We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …
UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.
UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.
[You never struck me as being stupid in the past, Mr Squiggle. Has something gone amiss?]
My word, I have a nibble.
Give me a few moments folks, I’ll be back with a stunning rebuke.
I am distracted by Webber’s annoucement tonight, somewhat sad in fact.
Did Howard ever apologise to anyone for past wrongs?
He was to busy stating that i did not do it so it was not my fault.
[I think it is a mistake to think KR will make a difference in WA. He is one of the reasons WA Labor has fared so badly. The KR/JG period has given WA voters the view – rightly or wrongly – that Labor is opposed to their economic interests. It is going to take a long while to rebuild.]
That’s OK, it is far more important for Labor to improve its performance in QLD. They will win twice as many seats for a given swing there.
[Gillard wrecked the Forced Adoptee’s Day by declaring a leadership challenge.
Why couldn’t she let the Stolen Children have their day without silly Labor nonsense?]
What a load of crap, I for one personally appreciated JG and what she said re Forced Adoptee’s. And if you are in the same position as me the leadership carry on made no difference
[2883
Kevin Bonham
On that Morgan state breakdown, I’m calling “bollocks” on the Tasmanian sample even with the 9% MOE for sample size taken into account.]
The Morgan poll likely means nothing at all.
DisplayName
From my own knowledge, and watching Hawker Britton yesterday (among others) scoffing at any suggestion otherwise, and then looking at the results, no.
[Take a hike as well, super d@ckwit.]
Abbott Boo’d by the left because he said “birth parents”, but Gillard completely fcks the day of the Forced Adoptee’s by holding a leadership stunt.
I may be a dickhead, but i’ve also got a good memory.
[The apology to forced adoptees, —-DEMONISING the work of the church]
Have to admit the church has a lot to answer for in recent years.
The only thing in regards to the morgan poll is that they tend to favour Labor more i feel so it maybe about 53-47 in favor of the Libs. Time will tell.
[2881
marky marky
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Did you read the article Perth having 50 degree temperatures in the near future Mr Squiggle? But of course climate change does not exist.]
We recorded 48 degrees in the northern suburbs this summer just past – not an official reading, but it was double checked using a calibrated and certified thermometer.
@marky marky/2910
Except that Morgan in recently hasn’t been favoring Labor (well ever since Gillard became PM).
A few spikes where it was pretty close, but otherwise it hasn’t really favored Labor.
[Abbott Boo’d by the left because he said “birth parents”, but Gillard completely fcks the day of the Forced Adoptee’s by holding a leadership stunt.]
Where do you get your material it is great?? Surely you dont think that a leadership stunt devalues what she said/did. If you do you have no idea about true perspective and what actually matters.
If you guys think that a change of leader is all that’s going to be required to win the election then you deserve to lose. It’s just the foundations for a second chance.
j.v. so you’ve worked out all the details from distant, external observation?
The SMS sample is drawn from the Face to Face morgan poll sample so has a similar sample bias, if any.
[2907
Sean Tisme
Take a hike as well, super d@ckwit.
Abbott Boo’d by the left because he said “birth parents”, but Gillard completely fcks the day of the Forced Adoptee’s by holding a leadership stunt.
I may be a dickhead, but i’ve also got a good memory.]
Then you will have no trouble remembering that you are also a bogus twit.
Yes agree, but in the past his polls have put in Labor in a better position than the other polls has this been the case over the last year? i have not paid attention over the last year to his polling before that yes.
Apparently Bob Carr’s current chief of staff Graeme Wedderburn (who was also his chief of staff when he was NSW Premier) is going to be Rudd’s new chief of staff.
Another good move.
[Where do you get your material it is great?? Surely you dont think that a leadership stunt devalues what she said/did.]
It made the Forced Adoption story a subnote on the nightly news and sucked all the oxygen out of the event.
Why did she have to hold a leadership stunt on that day, why not the next day?
Less abuse, please (including from me I suppose).
@mm
Pretty much right, the old FTF morgan was on the high side of support for the ALP.
[Why did she have to hold a leadership stunt on that day, why not the next day?]
Yeah, it was her who started all that…
Was that in Perth Northern Suburbs or Sydney as Penrith in Sydney had close to 48 as well but that is in the west of Sydney.
Hobart highest temp ever last summer and Sydney the same, Melbourne highest temp ever in 2009 but of course climate change does not exist…
To think as we all age we will have to live in these temperatures far more uncomfortable as you get older.
Morgan’s old face-to-face series was certainly biased to Labor, but the multi-mode series which has replaced it – in which the face-to-face sample is supplemented by SMS and internet polling – hasn’t been. So I don’t think there’s any reason to suppose a Morgan SMS poll would have a Labor bias.
[It made the Forced Adoption story a subnote on the nightly news and sucked all the oxygen out of the event.]
So the bigger news story it gets the more worthy it is? Is value measured just by column inches.
FFS
[If you guys think that a change of leader is all that’s going to be required to win the election then you deserve to lose.]
For 3 years the Leadership Change Now crowd have been telling anyone who cared to listen that a leadership change was all that was needed.
I sure hope the honeymoon bounce the new leader gets lasts longer than I suspect it will.
Thank Christ for the internet. William, here is a quote to support my first post-Webber rant on your site;
‘Mr Turnbull said it was “pathetically sad” the government had gone to all the trouble to have a greater voice on the UN security council but would abstain from the general assembly vote on the issue.
“Its first significant vote since it won that seat on the security council is not to say yes or no but to say nothing, to sit mute, undecided, weak and helpless and impotent.
“It doesn’t have the guts to say for it or against it.”
and here is a link
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1715519/PM-mute-and-weak-on-Palestinian-vote-Turnbull
I might be bit stretched on the gaspers packaging comment, but I’ll be back!!!!!
We don’t need reasons to suppose things, William.
She called for it but no spill happened. Of course the media didn’t have to go over the top about it, they could have reported the more important stuff but they did not.
Thanks for that info Willam.
I hope the new leader can come up with a better explanation for the party changing leaders just to win an election than ‘kinder, gentler politics’.
We’ve been there before with the current LOTO, and look how that turned out.
Mr Squiggle
“I might be bit stretched on the gaspers packaging comment, but I’ll be back!!!!!”
Please reconsider!!!!!
2896
crikey whitey
Posted Thursday, June 27, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
Julia will finish the Kanga. I recall Princess Di wearing with fondness a Jenny Kee jumper.
I have been watching the Queen’s Diamond Years. The some two thousand gifts for some wedding were numbered and annotated, even down to a wrapped lolly gifted by a little girl.
Even Kev couldn’t turn a knit into a spin.
@Mr Squiggle/2927
Turnbull is sad pathetic himself, dying the same colors as the rest of the Coalition Party.
DisplayName
Yeah, the science doesn’t change. Samples from 300 km away can still be verified in the lab.
@William Bowe
I would love to know where the samples all fit for the multi mode According to Morgan rep on the ABC this morning the SMS poll was described as a panel drawn from the FTF sample from people who volunteered to be contacted when needed. Dont know what sample bias there would be with that.
Gee, William.
Essendon beat you.
The big issues knitting a kangaroo for the Royal Baby, i love big issues they really give me a headache.
I wasn’t saying it didn’t happen, Mr S. I look forward to whatever idiotic talking point you manage to dredge up in support of your proposition that the Gillard government was uniquely iniquitous because it taxed cigarettes.
j.v. I think we’re taking this analogy a bit too far. Can you even get those samples to your lab? 🙂
[For 3 years the Leadership Change Now crowd have been telling anyone who cared to listen that a leadership change was all that was needed.]
Good for them. I think differently.
[I would love to know where the samples all fit for the multi mode According to Morgan rep on the ABC this morning the SMS poll was described as a panel drawn from the FTF sample from people who volunteered to be contacted when needed. Dont know what sample bias there would be with that.]
That sounds like a slightly garbled account of the entire “multi mode” method. The internet and SMS components would involve a “panel”, but not the face-to-face component, which is conducted by interviewers going around door to door.
Knitted brow, Marky Marky.
Zoidy,
[Turnbull is sad pathetic himself, dying the same colors as the rest of the Coalition Party.]
This is commentary on Turbull, fair enough, I’m normally up for that, but the challenge to me from William seems to be more around whether there was any factual basis behind my comments at all, not the relative merits.
Ciggies next,
Also very interesting age demographics, though the real drag on Julia’s numbers were in working class males and ethnic backgrounds.
Very unfair, but that is the society we live in.
[In depth analysis by age-group shows that Rudd’s return has proved a ‘hit’ with the Under 50s – all swinging strongly to the ALP in last night’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll.
18-24yrs: ALP (59.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 7%);
25-34yrs: ALP (58.5%, up 9%) cf. L-NP (41.5%, down 9%);
35-49yrs: ALP (50%, up 6%) cf. L-NP (50%, down 6%);
50-64yrs: L-NP (54.5%, down 0.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%, up 0.5%);
65+yrs: L-NP (63%, unchanged) cf. ALP (37%, unchanged).]
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-states-ages-june-27-2013-201306270610?utm_source&utm_medium=Hootsuite&utm_campaign=Social
DT84@2721
DT84 if you are still around, there is no reason for your daughter to be discouraged.
This was not about gender – no female front benchers resigned over it and now the Senate leader and deputy are both female.
Give your daughter my regards, I was in Young Labor many years ago and it was a great place to get started in pursuing an interest. I even had a spell on the State Executive.
Actually Labor being unpopular, the leader being very unpopular and Labor looking at an election thrashing would be considered by the public as a very good and understandable excuse. And they wont care so much since Gillards support rating for a very long time was so low.
The public already understand and accept the why, though Rudd and the party will offer some other rationale.
Policy wise Gillard implemented a lot of Rudd Labor policies and implemented a number of policies that would have been in any case under any Labor leader except with her particular variations…though some policy thinking was entirely hers and some not palatable, nor was her willingness to go into the gutter with plays to dog whistling and xenophobia.
The public are not looking for an explanation as it is obvious to them all.
Abstentions are valid votes on UN committees, far more than they are on legislatures. An abstention represents a nuanced position of the state voting, rather than just cowardice.
Mr Squiggle used his nose to write:
[History will probable (sic) recall …]
History ‘recalls’ nothing. People write history and they do all the recalling, often imperfectly. This is reification without the shred of warrant.
History will recall is one of those tired, hackneyed, pieces of pretentious twaddle — and that the attempt to sound lofty featured a syntax error and a pointless qualification {probable sic} just makes it all the more absurd.
confessions
[For 3 years the Leadership Change Now crowd have been telling anyone who cared to listen that a leadership change was all that was needed.
I sure hope the honeymoon bounce the new leader gets lasts longer than I suspect it will.]
Yet again – the split isn’t about who the leader is. Why keep trivialising the real issue with shopfront irrelevancies?