We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …
UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.
UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.
I am sure how reliable Palmer is as a source. I’d be happy if there was someone to confirm the alleged begging.
If Ben wants to go Federal, it would be more fun to watch if he went up against his uncle in Hasluck!
Wasn’t there scuttlebutt recently about Smith seeking a career in state politics?
Matt Keogh would be a good candidate, though he is hardly the next generation. Perth is going to be a very tough assignment for anyone.
Oakeshott Country
[Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 8:41 pm | PERMALINK
My memory of “whatever it takes” is what Richardson told Bruvver Ducker he would do to unseat Geoff Cahill as general secretary of the NSW ALP. The result has been 38 years of corruption in which each successive general secretary chooses an equally odious successor.
It is not something to be proud of.]
Very difficult to disagree with that story of succession. Up there with the Habsburg-Windsors, and Short-Cons, and similarly indefensible.
[My view is Gillard won. No one will ever know if she could have pulled the election off or not, she got three years and she used them. She will now become a martyr and a saint in the eyes of many. Rudd will just be another other; forgotten by History..]
Oh geez… Martyr?saint? I am just waiting now for the first miracle.
Davidwh
Does Clive lie?
I would be interested if they could disprove it.
Remember, Abbott and Hanson.
[ Have you not stepped outside and spoken to any Australian voters over the last couple of years? ]
Yes, of course. And I met a lot of people who liked Gillard.
[ It is not that they were angry with her but might grudgingly decide to vote for her anyway, they were actively repulsed whenever she came on the TV, they didn’t listen to anything she said, they didn’t trust anything she said and she was a lying backstabber in their eyes who screwed up everything she touched. ]
This is simply bullshit. Yes, there are people loathed her. But the majority didn’t seem to care one way or the other – she was just another politician to them, who they either disliked on principle, or had some vague “unease” about because they heard a lot of negative things about her in the press. However there were a lot who thought she was pretty good.
You must live in a very narrow world if you met only the former, and none of the latter.
[ I know you loved her and thought she was wonderful, but the hard reality is the vast majority of the voting public held the exact opposite view to you. ]
I admired her – as I originally did Rudd, and I think that without Rudd constantly destabilizing her, most Labor voters would have ended up voting for her, and also not a few liberals. Even here on PB there are a few conservative leaning posters who would have voted for her over Abbott.
Of course we will never know now, and you are entitled to your own opinion. But that’s all it is.
[Very difficult to disagree with that story of succession. Up there with the Habsburg-Windsors, and Short-Cons, and similarly indefensible.]
Conroy supported Gillard.
Shorten supported Rudd.
Back in December Palmer confirmed a meeting with Hockey and Brough in April said it was to discuss Brough’s election and he had no knowledge of the Slipper matter. So Palmer is either telling porkies now or he was in December.
The current leader will pick his front bench tomorrow, according to reports. Will be interested to see who remains and who is dispensed with. Am expecting Fitzgibbon to get a promotion after his spear carrying for the current leader.
The mind boggles as to who else will be elevated.
[ Oh geez… Martyr?saint? I am just waiting now for the first miracle. ]
Well, if Labor were to win the election, I think you could class that as a miracle – and it would be to a large extent due to Gillard.
P1
All part of the rich tapestry of labor history. Another saint another rat….still he’s our rat now
We’re still at the wake following a political death. The eulogies will stop soon. Then we can get back to the reality of keeping the Senate out of the hands of that cheap bully running the Libs. As good as the political deceased was at some things, she wasn’t good at that.
[ The current leader will pick his front bench tomorrow, according to reports. ]
Not so much a “bench” as a “footstool”.
SNIP
Player One@2456
Doubt we ever had it.
You can’t go around calling people corrupt, Kinkajou.
[ All part of the rich tapestry of labor history. Another saint another rat….still he’s our rat now ]
Nah! Not mine! I supported him once, but will not do so again.
[Conroy supported Gillard.
Shorten supported Rudd.]
Shorten is much closer to the PMship with Rudd as leader. With Rudd the loss is more likely to be manageable and Labor could be back in 3 or 6 years with Shorten at helm. With Gillard at the helm, the scale of the devastation and recrimination would have been insurmountable in Bills political lifetime.
Janelle Saffin must surely be in for a minor ministry and what of Ursula Stephens?
Wow not much on the PM website now.
[2752
Spray
If Ben wants to go Federal, it would be more fun to watch if he went up against his uncle in Hasluck!]
WA Labor has next to no chance of regaining Hasluck while KR (or JG) hold office. Ben had better hold on to the seat he’s got in the State Parliament, where Labor have a tenuous hold.
I’m of the view that a PM might be better the second time round.
The time on the sidelines contributes to the shaping of a more experienced and wiser PM.
😯
Like many top class in their field, they learn big time from past experience and mistakes.
😎
[Am expecting Fitzgibbon to get a promotion after his spear carrying for the current leader.]
It would be highly amusing if he was left on the backbench.
Withdrawn – it was qualified but happy to remove
Bemused
We’re a draw.
I was right about the Greens, you were right about Rudd.
😛
BBS @ 2756
Didn’t you hear? She created some socks out of wool and two sticks. A miracle if ever I saw one!
[/sarcasm]
Gillard’s chance of wining the election were measured I think at 1%.
The most probable result would have been a comfortable loss. Then the reasonable likelihood of being thrashed, and there was the real prospect of being obliterated.
It would have been totally unconscionable of Labor to actually not change leaders under those circumstances so close to an election.
In the end Gillard benefits highly from being replaced. She avoids blame for a loss and or thrashing she would have bought about, and can instead have a legacy on policy instead the person who with her supporters destroyed Labor.
Gillard, Australia and Labor has most likely dodge a bullet by replacing Gillard.
[Well, if Labor were to win the election, I think you could class that as a miracle – and it would be to a large extent due to Gillard.]
By calling on the vote?
ShowsOn
[Conroy supported Gillard.
Shorten supported Rudd.]
I know, at 20 minutes to midnight with oblivion for Bill Bill Bill. A last minute intra-factional mini split , in Bill’s favour.
2768
William Bowe
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 9:24 pm | PERMALINK
You can’t go around calling people corrupt, Kinkajou.
I guess it is permissable to call someone who has been convicted corrupt but what of someone who looks corrupt before ICAC or someone who came to an arrangement with the ATO?
@2764 JV
Spot on. This is a wake. And quite appropriate too. We as a society do not really have established mechanisms to deal with these sort of emotions. And who did not feel quite emotional when Oakschott spoke about his SMS to Julia Gillard in the party room? No matter what your allegiances, it was moving stuff to see a PM depart with such dignity and grace.
However, it belittles JG’s legacy if the response is to get into name-calling and bitter tirades around here.
I’ll bet if she somehow magically signed on here, she would urge the naysayers to get on with the business of ensuring Abbott does not become PM.
And with JG quitting politics there is no reason that this wake should drag on much beyond this week.
[ Doubt we ever had it. ]
Doubt all you like, bemused – it’s perfectly true. And I have spoken to others today whose votes the ALP had but has now lost. Exactly how many remains to be seen.
I also note you seem to be back to your old annoying habit of quoting entire posts with just some stupid one liner of your own appended.
[Shorten is much closer to the PMship with Rudd as leader. With Rudd the loss is more likely to be manageable and Labor could be back in 3 or 6 years with Shorten at helm. With Gillard at the helm, the scale of the devastation and recrimination would have been insurmountable in Bills political lifetime.]
I don’t really think yesterday’s ballot makes it easier for Shorten to become leader in the longer term. In fact it could harm his chances because a lot of the AWU/Right will be pissed off with him for a long time.
Kinkajou, rat he may be. But the alternative is one my family and I cannot risk.
Remarkably, both of my children will have been born with Rudd as PM, one in each of his separate tenures in the job. My daughter was less than a week old when Gillard became PM, my son will be born any day now. Weird, isn’t it?
Naturally, you’ve going to call him Kevin, AJ Canberra?
[Doubt all you like, bemused – it’s perfectly true. And I have spoken to others today whose votes the ALP had but has now lost. Exactly how many remains to be seen.]
This people are overwhelmingly outnumbered by those that wanted to vote Labor but wouldn’t do so while Gillard was leader.
Where’s Psephos? We need the insider’s secrets on the leadership change that wasn’t on according to him, except in the minds of mere non-member outsider idiots.
In a two horse race, of course either party can win.
How many times, and right at the start of an election campaign, has Labor been in the lead by 4-5 points but as the campaign develops so the gap narrows and, on so many occasions, Labor goes on to lose?
It will be a tough job but not an impossible one.
If Rudd does get the bit between his teeth and the ball starts to bounce awkwardly for the conservatives, this election could be the sweetest of all for Labor. Back from the dead lead by a political corpse not quite buried.
It will all be down to what happens in NSW and Queensland.
Here in Perth, Smith’s electorate is vulnerable. In 2007 he had a pretty comfortable victory but in 2010 it was down to Green preferences.
The nature of the demographics of the electorate is changing and not in favour of Labor
Will Alannah really run?
[Janelle Saffin must surely be in for a minor ministry and what of Ursula Stephens?]
Not that it matters I suppose.
With parliament having risen, the new front benchers are not going to have the full experience of being a minister before they enter opposition.
[ By calling on the vote? ]
No – for two reasons:
1. She implemented the policies that had eluded Rudd until his own party dumped him in disgust. If you vote according to policy, remember that most of what you are voting for is Gillard’s policy legacy, not Rudd’s.
2. She has given Rudd clear air to campaign – something he never gave her. If you vote according to personality, Rudd will look “statesmanlike” only because he does not have to constantly fend off his own party white-anting him the way he did to Gillard.
Personally, I don’t think it likely Rudd will win. But if he does, a significant amount of the credit should go to Gillard. Not that Rudd would ever admit that, of course.
JV, still making shit up. If you look back at Psephos’ recent posts he was consistent in saying that something was quite likely to happen this week although he wasn’t sure what it would be.
[I’m of the view that a PM might be better the second time round.
The time on the sidelines contributes to the shaping of a more experienced and wiser PM.]
I think barring a bizarre hung parliament outcome that puts control of the parliament on a knife edge, Rudd knows if he doesn’t win majority government at the election he will be replaced as leader after it.
j.v. when did Psephos say it wasn’t on? I do recall him saying something about nervous caucus members and being unable to tell which way they would jump (or something like that).
@Tricot/2790
Apparently Barnett had better relationship with Rudd than with Gillard:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-premier-colin-barnett-had-better-relationship-with-kevin-rudd-than-julia-gillard/story-fnhocxo3-1226670816851
alias
Absolutely. I teared up in the car on the F3 listening to that from Oakeshott. A wonderful genuine. line from him
2795
DisplayName
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
j.v. when did Psephos say it wasn’t on? I do recall him saying something about nervous caucus members and being unable to tell which way they would jump (or something like that).
And he was right. The knifing of Julia by the Shorten faction was the thing he couldn’t predict.
[It will all be down to what happens in NSW and Queensland.]
With Lyne and New England effectively now back in the Libs column, the Libs have 75 seats. In Victoria there are two ultramarginals that the ALP have to defend of an historic high in 2010. Labor are also notoriously on the nose in Tasmania – and the NSW libs seem better prepared than last time. it will be a miracle for Labor to win but Rudd might keep it respectable.
OK so how stupid were these wonderful factional players who thought they could just dump a first term PM who bought Labor out of the wilderness. AND having done that destroyed the like progression of Labor terms that could have followed.
Greedy, impatient and arrogant of the public and politics.
Rudd would have most certainly won that election.
So Labor could have had Rudd with 2-3 terms until the public became bored of Rudd Labor and then could have handed over to the next likely candidate at that time…Gillard or Shorten.
The likely outcome if they didn’t knife Rudd for no reason would have been three terms, counting the winning of this one by him or a replacement. And then the good possibility of another after that.
All that happened by those events of 2010 was a trashing of the Labor brand and the destruction of possible succession of Labor govts.