Rudd 57, Gillard 45

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.

UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,091 comments on “Rudd 57, Gillard 45”

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  1. Talkback radio here in adelaide is still anti-alp, with the chaos aspect of the change over being discussed.

    It is just a transfer of hate. Well, at least the hatred is now directed at someone whom I don’t give a stuff about. Glass half full and all that.

  2. [Does anyone know how many seats Labor would win in Queensland if a swing of that size was repeated at the election?]

    If that is the 2PP, and the swing is universal, that’s 10 seats, I believe.

  3. [ No-one should be too critical of TP for ancient affiliations. Gillard’s were excused as youthful idiocy. ]
    wouldn’t you have fun if Gillard was an outspoken racist who gave the country double digit inflation unemployment and interest rates JV

  6. Puff. Which talkback are you tuned to. I stopped last night after 5AA disgusting. Enough research, I thought.

  8. Try this.

    Dan Lepard’s coconut strawberry creams recipe

    Flamboyant, but only gently sweet, these biscuits are real old-fashioned charmers.

    The Guardian, Saturday 3 April 2010

    The Dame Hilda Bracket of bickies: flamboyant and gently sweet. Try to find a good, thick preserve, rather than a syrupy one; and use raspberry or cherry jam instead, if you prefer. If the dough is hard to squeeze through the piping bag, knead it through the cloth to soften it first.

    250g unsalted butter, softened
    225g icing sugar
    1 egg white
    1 tsp vanilla extract
    75g desiccated coconut
    200g plain flour
    ¼ tsp baking powder
    75g reduced-sugar strawberry jam

    Beat together 175g butter and 75g icing sugar until soft and fluffy, then beat in the egg white, vanilla and coconut. Beat in the flour and baking powder until just combined.

    Using a star nozzle, pipe swirls on to a tray lined with nonstick paper (or spoon into rounded teaspoon-sized balls), then bake at 180C (160C fan-assisted)/350F/gas mark 4 for 15 minutes. Leave to cool on the tray, then beat the remaining 75g butter until soft and almost whipped – an electric beater makes this easy, and a warm mixing bowl helps, too. Add the jam and beat again until smooth and creamy. Finally, beat in the remaining 150g of icing sugar, about a third at a time, and mix until smooth and light. Spoon a good dollop of icing on the base of one biscuit, press the base of another against it and wiggle the biscuits so the icing splurges at the edges.

    danlepard.com/guardian

  9. [Talkback radio here in adelaide is still anti-alp, with the chaos aspect of the change over being discussed.]
    Ha! Yeah right mate, talk back radio is always great for the ALP.

  11. ShowsOn

    Charming. As well. Et tu, Jason Clare. Thought he looked rather uncomfortable today in Parliament. I should have focussed on the others.

  14. 3062&3

    I shall re-report this now you are here.

    My, Crikey specific, problem of refreshes taking me to the top of the page (or my last comment) every time I refresh has now, finally, disappeared (for no apparent reason).

  17. Get ready, William.

    The likelihood of Perth sweating through a 50 degree summer sometime in the future is “quite high,” according to new research released on Thursday.

    Man-made climate change is likely to have played a role in the “extreme summer” experienced this year, and it will become even more frequent and severe around the country, a study led by the University of Melbourne showed.

    Study co-author David Karoly said the chance of Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide eventually experiencing 50 degree days “are quite high” due to ongoing climate change.

    Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-could-sweat-through-50-degree-summers-20130627-2ozhd.html#ixzz2XQpmHZaP

  18. At long last voters have a choice, but what is it?

    Date June 28, 2013 Waleed Aly

    Do you have that hollow feeling, too? That feeling that after months, no, years of build-up, after the arrival of the final climax, there is something oddly underwhelming about the fact that Kevin Rudd has finally reclaimed the throne? It’s not that this isn’t a momentous development. It is. But after the incessant focus on whether or not this would happen, we’re left with the question so many Labor MPs couldn’t answer while they were vainly denying anything was going on: what exactly was that about?

    But in policy terms, Gillard has the more impressive record. Rudd’s time in office was frantic, but barren. Beyond his great symbolic moments (the apology and Kyoto), his biggest initiatives like the emissions trading scheme fell over and his mining tax, fell over. His education revolution amounted to little – far less than Gillard’s Gonski-inspired initiative. Gillard has her name on the national disability insurance scheme, the carbon tax and a newly negotiated, if deeply flawed, mining tax. She achieved a health-funding deal with the states where Rudd couldn’t. She has established a landmark wide-ranging royal commission on child sex abuse. Some of these (health, mining tax) were renewed, compromised versions of Rudd’s failures. Others, (carbon tax, royal commission) were not her idea and were forced upon her, either by public pressure or political arrangements. Still, her legacy is far more concrete than Rudd’s.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/at-long-last-voters-have-a-choice-but-what-is-it-20130627-2ozs3.html#ixzz2XQsAlUDU

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/at-long-last-voters-have-a-choice-but-what-is-it-20130627-2ozs3.html#ixzz2XQrblQUu

  19. Has anyone seen my little fishy-mammal mate?

    Any chance of a count of posts by frequent bloggers who said anyone suggesting Labor could change to Rudd were imbeciles?

  20. Puff @ 3051

    I assume you are refering to Matt and Dave on 891 who are still being smart asses or 5AA which I never listen to ?

  21. William

    Having not been here much for several years I thought last night you had “let things go” a bit. But today I decided that these sort of days are pretty rare in politics so letting people vent and let off steam was probably a good idea.

    I am amazed at your ability to keep such an intense focus on politics – it is fantastic for those of us who can’t dedicate so much energy to this all the time.

  22. Certainly you can be treated to this by no means exhaustive selection of old favourites:

    [It looks like if #Ruddstoration – @KRUDD wont be PM but a LOTO , bwahahahahahahahaha ]

    [There you are: Tony Windsor tells PM he’d support no confidence if Rudd returns. – Memo to #Ruddanistas – PM Abbott – blood on your hands ]

    [Diog, bwahahahahahaha, there are $500 reasons they wont]

    [Diog, like they say in the classic, i rather be in my shoes than yours bwahahahahahsaha 😀 ]

    [Memo to the Tree Surgeon: PM Gillard ‘I will certainly be leading Labor at the next election.’ Tough Titties]

    [Fucking Diog is (1) Bloody jealous of them BISONs (2) He is losing $500 bet with me Tough titties]

    [Diog, i know you are bleeding for the $500 you will be losing, tough titties]

    [Is bloody Diog still whinging here day and night over losing $500? 👿 ]

    [Diog, just get your $500 ready and stop crying “I Want Mummy”]

    [Diog, as you have lost your $500, it looks like you lost on Thommo as well. You aint got any thing to stand on. Stick to pruning the branches]

    [I see the traitorous painful doggys are out barking, woof, woof, woof. suck it up sunshine. and Diog, get your $500 ready comrade 😀 ]

    [This blog is now a joke]

  23. Thank you, RR. There’s a limit to how much a moderator can realistically achieve on a site like this in having discussion follow a particular course, especially on days like yesterday.

  24. William I think you do a great “non-interventionist” job with very few ever really called out for misdemeanours.

    Following the “comments” sections of CNN, USA Today, HuffPost, BBC – even if they are “social media logins” they start low and go lower and lower and lower often becoming unreadable and totally pointless.

    It restores my faith in the PB community.

  25. MattnDave are nothing compared to 5AA.

    At least the afternoon person declares her bias.

    As for Bob Francid, somewhat later.

  26. Saw most of Stephen Smith’s valedictory speech today. having lived in Alice Springs and Darwin I always feel for the Federal MPs who have to travel furthest to Canberra, especially if they are Ministers or Shadow Ministers.

    It is an added burden to what is already a pretty awful balancing act for them and their families. Thus I am never surprised when MPs decide to retire in their early fifties. They usually just want to have some “normal” life before they die, and do something different.

    So vale Stephen Smith – many years ago I thought that maybe one day you would be Prime Minister – the people I know who work in Defence have always respected you.

  27. as anyone seen or heard about my old sparring partner GG
    He was the most ardentof all the Gillardista and scorned me and others when we said a Ruddsotration was possible

    Where are you GG !!

  28. ‘So vale Stephen Smith – many years ago I thought that maybe one day you would be Prime Minister’

    As did I. Rocket Rocket.

    Though adieu works for me.

  33. So when we get thje first of the other major polls..Fairfax/The Oz etc ?
    any ideas ?
    they must be all busy now their polling

  35. Having quickly tallied the seat changes using last night’s Morgan poll to give the swing (it also gave regional swings), I have produced the following result:

    NSW, Coalition +3, Lab -3
    VIC , Coalition, +5, Lab -5
    Q’land Coalition -11, Lab +11
    WA NC
    SA NC
    TAS NC
    That would give Rudd’s ALP a net gain of 3 seats since 2010 and probably a majority, thanks to the huge swing in Queensland more than offsetting losses in NSW and Victoria, but still could go either way

  36. Looks as though I have the blog to myself now, where are you MikeH?
    I was wondering how the PM was going to fill all the vacancies in the cabinet? Bit hard to fill the shoes of Stephen S Craig E plus the others including Julia Wayne etc I assume they have been filled eg Bowen as Treasurer, BBC evidently according to my friends sad PMRudd was having a hard time filling the vacancies? BBC also ran a very fair and balanced article on Julia Gillard last night and what she has put up with MSM and shockjocks etc my friends who I had lunch with today were astounded

  39. Let me give a potted summary of the last six-seven years in Australian politics.
    1. Rudd has no strong factional support in the ALP; he does not kneel to the union powerbrokers. But he is a significant political talent, particularly his ability to win votes;
    2. So the powerbrokers used him to win the 2007 election;
    3. Then, as soon as they could, they deposed him and put in a union rep;
    4. Then the tribal elders spent a lot of time declaring him unclean (that is, not a member of the tribe – a foreign element who should be expelled);
    3. However, the union rep didn’t do too good, and now we’re back to Kevin who, hopefully, will fulfill his historic mission to revitalise and broaden the base of the labor party.
    4. No wonder so many on this blog hate him.

  40. 3087 – No I did not, unless you count stealing from yourself, as I put it up on pb.com in the first place!!

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