We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …
UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.
UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.
Mod Lib:
The only real contest now is in O’Connor. Frankly I’d hate to see a Liberal regain it after Tuckey did SFA in his time in parliament. The Nat candidate seems relatively normal, as far as Nationals go, except for that weird thing with his name – I don’t get that.
Confessions
It is a hollow feeling. Watching Rudd and listening to his words made me angry. The only satisfaction gained was seeing Abbott and Co looking very nervous.
I have said before that an Abbott Govt would reap its own whirlwind. Which would be well deserved. And well deserved by those who would vote him in against their own interests.
Is it the cult of personality? Maybe if so, it is those eg Shorten who seek to be just that.
[Yes, there would be a lot of single mums cheering the leadership change, if only to see off the perpetrators (not just Gillard but the whole routed cabal).]
And John Howard I guess?
Player One
I thought you said at first that you would be seeking an Independent to vote for.
And speaking of Wilson, another advert for him. This time filmed alongside farming equipment and in supermarkets.
Hopefully he’s ditched that ineffective ad boasting of having
broughtdragged little-known Liberals such as the Member for Indi, Mitch Fifield, and Kevin Andrews to this electorate.Channel Nine in Perth suggests Tim Hammond, who ran for Swan in 2010, and Alannah MacTiernan as possibilities to replace Stephen Smith in Perth.
[Is it the cult of personality?]
It certainly is. Remember the leadership change was only about winning the election, not about policy differences, or the leadership capability of the former PM. Winning the election.
That means it comes down to personality. The current Labor leader vs the LOTO. Caucus clearly weren’t thinking about what happens on the day after the election.
First Gillard quits, now Mark Webber is leaving F1.
Bugger. End of an era, now confirmed.
Mos’ def
[William Bowe
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 8:07 pm | PERMALINK
Channel Nine in Perth suggests Tim Hammond, who ran for Swan in 2010, and Alannah MacTiernan as possibilities to replace Stephen Smith in Perth.]
Go Alannah!
[It certainly is. Remember the leadership change was only about winning the election, not about policy differences, or the leadership capability of the former PM. Winning the election.
That means it comes down to personality. The current Labor leader vs the LOTO. Caucus clearly weren’t thinking about what happens on the day after the election.]
thats the thing they actually were. there were thinking they would be out of a job. they were thinking the party was about to be decimated. funny I thought elections did actually matter in politics for some reason.
jaundiced view
“Yes, there would be a lot of single mums cheering the leadership change, if only to see off the perpetrators (not just Gillard but the whole routed cabal).”
Has Rudd given any indication he will reverse the changes made to the single parenting payment? Or is this just wishful thinking on your part?
Fair enough Centre, if David Speers says that Rudd delivered a great performance in QT, then it must be so.
Can’t wait to see those polls now. What do you reckon? 56-44 to Labor?
Tim Hammond was an asbestos lawyer at Slater & Gordon.
[ Player One
I thought you said at first that you would be seeking an Independent to vote for. ]
Yes, I will first preference any independents that I actually think I could support based on their policies – if they win, then fine. Then I will “exhaust” my vote by voting for any other non-Labor candidates in their order of likelihood of winning. Then the majors.
Of course, it helps if there is one non-Labor candidate that is very likely to win anyway, but previously I would still always give my first preference to Labor. This gives me the best chance – without casting an informal vote – of not giving a 2PP to Labor if I can possibly help it.
If there is a better way to achieve this outcome, I’d be interested in hearing about it.
MacTiernan. I see why Mod Lib cheers.
Turncoats and personality cults.
Spray
“Can’t wait to see those polls now. What do you reckon? 56-44 to Labor?”
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I think 51/49 to the Coalition is pretty safe.
crikey whitey
[It is not that I do not know her, but moments like this bring it home. What hope if I cannot influence my friends.]
Eh, don’t worry about it.
Just had a male friend on the phone who was upset about Stephen Smith resigning.
How dare you, said he, not worry about none of the women resigning, and the best ever Defence Minister resigning.
I said, hang on a minute old son, The Defence Minister is resigning for personal reasons, like the kids have all grown up now and I can come home to some peace. *tongue in cheek*
He said: You don’t get it. He’s resigning. It’s all over the news. Why haven’t the women resigned? You must be soooooo upset.
I said. Nup.
Not at all. Not a whisker.
The best legacy Julia Gillard left is an intact female ministry.
The best nod to feminism is the resignation in her favour from the men. The men who held portfolios.
The men who resigned.
How’s that bad? I asked.
Yes, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Precisely.
I haven’t heard of Tim Hammond, but I haven’t lived in Perth for a very long time now.
I would have thought Allanah would have the best shot at holding Perth given her State and local government profile in the area.
Its funny to see those who were euphoric with a non-significant change in the polls in the ALP favour and either depressed or in denial about every bad poll for the ALP now making fun of poll improvements under Rudd’s leadership! :devil:
[there were thinking they would be out of a job.]
Yep. Presumably Richo coined the phrase Whatever It Takes solely because of a few jellybacks unwilling to stand up and fight for what their government had achieved.
If your going to insult someone, do it slowly:
[R_Chirgwin @R_Chirgwin 2m
Chris Uhlmann is exactly like Moses, only without the sheep, the followers, God’s grace, or the IQ. The desert is in his head.]
Personally I hope Alannah MacTiernan stands for Perth. I did some work for her at the 2010 election and she was incredibly impressive.
After the let-down of yesterday, this is probably the only thing that will get me volunteering this time around.
[Yep. Presumably Richo coined the phrase Whatever It Takes solely because of a few jellybacks unwilling to stand up and fight for what their government had achieved.]
Wasn’t it “whatever it takes to get Hawke”?
I’d prefer Allanah to Tim Hammond, but would really prefer a young person who has the commitment and intestinal fortitude to contribute to the party’s rebuild in opposition.
Sarah Roberts.
I hold Anne Summers in high regard. However, I think she was quite wrong in accusing the Labor women of failing by sword to support Julia.
I am sure that Julia would have urged them to remain in place.
It is indeed a great legacy. Esp Penny Wong et al. I was hugely disappointed in Nicola Roxon for bailing out.
Its beyond me why so many here are so depressed!
The ALP now has a fighting chance at this election, and has probably saved the Senate at the very least.
It appears some of you are not ALP supporters at all, you are just Gillard supporters.
Problems on the internet:
The Geek Editorial @geeksrulz 14m
Please someone help me. Mr Pyne is following me. What should I do?
Oh! And after a few hours listening to the interviewers on the phones tonight the changeover has had an exceptionally positive response. I’ve heard three people say it is changing their vote from the Coalition to Labor and only one vice-versa.
Last week I heard one 80-year-old guy say he was voting Labor. One guy. All week. After listening to 30+ interviews
Yes, anecdotal. But haven’t heard anything really positive about Labor in this project until tonight.
Take from that what you will.
Gillard and Swan both made fine speeches last night. Many people have remarked on how Swan’s speech was so much better than his normal efforts. It occurred to me that maybe that’s because he didn’t have to stick to any talking points. He could actually speak from the heart. I have seen many people make the comment that Gillard’s best speeches tend to come when she’s talking off the cuff. Maybe there’s a lesson there.
mimhoff:
Whatever It Takes has become synonymous with NSW Labor right ruthless machine politics.
That’s what I’m referring to.
Well, just speaking for myself, I won’t be paying much attention to polls over the next couple of weeks as I don’t think they will be particularly meaningful in terms of the actual election outcome.
If, after a month or two, the ALP vote is substantially better I’ll do grudging concession that moving to Rudd was a sensible move at this point in time.
However, if after a month or two, the ALP vote hasn’t improved over 45/55 TPP to the LNP, I’ll do a moderate amount of gloating about how the Ruddistas were deluded and fooled by Rudd and the OM.
It will be about the only joy there will be to be had at that point.
Well at least there is no #Rudd on twitter tonight lol.
Mob Lib
Some Gillardistas like myself were sad to see her go. Others were angry. It’s the angry ones that are taking longer to recover.
Agree with Jackol, though I think we’ll be not so much gloating as demanding an explanation.
Anyway, let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
confessions
Yup. I understand what you’re getting at.
I thought it was interesting how it’s yet another thing where the original meaning has been lost and replaced with a mythology–and that the original meaning was about how to win a fight within the party!
absolutet:
Perth ABC talkback had the leadershit stuff on this morning. Practically all callers were negative with ridicule. And I listened to pretty much all of Russell’s show driving out bush.
He interviewed Eva Cox who was just depressing. Where is the new generation of feminists to take the place of these has-beens?
Fair enough Jackol.
I reckon the polls will be 2 – 3% better for the ALP in 1 month than last month.
I agree, if the polls are still 56-44 in one month then the Ruddistas will have egg on their faces
Mod Lib@2677
Would you be insulted if I said you weren’t an LNP supporter, just a Turnbull supporter?
Didn’t think so.
Something like that coming from you is basically a compliment!
confessions @ 2687, what did she say?
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 4s
Australia, you are a crazy country, overnight you jump from an atheist PM to a Bible Basher then maybe to a Mad Monk. Allah Akbar
If Rudd wins, just loses or loses very badly, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Gillard would have lost by a margin unfathomable! It would not have been a matter of how many more seats the Coalition won than the ALP, it would have been a matter of how many more times as many seats the Coalition won than the ALP.
confessions
These people have been randomly dialed in extremely disparate electorates. They are not the type who call talkback radio or even listen to the news all that much.
Mod Lib:
Labor under its current leader will get a poll bounce, that much is certain. A honeymoon, if you prefer.
But it won’t be meaningful in terms of the election outcome, unless persistent after a couple of months.
Does the govt have a couple of months to play with in terms of exploiting this honeymoon? Probably not.
When Scott Morrison is in Indonesia over the weekend, I understand that he will be handed a week’s supply of nasi goreng and invited to take a ride on a fishing boat.
….but the difference is I have never said I was a “rusted on true blue believer” liberal.
I have always said that I make my decisions based on the choice before me. For years I have been told by so many here that “I would never vote Liberal in a million years”.
My say used to leave immediately whenever a liberal poster just posted a comment here saying that she could not bear to be anywhere where there was a liberal.
Now you tell me that you are not ALP voters, you just liked Gillard and so voted for the ALP to get her….and now that she is gone you are voting Liberal*
*is that what some of you are saying, or is it just bluff?
Oliver Peterson of the ABC says a “big wheel in WA Labor” – to be revealed shortly on the 7pm news – will contest preselection for Perth.
Have we had a fair shake of the sauce bottle yet?
[ The ALP now has a fighting chance at this election, and has probably saved the Senate at the very least. ]
A lot of people simple don’t agree with that assessment.
I personally think Labor has now thrown away the best chance they had of winning, which was to back Gillard with Rudd gone.
Now I think their chances of winning are pretty much nonexistent.
Gillard had Abbott’s measure. Rudd does not. Rudd can bluster as much as he likes. Abbott will just out-nasty him at every turn. Rudd is damaged goods.
[“big wheel in WA Labor”]
Not Hawkie???