We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …
UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.
UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.
OC
Are you for real?
So Shorten makes a decision (unless you are totally delusional) which is in the best interests of the party, and he’s accused of using a knife?
C’mon, that’s not a knife!
TP
[Gillard, Australia and Labor has most likely dodge a bullet by replacing Gillard.]
I’d say they’ve dodged a bullet by stepping into a poisonous swamp.
Political discussion in the office today was pretty full and frank. The mood was that Labor deserve to be punished for being a rabble for so long – there is no gaurantee that it won’t continue in another guise.
Satire antenna not tuned in tonight, centre?
@TP/2800
That’s politics for you.
Jackol
Any number of weeks prior to this one
@William,
I’m assuming Bludger will be updated after the weekend?
j.v. @ 2806
Oh come now, how far back are you going to go? Be specific :P.
In essence, the big picture is that Rudd has unfinished business with the Australian electorate and they have unfinished business with him.
The resentment that JG created – and the party too – was that they took away the right – as believed by many of the electorate, to chose or not chose who they wanted for their PM by the pole-axing of Rudd three years ago.
I know the purists will say, as John Howard did, the electorate chooses the party but the party chooses the leader (by definition the PM) but the unsophisticated view of Joe Voting Public was that when they vote for a local member, they are, by proxy voting for the leader of the winning party to be their PM. That was Rudd in 2007.
As the Emperor Barnett said this evening, we are now down to the Grand Final between Rudd and Abbott.
This is the competition the electorate has really wanted for nearly 4 years and they are happy to get it.
There is no certainty for a win for either protagonists as Abbott has a stench about him that is such that even his own side can’t avoid the smell. He is not popular, never has been and never will be.
However, the $64 question is whether Rudd can bury Abbott with his own saddle bags fairly heavily laden.
Fran
What’s going to happen to the Greens when Rudd expedites your carbon tax to an ETS?
Are the Greens going to continue to campaign for the carbon tax? 😆
Dead-set the Greens have peaked. Lucky to obtain 8% of the vote on election day 😀
[Political discussion in the office today was pretty full and frank. The mood was that Labor deserve to be punished for being a rabble for so long – there is no gaurantee that it won’t continue in another guise.]
Same at my workplace, how could you vote for them.
Blokes were saying we now have a choice between the blond hair pyschopath and the black hair pyschopath.
ladies were appalled at rudds victory speech where he tipped a bucket on Gillard for ignoring families when PM, most saw it as a deliberate dig at her single barren status.
One of that sad things for me is that refugee policy can’t be reversed this close to the election, because the Gillard cabal made punishment for refugees bipartisan. So hard to come back from there.p
TP 2800 a dime dozen assumtions and hunches in that post.
Briefly,
Yes, I was only being flippant about Wyatt v Wyatt.
However I’m interested why you think Hasluck’s unwinnable. It was excruciatingly close in 2010, and I don’t think Uncle Ken has exactly set the world on fire since then.
If Labor has no chance in Hasluck, then they have no chance in the election as far as I can tell.
Have you factored in the Rudd miracle that we’ve been promised?
It’s updated every Tuesday or Wednesday, Zoidlord.
[Political discussion in the office today was pretty full and frank. The mood was that Labor deserve to be punished for being a rabble for so long – there is no gaurantee that it won’t continue in another guise.]
People who conduct full and frank discussions of politics in their offices don’t decide elections.
DisplayName
I thought the last occasion was a couple of days ago when he had a go at me about my ignorance of private party business on the leadership, but I don’t keep his posts in my knapsack. 🙂
[However I’m interested why you think Hasluck’s unwinnable. It was excruciatingly close in 2010, and I don’t think Uncle Ken has exactly set the world on fire since then.]
You didn’t find his argument that Julia Gillard didn’t understand asylum seekers issues properly because she isn’t Aboriginal a convincing argument?
[People who conduct full and frank discussions of politics in their offices don’t decide elections.]
They do if they live in marginal seats.
[One of that sad things for me is that refugee policy can’t be reversed this close to the election, because the Gillard cabal made punishment for refugees bipartisan.]
Fail.
Labor has the supposed rightful leader back in the seat who is going to make all those dead flowers smell of roses again.
Don’t tell me the R*dd Cult are experiencing their first twinges of doubt about his supposedly authoritative rhetoric? 😮
[They do if they live in marginal seats.]
Not true at all. People so interested in politics they start talking about it in the office are not the people who decide elections.
You had to love Rudd’s contemptuous little civics lesson to Abbott when the Opposition leader was bleating on about an election date.
It’s all there in a document called the Constitution, said Rudd, as Abbott shrivelled ever smaller in his chair. You’ll find the election will be held in accordance with the Constitution.
Classic.
Whatever his intentions regarding the election date, Rudd clearly understands his strategic advantage in keeping the LNP guessing. Every day they are denied this detail is a day that sets back their detailed campaign planning – and they face the uncertainty of whether to ditch the existing planning for Sept 14.
Rudd will enjoy springing his surprise as late as possible.
jaundiced view
“Where’s Psephos? We need the insider’s secrets on the leadership change that wasn’t on according to him, except in the minds of mere non-member outsider idiots.”
Actually he was really on the fence as to whether it would happen ornot. He replied to a post of mine quoting Rudd’s “under no circumstances” thing by saying if I believed that I was naive.
He turned out to be right of course and I recall several other posts of his in the last fortnight that implied he thought there may be a spill.
So stop being so full of yourself, I very much doubt he’s not posting because he’s afraid of you or whatever it is you’re implying.
Zoidlord@2796
Yes, I have heard this is the case between Barnett and Rudd, but is it just because Barnett reckons he can get more money out of Rudd?
The big thing is that Rudd has the measure of Abbott and a week is a long time in politics – trite but true.
Within a few days the Canberra caravan and circus will have packed up and the troops will all have gone home. To all intents and purposes Rudd will have the clean air that many have said he needs and that which he deprived Gillard of.
Voter memories a short and if it looks the scales are being tipped against Abbott or he starts to unravel, Rudd could likely win.
On the other hand with a high risk individual like Rudd, the unravelling could very well be by him, though by what I saw today, he looked as though he relished his resurrection and has no intention of being lame duck – a problem which I think would have beset JG if she had continued as leader.
There is no some doubt in the minds of the hard heads on the Liberal side and they will make mistakes.
It’s so funny watching the Ruddists on here resume the role of spinning, revisionism and fearmongering that they were berating the Gillardists for up until yesterday.
It’s also funny watching the Gillardists who lectured about party unity and rallying behind your leader now being completely defiant.
Addressing another life.
West Coast v Essendon. Playing tonight at William’s place.
West Coast look the goods.
@William,
Thanks 🙂
Gillard is the WORST Prime Minister Australia has ever had.
Didn’t achieve anything, rode on the coat tails of the Greens and Rudd’s success, destroyed the live cattle industry, wrecked Australia’s border protection, couldn’t post a single budget surplus despite saying she would over 50 seperate times, ripped the Labor Party apart and bungled and botched everything she touched.
Thank you Labor for at least getting rid of this useless PM but it should have been left to the voters to punish her…
By the way, what is this little frisson between Rudd and Julie Bishop?
They have been coffee mates for some months – especially when Rudd was in the depths of depression – but what what the little intimate hug in the House today?
Maybe my eyes deceived me.
[Don’t tell me the R*dd Cult are experiencing their first twinges of doubt about his supposedly authoritative rhetoric? ]
This never had anything to do with the proposition that Rudd is a savior. It was simply the best option given the terrible situation the party was in with Gillard as leader.
I am still expect Labor to lose the election, but I think they will get around 65 seats compared to around 45 if Gillard had been leader.
[Not true at all. People so interested in politics they start talking about it in the office are not the people who decide elections.]
We rarely discuss politics in the office but the last 24 hours have been exceptional – hardly surprising that politics was discussed.
Carey Moore
This says everything you need to know about the split between the Rudd and Gillard supporters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY&hl=en-GB&gl=SG
confessions
You should be directing that at cultists. My view, as you know, encompasses the direction of the party – with the hope that the recent hollow pragmatism will be replaced with some spine. The rest is detail.
Sean Tisme
You’re much more believable when you return to form with hysterical Coalition talking points instead of deigning to give the ALP and its supporters some of your patented ‘advice’.
Does anyone on here know which camp Melissa Parke was in yesterday?
We live in the Freo electorate and my wife’s vote is 100% conditional on whether Parke supported Gillard or not.
My understanding is that in previous challenges Parke refused to reveal her allegiances. At the moment that’s not good enough to appease my (fuming) better half.
Carey Moore@2825
The right people for the right job for the right circumstance!
[It’s all there in a document called the Constitution, said Rudd, as Abbott shrivelled ever smaller in his chair. You’ll find the election will be held in accordance with the Constitution.]
alias
It was like a professional PM v a high school wangker 😆
[It’s also funny watching the Gillardists who lectured about party unity and rallying behind your leader now being completely defiant.]
Umm except that we are lamenting THE DAY AFTER, not 3 years after the event.
Jeez, can the R*dd Cult put a lid on their hubris for 48 hours?! Obviously not.
Centre:
[What’s going to happen to the Greens when Rudd expedites your carbon tax to an ETS?]
a) it’s not a carbon tax
b) the pricing mechanism is owned jointly by your party
c) When the fixed price phase ends and morphs to an ETS we will be as OK as we ever were.
[Are the Greens going to continue to campaign for the carbon tax?]
It seems improbable. Strictly speaking, although the language was sometimes loose, we campaigned for a price on emissions. Had the ALP in 2009 adopted Garnaut more or less exactly and not turned the mechanism into a giant polluter porkbarrell, precisely so we wouldn’t back it, we’d have supported it.
[Dead-set the Greens have peaked. Lucky to obtain 8% of the vote on election day.]
Maybe. It’s too early to say. Whether our vote is 8% or 12% or 6% is much less important than being right about policy, which, unlike your party, we mostly are.
[Whatever his intentions regarding the election date, Rudd clearly understands his strategic advantage in keeping the LNP guessing. Every day they are denied this detail is a day that sets back their detailed campaign planning – and they face the uncertainty of whether to ditch the existing planning for Sept 14.]
Yes it is quite good that Labor has immediately made all the direct mail material with Gillard on it late.
@Tricot/2824
That’s probably the case.
But maybe there is something else to it, who knows 🙂
Ignore him absolutetwaddle. Everybody else is.
alias, pretty much.
FWIW, it’s going to take a few days for the dust to settle and the wounds to heal, so patience is well advised.
Also, we’re without any truly meaningful indicators of whether or not this was a good move. It’s going to take a few weeks to quantify that. And, even then, it’s not guaranteed it will translate into an election win.
Labor and its supporters need to treat it like they are in the exact same polling position as before but have been given a chance to reclaim the lost ground. Nothing can be taken for granted this time!
jv:
Not surprised to see you doing bob-each-wayism after your R*ddism of the past few months.
Whatever It Takes, eh? Even if it means turning a blind eye to the awkward issue of boats.
confessions
What, you’re saying Gillardists lack the stamina of Ruddists?
DisplayName
“What, you’re saying Gillardists lack the stamina of Ruddists?”
Probably. Life’s too short.
Sean Tisme@2828
You’re taking the proverbial piss aren’t you?
Billy McMahon, John Gorton and Harold Holt would all rate as memorably – that is, within living memory – PMs who would win hands down in “worst PM” competitions.
I think this topic was done to death months ago here.
John Howard – he who took as to war in Iraq and squandered the first mining boom, would also rate were it not for the fact that he actually survived a long time.
That he lost his government and his seat at the same time says it all.
Gillard will go on to be a Labor Icon and history will treat her very kindly.
Of course there are 60 year-old Liberal supporters who still claim Gough Whitlam ruined Australia for all time, when I know for sure it was Malcolm Frazer.
Centre
You called the right date 26th June for Ruddstoration. You should have put a bet on!!
absolute@2846 I know I have trouble holding grudges past a day :).
Confessions
JV is too gutless to answer my questions.