Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

One day, four federal opinion polls: Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, ReachTEL.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.

Also out today:

Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).

ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).

• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,761 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. [And how does this get a run before Gay marriage or recognising indigenous people in the constitution?..]

    1. I’m pretty sure the Indigenous amendment is already on the agenda

    2. Same sex marriage should not be recognised in the constitution, it should be recognised in law. The constitution doesn’t exist to be a populist document.

    3. Whether you agree with the amendment or not, Federal and local government cooperation is a constitutional issue and its inclusion in the constitution is an issue worth debating.

  2. The current state of journalism.

    [Michael Roff, CEO of the Australian Private Hospitals Association, estimates the carbon tax will add up to $36 million to private hospital expenses in 2012/13.

    With annual revenue of around $10 billion, Mr Roff admitted the impost was “very small” in percentage terms. But the private hospital sector, he added, was a “low margin, high turnover game” and any additional costs would have an impact on their businesses, he said.]

    Could not the journalist have done a quick search to check the veracity of the claim that the private hospital sector, was a “low margin, high turnover game”.

    A look at the results for Ramsay Health Care the largest private hospital operator in Australia shows:

    [Australia’s largest private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care today announced a
    Group core net profit after tax from continuing operations (before non-core items) of
    $148.2 million for the six months to 31 December 2012, a 12.3% increase on the
    previous corresponding period.]

    Profit increased 12.3% after the carbon tax,Ramsay’s Australia business achieved revenue growth of 7% and EBIT growth of 10% during the period.

  3. davidwh

    Nicely put, it is hard to believe that Toen can win a campaign on trust but there is something wrong with a Government that keeps making mistakes that are totally avoidable.

    Many will say but the economic has changed, i would argue that it has done what i and many others including earlier budgets predicted would occur.

    If anything the economy is looking better now than it looked 12 months ago with the U.S now showing real improvement and Asian continuing to be solid and Europe while broke hasn’t folded into bankruptcy.

    The worry is this Government does have several strong policies to point too and can be proud of its economy performance yet at times has been poorly managed.

  4. The Direct Action policy is just as stupid economically as the PPL scheme.

    If i had to award votes for the worst alternative policies it would be something like

    3. Direct Action
    2. Slow nbn
    1. PPL

  5. Carey Moore @ 1751

    I agree – Indigenous recognition was deferred because it’s main proponents did not think it had much of a chance in the toxic political environment of election 2013. It needs a bit of clear air. Maybe Tony Abbott could earn some respect by giving the issue some serious attention beyond motherhood statements – he does claim to be concerned about the plight of Australia’s indigenous people.

    As for marriage – that’s not in the constitution – it’s a matter of law.

    Recognition of local government would just remove uncertainty regarding financial transfers from Federal direct to local government to support specific programs, as has been happening for decades.

  6. And again could not the journalist ask the obvious question?

    [A crisis meeting of North Queensland graziers has urged the Federal Government to break the trading impasse with Indonesia over live exports with a foreign aid food package.

    The cruel reality for tens of thousands of cattle across the state’s north and west is that they are simply not worth the cost of trucking to market.

    At the meeting it was suggested the Australian Government buy up 100,000 head of cattle now eating their way out of house and home and donate them to Indonesia as an aid package. Local grazier and summit organiser Barry Hughes says that way it would be beneficial not only to the northern beef industry and the Indonesian people – but a Federal Government which, he says, made a massive blunder two years ago by suspending the live cattle trade to the industry’s most important market.]

    So it is not worth the cost of trucking them to local Australian markets, are transportation costs to Indonesia that much lower and prices in Indonesia that much higher?

    Or is it that selling these cattle on the domestic market may drive prices for meat overall lower.

    When bananas hit $22 a kilo after the cyclones a grower suggested it may be a good idea if replanting was restricted so that the select group of growers could enjoy higher prices and better profits rather than a return to the days of bananas at $3 a kilo. Fortunately for consumers he was ignored.

    What has happened to journalism when they used to check claims, have they become so overwhelm in their desire to report any negative story that they do not bother to do a little bit of investigation.

    The blunder of the live export trade being suspended was not the government it was all the cattle export industry own doing. They had funding to ensure the trade was carried out in accordance with the guidelines.

  7. A real horror film



  8. [Maybe Tony Abbott could earn some respect by giving the issue some serious attention beyond motherhood statements – he does claim to be concerned about the plight of Australia’s indigenous people.]

    Heroic Tone, Australia’s Rudyard, the white mans burden.

  9. [If i had to award votes for the worst alternative policies it would be something like

    3. Direct Action
    2. Slow nbn
    1. PPL]

    3. Direct action will only happen in a form of taxpayer payments to business like Turnballs $10 million rain making scheme. Farmers will be paid for the acres of hay they grow and Pitt streeters for the number of trees on their hobby farms.

    2. Slow NBN will be only for the unwashed to restrict their download of porn and Fox programs, business will get subsidised fibre to the premises plus the added bonus of a tax deduction for it.

    1, PPL will become a non-core promise due to the state of the finances left by the previous bad government.

  10. 1. The gov’t was absolutely correct to suspend live export to Indonesia. The industry had a responsibility to ensure the cattle they sold were not sold into circumstances of cruelty. The product the meat industry sells is alive, it is not a sack of grain. That is why they get high prices for it.

    2. Public revulsion to cruelty in those abattoirs was inevitable and totally predictable. The industry has no-one to blame but itself for NOT risk-managing for that business fact.

    3. Indonesia was and is moving to self-sufficiency in beef. Meat producers who did not plan for that contingency have no truck blaming the Federal gov’t for their own poor business management.

    4. The cattle which are now without food are the responsibility of the graziers who own and in most cases, bred them. They are living beings, not sacks of wheat. They have a right to care, including food. That is why beef commands a higher sale-price than a sack of wheat. If the cattle need food it is the graziers responsibility to supply it or to move them to where there is food. If the grazier loses money doing this, that is secondary to the welfare of the cattle. Any grazier not providing adequate food should be charged with animal cruelty.

    5. The cattle, if they are to be slaughtered because of lack of feed, should be processed at an abattoir designed for humane slaughter. Again, any pain and suffering brought about by poor business decisions of graziers should not be born by the animals, but by the people involved. If this causes some graziers to fail, then that is a regretful necessity of business. Poor businesses based on poor planning and flawed decisions fail all the time. In free market economics this Darwinian effect is regarded as healthy.

    6. The gov’t does not buy all the furniture in failing furniture businesses and gift it to Papua New Guinea, even if the stores have been ‘in the family’ for five generations.

    7. The state of the graziers breeding cattle for a falling market in Indonesia is entirely that industry’s own fault. I suggest the Federal gov’t tell them to go whistle Dixie and look after their own livestock properly or risk animal welfare prosecution.

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