Rudd 57, Gillard 45

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.

UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,091 comments on “Rudd 57, Gillard 45”

Comments Page 55 of 62
1 54 55 56 62
  1. DN:

    She disputed the former PM’s assessment that her Prime Ministership had made it easier for the next generation of women to step up, pointing to Kirner, Lawrence and Thatcher.

    I was in the car with an 18yo student who asked me who was this woman who had no idea about the ambitions of women her age. Cox would be, what, in her 60s?

  2. [ I am sure that Julia would have urged them to remain in place. ]

    Yes, that had occurred to me also.

    Obviously not to our esteemed “political journalists”, though!

  3. My memory of “whatever it takes” is what Richardson told Bruvver Ducker he would do to unseat Geoff Cahill as general secretary of the NSW ALP. The result has been 38 years of corruption in which each successive general secretary chooses an equally odious successor.

    It is not something to be proud of.

  4. Chris Taylor ‏@christaylornzl 1m

    @FrancieJones just heard on news here that NZ female politicians appalled at treatment of Julia Gillard & consider sexism worse in AUS.M to a Bible Basher then maybe to a Mad Monk. Allah Akbar

  5. [Player One
    ……

    I personally think Labor has now thrown away the best chance they had of winning, which was to back Gillard with Rudd gone.]

    I fully respect that this is your honestly held opinion, but I have to say that the idea that Gillard could have won this election is just laughable to me.

    Have you not stepped outside and spoken to any Australian voters over the last couple of years?

    It is not that they were angry with her but might grudgingly decide to vote for her anyway, they were actively repulsed whenever she came on the TV, they didn’t listen to anything she said, they didn’t trust anything she said and she was a lying backstabber in their eyes who screwed up everything she touched.

    I know you loved her and thought she was wonderful, but the hard reality is the vast majority of the voting public held the exact opposite view to you.

  6. [Some Gillardistas like myself were sad to see her go. ]
    I was a Ruddist who is sad to see Gillard go.

    Sadly politics isn’t just about doing what is fair.

  7. [frednk
    Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 8:23 pm | PERMALINK
    If your going to insult someone, do it slowly:

    R_Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin 2m

    Chris Uhlmann is exactly like Moses, only without the sheep, the followers, God’s grace, or the IQ. The desert is in his head.]

    Perfect representation of an Abbot/Uhlmann stint in the seminary. They witnessed so much, afraid to tell. No courage. Wimps. Love to see them called up before the Royal Commission, into contemporary abuse.

    =====

    crikey whitey

    [I was hugely disappointed in Nicola Roxon for bailing out.]

    I think Nicola wants another child. And good on her. She’ll be a recipient of all the good legislation Labor has introduced for kids.

    Roxon was the first member of parly to give birth, she’s been a rock-solid supporter of Labor, she’s served for 15 years. Her daughter is 7, probably closer to 8 years old.

    When you think of 15 years service, you don’t immediately think of pollies.

    When Gillard shed a tear (shock, horror, about Roxon retiring), and then with Chris Evans, nobody ever thought that Gillard might be doing the same 6 months down the track –

    nuh, they just hopped into her without a care in the world about her colleagues who’d supported her, who had been friends, for all those years.

    Not a tear was to be shed, in fellowship.

    When you really look at the times Gillard has teared up, there’s been three:

    1.When her father died
    2. When introducing NDIS
    3. A slight quaver when thanking her staff.

    Three times she’s been on the verge of tears for other people.

    1. Her mother
    2. The disabled
    3. Her staff.

    Julia Gillard is not a self-pitying person. She cares about others first and foremost. And she’s resilient.

    And she knits. Go Julia. You haven’t let me down.

  8. [Oliver Peterson of the ABC says a “big wheel in WA Labor” – to be revealed shortly on the 7pm news – will contest preselection for Perth.]
    Alannah MacTiernan?

  9. Mod, slow down. You can’t take lots of different things said by different individuals, roll them all into some general ball of words and expect that it’s meaningful for any one of those individuals to justify that ball as if it only contained their own words.

  10. Spray

    I think the polls may favour Abbott by 52-53/47-48.

    Why do you think I am getting ahead of myself?

    Yes, today, the performance by Rudd was the best I’ve seen.

    Name one better in QT? I dare you!

    Is it astonishing that one can’t identify a performance as the best they’ve seen?

    I likened it to It’s A Dundeel’s win in the Derby, which too was the best I’ve ever seen.

    And I am not in the business of making judgement calls based on emotion 😉

  11. OC:

    Thanks for that historical insight.

    [It is not something to be proud of.]

    Which is presumably why the phrase has become so disparaged.

  12. I’m not making any suggestions on Polling numbers.

    Still too much unknowns at this point, and Abbott has been totally talking fear until this point.

  13. I am presuming that like the bourbons Rudd has learned nothing and remembered nothing.

    In which case, if he does pull of a miraculous victory I think he will be Pm for less than a year. If he loses he will be LOTO until the first caucus meeting.

  14. Stephen ‏@TheAviator1992 2h
    Clive Palmer has confirmed Joe Hockey begged him to pay Ashby’s legal fees. VERY bad news for the Coalition

  15. Thanks to Frednk @2546 for this one.

    I have a conscientious and intelligent daughter who’s a young Labor activist with a passion for education. She’s a little discouraged at the moment, especially about the women in public life issue in Oz. I just sent her the following message: Hi, Just noticed a succinct summary on a blog: “Well, Gillard got it done, we will now find out if Rudd can sell it.”

    Thanks for that!

  16. Centre,

    As I said, you see what you want to see. I reckon I saw twenty performances from Gillard that were better than Rudd’s effort today.

    I guess I’m biassed.

  17. Oakeshott Country 2717

    ‘In which case, if he does pull of a miraculous victory I think he will be Pm for less than a year.’

    At least Abbott will be rolled well before.

  18. Well, Gillard got it done, we will now find out if Rudd can sell it.

    Yes, if I can find any consolation in the situation it is that the ALP are really aiming to sell a consolidation of what has already been achieved, and even Kevin Rudd can do selling consolidation without screwing it up I would hope.

  19. [Clive Palmer has confirmed Joe Hockey begged him to pay Ashby’s legal fees. VERY bad news for the Coalition]

    Come on! Please someone from the LNP call him a liar!!!! 🙂

  20. [Stephen ‏@TheAviator1992 2h
    Clive Palmer has confirmed Joe Hockey begged him to pay Ashby’s legal fees. VERY bad news for the Coalition]
    Joe Hockey turns out to be a liar as well as an economic dunce.

  21. Alannah MacTiernan, of whom I knew little previously, was magnificent on her most recent appearance on Q&A. Articulate, smart, funny, engaging. Everything you could possibly want in a candidate.

    The only thing that might be cited against her I suppose is that she is 60. But still, in the US, politicians are just coming into their own in their sixties, so why not?

  22. [Vince O’Grady ‏@vogrady2132 21m
    A hot sauce has just told me the liberal party fones are running hot because of P. Slippers outing and Palmers confirmation]

  23. Trying to get my head around this Hockey thing. Can someone talk through how this works? Does this prove Hockey was part of some conspiracy he has previously denied? The details of this Ashby Slipper affair have been so sordid and tedious that my eyes have glazed over for the most part.

  24. confessions

    You sound terrific. Why don’t you step up to the mark, instead of leaving feminism to the old stalwarts, who are a bit out of touch now, not their ideology but their way of presenting it.

    Can you not understand that Eva Cox and Germaine Greer, to name but two, are sick to death of repeating something they thought fresh 50 years ago?

    You’ve seen how Germaine has been treated. If she doesn’t comment, she’s loathed, and if she does, she’s loathed.

    [He interviewed Eva Cox who was just depressing. Where is the new generation of feminists to take the place of these has-beens?]

    Looking at you kid. I reckon you’ve got the nads to do it.

  25. [and even Kevin Rudd can do selling consolidation without screwing it up I would hope]

    He failed at selling the signature policy responses of his then govt, hence the stimpac and BER and HIP are no go zones for the ALP. Why would be suddenly be different now?

  26. 1. The greater control exerted by the Speaker in the house, far greater than at any time under Gillard.

    2. The surprise of the Opposition of the manner in which Rudd was able to turn negative questions into positive answers.

    3. The professionalism by Rudd in shifting the focus on policy rather than engaging in a negative debate.

    4. The criticism by Rudd to Abbott of the constant negative questioning and lack of a plan for the nations future.

    5. The ability by Rudd to take the fight out of the gutter with ease and onto a respectable playing field.

    6. The without interjection and impressed shakes of the head by Hockey and Abbott’s demeanour changing from winking to sunken shoulders in one day.

    Yes, Rudd now holds the record for the best performance by a PM in QT 😎 in my view 😛

  27. [Trying to get my head around this Hockey thing. Can someone talk through how this works? Does this prove Hockey was part of some conspiracy he has previously denied? The details of this Ashby Slipper affair have been so sordid and tedious that my eyes have glazed over for the most part.]
    Hockey, Abbott and Brough have all claimed they had “no specific knowledge” about the claims Ashby made against Slipper.

    It now turns out that Hockey and Brough actually had a meeting with Clive Palmer where they asked him to fund Ashby’s sexual harrasment suit against Slipper.

    In other words, Hockey may now be a relatively slim man, but he is a big fat liar.

  28. Sarah
    <blockquote? can="" you="" not="" understand="" that="" eva="" cox="" and="" germaine="" greer,="" to="" name="" but="" two,="" are="" sick="" death="" of="" repeating="" something="" they="" thought="" fresh="" 50="" years="" ago?="" you’ve="" seen="" how="" has="" been="" treated.="" if="" she="" doesn’t="" comment,="" she’s="" loathed,="" does,="" loathed.=""
    That makes it all the weirder that they would reject the PM as the wrong kind of person to have associated with their cause :P.

  29. Ah crap, did it again. Mistyped angle bracket as a question mark!

    Here’s my actual comment @ 2737:

    That makes it all the weirder that they would reject the PM as the wrong kind of person to have associated with their cause 😛 .

  30. Yeah, sadly I’m just not sure how credible a source Clive Palmer can be considered to be.

    This is the same Clive Palmer of the greens-CIA-conspiracy-to-destroy-the-coal-industry.

  31. In other words, Hockey may now be a relatively slim man, but he is a big fat liar.

    Shrek to Shrank.

    Couldn’t even do it without banding.

    Apologies and understanding to those with a medical condition.

  32. Sarah R:

    I haven’t ripped up my membership yet, principally because of something zoomster said this morning: when you leave the party, you leave it to them.

  33. Spray well put substance to rhetoric.

    I’m sure many could say the same about Derby wins to use the analogy?

    Put up or Z.I.P. 😉

  34. Is professor palmer even credible? He just wants to be part of any story going. He is a desperate attention seeker of little substance. Pity his tv ads now have to be dumped!!

  35. [
    DT84
    Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Thanks to Frednk @2546 for this one.

    I have a conscientious and intelligent daughter who’s a young Labor activist with a passion for education. She’s a little discouraged at the moment, especially about the women in public life issue in Oz. I just sent her the following message: Hi, Just noticed a succinct summary on a blog: “Well, Gillard got it done, we will now find out if Rudd can sell it.”

    Thanks for that!
    ]

    I have a darker one for you, from a friend, from when I was 18.

    Don’t worry he will be long dead and his views forgotten when your making your mark on the world.

    My view is Gillard won. No one will ever know if she could have pulled the election off or not, she got three years and she used them. She will now become a martyr and a saint in the eyes of many. Rudd will just be another other; forgotten by History..

Comments Page 55 of 62
1 54 55 56 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *