BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition

With barely four months left to go, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains more or less where it’s been since February.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.

Other matters:

• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.

Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.

Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition”

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  1. Amazing

    “@BBCBreaking: Rescuers in #Bangladesh say possible survivor located in remains of factory building, 17 days after its collapse”

  2. Peter Reith canning Tony’s IR. As seen on the Drum. Funny that. This ticks a few boxes.

    Careful what you wish for
    Date July 3, 2011 Paul Daley

    Every so often somebody from the political past strolls back onto the stage, reigniting our interest in public affairs and prompting us to lament: ”don’t you remember when politicians used to believe in something?”

    Thanks Peter Reith. We’re paying attention.

    When Reith raised his head a few weeks ago, having been urged by his old junior colleague Tony Abbott to run against Alan Stockdale for the federal Liberal presidency, more than a few Liberals thought, ”Be careful, Tony.”

    Others found themselves overcome by a wave of nostalgia for a golden period in Liberal politics, beginning with the second coming of John Howard in 1995 and the swearing in of his cabinet – including Reith – in 1996.

    Reith was – is – a hugely polarising character. He was never going to win a political beauty contest but he exuded conviction, especially when he was the spearhead for contentious government reform, not least on industrial relations and the waterfront. Remember the dogs?

    A few days ago he lobbed another metaphorical spear. It entered Abbott’s chest just below the ribcage and exited above the opposite shoulder. Reith’s aim was sure and he didn’t miss.

    Abbott, having convinced Reith to run for the presidency, showed his ballot to Stockdale as the cameras captured the votes being tallied at the Liberal Federal Council meeting.

    Reith, incandescent with rage, has been telling anyone who’d listen that Abbott had effectively dudded him (which he had).

    Further, in his Reith-like way, he raised questions about Abbott’s desire for policy reform, not least on industrial relations.

    ”Abbo genuinely thought Reith had the numbers and he wanted him to win. But he wanted Stockdale to think that he had been a faithful supporter of the incumbent (president) also,” an Abbott colleague says.

    ”It was a classic case of Tony trying to walk both sides of the street.

  3. Something funny going on with the Age (maybe SMH as well). There was an article in the Age today which mentioned that on 23% of readers were Tories in 2008 and the rest mainly Labor/Green – I think that the Tory readers are probably a higher percentage now, as I’m sure many intelligent progressives have given up on the rag.

    However, perhaps coincidentally, there have been a few articles in the Age (SMH?) in the last few days attacking Abbott (for example today they noted that Turnbull called Direct Action bullshit). Have Fairfax realised why they lost more than half of their readers? Probably not.

  4. Yes, CW, I reckon more anti-Abbott comments in past few days in the Age (have a browse in coffee shop at times) than there have been in the last few years.

  5. SOHAR Crikey Whitey,
    while they have pompous Pete H Mark K and J Maley around I am not so hopeful, but hope you are right. They have lost at least 8 subscribers of family and friends of mine, plus when I mentioned on Twitter at least another 20 said they had stopped subscribing to the Fairfax papers

  6. [

    Henny Penny Henny Penny ‏@penny_henny 19m

    So @Channel9 thinks Greenpeace ad abt coke is offensive? Well I think Tom Waterhouse ad just screened during football broadcast is repellent ]
    I could not agree more.

  7. [davidwh
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    Fairfax always has been a little left leaning.]

    The age tried to emulate News, they have appointed an editor with an aim of turning the Financial Review into another shit sheet.

    Fairfax haven’t gained market share, the financial review subscriptions has got to be falling, not important but mine has gone. Why buy “right wing nutters rag light”, when you can have the real thing for free, at MacDonald in the morning, for that matter why vote Liberal light when you can have the real thing. The age lost their market to the internet, Labor lost their votes to the greens.

    The Age is dying, it might just be a little late to realise how stupid they have been. Mind you, picked one up today and was impressed that the standard had improved.

    Hopefully Gillard can pull Liberal light back into shape in the next four months, pity about gay marriage, pity she is down there in the refugee sewer with the Liberals throwing good money after bad.

    On the positive, the Labor aren’t proposing to plunge our economy into a recession, we are going to get a decent infrastructure for the information age, we will have a carbon trading scheme, the national disability insurance scheme is a reality and the front bench have collective IQ above room temperature.

  8. Excuse me. Disappeared to watch the footy. Go Geelong!

    I am encouraged by the small outbreak of analysis, on Fairfax.

    Davidwh, I would hardly describe their papers as left leaning.

    As I pointed out last night, the Age has employed the clearly right winger Ms Flint.

  9. Well, Tony Abbott is a thug, a bully, an inveterate liar, a complete ignoramus when it comes to the economy and probably anything else that requires a bit of in depth thinking. The few policies that he has announced are idiotic. And this man is going to become PM by default. Well, while I respect the office of PM I have zero respect for him.

  10. The Fairfax outlets aren’t left leaning – far from it. But unlike 70% of the papers owned by the local branch of that corrupt and criminal multinational News Corporation they are not actively campaigning for regime change in Australia.

  11. Yay, Geelong!

    Steve777. I question your view.

    Hitherto,the other than Murdoch have been lazy, slipshod, unquestioning, poll driven drivellers.

    They are the Speakeasy lap it up of our times.

  12. [Independent federal MP Rob Oakeshott has called on the Opposition to put up or shut up over its plans to move a motion of no-confidence against the Government.

    The Coalition has said for weeks that it will put a motion of no-confidence on the parliamentary notice paper this sitting period, however it has backed away from plans to do so on budget day.

    It will now only say the motion will be put on notice some time after the budget is handed down on Tuesday.

    Mr Oakeshott says Opposition Leader Tony Abbott should stop using the threat of a no-confidence motion as a political tactic and show he is serious about the measure. ]

  13. [South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has picked a fight with Western Australia’s Premier over GST distribution.

    Mr Weatherill has accused Colin Barnett of hypocrisy, over claims a deal has been struck which could strip South Australia of GST revenue of hundreds of millions of dollars.

    He says Mr Barnett wants to take an axe to South Australia’s GST funding share, more than $4 billion this financial year.

  14. Christopher Pyne is really un-hingeing on Lateline tonight …sounds and looks like a panic attack …

    Doesn’t sound like an opposition spokesman confident of victory in September …

  15. Very well written Kevin.

    My view is Possum on the primary dynamic from last year is pretty much dead on the money.

    I think there were a number of things happening together that accounted for the ALP’s rise at the end of last year (people’s lived experience vs Abbott’s rhetoric, the misogyny speech and a bit of optimism around the economy) but as soon as they filtered through the system, it went back to normal.

    If (more likely when) Abbott becomes PM, he’ll be in the exact same situation Gillard is in right now. The Coalition’s goal in office will be to do everything they can to divert attention from him. If the ALP get’s their act together quickly, the reverse situation could happen within a year, depending on the size of the defeat.

    That might be a little optimistic right now but I reckon we’re in a time when even a massive majority can be completely destroyed within a term … and given the commitments Abbott’s made, the electorate’s beliefs about issues and the internal situation in the Coalition, I reckon it’s a powder keg ready to explode

  16. frednk
    Abbott will have a chance to pretend to be a human being, but like the Daleks, he just doesn’t have the heart for it,

  17. Anywaym why are you talking to Seant isme. You do know he is just an IPA random PM Gillard insult generator?

  18. crikey whitey@1070

    Did I read that correctly?

    Kevin Bonham a Goth party goer?


    20-year scene veteran and sporadic DJ actually!

    Not into: depression as a lifestyle, excessive love of all Cure albums ever produced (though a few of them are actually very good), mArIlYn MaNsOn, bad facepaint or most other cliches sometimes misattributed to said subculture.

    Surprised how few posts there have been since I went out.

  19. Cool, Kevin Bonham.

    I too am surprised at the not only since you went out, but the paucity of posts well before.

    Maybe it takes a Newspoll. Or a leak.

  20. Saw Lateline and das poodle was a total fright. Hal expected Emma Alberici to tell him to p#ss off of her show if he was going to act like that.

    Then has a look at the OO. Saw:

    Now reading through the article, they actually listed some strong non-pay related reasons for restaurant failure as well, but seems the editor thought to emphasis the “out of control wages” aspect, rather than the “poor business skills” aspect. How surprisiment. 🙁

    Ive seen it said that money couldn’t buy the campaign that has been run against the Govt the last couple of years by the OO and seems to me very true.

  21. Abbott plan in his I/R policy to bring back the special police force (ABCC) for building workers which give them less democratic rights than any class of people in Australia, including the right to silence. These gestapo can imprison people who refuse to answer questions. And you dont even need to be involved in the building industry to be dragged into their “investigation”

    If governments empowered their Police Forces with these same powers there would an outcry about peoples rights but it seems its Ok for anyone in the building trade to have their rights violated.

  22. More trouble coming up for uncle Rupe:

    In a written statement, Ms May said the independent panel would “shine a light” on the circumstances of the murder and investigate links between private investigators, police and journalists at the News of the World.

  23. “The outlook for exports remains strong,” the RBA said. “Given the significant investment that has occurred to date, and that is still in the pipeline, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics expects bulk commodity exports to increase at an annual rate of around 10 per cent over the next six years.”

    Damn that poorly managed economy, Aust is still doing so well. TA will find a way to spin the growing economy as a bad thing

    Read more:

  24. Magic Dragon.

    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Sally McManus · 55 followers
    19 hours ago near Sydney, New South Wales ·

    Tony Abbott has just released the policy he will implement if he wins the 14 September election and gets control of the Senate as John Howard did when he introduced WorkChoices. Here

    gosh puff your famous just found this linked in twitter

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