Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:
• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.
• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.
• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.
‘FFS, I didn’t think it was possible, but the ABC is getting worse!
That would be Guthrie’s influence.’
Yes, but they are getting so blatant about it.
Like on the radio news yesterday they promoted Mal’s Facebook frolic, but no mention of Labor’s actual major policy announcement.
Bemused
I defend good policy and Australian democracy. An add like that will turn off many people.
When Labor indulges in that sort of behaviour I start to lose respect.
There are some imbeciles in the ALP PR department.
B, B, and BB – why don’t you wait until the nominations are in and the HTVs start to come out until you assume anything about “deals”? Or would that be less fun than indulging your paranoia?
jack a randa @ #1453 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:03 am
When it’s too late to deter them?
OK, makes sense for the nefarious Greens I suppose.
Bemused
I am not sure there is any evidence of any deals. Maybe AFTER the HTV are printed there may be a case to make, but before seems very risky.
The problem Labor will face is if the Liberals DO preference Labor in Sydney and Grayndler. What if they preference Labor in Batman and Wills and Melbourne. Labor could find itself with a law suit from both Greens AND Liberals.
Bemused
Are you trying to tell me that that add is an attempt to deter the Liberals or the greens from making such a deal?
Jesus!!! What a dangerous strategy! Typical bloody Melbourners thinking it is all about them! What if the Greens decide in response to that add to preference NXT in ALL seats. SA Labor might suffer .
Oh, Bemused, your rants on this site, read by what, 50-60 people?, and that silly web site, are going to “deter” the Greens from a deal that they would otherwise clearly have made? Spare me! Just get out there and keep campaigning against the Libs!
I’m having trouble typing after seeing the ‘human side of Malcolm’ video – vomit on the keyboard. I think his capaign just jumped the shark in a major way – australians will laugh at this sentimental shite. (I hope)
This is a ‘I have no policies that you like, so please like me’ effort and he needs to be called out on it. The trickle down economics – “tax cuts for the rich and cutting services will save us all” message is obviously not working for them.
I reckon shorten should invoke the Fightback election – when Australian voters rejected the LNP vision for a meaner and less equal Australia – saying “The LNP did not listen to the voters after that election and has moved even further to the right – Dr Hewson is seen as a ‘leftie’ now.” and call for Australians to again reject this vision for US-style health care, education, working til you die, and social divisions. We can see where this US model leads – Donald Trump!
JACK – Less than 50, I’d say.
1934pc @ #1431 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 10:27 am
Cheers…I’m very pleased to seeLabor representing my views and seeking to persuafe G-leaning voters to support Labor in this election. The G’s have gone way too far.
daretotread @ #1456 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:09 am
Greens supporters and rank and file may revolt against any dirty deals if they are exposed.
jack a randa @ #1457 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:10 am
Thank you for further confirmation that Greens don’t like to be exposed.
Since Mr Turnbull seems to be trying the born in a log cabin line, perhaps people should be reminded of this:
“Malcolm was the sole beneficiary of his father’s estate. According to a flattering 1988 profile in Fairfax’s Good Weekend, Turnbull inherited some $2 million. In today’s dollars, that’s roughly $7 million. Turnbull went on to make a motza, but as old friends of the family told me: “He inherited a motza too.” Turnbull no longer had to work for anyone. He was master of his own destiny.”
Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-09/manning-the-turnbull-ascendancy-part-iii/7008308
Bemused
Just like Labor people might revolt against the dirty dealing of Danby against the Greens, or Labor preferencing Family First?
And dtt, now even you are thinking, like a traditional Laborista who expects discipline from the followers, that the Greens “preferencing” anyone make a difference. Greens voters tend to make up their own minds, though some small fraction of them (5% I think someone said, which means 0.5-1% of all voters) may be swayed by a HTV. This whole thing could have been scripted by Shakespeare – Much Ado About Not Very Much. Now everyone – get out there and campaign against the Coalition! 1s and 2s matter, but the more important thing is Put the Liberals Last
Labor have every right to try to attract G-leaning voters, just as they try to attract Lib-leaning voters. We know that one of the factors that guides G-voters is their desire to defeat the LNP. Labor have the same ambition. It makes a lot of sense for G-leaning voters to support Labor. Labor are correct to try to reach these voters and invite their expression by voting Labor.
Mirabella banged on for years about state issues – nice and safe, no one can expect you to actually do anything, you can make lots of snarky attacks etc.
It’s a sign you have nothing substantial to talk about.
daretotread @ #1464 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:18 am
That preferencing of FF was idiotic and should never have been done.
In HoR we always preference Greens ahead of Libs, not that it matters as ALP preferences are rarely counted and certainly not in my electorate.
The only ones preferenced lower than Libs are folks like One Nation.
I wonder if all the web sites that went down yesterday and people being unable to use their credit/debit cards was due to Malfunctions obsolete copper NBN.
As for the ABC — they did an ‘election special’ last night, looking at Geelong. The impression given was that the closure of local industries was no biggie, everyone was jolly about it and were finding new jobs elsewhere.
A couple of interviews with people who had left Ford and found work elsewhere, chirping on about having positive attitudes, taking risks, not living in the past, etc.
I highly doubt that that is a truly representative sample .
Labor are not gong to appeal to G-voters on the minutiae of things. The appeal is on the strategic imperative – the importance of defeating the LNP. Voters understand this. They are not stupid. Nor are Labor stupid, though the G’s certainly take us all for fools.
Zoom
Or that you don’t want to talk about things you should be doing something about.
[‘FFS, I didn’t think it was possible, but the ABC is getting worse!]
ABC reporter questioned Shorten the other day about where the money was coming from.
Shorten mentioned the $50 billion of corporate tax cuts of LNP.
ABC reporter said it was only $25 billion so where was rest coming from.
Shorten shot straight back that LNP tax cuts had been costed by treasury so asked if Turnbull and co were questioning treasury modelling.
This sort of make stuff up crap by abc is what you would expect from fox.
Finally I can post!
Bludgers might be interested to know:
With the amount of rain falling in Tasmania at the moment, and the number of run-of-the-river hydro generators there, if the Basslink cable were operating, Tas would be exporting at near maximum capacity to the mainland right now…
” the G’s certainly take us all for fools.” Briefly, some of the things you and Bemused say make you seem like fools with very poor comprehension skills. But the last few posts from both of you are much more rational – keep it up. We have met the enemy and he is not us – he is Malcum.
[Btw, I wouldn’t call myself a “G”. I vote 1 Green 2 Labor where there are rightish Labor candidates, but I’d certainly vote 1 Labor in Grayndler or Sydney]
bemused @ #1468 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:22 am
The amendments to the Electoral Act mean that it will be possible for voters to follow Labor and pref neither FF nor G. There will likely be a significant increase in the number of exhausted votes. If there is a Party that will be deprived of prefs as a result, it is the G.
Is Barnaby a cactus not a tomato??
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/gas-miner-santos-has-plans-to-drill-for-csg-in-new-england-documents-reveal-20160605-gpbzyw.html
[I wonder if all the web sites that went down yesterday and people being unable to use their credit/debit cards was due to Malfunctions obsolete copper NBN.]
Our ADSL goes down when it rains heavy, so do the efpos terminals at the local shops, rain gets into the pits where the copper connections are.
Mals Not a Broadband Network is ok when its not raining and you don’t need speeds greater than 5meg
LU
The current weather will slow down the ‘fix’ for it.
“This sort of make stuff up crap by abc is what you would expect from fox.”
If Labor manage to get in, they need to lodge an independent inquiry into the standard of political reporting and interviewing during this election campaign.
It is quite appalling across a range of programs and platforms.
Has anyone got anything to say other than the ALP v Green wars? You have said it already a hundred times, the lot of you. Do you think we can actually talk about the election and what is actually happening without all this useless bickering? I am seriously considering putting the word Green in my STFU list until after the election to save my scrolling finger.
Inflation will always be larger under liberals:
David Scutt @David_Scutt
Australia MI Inflation gauge +1% YY in May. Core running at 1.5% YY (link: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/uh-oh-this-inflation-tracker-says-prices-in-australia-fell-last-month-2016-6) businessinsider.com.au/uh-oh-this-inf… #ausbiz
briefly and bemused could you two put your egos in your pockets and stop being smart arses?
There is no need for the tone of both of you.
Sigh…
Prices started to fall in March 2014, just after Labor gov.
Penny Wong on 24 in 5-10 minutes.
briefly: “The amendments to the Electoral Act mean that it will be possible for voters to follow Labor and pref neither FF nor G”
That is true in the Senate, briefly, but if ALP voters try it in the House of Reps (which I think was under discussion) it will create a heck of a lot of informal votes!
Like minds Puff it is utterly ridiculous what some people say.
I suspect the turnbull “battler” video is intended to distract the news cycle at the start of the week to try to break labor’s slow momentum. I think/hope it backfires by people pointing out that his dad was such a battler they lived at pipers point and mal had a silver spoon firmly inserted in his mouth at an early age.
On ABC they televised Turnbull laying on the golden syrup at the RSL 100, but then cut to the flood news. Does anyone know if Shorten gave a speech there, or wasn’t the LOTO invited?
Briefly
Try to stay unemotional for a short while and consider the possible long term impact of the Labor/ Green war. All major parties are declining in support. They will icreasinly rely on minor paries to get them over the line or to get that second or third Senate seat. By alienating the Greens it is more than likely labor will lose spots to SEX or NXT or any other sane third party, if not this election but in subsequent ones.
My comments here are NOT just about greens and I would say the same about NXT, Sex, HEMP, Katter, and any party where there is significant overpal in policy directions. Why make enemies when you do not need to.?
An analysis of one of Di Natale’s asinine statements from Kitchen Cabinet:
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/05/feeling-the-green-love-mcarthur-river-mine-and-solar-versus-nuclear/
[Title records show that Mr Turnbull was a law student at Sydney University when he spent $17,000 on a worker’s semi on Newtown’s Wells Street.
The year after his Newtown purchase title records show the Rhodes scholar (or “student” according to the property transfer) bought a terrace on Redfern’s Great Buckingham Street for $40,000 in 1979. ]
That is a tough life, fancy only being able to afford a workers semi in Newton and a terrace in Redfern in your property portfolio when you are in your early twenties.
jeez nowadays three year kids already have a McMansion or two in their portfolio.
jack a randa @ #1476 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:30 am
I doubt I’m having comprehension problems. I think my perceptions of G-politics are absolutely spot-on.
By the way, the website run by Labor will have another, possibly more equally impact on the G vote. We know between 1/4 and 1/5 of voters who give PV support to G are Lib-leaning. (Their prefs go back to the Libs). This ad may have the effect of repelling some of these voters, in turn reducing the G/PV. The more that G protest, the more Lib-leaning voters they will lose. This will particularly affect their Senate vote and maybe their PV in house seats too.
G have been wedging Labor this way for years. It is a very great delight to see the tables being turned.
When will they learn? This govt has the worst environmental record of any govt that I can remember.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/03/green-groups-swallow-tricky-turnbull-line-hook-and-sinker/
Turnbull saying he is prepared to change the Fairwork legislation where he doesn’t agree with their rulings is the 1st big step back to Work Choices.
briefly @ #1477 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:30 am
I would prefer a G to a Lib so will preference accordingly.
Have any of the more numerate bludgers looked at how newspoll deals with prefs (which seem to be getting even more important)
daretotread @ #1492 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 11:41 am
This is true. The correct response is to recruit minor party support to Labor. PV support is far better to have than secondary support. Labor are completely correct to work to attract this support. As an aside, there is no G/Labor “war”. There is a contest. Labor will win it.