Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:

bludgertrack-2016-06-06

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 thoughts on “Newspoll: 50-50”

  1. so what does a facebook leaders debate look like exactly? and why has shorten signed up to this nonsense? why not ridicule it for what it is?

    and when do the labor ads begin?

  2. Not sure if BK has linked this but it is the single most devastating article on the current bleaching event I have come across. Particularly illuminating are some of the data relating to the incidence of Reef water reaching ever-increasing risk levels for coral bleaching and death.

    It is very, very depressing. I think it’s obvious now that there is no way back with AGW, we are fighting to arrest further detrimental effects, and even on that front we are batting 500 against the odds. 🙁

  3. Kevin 1 Seven, no one is saying we know better. Just that the road to government is narrow and risky, and when I hear the NBN dismissed as not a vote changer, it concerns me.

  4. FB debate? – you mean all the invective, defamation, cute one liners, cypticism, vacuous cheers, likes, dislikes, emoticons, upload photos, personal anecdote, sad witticisms and banal content that parades for typical FB messaging?

  5. Wow Paul Murray laying into Turnbull tonight. Makes a change.
    He points out that Shorten as so far done 25 media interviews to Turnbull’s seven.
    Does anyone know of this poll Murray speaks about that was released today revealing not a lot of support for the company tax cuts?

  7. Sometimes this blog descends into the realms of high farce.

    AS IF Labor would want to run away from the NBN as a campaign issue.

    The way some professional armchair critics here are going on you would think that the election is on June 11 and Labor had run their race not having had enough guts, apparently, to take the fight up to Turnbull over his maladroit, Malagile, Malinnovative, malevolent destruction of the greatest national infrastructure project of the 21st century!

    Thank god Labor election strategists don’t take instruction from the self-important commentators on this blog, otherwise they’d have blown their load already and be left with nothing more to do or say for the rest of the campaign.

    People get it already. THEY are telling politicians like Barnaby Joyce that the platitudinous guff about the NBN the Coalition are trying to retail is rubbish. They know how long they have had to wait to get their connection to the NBN on and how it isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be by the Coalition. They know how much it has cost the nation under the Coalition and how little they have got in return. If they don’t get it then they have cartoonists like David Rowe to tell them, or communities like Whirlpool or blogs like delimiter to go to and exchange information about it.

    What they care MORE about are the bread and butter issues that mean more to them than what might get up the nose of some middle class dilettante on a blog.

    That I know for a FACT.

    Apparently, though, because I am now considered as some sort of new low in the political pantheon, ‘a professional Labor supporter’, I am too one-eyed to know that Labor could be leading 60-40 over the Coalition if only they shouted from the rooftops every day that the NBN, as bastardised by Turnbull, is crap!

    Utter bollocks.

    The NBN will get it’s time in the sun. It will be at the appropriate time and thank god for the ‘professional Labor supporters’ who are running the campaign who will decide when that time is going to be.

  8. what 2 million follow to one timeline? who will host it? do they need to be friends? what about vast demography who will not touch the site?

  9. Labor supports a fibre NBN. They also have a strategy release polices one at a time, they have a lot less cash then the Libs so they have to get the most bang for the buck. Unlike Fizza.

  10. Zoomster:

    If Labor come out fighting on the NBN I will be surprised. They’ve barely touched on the subject for the last 3 years while Turnbull was happily destroying it when they could’ve been building the case over the years of Liberal numptyville when it comes to the economic, budgetary and technological advantages Labor’s policy offered.

  11. The Sky cohort are piling into truffles

    Bridget O’Flynn
    15m15 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Paul Murray spelling out communications with Turnbull re #peoplesforum. Said what PM said today = bullshit
    #ausvotes
    Embedded image

  13. I said in an earlier post that Murray would have a field day with Turnbull over the debate and will tomorrow, but he will still vote for him.

  15. Sachin Lara @ 1205,

    The information you require is from today’s Essential poll and said this:

    On one of the central issues of the campaign, the Coalition’s 10-year tax cut for multinationals and big companies, just 28% of voters approve of it, compared to 45% who disapprove of it — including 22% of voters who strongly disapprove of it. The disapprovers include 23% of Liberal voters.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/06/07/election-still-a-nailbiter-with-50-50-polling-crikey/

  16. Actually c@tmomma I think it was your comment that gave me the impression that you had been told it was not a vote changer.

  21. Frednk
    You don’t have to convince me, I know what you say to be true. Unfortunately, I’m not very representative of the average voter. They are the ones that need to be won over. The “Do it Once” bit is the issue. I reckon most voters believe it has already been done twice and this time makes three.

  23. shiftaling @ #1216 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    Actually c@tmomma I think it was your comment that gave me the impression that you had been told it was not a vote changer.

    That’s right. In and of itself, no. Just put yourself into the shoes of the classic swinging voter, a young family in the outer suburbs. Would a crappy NBN be the sort of issue you would change your vote over? Probably not.

    It would get you angry enough at the government to put it on your shit list and, added to the policies that are more important to you and your family, like being able to afford a house, health costs and education costs, it might serve to push you over the line into changing who you vote for. By itself though, I stand by the fact it is not a vote changer.

  25. The Guardian have a good photo wrap of Muhammed Ali. In it is a photo I have seen before – a classic with a whole bunch of very cool people and one sizzling hot Ronnie Spector.

    You may note that the Guardian, in listing some of those in the photo, have failed to mention Dionne Warwick and I am pretty sure Dee Dee Sharp too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2014/oct/30/muhammad-ali-25-best-photographs-cassius-clay-legendary-boxer#img-3

  26. Bolt and Price on 2GB were not very complimentary towards Turnball for backing out of the Sky news forum in Brisbane tomorrow night, and they think the Facebook debate thing is a joke.
    Not that they’re pro Shorten, far from it, they want Abbott back.

  28. Hey, at least all of this second guessing of ALP strategy is not as bad as Greens v Labor crap that normally clogs up each page…

  29. I’ve been asking people over the last 4 weeks, ‘What is the issue that is most important to you for this election?’ The two that are coming up repeatedly are
    * Jobs
    * Medicare.

    A job is the financial lifeline the family clings on to. This feeds into the education issue as well. Medicare is the other lifeline people care about and rely upon when and if they need it. They’ve seen what the American health system looks like and it scares them as much as any invasion by furriners in leaky boats.

  32. Patience, people, patience, I’m sure Labor’s got something left to say on the NBN, probably at the campaign launch in Penrith.
    How on earth will this debate thing work on Facebook anyway? Does Turnball even know? This smacks of some idea thought up by one of his venture capital mates.

  33. Boerwar
    I think it says; we borrowed the money and we lent the money at the same rate; so the net effect on the budget is zero.

  34. The ridiculous rag The Australian says Labors childcare package wasteful.If it was their mans policy it would be “Welcome relief for parents”. Wankers.

  35. The Lying Waffle spurning of Murdoch’s Brisbane organ may not end well. The Liberal candidate for Lilley just gave them some ammo

    Red-faced over ‘chauvinist’ candidate
    “FEMINIST” Malcolm Turnbull has refused to defend a Queensland “chauvinist” candidate who has labelled ironing and washing as “women’s work” and applauded his wife for being “well-behaved”.

  36. I’m about 859 steps from my nearest polling booth according to my iPhone pedometer. In order to reach my daily minimum of 10,000 steps, I’d have to walk to the polling booth from my home about – you know I always hated mathamantics at school…

  38. Apologies if the comments of the Liberal seeking to unseat Swannie have been posted already, but they are worth another chuckle

    “David Kingston, running against former deputy prime minister Wayne Swan, who holds the electorate of Lilley by a wafer-thin margin, logged his thoughts on online travel diary TravelPod during his one-month tour of four Australian states.

    Obtained by The Courier-Mail, Mr Kingston made comments about women’s chores, women’s work and how he was surprised a woman could drive a truck.

    “Ever since I was little I can remember my Mum and Dad used to put up HIS and HERS towels in the bathroom … from that I realised there were things designed for men and others designed for women,” he wrote.

    “And I reasoned that the pattern would extend to some other things in life too (such as chores).”

    Mr Kingston, an environmental engineer, published on his travel blog an example of “HIS/HERS activities from this trip:

    “Eg #1 – I hook up the caravan while Donna packs up inside the van.

    “Eg #2 – I take the boys for a shower while Donna cooks dinner.

    “Eg #3 – Donna checks into new caravan park receptions while I sit in the driver’s seat and close my eyes for 5 mins to relax.’’

  39. Remember those “Magic Eye”books/posters years ago. Well i got the Daily Terrograph version at the time. As i moved the paper slowly backwards and forwards from my eyes,all I could see was this great big pile of shit.

  41. And more from David Kingston. Where are you Fiona Nash?

    “Mr Kingston’s travel blog said even his wife thought he was a chauvinist. His musings included:

    ● “Donna likes to call me chauvinistic from time to time but I see it differently.”

    ● “Donna was very well ­behaved.”

    ● “Donna got busy with some women’s work – washing clothes.”

    ● “I got a bit of a shock when it was a woman who stepped out of the truck.”

    ● “What the housewives of Australia need to understand as they do the ironing is that … their own power bills when they switch the iron on are going to go up.”

  42. cupidstunt
    I used to fly qantas a lot. When crabbing along in the queue at the gate I would pick up both the tele and the oz, then crab 5m and with great fanfare shovel them both in the bin (immediately before the gate).
    I never got applause, but I did get several pats on the back with a ‘there there comrade’.

  43. If Bolt and Price are pushing for Abbott that’s far better than them saying nice thing about our Bill.If this face book debate turns out to be the fiasco I think it’s hasta la vista Mal don’t come back.

  44. Sky is obviously very upset that Turnbull will not attend their people’s forum. Co-sponsor the Courier Mail presumably is also unhappy. However Murdoch retains an interest via news.com.au co-sponsoring the Facebook event.

    How this will play out in the coverage by the CM and DT of the Brisbane event and the Facebook event will be interesting to watch.

  48. cupes
    No. I once dreamed they moved the bins to before the free papers part of the queue.

    And when I mentioned this story on here some time ago, some bright spark had a go at me for meaningless protests and not recycling.

  50. I saw a really neat campaign tool to support Weekend Penalty Rates on my travels today. It was a sticker as big as the side of a wheelie garbage bin, stuck onto it’s side saying, wtte, ‘The owner of this bin supports people earning more for working on weekends’. 🙂

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