BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition

With barely four months left to go, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains more or less where it’s been since February.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.

Other matters:

• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.

• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.

• Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.2-44.8 to Coalition”

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  1. Main 10 News story is business groups complaining Abbotts IR changes don’t go far enough.

    Very little reaction one way or another in most quarters.

  2. Questions were Asked to Joyce will he do the same as the state national party are doing in northern Tablelands

    Telling people Labor’s Broadband policy is better

    Abbott looked pisses

  3. [Oh FFS. Seriously, there needs to be an IQ test for votes.]

    Perhaps an income test as well.

    So sick of lowlifes, losers and bludgers ruining this country. Didn’t Labor legislate to let crims vote?

  4. M Bob

    Joyce supports the Local Govt referendum as well, I guess now he is a Nat he can dump his LNP clothes at last.

  5. […companies have been fully aware of the Coalition policy.]

    Bollocks. There is no policy. When? Why? How? At what cost? Implementation? Process? Replaced with what? What compensation payments will go? Are there guarantees the cost of power will go down? How will they police it? What happens to current falling CO2 emissions? How does this effect targets beyond 5%? Is there a productivity commission report? What happens to the renewable industry, and at what cost to the future economy? Nobody knows anything.. least of all the morons suggesting it. Again… bollocks.

  6. Call me a sceptic, but I don’t believe for a minute that my electricity bill will go down as soon as Abbott cuts the carbon price. Then there’s the strata fees, I don’t think they’ll go down either. Or all those take away places that put their prices up using the carbon price as an excuse. Their prices won’t go down either. All that’s going to happen is that I’ll end up with less take home pay when Abbott takes away my tax cuts.

  7. So far no talk about labor on the Drum, all about the opposition as if they are already i power. I’m sure I’ve died and entered an alternate reality.

  9. An IQ test for voters would certainly help the progressive side of politics. Reactionaries are more likely to be controlled by their lizard brain.

  10. It is compulsory for you to enrol for federal elections if you are:

    •18 years of age or over, and
    •an Australian citizen (or a British subject who was on the Commonwealth electoral roll on 25 January 1984).
    If you are serving a full-time prison sentence of less than three years you can vote in federal elections.

    If your sentence is three years or longer, you can remain on the roll but you are not entitled to vote until you are released from prison.

    AEC 2006 that was under Howard if I remember right

  11. not Government decision

    the Electoral and Referendum Amendment said that anyone in prison when the election writ is issued would be disqualified from voting.

    However, the High Court of Australia said that these provisions violated the Australian Constitution and were therefore invalid.

  13. Bollocks smollocks anyone who isn’t aware of the Coalition policy to reverse the carbon tax would have to be living in a cave

  15. davidwh

    So what, they have a deal with The Commonwealth. Breaking contracts costs money and Abbott has allocated none.

  17. I take no notice of betting odds, but this is a little pleasing. TA may not have it all his own way?
    [The bookies still are pricing in a minority for the Coalition in the Senate. The odds of the Coalition gaining a Senate majority are $9 while $1.03 is available for those of the view that the Senate will be hostile to an Abbott government.]

    Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/10/election/bet-lodge-coalition-quickening#ixzz2SsScsjXL

  18. Davidwh

    yes

    my point is not on the business about carbon credits, the fact that Abbott is a liar saying there will not be a carbon Tax

    when all what people already have done and will do is read the direct action and see there is a harsher cabon tax waiting foe them

  21. [A worldwide gang of criminals stole $US45 million ($A44.80 million) in a matter of hours by hacking their way into a database of prepaid debit cards and then draining cash machines around the globe, US federal prosecutors said – and outmoded American card technology may be partly to blame.
    Seven people were under arrest on Thursday in the US in connection with the case, which prosecutors said involved thousands of thefts from ATMs using bogus magnetic swipe cards carrying information from Middle Eastern banks.]
    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/hackers-steal-45m-in-atm-breach-20130510-2jd6u.html#ixzz2SsTma3Zs

  23. David
    Yes we all know about the SLOGAN David, but we know bugger all about anything else. If however you have a detailed POLICY on the topic then please share it with these well informed businesses you talk about because I’m sure they haven’t got a clue what it actually means.

  25. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 6:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh FFS. Seriously, there needs to be an IQ test for votes.

    Perhaps an income test as well.

    So sick of lowlifes, losers and bludgers ruining this country. Didn’t Labor legislate to let crims vote?]

    Hey Sean stop talking about yourself it is embarrassing for the rest of us :devil:

  26. [poroti
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Thanks will go off and watch them, the scottish I guy I linked your contribution to last night , was in raptures told me he had sent it over to Scotland

  27. MB – Direct Action will cost $3.2 billion, plus the compensation to polluters estimated at about $5 billion the money will come from people paying more tax.

    ST may well say electricity prices will go down, but he does not explain how Abbott will find the $3.2 billion without increasing taxes.

    So while electricity prices MAY go down, taxes will have to increase. Abbott and Hockey have been telling us for years the budget is a mess and we are terribly in debt so the money to pay for DA could not come from current revenue

  28. BK. I just watched the footage on 9. The burning area is massive. Each summer I dread what could happen in the Hills, foothills and so on.

  29. [Gecko
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink in reply to Tisme who wrote:
    So sick of lowlifes, losers and bludgers ruining this country.

    Then vote Labor.]

    Better still – emigrate.

  30. Even in the Liberal manifesto “Real Solution for all Australians” there is as much detail as what we see in Abbott’s I/R policy.

    The devil is in what he does not say more than what he states.

  31. POROTI
    Loved the little girls, that would have been me if I had ever been allowed near a team 🙂
    The second at the Tattoo were amazing I have been a NZ Marching girl team at the Tattoo but I think these were better
    Thank you

  33. mari

    My mum was a “marching girl” . For me the amazing thing was/is that even back then the mini skirt kilts were part of her uniform.

  35. Seems like the Govt has some large infrastructure plans to be announced on Budget night. Probably more than the deficit.

    You want a surplus – well no infrastructure. I wonder how Tony will react?

  38. [poroti
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 7:15 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    My mum was a “marching girl” . For me the amazing thing was/is that even back then the mini skirt kilts were part of her uniform.

    My sister was a captain(leader) of a very successful Marching girl team, me I have 2 left feet plus am left handed and have to check which finger my ring is on to see which direction I am going. Mind you am able to navigate, without too many stuff ups as long as I keep an eye on my ring finger 😀

    1034
    Gecko
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Not too late Mari… surely!! PB marching girls unite!!

    Thank you Gecko but afraid it was too late for me as soon as I was born, see above explanation

    BTW Thinking of both of you- fingers really crossed re second opinion

  39. Rua

    This is a key advantage for Labor. The Coalition has locked itself in to going backwards… Labor, moves forward. I know which side of the slate I’d rather be on.

  40. Whilst all such events are deeply felt, it was especially poignant to see on Gourmet Farmer the fabulously rustic fish’n chip kiosk at Dunalley, near My Say, before it was destroyed in the summer fires.

  41. Thanks Mari… we’re feeling very positive at the moment and it has made the world of difference.

    Thanks to you too BH (from a few days ago.)

  46. [Gecko
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Thanks Mari… we’re feeling very positive at the moment and it has made the world of difference.

    Thanks to you too BH (from a few days ago.)]

    Good that has made my night

  48. Good to see Newman spent $4.5 million for todays talkfest. I would not complain but he tells me we are rooned and he will have to sell Lawrence Springborg to pay for it. 😆

  49. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 at 7:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Good to see Newman spent $4.5 million for todays talkfest. I would not complain but he tells me we are rooned and he will have to sell Lawrence Springborg to pay for it.]

    Don’t think he will raise much for Laurie S will he? :devil:

  50. So it looks like Abbott actually intends to implement his PPL plan. His IR plan seems to be relatively benign, but will he go further (like Howard) if he won a Senate majority (or could cobble one together with fringe right-wingers)? What about ‘Direct Action’. Surely he couldn’t really be intending to implement that idiotic plan. After all, it was cobbled together by Dodgy Brothers consulting in the wake of the defeat of the ETS to give an appearance of the Coalition doing something about climate change, even though most of them don’t believe there’s a problem.

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