BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition

With barely four months left to go, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains more or less where it’s been since February.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.

Other matters:

• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.

• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.

• Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition”

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  1. In relation to the previous thread and discussion about cattle exporters asking the Federal government to buy up excess cattle, and using the suspension of that trade to Indonesia after cruelty was proven to occur to those cattle during slaughter as the guilt trip, I am reposting my reply here.

    1. The gov’t was absolutely correct to suspend live export to Indonesia. The industry had a responsibility to ensure the cattle they sold were not sold into circumstances of cruelty. The product the meat industry sells is alive, it is not a sack of grain. That is why they get high prices for it.

    2. Public revulsion to cruelty in those abattoirs was inevitable and totally predictable. The industry has no-one to blame but itself for NOT risk-managing for that business fact.

    3. Indonesia was and is moving to self-sufficiency in beef. Meat producers who did not plan for that contingency have no truck blaming the Federal gov’t for their own poor business management, and being stuck with unsold stock.

    4. The cattle which are now without food are the responsibility of the graziers who own and in most cases I assume, bred them. These are are living beings, not sacks of wheat. They have a right to care, including food. That is why beef commands a higher sale-price than a sack of wheat. If the cattle need food it is the graziers responsibility to supply it or to move them to where there is food. If the grazier loses money doing this, that is secondary to the welfare of the cattle. Any grazier not providing adequate food should be charged with animal cruelty.

    5. The cattle, if they are to be slaughtered because of lack of feed, should be processed at an abattoir designed for humane slaughter. Again, any pain and suffering brought about by poor business decisions of graziers should not be born by the animals, but by the people involved. If this causes some graziers to fail, then that is a regretful necessity of business. Poor businesses based on poor planning and flawed decisions fail all the time. In free market economics this Darwinian effect is regarded as healthy.

    6. The gov’t does not buy all the furniture in failing furniture businesses and gift it to Papua New Guinea, even if the stores have been ‘in the family for five generations’.

    7. The state of the graziers breeding cattle for a falling market in Indonesia is entirely that industry’s own fault. I suggest the Federal gov’t tell them to go whistle Dixie and look after their own livestock properly or risk animal welfare prosecution.

  2. Howie Klein @downwithtyranny

    Elizabeth Warren introducing her 1st bill today– to lower student loan interest rates from 3.4% to 0.75%– same rate gov’t gives the banks

  3. Sir Alex Ferguson is retiring as Manager of Manchester United. What a career he has had. At the end of an era, someone will have huge shoes to fill.

  4. I owe I owe its off to work I go.
    Bet $100 on PMJG to win yesterday.
    Maguire Bob can i join your
    cheer squad?
    62 eyes of blue ,skinny legs,wok belly.I’m sure I’ll blend in.

  5. One good thing now I just skim through the night’s posts, amazing people like Rummel Mod Lib etc are supposed to hold down responsible jobs during the day yet post most of the night, their stamina/zeal is incredible.

  6. Good Morning

    Barrie Cassidy on News Breakfast slams SMH article on yesterday’s PMJG visit to Brisbane School.

    He quietly points out the article says the complete opposite of what happened. Vision was shown to prove the point.

  8. amazing people like Rummel Mod Lib etc are supposed to hold down responsible jobs during the day yet post most of the night, their stamina/zeal is incredible.

    Well according to mysay, im going to loose my plumbing job soon anyway with the coming Lib government.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    On ABC24 this morning Barrie Cassidy gave the SMH a real broadside over manipulating the news over PMJG’s visit to a school It was written as though she was mobed by an abusive, sandwich-throwing throng of schoolchildren when in fact the exact opposite was true. They showed footage to make the point.

    Ah! The machinations of people of calibre.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-developer-the-100k-gift-and-the-highly-effective-mp-20130508-2j83o.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/tinkler-wife-face-threat-of-bankruptcy-20130508-2j7z7.html
    This is a bit rough.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/child-sex-abuse-victims-set-to-lose-compensation-20130508-2j83h.html
    Faint praise from Junior Pinstripe, Mark Kenny.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-fine-reforms-slip-between-the-gap-20130508-2j7vb.html
    Peter FitzSimons with his usually excellent contribution. In particular read the last paragraph.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/mate-against-mates-johns-must-tell-the-truth-20130508-2j8er.html
    Who would have thought that this blaring headline relates to a 2015 taxation reduction of a meagre $1.58/week planned for a carbon price increase that won’t apply anyway!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/another-sweetener-ditched-as-budget-sours-20130508-2j83f.html
    Alan Moir captures Captain Swanny in a somewhat David Rowe style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope with a good depiction of Greg Combet.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg takes a swipe ast the millionaires of calibre that pay no tax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe also uses a nautical theme today. He has Andrew Robb done well.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  12. And from the Land of the Free –

    The religious mafia of the GOP take no prisoners.
    http://americablog.com/2013/05/il-gop-forces-out-party-chair-for-support-of-gay-marriage.html
    Yet they support pricks like this!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/08/awkwa-ard-sanford-win-could-spell-trouble-for-house-gop-leadership/
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/08/video-mark-sanford-cheater-hypocrite-trespasser-has-no-wisdom-to-impart/
    Some good cartoons on sexual assault in the military.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/08/cartoons-of-the-day-military-sex-assaults-on-the-rise/
    And one on the idiots who believe they need to arm up in order to avoid tyranny.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/07/bonus-cartoon-of-the-day-fighting-tyranny/
    Jon Stewart takes apart the NRA convention.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/stewart-nra-convention-same-lineup-cpac-be
    Yes, guns!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/08/florida-3-year-old-fatally-shoots-self_n_3237898.html

  14. William – haven’t been through all the data yet but the Aust Nat Uni survey has some interesting graphs – Considerations in the voting decisions 52% on policy 15% on party leaders. Well, the libs better get cracking on the policy front as they sure as heck don’t have any at the moment.

  15. Kids came home last night carrying on about PM being attacked by a vegemite sandwich – missed the Cassidy interview, maybe they’ll repeat it??

  18. mikehilliard

    Ah, are you a supporter of the ‘magic sandwich’ theory?

    I believe there were several sandwiches myself.

    You don’t really believe that was a schoolgirl do you?

  19. Ettridge from the Oz

    However Mr Ettridge, who is representing himself, is confident the court will find his application has substance.

    “I think I’m going in on the high ground with a very strong case,” he told AAP on Wednesday.

    “It’s quite clear that Tony Abbott has repeatedly admitted that he’s committed this offence (and) I can’t imagine it can go anywhere but for the court to accept there is a case to answer.”

    Mr Ettridge said he expects Mr Abbott’s legal team to argue he lodged his application outside the required time frame

  20. Who cares about a bloody sandwich.

    While Australia’s crap political reporting focuses on a stupid sandwich, including putting silly questions to the PM about it, we the audience are left to find out through other sources what the PM is going to PNG for.

    We are very poorly served by the media in this country.

  22. Just wondering.
    Would a woman of calibre who has been earning a pre-tax income of $150000 pa and, through the use of accountants of calibre end up paying negligible income tax, be eligible for Abbott’s Wunderkind PPL $75000?
    Would this be taxable?
    And couuld the accountants of calibre minimise it if it were applicable?

  23. What you won’t see reported by Australia’s media:

    In Port Moresby, the Prime Minister will meet Prime Minister Peter O’Neill and his Cabinet to discuss priority bilateral interests and cooperation on shared regional challenges.

    Ms Gillard will also call on Papua New Guinea’s Governor-General, Sir Michael Ogio GCMG CBE, and meet the Leader of the Opposition, the Honourable Belden Namah MP.

    Ms Gillard will address the Papua New Guinea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, visit the $19 billion PNG LNG project and see first-hand how Australia’s development assistance is delivering real benefits for Papua New Guineans.

    http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/prime-minister-visit-papua-new-guinea

  25. Flaneur, I think what Mike Hilliard is referring to by “book suppository” is Abbott’s “Battlelines”.

  26. I’ve talked about the problems at Wangaratta council before.

    The new council was elected late last year. There were strong rumours that Sophie Mirabella backed several of the candidates, and she wrote to six of the newly elected councillors, saying that ‘good had triumphed over evil’ and that now corruption could be stamped out (as a result of which one of the former councillors has threatened to sue her for defamation).

    Just to give you an idea of Sophie’s adept political touch, here’s the situation six months later —-

    WANGARATTA Council has moved a step closer to being sacked following the resignation of Cr Lisa McInerney and senior staff members taking stress leave.

    Cr McInerney has quit less than six months after being re-elected and two directors, Ray Park and Ruth Tai, have taken leave for extended periods.

    ..Embattled chief executive Doug Sharp has been ordered by doctors to take stress-related leave after being rushed to hospital on Tuesday.

    Local Government Minister Jeanette Powell stepped into the crisis yesterday by appointing an inspector of municipal administration, Peter Stephenson, to Wangaratta Council for the next three months.

    He will report directly to the minister on the conduct of councillors and staff, in a pre-cursor to the council potentially being sacked.

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1489165/over-the-edge-mcinerney-pulls-pin/?cs=11

  29. Oh dear. In four months, Sophie and her ilk might be running the bloody country!!

    Message to the electorate – You Make Your Bed, You Lie In It.

  32. Some policy analysis from the msm!

    Only a small number of women would be eligible for the maximum rate of parental leave under the Coalition’s scheme.

    Mr Abbott also faces claims his policy would cost about $5 billion a year, compared with $3.4 billion a year estimated at the last election.

    What? A costings blow out? No, surely not. That only happens to Labor….

    According to statistics from the Australian Tax Office, only 160,000 women earned between $101,350 and $154,205 last financial year – 3.8 per cent of women who filed tax returns.

    Workers’ ages were not provided, which means the number of women eligible for paid parental leave would be even lower because the figure included women too old to have children.

    As I said yesterday, if you’re earning $150k it’s highly unlikely you’re in your twenties or thirties (although at least two of my friends were…)

    It also included women who earned slightly more than the upper threshold for the scheme.

    Is there an upper threshold? I’m not sure whether you don’t get it if you earn more than $150k, it’s just that you won’t be paid more. (Interesting question, that).

    The Tax Office figures reveal more women than men worked for lower salaries. Women were overrepresented in annual income figures up to $42,057.

    Once that point was reached, there were more men than women in every higher range of taxable income.

    About 80 per cent of women earned less than $63,000 a year, according to the Tax Office figures.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/top-parental-leave-rate-pie-in-sky-for-most-20130508-2j7yi.html#ixzz2SkEbXstb

  33. guytaur

    In Victoria, it was Moreland council, due to perceived links to the Labor party. (Labor party backed councillors had the utter cheek to attend local Labor party meetings, where council issues were discussed…)

  35. rummel & co think Abbott doesn’t need any policies on which to campaign ( they have promised us “40 fully-costed” ones which have been “ready to go” since the beginning of 2012 …but that’s by the by …ho hum …doesn’t matter …it was a ‘non-core’ promise anyway …who needs policies when we’ve got smear/personal abuse/lies/shonky costings/a compliant media prepared to manipulate & beat up even a fecking sandwich ….to distract from our PM’s great work….Oh and it’s all julia’s fault anyway!!! )

    I’ll tell you something though ….the media can misrepresent & Turnbull can mis-inform as much as he likes ….but Labor’s NBN is a sure & certain vote winner ….

    ….and Abbott will NOT be able to avoid the hard questions …NOR three head to head debates with Julia …

    This ain’t anywhere near over …pass the popcorn …

  37. zoomster

    I like the idea of recognising local government in the Constitution.

    However its stuff like this that is most likely to be getting the public voting no in my opinion.

  38. I’m currently on grandparenting leave 🙂 but I have always got by with limited sleep ever since I was doing adult studies in the 70’s through to the 90’s. it’s just a habit now.

  39. This tweet is from ABC Tech.

    I’m not sure when I last saw the faster proliferation of a single website than howfastisthenbn.com.au #NBN

    My daughter had initially alerted me to this website. She said that all her ui friends were passing it around too. Maybe just maybe, the young are going to vote accordingly!!

  40. We survived five years of Keating we will survive three years of Abbott assuming MT doesn’t replace him in that time. There is precedence for that now 🙂

  41. Lynchpin @ 29

    Oh dear. In four months, Sophie and her ilk might be running the bloody country!!

    Message to the electorate – You Make Your Bed, You Lie In It.

    That would be the perfect pre-election slogan for the Labor Party…

  43. Interesting times for Victoria

    Hope its not the death penalty or tax the commuters policy

    “@bellfrances: Coalition party room meeting wraps up with applause. Mystery legislation to be introduced this afternoon #springst”

  46. Bit of momentum gathering about how bad Coalition Broadband is in reality ….

    Love mikehilliards ….”Fibre to the NO!!” Can I use it on Twitter Mike?

  48. Turnbull hasn’t been a happy chappy since November 2009 but at least he’s a sticker and hasn’t worked against his leader … YET.

  49. rummel
    Posted Thursday, May 9, 2013 at 7:25 am | PERMALINK
    amazing people like Rummel Mod Lib etc are supposed to hold down responsible jobs during the day yet post most of the night, their stamina/zeal is incredible.

    Well according to mysay, im going to loose my plumbing job soon anyway with the coming Lib government.

    Missed that comment Rummel good one 😀

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