a duplicitous, back- stabbing game?
“According to a new biography, Mr Hughes, Lucy Turnbull’s father, sent a handwritten note to Mr Turnbull after he lost the Liberal leadership to Mr Abbott in 2009. “There is room only for improvement and the party’s present folly will pass,” he said.
The book also republishes a blistering letter Mr Hughes sent to his brother, the late Robert Hughes, world-renowned as an art critic and accomplished historian, when Mr Abbott became Liberal leader.
”This is a potentially catastrophic decision,” he wrote. “To elect Abbott in his place is the equivalent of putting the bull in charge of the china shop or the principal lunatic in charge of the asylum. Abbott’s behaviour in relation to the risks of global warming may be compared to the oscillations of the weather vane.”
”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/making-lunatic-abbott-lib-leader-a-folly-hughes-wrote-to-turnbull/news-story/1b5df3df20769b5d2e85f513cc07d59d
BK, how does it feel to be in a marginal seat?
I think the polls are showing normal variability, what is different is the level of scrutiny, both here and elsewhere.
Over the last 2 weeks I don’t think much has changed, however Turnbull is spending a lot of time campaigning in LNP (safe or otherwise seats), Shorten is also campaigning in Liberal sites.
I think that is the story of the week.
John Reidy
It feels good. It is the first time I have EVER been in a realistically marginal seat.
And this stage setting for Hilary Clinton today puts our former PM to shame
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj-YFoHVAAAn8fh?format=jpg&name=large
sprocket_ @ #142 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:44 pm
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Then today, the sorry, not sorry note –
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-turnbull-dadinlaws-sorrynotsorry-note-to-abbott-20160603-gpb4im#ixzz4AVphB0Qh
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Sprocket_
Wow! It looks looks it came out of a 1950s musical!
sprocket_ @ #145 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 8:50 pm
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Abbott will clearly go for the golden eagles atop the many flags….next time.
Hail Caesar!
Jack
I think Bolt is concerned the Lib Right will lose control of Turnbull if he wins a majority.
Among the things that have changed in the Lib Campaign has been disappearance of the “Cities” rhetoric. This may have played well in some of the congested urban seats though, considering the many lies they’ve been told in the past, may equally have registered as just more falsehoods and gone down poorly in the urban marginals.
In any case, it probably went down very badly in the regions, where lack of investment, broken promises and poor services are almost legendary.
Either way, a prominent Turnbot theme appears to have been zapped. Maybe this can be explained, in part, by the apparent poor polling for the LNP in non-capital seats.