Victoria’s Electoral Boundaries Commission has unveiled draft boundaries for its very long awaited state redistribution.
The attention of most politics watchers will be firmly elsewhere, but Victoria’s Electoral Boundaries Commission has unveiled draft boundaries for its very long awaited state redistribution. I’m a bit too distracted to give them any consideration just at the moment, but you can view them here.
UPDATE: Antony Green has more.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Very interesting, significant changes to the regions with the Macedon district losing Sunbury but gaining Daylesford. Probably net no change for outcomes.
I don’t know what the VEC is using to power their website, 486 with a 14.4kb modem…4.1kb a sec for a 3mb file…
Not just Doncaster, looks like Mitcham has vanished as well. Absorbed into Forest Hill, Box Hill and Ringwood.
Kennett’s pork-barrel that signalled the beginning of the end was the re-paving of the Springvale Road level crossing. It did no good as Tony Robinson won the by-election in 1997 (only unseated at the last poll in 2010). The level crossing has now gone (replaced by an overpass and re-located station), and so has the district.
I think you’d say Mitcham had been renamed Ringwood, whereas Doncaster has entirely disappeared.
[I don’t know what the VEC is using to power their website, 486 with a 14.4kb modem…4.1kb a sec for a 3mb file…]
At least I am not the only one having trouble.
Dr.FMcS,
I’m having the same problem, it’s taking about an hour to download the Eastern Victoria Region file, and I know it isn’t at my end for once. Still, should be interesting. Not as much of the outer East has come into the Eastern Metropolitan region as I was expecting, though a lot of Monbulk has gone into Bayswater.
Ophuph Hucksake,
Interesting considering the Mitcham Road level crossing should be eliminated by the end of this term of Parliament then.
They certainly saved up the changes for this one, love to see an analysis but I get the liberals will scream blue murder, Doncaster, Rodney gone, new Werribe, Sunbury to favour the ALP…could be a very exciting election
Do proposed borders tend to change much in the consultation process? Or is what happened with the Victorian federal redistribution the exception?
Ah, thank you William. The sideways orientation of the PDF files (and their looong download time) made direct comparison a bit difficult.
Northern Metro has lost Ivanhoe, its only Liberal winnable seat to Eastern Metro, to be replaced by safe ALP Pascoe Vale. This in bad for Craig Ondarchie, the Northern Metro 2nd Liberal MLC. If the State Government transparently governing for the other side of the Yarra has not doomed him, then this could.
I do not know how the movement of the outer fringe has effected the margins though. I also do knot know what the loss of Pascoe Vale has done for the Libs in Western Metro.
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If you are in Achrobat Reader then right click and then select “rotate clockwise”. This fixes the orientation on the 6 that are not North up.
Antony Green seems to have calculated that the ALP loses a seat, as do the Nationals, and the Liberals gain two. ALP notionally “loses” Monbulk and Ripon and the Nats gain Seymour off the Liberals. New seat of Ballarat goes to the Liberals, however there are new seats of Sydenham and Werribee and Sunbury. National seat of Rodney abolished and the new seat of Eildon sucks much of the Labor surplus vote our of Yan Yean.
If these boundaries are to stand, the next election will be largely fought in Geelong and Ballarat – Bellarine and Geelong are more marginal, and the Ballarat seats now extremely marginal. The danger for the ALP will be that all of these seats are held by members who won in 1999 and 2002 – should any of them pull the pin, then they are all very much in play. The same has to be said of Ripon also as Joe Helper was elected in 1999.
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The regional cities, like the Legislative Council, seem to have been forgotten by the Liberals in their approach to providing transport for Melbourne.
There is the RRL delays which can be used against the Liberals.
The decision to build the eastern half of the road tunnel first is, despite both halves of the tunnel being money hungry steps in the wrong direction, can be used to beat the liberals over the head with in Geelong and to a lesser extent Ballarat.
Labor should be quite pleased with this. There are five seats with Liberal majorities under 1%, two of them with sitting Labor members.