Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:
• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.
• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.
• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.
Puff, if you’re using STFU I’m surprised you’re reading much of the Labor vs Greens stuff. Surely the 2 B’s would already be STFUd? And dtt? And I must be in danger cos I keep replying to them – but I don’t think I’ll bother any more.
Heard on radio yesterday letters between John Curtin and Robert Menzies. They were polite, friendly, even respectful of one another.
I wish for those days of politeness once again.
mtbw @ #1484 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:35 am
No ego involved so what are you on about?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/the-five-tasmanian-house-of.html
The Five Tasmanian House Of Representatives Seats
My guide for Bass, Braddon, Lyons, Denison and Franklin. Will be updated from time to time.
Jack A Randa,
This whole thing could have been scripted by Shakespeare – Much Ado About Not Very Much. Now everyone – get out there and campaign against the Coalition! 1s and 2s matter, but the more important thing is Put the Liberals Last.
Yes, it is entirely tiresome but daretotread insists on bringing it into the conversation every single day, just like a troll, though I am not casting that particular aspersion in that direction. However, once it starts others feel compelled to respond and defend against her chicken little if Labor don’t take The Greens seriously assertions.
I just wish she would exhibit more self-control, then others might do likewise but it appears to be a hobby horse of hers she cannot get off.
All I know is that The Greens vote appears to be oscillating around the 8-11% mark, so no big deal, except in those seats where their vote is concentrated, the gentrified Inner City seats of the Knowledge Industry Professionals.
I wish that was all we concentrated on here. The Senate vote is now entirely unpredictable with the new rules. All else is flim flam.
Penny on 24 now.
[If Labor manage to get in, they need to lodge an independent inquiry into the standard of political reporting and interviewing during this election campaign.
It is quite appalling across a range of programs and platforms.]
The days of fair, balanced and reliable political reporting from the abc are gone and no inquiry can ever bring them back again. It would be too contentious to define what should be fair and balanced.
best thing to do is get rid of political reporting and analysis from the abc and use the savings to fund arts programs and aussie drama and films.
Plenty of analysis on other channels and the web that is more balanced
‘Angry and Shouty’ Scott Morrison. 😀
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/02/the-coalition-booby-trapped-its-own-super-policy/
Josh Butler @JoshButler
the furore over Shorten’s childcare comment is the biggest out-of-context non-story so far. Again, his full quote:
And now for something completely – can anyone from Victoria explain to me why the volunteer firefighters have go so upset by the agreement with the fulltime firies? I would have thunk they both need each other when the bloody gumtrees go up in a Victorian northerly. (Give me a home that’s far from gum trees, and far from Gipps-land, and the Blue Moun-tains. etc)
… different… (insert where obvious)
Penny Wong asks the question about how the Coalition are funding these backdowns from the Budget?
* Backpackers Tax
* Dairy Industry Assistance package
* Backtrack on Super policy
* Pathology Industry deal
Briefly
The Greens are a legitimate Party they are as entitled to have their say just as you are when talking about the ALP.
I have just finished watching the first two episodes of Chris Uhlmann’s “Secret City”on Foxtel.
I must say it is excellent.
MTBW (Melbourne and Templestowe Board of Works?) – don’t provoke it – it seems to have settled down in the last hour or so…
The Lib/Green “deal” is a beat up. As has been pointed out by people like Antony Green (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/05/liberal-preferences-and-green-prospects-at-the-2016-election.html), the Greens don’t actually need to reciprocate with the Liberals preference for the Libs to benefit from the rumour mongering.
Kroger’s main goal is to mess with the minds of the ALP and divert resources away from the seats the LNP are trying to defend. Given the histrionics coming from the PB ALP “cheer squad” Kroger seems to have succeeded in getting the ALP dancing a little jig to his tune.
You’ve been played, suckers.
BTW how is that ALP/Lieberal preference deal reported in The Australian going? Must be very, very tempting for the ALP to have the Libs direct preferences to the ALP in Wills in return for the ALP directing preferences to the Liberals in Murray.
And unlike any Greens “deal” it would be a true case of “A Vote for the ALP is a Vote for the Liberals”.
mtbw @ #1484 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:35 am
ego?
I’m told I’m incredibly stupid, that I have trouble with my comprehension, that I’m emotional, that I’ve made the most stupid comment ever posted at PB. I’ve been told I’m racist. Now you’re telling me my ego is a problem.
With the occasional exception of the Lib-trolls, who I despise, I don’t dish out such deprecations to other posters.
I’ve been talking about G politics and G campaigning. I believe I’m at liberty to talk about those matters, among others, and I will continue to do it unless WB asks me not to.
That was unfortunate having a total system meltdown as a NewsPoll was released.
After the last few years of chaos on both sides of the House, of course the minors are polling well.
IF a major party can provide an extended period of stable government, particularly one which addresses people’s real concerns, then the situation should normalise.
However, if the other major party, in Opposition, doesn’t address the reasons why it is there, minors will still continue to attract support.
Probably time that the Liberals split and formed a new party, just as happened under Menzies. Malcolm looked like an ideal candidate for such a venture (if his hype had matched reality, at least). Certainly it’s hard to see the Liberals continuing as they are and providing any kind of coherence into the future.
stuff I’ve seen on the greens is that 75% identify labor 25% liberal, preferences go around 80/20 to labor liberal.
1 in 4 greens identifying as liberal is a lot and naturally they would want their views heard.
Concern over the environment is not an exclusive left issue and you can want better care for the environment whilst still wanting to pay your employees $10 an hour get subsidised nannys, run a Pitt Street farm and funnel your income through family trusts and Bahama accounts.
Jack A Randa
No! My Two B0bs Worth!
CTar1
Indeed, but at least Tas Hydro aren’t having to run any of the 200 diesel gen sets they’ve just finished installing.
I’m starting to buy into the ‘hung parliament’ nonsense.
Bludgertrack has had the Coalition on 76-77 seats for quite a while.
But the potential downside (for the Coalition) risks not taken into account by BludgerTrack include:
* Potential wins by NXT and Tony Windsor in Coalition seats. BludgerTrack is mostly a 2PP tracker, and deliberately doesn’t respond to a situation like this, 4 or 5 seats that each have a low-medium chance of changing. The expected number of seats changed to independent (sum for each seat of probability of switching) is surely higher than the probability of Indi going National.
* Respondent allocated preferences is consistently 0.5-1.5% more favorable to Labor than previous election. With all 4 major parties having changed leader since the last election, and with the rise of NXT and fall of PUP, there is a significant chance that the actual preference flows will be somewhere in between previous election and respondent allocated.
* Pollsters ‘scale’ their results to be reflective of the demographic of Australian voters. Whatever assumptions they use to do this will not reflect the higher % enrollment of the young relative to last election that we have seen the AEC talk about this last week or two. These assumptions are likely only revisited after each election, but if they were to be recalculated today, there is a good chance it will be more favorable to Labor.
I would say the current situation is likely slightly more favorable to Labor on a 2PP than the current polls imply because of the issues above, and the seat distribution possibly has more independents and less Coalition. perhaps 73-75 Coal, 71 Lab, 5-6 Independent.
As for the possibility of the polls moving in the next few weeks (keeping in mind that voting opens in what, 9 days? and a record number are expected to vote early), I would say that the chances of a noticeable move are slim:
The only group that have kept any powder dry are the Monkey Pod, and they are saving it for 3 months after a Coalition win (or 3 seconds after a Coalition loss).
Labor have announced their policies earlier than virtually any opposition has done. They have been governing the country and driving public and parliamentary debate for 6 months. The Liberals don’t have any policy announcements to make, they are still trying to pass their 2014 budget and don’t have time to be opening much new.
No-one has money left for any more pork. The Coalition are down to throwing dead cats for people to eat instead, but everyone can see the ‘mystery meat’ contains no Pork.
No-one is making any major stuffups (by comparison to knighting a Prince) and I don’t believe they will.
No-one is even taking any risks. Turnbull looks slightly stupid when he refuses to stand next to the local member, or attend a debate where a real person can ask a question, but the media don’t hold him to account so it matters little. If he were to take a risk in order to push for majority government, then it would likely backfire, and Turnbull knows it.
None of the adverts are hitting home – Turnbull can’t run a negative ad because he lacks Abbott’s skills in that area, he can’t run a positive add on Coalition policy because that would remind people of the Coalition’s policies. What we have left are stupid flashbacks to his childhood, as if the writers are on strike and we’re getting a flashback episode. Shorten can’t run attack ads because what could he say about Turnbull that hasn’t already been said? When Iceland’s PM was found to be making use of Panama, he ‘resigned’ within a couple of days. Turnbull openly admits his Cayman connection and the media say that shows how smart he is. Labor have been pushing their own positive announcements for 6 months, and that horse got them from 46:54 in Jan to 50:50 in April, but seems to have have found a watering hole to drink from and isn’t budging any further.
Just going to throw this one out there – if Coalition get 75 seats, but Barnaby loses his, do you think NX will get Deputy PM?
cat – “‘Angry and Shouty’ Scott Morrison”
my kids like the ‘shouty man’ on Horrible Histories, could be a new moniker for ScoMo?
K17 at https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/03/reachtel-2/comment-page-30/#comment-2410294
Newspoll still use prefs from the last election as their basis for calculations, rather than user-allocated prefs. Be interesting to see how accurate such a process is given the increase in Indie/Other votes.
Of course if Mal the Impoverished does managed to get back and there is a hung parliament it won’t be chaos and dysfunction, it will be Mal the Magnificent battling on against a recalcitrant whoever.
boris @ #1521 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:02 pm
1/4 of the G PV is drawn from the Lib pool. As long as G campaign against Labor – which they do all the time – this 1/4 seems to be fairly stable for them. They seem to be able to campaign against Labor and hold the other 3/4, tough this is in the absence of counter-messages from Labor. What happens if the G’s campaign against the LNP? They may very lose some of the 1/4. They may also encourage support for the other anti-Lib force, Labor. If they lost that 1/4, they would be in serious trouble in the Senate contests.
Zoomster
Yes I see a Lib split as almost inevitable. Maybe the Aust Conservatives will field candidates this week!
If NXT does not implode the way PUP did, I see them becoming the Hub of a new party, sitting where the Manzies Liberals once sat.
Yes Scott Bales. I reckon a hung parliament (with who knows who picking up gov as a result) is dang well near as likely as a clear win to either side now. Certainly seeing the Libs especially becoming increasingly nervous of such a possibility.
Interestingly , Turnbull increasingly looks like a lousy negotiator. Its either his way or a complete cave in. Very hard to see hime work his way through the competing groups and interests in a hung parliament.
Shorten, on the other hand would, I suspect, be as effective as Gillard was at it, which was extremely good!
Ah MTBW that makes perfect sense. It’s just that in my early years in the City of Brown and Grey (but lovely once a week when the sun comes out) I got used to seeing MMBW moulded onto hatches in the streets and engraved into all approved plumbing fittings. But now I know what Your TBW means I won’t keep having flashbacks to that any more.
Scott Bales:
Turnbull has been talking about a hung parliament outcome the last day or two, suggesting the coalition are concerned about the possibility.
confessions @ #1532 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:23 pm
T is trying very hard to shore up the LNP PV. He’s failing. If he LNP remains around 41-42, they cannot win.
Turnbulls own fault that hes talking about hung parliaments. He pissed all his political capital away in 6 months.
Ooooh dtt – Aust Conservo candidates! Marvellous if it happened but unlikely – they’ve registered business names etc but not yet registered as a party. Perfect receptacle for all the crazy “malcolm is a leftist” people who are threatening to vote informal in the Reps and just vote 1 for a no-chance RW party in the Senate. If you know any RWNJs (if you’re in Ryan there must be a few) please encourage them to take that stance.
Briefly:
I’ve been reading your thoughts on Durack. While I don’t think the seat will fall to Labor, Carol Martin is the best possible candidate Labor could have preselected for the seat.
The swing will be interesting.
So far the G’s have not been drawn into anti-Lib campaigning. This would be completely new territory for them and very risky to try in an election. So Labor are going to do it for them….do a bit of wedging and see what happens. Most likely, the G’s will stay fairly mute. This is risky too. They face being wedged by Labor on the environment and climate change. It must be driving the Pro-G’s nuts.
confessions @ #1536 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Cheers, confessions. It will be very interesting to see what happens…and it would be great if Carol won. Including Pat Dodson, we would then have two MP’s from the Kimberley. If Tammy also wins, we will have three.
Jack
You malign me! I do not mix with RWNJ!!!!
An ALP insider tells me if the election was held last weekend the ALP would now be forming government….
Jack A Randa
Glad you will sleep easily
Jack a Randa
My stfu list is short and usually it is only rw trolls whom William ends up banning. There is no one on it atm, but I am getting close to putting ‘green’ on it, to read the back posts and then taking it off, sort of a filter so I can catch up quicker.
rossmore @ #1540 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:36 pm
Makes perfect sense to me. Labor have the candidates, policies, campaign and leadership required.
Rod Hagen,
I tend to go with the poll results using last elections prefs, so it comes over as consistent over time. Respondent allocated is interesting, though.
i have a problem listening to scomo as my brain filters out his voice after a minute or so it is like a lawnmower running out in the yard as you watch TV.
FTW, my current prediction is a hung parliament – from what I’m seeing and hearing on the ground, I don’t believe for a second that the swing in QLD and NSW is that small.
I think Doyley’s right: Labor has a significant saving measure up its sleeve that it’s going to release with a week or two to go.
scott bales @ #1524 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Thanks Scott.
SCOTT – Ditto
I think the NSW result could be interesting in the same way the WA result will. That is, the electorate may take their animus for the Liberal State leader, in our case Mike Baird, out against the federal party. Mile Baird, since his autocratic and authoritarian ways have become more noticeable, is now getting to be on the nose and a nett negative rather than a nett positive. I believe that this will have an incremental effect but may be telling in a close election where every seat in NSW counts for the Coalition.