Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

One day, four federal opinion polls: Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, ReachTEL.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.

Also out today:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).

• ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).

• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,761 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. Tony ‘Wheelchair” Abbott the father of the NDIS.

    So what chance the ALP can run a campaign that won’t just end up increasing the coalition’s primary vote?

    On the morning of Sept. 14 I’m taking the pledge and swearing off all things political for the foreseeable future.
    Or at least until the Tony Love In Honeymoon is over…which could be a very long time.

    Face it folks Abbott IS going to be the Prime minister.
    I’ve accepted it and officially don’t give a toss anymore.

  5. Rosemour or Less
    Posted Tuesday, May 7, 2013 at 8:18 am | PERMALINK
    Tony ‘Wheelchair” Abbott the father of the NDIS.

    ———————————————

    Have to admit that deserved a lol

  6. Mr. Bowe…Not being the type of person would shirk a responsibility or obligation…I would like to say ; after viewing those 300 or so students last night on Q&A. and seeing their exemplary behaviour and good manners…I am somewhat ashamed of my taking liberties and exhibiting some quite vulgar language on your site.
    I offer an apology to yourself….and I will try to restrict my criticism of the right-wing criothans to a more acceptable level.
    Thank you.

  7. Womble

    The NDIS is a good program but somehow Labor has let Abbott get part of the credit.

    The NBN is great but unless there are a LOT of people already hooked up and a lot who will lose immediately if Abbott wins it is not a vote winner. In other words in Suburb X has the NBN and Suburbs Y and Z are scheduled to get it in the next 6 months but will NOT if Abbott wins then it is a winner for Labor. Longer time lines it is less clear and beyond 2 years, no impact.

    Gonski is just NOT a vote winner – no one is interested in how buckets of money are handed out. Nothing that is obvious. Better PR to have something more visible for parents

  8. I have to say, the Pm. last night on Q&A. showed just what damn good value we are getting in the leadership in this country. I challenge any of you to
    criticise that quest’ & response we saw last night…as someone else said..to sit before 300 or so students..and they didn’t avoid the hard questions..for more than an hour, unprompted, unscripted and have Tony Jones sloping about at your elbow, would have to be one hel of a test.
    I believe Julia Gillard showed her true form last night and just how good she is as the PM. of this nation.

    She’s got my vote!

  12. If things were fair and square in the media

    Gillard is on her way for a big win

    But the media refuses to make it a fair fight , they will protect Abbott

  13. DTT – NDIS will all come down to how they sell it, it’s Labor’s idea – the Liberals would never do it. It’s very popular even though it’s linked to a tax increase.

    NBN – I agree they need as many connected as possible before the election, or contracted to be connected. It then becomes a case of “my neighbour gets the real NBN, why do I only get fraudband” – it will swing some votes

    Gonski – people know how important education is, if they have kids at school they also know that this could mean less digging into their own pockets to pay for it. It’s a vote winner as well.

    All comes down to how they are sold though and to date, the selling has been poor.

    Off to work, have a great day All

  14. If the Coalition win the election, which seems likely, it will be a hollow victory, akin to Fraser’s “victory” in 1975. Hollow, begrudging, empty. What will follow will be be a period of intense in-fighting among tories to discover their identity. Ultimately it will end in tears for them.

    In the interim, the ALP will do some serious soul searching and will come out better for the experience. A truly great leader will emerge who will connect with the public in the way Hawke did.

    Lynchpin The Prophet

  15. Re polls, the one that counts and late swings – Labor has not had a true landslide win at Federal level in the past 60 years, although that has sometimes been predicted in the polls, e.g. 2007. The ALP’s best result since 1946 was 1983 when the ALP won 53.2% of the 2PP and 60% of the seats. In years when the ALP is expected to win handsomely (e.g. polls predicting 54+ 2PP for the ALP) there always seems to be a late swing back to the Coalition. In my memory this is often detected and reported in the media in the few days leading up to the election. It is as if as though there is a large group of people who flirt with the idea of voting ALP but then can’t bring themselves to do so. Too many see LNP governments as the natural state of affairs and Hawke and Keating did not quite succeed in breaking this mould.

  16. Morning all. I wonder if Swan needs to do something crazy brave in the budget to turn things around, say by deep cuts to middle class welfare and then see if Abbott attacks them. Along with his PPL scheme, Abbott would then be the big and irresponsible spender.

  18. Triton, can’t see the budget having much impact. Maybe half a percent either way.

    The only thing that will save the ALP will be the LOTO being photographed punching a woman in a wheelchair, and even then I am not sure it would be reported, or if so, the headline would be “Abbott’s Tough Love Is What This Country Needs”

  21. Institue of Public Affairs
    “If Tony Abbott wants to leave a lasting impact – and secure his place in history – he needs to take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister.”

    “No prime minister changed Australia more than Gough Whitlam”

    Even the IPA could not find a Liberal PM for Abbott to emulate

  23. Triton

    I think maybe crazy brave is all that is left for Swan.

    I think you could be right.

    Mind you Labor (and many here on PB)need to distinguish between taxing the really wealthy and taxing the middle class.

    There is a lot of envy here on PB directed at people with middle incomes and biggish houses. It is a bit old/young too.

    Taxing the seriously wealthy – Gina ans Clive and the bank bosses will be cheered on by everyone.

    Taxing the 45 year old accountant and his teacher wife not so much.

  24. The things newsltd/abbott coalition has
    1- lies
    2- personal Attacks
    3- Higher Taxes
    4- Australia will go into recession

    things what news ltd/Abbott coalition dont have

    1- Many major policies
    2- Intelligence
    3- Can not manage the country
    4- stability

  25. confessions

    ‘Boerwar:

    As it happens there is a very strong system sitting off the SW coast which is forecast to deliver some good falls to coastal areas this week. :)’

    The narrowing!

  26. Reith is doing payback to Abbott for the way in which Abbott shafted him in public during the Liberal Party presidential elections.

    The hate! The hate!

  28. Meguire Bob @ 174 – one thing you left off your first list:

    5. Free advertising on the front page of 70% of Australia’s newspapers whenever they need it.

  29. I see that the Queensland cattlemen want Australian taxpayers to give Indonesia $100 million worth of free Australian beef.

    Policy-wise, this is a tad confusing.

    Is it rural socialism? Is it a call for government to meddle in the affairs of the individualistic, self-reliant, Canberra-is-shit-except-just-this-once, man on the land? Are the cattlemen advocating the creation of a national welfare mentality amongst the Indonesians? Is this a de facto tax on all Australians in order to create a market-distorting subsidy?

    Wo bist der capitalism-is-god competition policy?

  31. I think these two article headlines provide a great juxtaposition that nicely sums up the differences between fairfax/news and progressives/conservatives.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/millionaires-snub-taxman-20130506-2j3pr.html

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/coalition-to-bust-welfare-mentality-after-internal-row-over-parental-leave/story-e6frg6n6-1226636382810

    The faux concern over modest deficit spending and investment in the future during a downturn and simplistic neo-classical economics hides their real fear – that we get an equitable tax system that would wipe out debt and reduce inherited privilege and disadvantage. Spoilt upper class twits and chinless wonders such as Pyne, Joyce, Downer, Reith, Hunt,etc etc etc etc know they’d not have amounted to much without inherited privilege and elite school-tie connections and they’ll die in a ditch to protect those like them. “Class war” they cry every time there is a move to make things more equitable.

    Labor would do well to go out in style with sweeping Henry Review reforms to the tax system to get rid of dodges, reduce taxes equitably and distribute more tax from those who can afford it to level the playing field. They may as well keep going for broke – they have been an impressive reformist government under dire conditions.

    I think history will remember Gillard kindly – especially once Abbott as PM is revealed to be all slogan and hated by many in his party. His minders can hardly protect him/contain his inherent shallow dickheadness now – they will not be able to stop him as PM. After the Rudd experience, they are stuck with him – the whole country is going to suffer, but the LNP are going to get some real pain.

  32. daretotread @ 173

    There is a lot of envy here on PB directed at people with middle incomes and biggish houses. It is a bit old/young too.

    Couldn’t agree more. It just oozes to the surface here on PB.

  33. Davidwh @ 172 – no – I think she would need to be white with an Anglo name and married (possibly to the 45 year old accountant mentioned in 173) and living in a nice house Western Sydney.

  34. [s it rural socialism? Is it a call for government to meddle in the affairs of the individualistic, self-reliant, Canberra-is-shit-except-just-this-once, man on the land? ]

    Seeing as the ALP destroyed both our relationship and cattle trade industry here in Australia with their knee jerk reaction to a couple of vegetarians recording some video and giving it to Four Corners, it should come out of Gillards, Swans and the other ALP ministers own pockets.

    One of the worst political decisions in the history of this country.

  35. The LNP are talking about an austerity package, which will increase unemployment. Then they will cut unemployment benefits..what are the unemployed to do? Turn to crime?

    The LNP economic policies simply make no sense…

  36. guytaur@142

    Good Morning

    Disunity is death. Expect to see the polls change due to LNP infighting.

    Abbott’s PPL scheme. Infighting within the party. Attacks from outside supporting that infight from the IPA.

    Then there is the fight to come between Palmer and Abbott.

    The polls will change because they must or they will have no credibility at all.

    The other possibility is that they won’t change, or won’t change much, because it is all so much over that the voters do not even care if the Coalition has a bit of infighting.

    After all someone who is really worried by any appearance of infighting whatsoever is not going to even think about voting for Labor for a number of years.

    So of there is a modest move back now I think it will be for other reasons.

  37. Gaus @ 182 – that old crock about envy. No, by and large people who do not share your right wing world view are not envious of people with high incomes or who are doing well through their own efforts. It is not envy to say that these people do not need concessions or handouts, especially in a tight budgetary situation.

    Envy is seen more on the right – a sort of ‘downwards’ envy. Pauline Hanson’s maiden speech in 1996 encapsulated it – many are ‘envious’ of benefits received by the less fortunate. That was indigenous people in the case of Pauline Hanson but you often see the same envy directed against the unemployed, often decried as ‘dole bludgers’, migrants, the ‘luxurious’ conditions in which ‘boat people’ are housed and so on.

  38. Where is your evidence tism the govt is destroying the relationship or are you making shit up again.
    Come on, evidence – let’s see it.

  39. Austerity propgrams/policy have been discredited. But that won’t stop the economic minnow from introducing them

    Stop the SchoolKids payment, remove the %500 contribution to the lowest paid – mainly women and part-timers.

    Remove the 15% tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000. Remove the means test on private health cover.

    Introduce a PPL that will provide the wealthy (example Gina Rineheart) with $75,000.

    Remove the revenue provided by the Carbon legislation but continue to pay the tax cuts without the revenue.

  40. Tiche…You’ve just shown what a “little man” you are! To let such gross cruelty go unchecked or with only a “slap on the wrist” reprimand is to participate in such cruelty….would you continue to drive a car without any brakes hoping it will resolve the problem in transit?
    Don’t be so limp-wristed….you lous… ;no!…I refrain!

  41. The Labor cuts begin… first the Family Tax Benefit.

    Next up will be the increase in compensation for families for the Carbon Tax.

    The Carbon Tax will be increased to $25 a ton only July 1st pushing up prices of power bills for Australians, Labor and Gillard won’t be compensating people extra for the change instead hitting people with a stealth tax.

  42. Anyway..what the matter with adopting the “Free-market” philosophy where overstocking and overproduction should create a glut on the market and bring the price of beef down in the cities…and if there is some “collateral damage” on the way….go tell it to the LNP. and the IPA.
    You can’t have it both ways!

  44. Gauss

    no envy here – my wife and I are high income; we’re not so young (mid-forties); our house is small and sustainable by choice – we’ve done very well out of whitlam-ite and hawke/keating social-democratic reforms and don’t want to see these undone. I don’t want my kids growing up in a US-style free market economy that trashes the future of a large proportion of the population because they were born into poor circumstances or they have had bad luck. I lived in the states and post-thatcher UK and was shocked at the entrenched inequity, social divisions and fear of others this causes. Australia, through the Labor movement has built a much more equitable society – we have the best standard of living on the world (the Swiss and the Swedes may win on some scorings, but these do not score our beaches and egalitarianism/ general tolerance high enough). Under Howard and Murdoch, Australia has lurched towards becoming a bogan/hick nation like much of the US – where ignorance, fear and intolerance are seen as virtues (summed up by the attitudes ‘Why should I listen to people smarter and better educated that me, my opinion (taken from a Bolt column) is just as good/better’ and ‘I’m not listening to you if you’re going to argue with boring facts and logic; I’ll listen to/adopt this uninformed and disproven rhetoric instead’). All that matters is money and having more than your neighbours. The LNP lead the charge to (and increasingly personify) this dumbing down and venial materialism, and it is this, not envy, that drives my passionate dislike of them.

  46. [Tiche…You’ve just shown what a “little man” you are! To let such gross cruelty go unchecked or with only a “slap on the wrist” reprimand is to participate in such cruelty]

    Had nothing to do with aussie farmers, if you and your leftie cohorts wanna pretend to be captain planet strap on your little capes and fly over to Indonesia.

    BTW what do you do for a living?

  48. Where is your evidence tism the govt has “destroyed the relationship” “with indonesia.
    I’m calling you a liar and gutless, here is your chance to respond.

  49. sustainable future

    You may be interested in this article.

    [Why the politics of envy are keenest among the very rich

    …….In order to grant the rich these pleasures, the social contract is reconfigured. The welfare state is dismantled. Essential public services are cut so that the rich may pay less tax. The public realm is privatised, the regulations restraining the ultra-wealthy and the companies they control are abandoned, and Edwardian levels of inequality are almost fetishized…………..
    They note that the nations with the longest working hours – the United States, the United Kingdom and Italy, in the graph of OECD nations they publish in the book – are those with the greatest inequality. They might have added that they are also the three with the lowest levels of social mobility.]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/06/politics-envy-keenest-rich

  50. Sean Tisme – March 2013

    PENSIONERS will receive an extra $35 a fortnight from later this month when payments are adjusted for inflation.

    From March 20 single pensioners will receive an extra $35.80 a fortnight, while couples will receive a combined increase of $54 a fortnight.

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