Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.

bludgertrack-2016-06-03

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 32 of 33
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  1. G’day bludgers
    That supposedly Labor attack ad against the Greens (could it possibly be a hoax?) is rather amusing. I like the way it says “Check the Facts” and then quotes a whole lot of press headlines, mainly from News Limited papers (typically not the ALP’s preferred source of “facts”).
    Anyway, clearly Labor is running scared in some inner city electorates.

  2. c@tmomma @ #1550 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 1:15 pm

    I think the NSW result could be interesting in the same way the WA result will. That is, the electorate may take their animus for the Liberal State leader, in our case Mike Baird, out against the federal party. Mile Baird, since his autocratic and authoritarian ways have become more noticeable, is now getting to be on the nose and a nett negative rather than a nett positive. I believe that this will have an incremental effect but may be telling in a close election where every seat in NSW counts for the Coalition.

    Five years of nil real household income growth alongside higher State charges and cuts to services and social support really register. I think they are felt more acutely in the non-capitals because there are fewer economic opportunities. As well, the Turnbot themes have been very City-centric – even mostly just Sydney-centric – while the corp-tax-cut will likely register as regressive redistribution. It may be close…but it looks like the Libs are faltering.

  3. jack a randa @ #1465 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:18 am

    …but the more important thing is Put the Liberals Last

    Not just for centre and left voters. It is probably also the best option for moderate-right voters this time around.

    The hard right is not their friend, and they have nothing serious to fear from modern Labor.

  8. Ken Tsang
    59s
    Ken Tsang‏ @jxeeno
    … when your communications minister thinks rollout is underway in Berowra but #nbn disagrees.

  10. meher baba @ #1551 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    G’day bludgers
    That supposedly Labor attack ad against the Greens (could it possibly be a hoax?) is rather amusing. I like the way it says “Check the Facts” and then quotes a whole lot of press headlines, mainly from News Limited papers (typically not the ALP’s preferred source of “facts”).
    Anyway, clearly Labor is running scared in some inner city electorates.

    Maybe this suggests that Labor is aiming to split the Lib-leaning G-PV away from the G’s. Very astute if they are. This would weaken the G vote without also weakening the flow of 2nd prefs to Labor.

    This would be the kind of ad they might aim at voters such as yourself, MB. Voters that are Lib-anchored, who will never vote Labor on ideological grounds, and yet who vote G believing that a G-vote will a) not hurt the LNP; and b) may hurt Labor.

    Labor should take the G=vote to pieces.

  11. Rossmore: “An ALP insider tells me if the election was held last weekend the ALP would now be forming government….”
    Seems a massive call given that Newspoll shows support for “others” at 15%.
    I’d be surprised if the campaign strategists for either of the major parties would be feeling overwhelmingly confident at this point in the campaign. The polls suggest strongly that the disengaged voters are still disengaged and the remainder are balanced at close to 50/50 2PP.
    So, as always, it will be how the disengaged go in the final weeks that will determine the result. Conventional wisdom, based on past experience, is that a majority of the disengaged, plus even a portion of those indicating they might vote for the Opposition, swing to the Government at the death. That remains my gut feeling as to what will happen; however, one unusual thing about this election is that the Government is not looking as much like the “conservative, safe” option as governments usually do. This will hurt the Government.
    However, I still expect Labor ultimately to be hurt by two factors: 1) they are running with a somewhat more left-leaning, hard-taxing policy mix than has been the case since 2004, which might turn off the aspirationals; and 2) there are some lingering memories of what a mess R-G-R was.

  12. Maybe the internet problems we are all experiencing could be the revenge of the gremlins. They were promised much better accommodation by the Turnbot. He has failed abysmally to deliver and is lying about it, once again. The gremlins are voting with bad gateways. I can hear them now…”Stop the boots”

  13. I’ve generally given up listening to ABC news reports because I have to stop myself smashing the radio in frustration.
    I did, however, lodge a complaint about a particularly egregious case of biased reporting, and found the process fairly simple.

    I encourage PBers to complain. It makes you feel better, and it forces the ABC to justify what they did. You may even have it upheld.

    Process is:
    1. Go to http://about.abc.net.au/reports-publications/code-of-practice/ and download the code
    2. Record the time and channel (ABC1 or ABC News 24) or station (Classic FM, RN, NewsRadio, Triplej, 702 Local Radio) of the broadcast.
    3. Go to http://www.abc.net.au/contact/complain.htm and fill in the form.
    4. Detail how they breached the code in the Your Comments section. To have any chance of success you will need to nominate the particular standard/s outlining how you believe they may have been breached. But don’t sweat on it – it’s not a job application 🙂

    You may also read about complaints that have been upheld on this site, to get an idea about how to frame yours.

    Have fun.

  14. briefly: “This would be the kind of ad they might aim at voters such as yourself, MB. Voters that are Lib-anchored, who will never vote Labor on ideological grounds, and yet who vote G believing that a G-vote will a) not hurt the LNP; and b) may hurt Labor.”

    I have voted Labor more times in my life than I have voted Liberal: it was always easy to do when the party economically literate leaders like Hawke and Keating (and Gillard, albeit being more left wing than H and K, was pretty sensible on economic issues too).

    And, when I have voted Green, this is on the basis of my overwhelming concern about a single issue (the environment), not because I have wanted to hurt Labor.

  15. Maude Lynne

    I encourage PBers to complain. It makes you feel better, and it forces the ABC to justify what they did. You may even have it upheld.

    Many PBer’s (including myself) have done this. All you ever get back is a form letter denying any bias.

  16. meher baba @ #1561 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    However, I still expect Labor ultimately to be hurt by two factors: 1) they are running with a somewhat more left-leaning, hard-taxing policy mix than has been the case since 2004, which might turn off the aspirationals; and 2) there are some lingering memories of what a mess R-G-R was.

    lol

    This is desperate. It is clinging to something…can only guess what.

    Labor’s tax policies are not “left”. They are rational, sound measures straight out of the orthodox guide to fiscal policy, as published by the RBA and nearly every reputable analyst. They will support sound fiscal outcomes, household disposable incomes and real investment. The only voices against them are the self-serving rent-collectors and RW foghorns. Even the banks are in favour of them on grounds that make sense from the point of view of their balance sheets and total system stability.

    As for memories R-G-R, these are like faded curtains…ready to be tipped out. The more recent and relevant images are derived from the extraordinary misrule of the incompetent Abbott, who remains a popular voice inside Liberalism and, more importantly, is a continuing member of the Lib Room and a leadership threat to the ineffectual Turnbot.

  17. So Mr Turnbull is worried about losing Higgins otherwise why waste time campaigning there.

    Greens take LNP seat would be great. 🙂

  18. “Many PBer’s (including myself) have done this. All you ever get back is a form letter denying any bias.”

    Yes, in my opinion and experience they just go through the motions. After all who are we but the ones who pay their salaries?

  20. Good thing Shorten didn’t mention doing the ironing, or wear a blue tie or look at his watch – then there’d be hell to pay.

  22. meher baba @ #1564 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    The you should have no trouble responding to Labor this time. They have rational economic policies. They have policies on the environment that are supportable even if they could go further in some respects. A strong Labor government can institute reforms that will make a difference. The old maxim in Australia politics – nothing worth having is possible without Labor – remains as true today as it has ever been.

  23. ROSSMORE – I’m not surprised about that at all. There’s a reason why the Libs are trumpeting their sandbagging to the media, and it’s not because the campaign is going well.

  25. Mal’s got a new hit wonder on his hands

    ManoSand
    12m ago
    0 1

    The TCT has commissoned Dolly Parton to update ‘Coat of Many Colours’ as Mal’s campaign song:

    “Daddy sold the pubs round Sydney
    Selling every one for a fee
    He made a coupla million dollars
    That he passed on to me …

    “Although I had no mummy
    I was rich as I could be
    With a coupla million dollars
    That my daddy gave to me”

  26. Today’s Crikey editorial:

    “More than 80 per cent of Australians would welcome a federal corruption watchdog similar to the New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), Vote Compass data shows.”

    So says the ABC in one of its numerous pronouncements from on high about how Australians feel about various issues of the election campaign (we are halfway there, guys. Just keep holding on.) Vote Compass results often lead ABC news bulletins, and the national broadcaster makes much of its online poll results.

    But Vote Compass, scientifically speaking, is completely useless. It is an opt-in poll — punters have to choose to visit the ABC’s website and answer as many questions as they choose in Vote Compass. It’s a fun tool to reveal your own political leanings, but in aggregate, opt-in polls show absolutely nothing about the opinions of the electorate. According to the National Council on Public Polls, Vote Compass and polls like it are “unscientific junk”:

    “The key reason that some polls reflect public opinion accurately and other polls are unscientific junk is how people were chosen to be interviewed. In scientific polls, the pollster uses a specific statistical method for picking respondents. In unscientific polls, the person picks himself to participate.”

    Stop pretending Vote Compass is news, ABC. It is meaningless.

  30. briefly

    I have no idea of the answers to those questions. However Labor losing Batman and the LNP losing Higgins is a net loss to the conservatives. Another seat out of reach of the LNP. Batman was never in reach for the LNP

  31. Its really going to get nasty now. We might be back to Abbott style nasty complete with Newscorpse doing Nazi Comedy programme photoshopping.

  32. Rod Hagen
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:15 pm
    K17 at https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/03/reachtel-2/comment-page-30/#comment-2410294
    Newspoll still use prefs from the last election as their basis for calculations, rather than user-allocated prefs. Be interesting to see how accurate such a process is given the increase in Indie/Other votes.

    Quite obviously the composition of “other” has changed since 2013 – particularly the fall of PUP and the rise of Xenophon. So we don’t really know how the preferences of “other” will fall. In a tight election, these preferences could determine which party forms government.

    One thing on this Newspoll, PUP is at 1%. With Palmer gone, is there still a PUP and if so, will they be contesting any HoR seats? Perhaps they should rename themselves “UP”.

  33. this mals new camp-aine poster to be released shortly
    Alcibiades2016 Red_Herring
    22m ago
    0 1

    Malcolm Turnbull FIZZA! has the solution, more … (Jpg/Pic/Image)

  35. EbonyMcKenna: @misskylie77 I’m falling about laughing that the conservatives are quoting Keating. Keating has *so much* to say about them 🙂

  38. briefly @ #1566 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 2:07 pm

    meher baba @ #1561 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    However, I still expect Labor ultimately to be hurt by two factors: 1) they are running with a somewhat more left-leaning, hard-taxing policy mix than has been the case since 2004, which might turn off the aspirationals; and 2) there are some lingering memories of what a mess R-G-R was.

    lol
    This is desperate. It is clinging to something…can only guess what.
    Labor’s tax policies are not “left”. They are rational, sound measures straight out of the orthodox guide to fiscal policy, as published by the RBA and nearly every reputable analyst. They will support sound fiscal outcomes, household disposable incomes and real investment. The only voices against them are the self-serving rent-collectors and RW foghorns. Even the banks are in favour of them on grounds that make sense from the point of view of their balance sheets and total system stability.
    As for memories R-G-R, these are like faded curtains…ready to be tipped out. The more recent and relevant images are derived from the extraordinary misrule of the incompetent Abbott, who remains a popular voice inside Liberalism and, more importantly, is a continuing member of the Lib Room and a leadership threat to the ineffectual Turnbot.

    Mister Barber has clearly jumped the shark.
    Commentators such as Tim Colebatch see Shorten as continuing the approach of Hawke and Keating.

  39. bemused

    I have to agree with you about Labor policies. They are only left in comparison to the trickle down economics being used by the LNP

  40. IPSOS breakdowns posted to twitter by ghostwhovotes show the city/country divide has opened up as compared to newspoll which had them even.
    At the previous election there was 6.3% between Capitals/Non-Capital
    The primary for Labor was down 1% in Newspoll in non capitals, whereas IPSOS has it at a 6% difference.
    Newspoll was a 2 month average, so older, but likely has a larger sample size than IPSOS, IPSOS can be a bit eratic. But not sure about a big swing to the rural seats now.

  43. Bug1

    Of course. However unlike Rudd Turnbull has left it till the campaign. Mr Rudd did all his when he became LOTO before the campaign proper started. Personal story was not lost in election noise.

    Plus Mr Rudd never had the moniker Mr Harbourside Mansion.

  46. BK Uhlmann and Lewis didn’t write the screenplay for Secret City – this is one opinion from ‘Goodreads’ of one of the books the series is based on :
    Thebroadgrumps
    Sep 30, 2015

    “Steve Lewis and Chris Uhlmann have a great story line here. What a pity that neither is capable of writing – I now understand why Uhlmann is a television journalist rather than a print one. Basically written in poor journalese.”

  49. Congrats Maude Lynne on going that route and good luck – I’ve made many complaints to the ABC in the past and NONE have been upheld (as opposed to one to the Press Council about The West Australian that WAS)

    I complained to ACMA about Lateline’s infamous ‘interview’ by Alberici with Roger Corbett (Fairfax Chairman and Reserve Bank Board member) who was given free rein to abuse Rudd. It was JUST prior to the election and Alberici omitted to tell viewers that Corbett was a Liberal Party member.

    They were exonerated.

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    Tom.

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