We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …
UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.
UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.
Has anyone figured out if the royal baby still gets the woollen kangaroo?
Melissa Parke is pretty much understood to be in the Rudd camp, but she’s never been pinned down on it.
confessions
You won’t find anything from me putting Rudd on a pedestal.
Must say your primary school level asterisk is looking a bit sad though. Like wearing your daytime conference badge to an evening party
Speaking of who voted which way, is it known which six votes Bill Shorten supposedly took with him, when he switched sides?
Showson. Your gravatar came true too. Did you bet on that?
Thanks William. Think I’ll just lie to my wife then.
2850
crikey whitey
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
Confessions
JV is too gutless to answer my questions.
I’m here. No need to cling on to someone else’s skirts. What questions?
DN:
Sam Dastyari will front the NPC after the election and I’m betting his rallying words will be: ‘WE SAVED THE FURNITURE’ under the efforts of the current leader.
Good luck with that.
William
Did Parke get a gig? I certainly hope so
Fran I don’t think Rudd will be making too many deals with the Greens somehow 🙂
I don’t think anybody should be expecting any better than 52/48 in the next set of polls in favour of Abbott.
Hopefully in time if Rudd manages to campaign well, he can cut through and expose Abbott for his cons.
You never know, if the voters are smart enough to see through Abbott, Labor are in with a shot!
*night*
crikey whitey:
JV has nailed his colours to the Sussex St mast which is the current federal ALP which operates under a Whatever It Takes/Save The Senate (Trademark thingy) guise.
Have some sympathy for him.
Very interesting Morgan SMS poll state analysis
[Analysis by State
Special analysis of last night’s snap SMS Morgan Poll by State shows big swings to the ALP in Rudd’s home State of Queensland (ALP 51.5%, up 10.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%, down 10.5%) and in the strong mining States of Western Australia (ALP 41%, up 7% cf. LNP 59%, down 7%) and South Australia (ALP 50%, up 7% cf. L-NP 50%, down 7%).
However, in former Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s home State of Victoria, there was little change with the L-NP maintaining a slender lead (L-NP 50.5%, unchanged cf. ALP 49.5%, unchanged).
There were also swings to the ALP in New South Wales (ALP 47.5%, up 3.5% cf. L-NP 52.5%, down 3.5%) and Tasmania (ALP 63%, up 4% cf. L-NP 37%, down 4%).]
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-states-ages-june-27-2013-201306270610?utm_source&utm_medium=Hootsuite&utm_campaign=Social
[Sean Tisme
..
Didn’t achieve anything:
]
History will probable recall stuff like this:
Australia securing hosting duties for the G20 summit in 2014,
Australia winning a United Nations Security Council seat.
Carbon trading
NDIS
NBN
paid parental leave,
plain cigarette packs,
The apology to forced adoptees,
The creation of one million jobs despite a faltering global economy.
And ignore people like you.
alias
If the crochet kangaroo doesn’t make it, I think the royal family will be as happy with a signed Women’s Weekly JG knitting photo. That family loves images from the 1950s, their glory days.
confessions @ 2858
This will have been an entirely pointless exercise if that’s all that comes of it. What’s so great about having furniture when you’ve just stripped yourself naked and are about to end up out in the cold?
Sean Tisme:
[Gillard is the WORST Prime Minister Australia has ever had.]
Ludicrous. All things considered, by the standards set post-war, she was in the top half rather than the bottom half. If you allow for the uniqueness of minority government — something not seen since 1943 — and the active destabilisation campaign run by R**d, the fact that she got large parts of her and his agenda through is remarkable.
The country is in serviceable shape — with asset prices stable, unemployment and inflation low, debt manageable and far less proportionately than that of comparable regimes, interest rates low etc …
Australia has set in train some worthy things — carbon pricing, plain packaging, superannuation reform, the NBN, the NDIS, Gonski and raised pensions and the tax threshhold. Australians are mostly better off than they were three years ago. Again, there aren’t many countries that can claim that of their populations and indeed, there are a few Australian governments that could not claim that. SO by the usual criteria (not my own of course), she ought to get a pass.
Certainly she was a better PM than Howard, who basically achieved surpluses during a mining price boom and through selling off assets — recklessly in the case of Telstra and left the country with structural problems that were exposed when commodity prices came back and basically paid welfare to people who didn’t need it. She was also clearly a better PM than Fraser or MacMahon or Gorton or McEwen or Holt and arguably Menzies too. She was probably as good as Keating or Hawke and certainly better than Rudd.
I had some serious objections to her policies, but by the things that ought to impress conservatives she was by no means a bad PM. The conservatives Windsor and Oakeshott acknowledged as much.
[Has anyone figured out if the royal baby still gets the woollen kangaroo?]
The current leader is the master of populism. I’m sure he’s as we speak, working out a way to make the royal baby thing work in his favour.
Perhaps he’ll record on iPod all his Ockerisms such as ‘fair shake of the sauce bottle’, ‘happy little vegemite’ and sundy other vacuous remarks that simply say KEV!
[Gillard is the WORST Prime Minister Australia has ever had.]
Didn’t you get the memo? The Coalition’s line is now about what an inspiring leader she was and how bad it was that she was cut down.
[What’s so great about having furniture when you’ve just stripped yourself naked and are about to end up out in the cold?]
I guess we’re about to find out.
Amusing responses both JV and Confessions
@Sprocket/2862
That is interesting.
confessions
As a person who actually maintains a shop’s mast, I will decide who nails what to it and the circumstances under which it is nailed.
confessions@2616
This is idiotic.
The polls show you how well your message is being received and accepted by the electorate compared to that of your opponents.
If you are not doing well, then you can do something about it such as tweaking your message or, if that doesn’t work, replacing the messenger as has just occurred.
Without the polls you are flying blind.
Sprocket i make a prediction that Labor will be in a winning position with the polls next week.
Morgan poll just about shows that Labor will win election.
WA means little as Labor as Labor has few seats but Queensland means pick up seats and New South lose some. On this first poll it shows a close election next week polls may show Labor in front.
Also this is a thought i wonder if any Labor strategists thought that if Labor wins next election in a hung parliament and wee need the support of say two independents Katter and Bandt who would Katter support Rudd no doubt. With the other independents no longer contesting.
“9ship’s mast” We only have a small shop on board.
History will probable recall stuff like this:
Australia winning a UNSC seat. AND abstaining with their first vote
Carbon trading AFTER promising there would be none
NDIS WITHOUT any funding for the next five years
NBN Running overtime and overbudget
paid parental leave TAXING childless couples and singles to fund families
plain cigarette packs, TAXING addicts to help balance the budget
The apology to forced adoptees, —-DEMONISING the work of the church
The creation of one million jobs despite a faltering global economy. —-MOST of which go to 457s
O yes, Gillard really united us didn’t she?
[2814
Spray
Briefly,
Yes, I was only being flippant about Wyatt v Wyatt.
However I’m interested why you think Hasluck’s unwinnable. It was excruciatingly close in 2010, and I don’t think Uncle Ken has exactly set the world on fire since then.
If Labor has no chance in Hasluck, then they have no chance in the election as far as I can tell.
Have you factored in the Rudd miracle that we’ve been promised?]
I think it is a mistake to think KR will make a difference in WA. He is one of the reasons WA Labor has fared so badly. The KR/JG period has given WA voters the view – rightly or wrongly – that Labor is opposed to their economic interests. It is going to take a long while to rebuild.
[History will probable recall stuff like this:
Australia winning a UNSC seat. AND abstaining with their first vote]
In that case, history will have a longer memory than me.
[plain cigarette packs, TAXING addicts to help balance the budget]
You never struck me as being stupid in the past, Mr Squiggle. Has something gone amiss?
@Mr Squiggle/2876
I think people here are more crazy than the caucus.
p.s. NBN isn’t over budget nor running late.
Did you read the article Perth having 50 degree temperatures in the near future Mr Squiggle? But of course climate change does not exist.
Maybe you should read the articles about people in Alaska having to relocate because their livlihoods are melting away. But of course it is not real.
What achievements did Howard provide in his time in government? Other than gun reform and East Timor what did he do for 11 years…
[Showson. Your gravatar came true too. Did you bet on that?]
I only bet on the Melbourne Cup.
On that Morgan state breakdown, I’m calling “bollocks” on the Tasmanian sample even with the 9% MOE for sample size taken into account.
We all have to try out being stupid at least once, William. I practice regularly so as not to forget what it feels like!
Most of the jobs go to 457′ and the Coalition opposes the changes.
JV
Will apologise for my comment on your fortitude.
Going back, looks like my question did not make it to the site.
It was at about the 8 pm gobble mark, when I noticed loading was not working.
Certainly nothing to do with skirts.
confessions@2631
Your preferred option being to stick with a certain loser?
You are totally clueless.
Actually Kevin i thought it was odd as well. The recent State breakdown shows the opposite.
[2829
Tricot
By the way, what is this little frisson between Rudd and Julie Bishop?
They have been coffee mates for some months – especially when Rudd was in the depths of depression – but what what the little intimate hug in the House today?
Maybe my eyes deceived me.]
JB is attracted to powerful men. She can’t help herself, as many could attest.
One insight gained from the spill is that the disingenuous protestations of the ‘insiders’ that the factions are no more or are meaningless were revealed for the self-serving bs it is. Every commentator said if Shorten went over so would every one of his caucus minions under his control. And so it proved.
Crikey whitey
All is forgiven. 🙂
@Kevin/2883
Never seen you made that claim before.
[Australia winning a UNSC seat. AND abstaining with their first vote
In that case, history will have a longer memory than me.]
My favourite moment in relation to the UNSC seat was Joe Hockey’s reply TTE of “Hopefully the government can use the seat to finally stop the boats!”
sprocket
[There were also swings to the ALP in . . . Tasmania (ALP 63%, up 4% cf. L-NP 37%, down 4%).]
Tassie up 4% to 63!! Wow, haven’t we been told for months now, if not the last year, that Tassie is a wipeout for Labor. No seats. All gone. Kaput.
Must be the reason for the optimism at #2873 from Mrs Griffin and Mrs bemused (the two women in the Labor party who hated Gillard) who love to tell fess she’s not Labor:
[The polls show you how well your message is being received and accepted by the electorate compared to that of your opponents.]
Yeah, right.
j.v @ 2890 have you ever thought that the truth may lie between what you propose and what they say?
Julia will finish the Kanga. I recall Princess Di wearing with fondness a Jenny Kee jumper.
I have been watching the Queen’s Diamond Years. The some two thousand gifts for some wedding were numbered and annotated, even down to a wrapped lolly gifted by a little girl.
Even Kev couldn’t turn a knit into a spin.
Yeah, those Tasmanian numbers are way too high, especially relative to everyone else and considering that prior to this week, wisdom was leaning towards a complete obliteration of the ALP vote there. Small samples yield wild results (though I don’t deny, due to the probably low position Labor was in, that the bump there may be considerably higher).
It’s just one poll though, held over one euphoric night. As I said, it will take a few weeks to know what the true reaction to all this is (and, if there is a honeymoon, it will last a little longer than that)
[The apology to forced adoptees, —-DEMONISING the work of the church]
Take a hike, d@ckwit.
[2867
confessions
Has anyone figured out if the royal baby still gets the woollen kangaroo?
The current leader is the master of populism. I’m sure he’s as we speak, working out a way to make the royal baby thing work in his favour.
Perhaps he’ll record on iPod all his Ockerisms such as ‘fair shake of the sauce bottle’, ‘happy little vegemite’ and sundy other vacuous remarks that simply say KEV!]
very droll. He is a parody…and seems to like it that way.
[The apology to forced adoptees, —-DEMONISING the work of the church]
Gillard wrecked the Forced Adoptee’s Day by declaring a leadership challenge.
Why couldn’t she let the Stolen Children have their day without silly Labor nonsense?