Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

One day, four federal opinion polls: Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, ReachTEL.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.

Also out today:

Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).

ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).

• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,761 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Geez Louise, are we really debating the popularity of a YouTube video? Who cares? It’s just a stupid political video. It’s going to get plenty of views as all political videos do, regardless of which side it promotes.

  2. rummel

    “How right he was!. Libs should dust off that billboard and put it back up this election.”

    Weren’t you telling me a few weeks back that if Rudd was reinstalled you’d hand out HTV cards for Labor?

    You’re aware that was his ad right? Or back then did you feel differently about him?

    You’re rather anachronistic.

  3. “”I don’t think she was being blasted out at all because she’s a woman,” Ms Cox told The Australian. “The reason they are going after her is because she is the Prime Minister, not because she’s a woman. The party is in trouble.

    “If anything, she has been protected by the process and the party loyalty rather than being punished by it for gender.

    “Today when she was defending her record she came across with limited vision, which doesn’t include disadvantaged groups like single parents. “She’s not sympathetic to women who have been forced on to the dole and maybe a change in leadership would have led to someone who would have listened to the evidence.”

    She is clever, that Eva Cox.

  4. Carey Moore

    “Geez Louise, are we really debating the popularity of a YouTube video? Who cares? It’s just a stupid political video. It’s going to get plenty of views as all political videos do, regardless of which side it promotes.”

    The reason I’m talking about it is because certain people here are describing it as ‘viral’ which has very specific connotations, none of which are met by that particular effort.

    Just sayin’.

    Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
    I voted Kev 07 in that election.

    Do you still live in his seat?]

    I cant remember Labor on any of the posters! it was just kev, kev kev and i liked the bloke.

  6. [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK

    “I voted Kev 07 in that election.”

    Hence my confusion.]

    Nothing to be confused about. I dis liked workchoices as it went to far and Kev seemed to be a safe pair of hand with the budget and was not a union hack. Then along came Gillard with the union hacks and there went budget…….

  7. rummel

    So you agree that with Workchoices (and JWH) we WEREN’T better off then? All I needed to hear and why that ad was so effective.:)

  8. In the early naughties Kevvie was my MP however I didn’t vote for him. By 2007 I had been re-distributed out of Griffith and into Bonner so never got the opportunity to elect a PM.

  9. And rummel it was the union ‘hacks’ that defeated JWH and initiated, led, orchestrated, funded and organised the anti-Workchoices campaign you supported.

    They thank you for your vote.;)

  10. [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 11:09 pm | PERMALINK

    So you agree that with Workchoices (and JWH) we WEREN’T better off then?]

    Im not going to agree with anything close to that.

  11. rummel

    “Im not going to agree with anything close to that”

    So because you ‘liked’ Rudd you voted Howard out in spite of the fact you thought he put Australia in such a great position? Just trying to understand your rationale here.

    Rudd isn’t even that good looking. Don’t get it.

  12. I’m still waiting for rummel to explain to me the logic underpinning his certainty that Newspoll won’t/can’t move back to 51/49 as it was from Nov 2012 – January 2013 ….waiting ….waiting …

    …. **crickets** … **crickets** …

  13. [markjs
    Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m still waiting for rummel to explain to me the logic underpinning his certainty that Newspoll won’t/can’t move back to 51/49 as it was from Nov 2012 – January 2013 ….waiting ….waiting …]


  14. [markjs
    Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m still waiting for rummel to explain to me the logic underpinning his certainty that Newspoll won’t/can’t move back to 51/49 as it was from Nov 2012 – January 2013 ….waiting ….waiting …]

    And for a more precise answer. Gillards gets the best poll results when she is on holiday, and Gillard is not taking any larges blocks of leave between now and the election. 🙂

  15. The Liberals want to create an environment that is as friendly as possible to corporate Australia and the local chapters of multinational conglomerates, who want to get on with the business of creating wealth (for the proprietors and executives) without being bothered by the need to pay tax or externalities like the environment. So the medium and longer term aim is to: wind back employee bargaining power and hence remuneration and conditions; wind back regulation and any other impediment to making money; wind back taxation or at least offload as much of it as possible onto wage and salary earners; and privatise those parts of health, education and anything else that might return a profit while dumping the remainder on the public purse. Of course if things go wrong, for example war or economic downturn, they want the taxpayers to pay for defence or to buy 100,000 cattle for Indonesia or whatever else might help.

    All the rest, including dog whistling to racists, bleating about allegedly broken promises, trashing the economy and, for some ‘conservatives’, even the social conservatism, is to persuade the punters to vote against their interests – a lot of sound and fury signifying not very much. For a couple of decades they’ll support handouts to foster attitudes and values friendly to corporate interests, e.g. generous PPL provisions for the wealthy and payments to private health funds via rebates to policyholders. Loading up young people with debt also advances their cause.

    It has often been said that if you want to see the future look at the USA. That’s probably a reasonably accurate picture after a decade of ‘Liberal’ rule – untrammelled corporate power (think the gun lobby), working poor and health crises resulting in bankruptcy.

  16. Another question …can the liberal supporters here please explain what policies Abbott & Co. are planning to campaign on …

    …Will it be Abbott’s “signature” PPL for wealthy mums scheme?

    …Will it be Turnbull (Mr Broadband) & his 19th Century National Fibre to the Node Copper to the Mini-Node Copper to the Home scheme?

    …Will it be Hunt’s Direct (Non) Action plan to pay polluters to pollute scheme?

    …Will it be their visionary Better Schools (for rich kids) scheme?

    …Will it be their humanitarian “Tow Back the Bastards …if Indonesia don’t declare war on us first” Asylum Seeker scheme?

    …Will it be their “Let’s get back to screwing the workers” Workchoices II IR scheme?

    …Will it be their “You must be joking …Same Sex Marriage?? …NEVER!!” scheme?

    …Will it be their “We’ll get economy growing again …Surpluses every year” scheme?

    …Will it be their “Let’s get Tony Abbott trained up for next years Pt Macquarie Ironman scheme?

    Seriously …WTF are the coalition going to campaign on???

  17. Labor starring in Liberal ads – because the ‘Liberals’ (and their rural socialist allies) have no sensible or coherent message to present on their own behalf. When they get into government they will be actually be expected to do something. I have already set out what I believe to be their agenda.

  18. That is a reasonably useless advert, unless they are going for a subliminal effect. I won’t point out what I think are the flaws, let’s just say I like it just the way it is.

  19. [Seriously …WTF are the coalition going to campaign on???]

    Nothing! they are going to agree with most of Labors policy just like “me too Kev” aka NDIS and campaign against Gillard.

  20. Unless Labor put a donkey in as opposition leader after this election, i can’t see the Libs holding on for more than two terms.

  21. If Eve Cox did say that gender has nothing to do with why the PM is in trouble then i find myself in complete agreement.

    The PM problems can be summed up by the past two days. The government has a track record of going out hard in one direction then having to back track.

    It doesn’t matter who the leader is at some point the voters will go this is a rabble and in any other workplace there would be heads rolling.

  22. []

    And how does this get a run before Gay marriage or recognising indigenous people in the constitution?..

    I know, there not Labor wedge issues. High five Gillard!

  23. Steve777

    Sadly in recent campaigns each party has focused on the negative aspects of the other side.

    The only way forward for the Government is to focus on

    Low interest rates
    Low unemployment rate

    Everything else is noise

  24. The Coalition will campaign on trust, control and economic management. Hard to believe Abbott can win an election when trust is a key element but nevertheless it is looking like he will.

    I doubt too many people will care much about specific policies unless they are way out of left field.

    I don’t believe Labor can win too many votes on Coalition black holes given how much their economic credibility has been destroyed.

    I don’t believe leadership will be much of an issue as both leaders are held in pretty low esteem.

    I don’t think people have big expectations of TAPM other than he isn’t JGPM.

    Sobering, scary but basically how it is.

  25. Well, the Liberals will have a donkey as PM. Unfortunately it’s not possible for Labor to bring Paul Keating out of retirement. He’d make mincemeat of Abbott. But an attack dog who can scream blue murder if Abbott drops ‘Direct Inaction’ or his idiotic PPL scheme; and who can join with the Greens the block either should he try to implement them. In the case of PPL maybe a budget saving measure like capping it at the average (or preferably the median) wage. Hold the line until Abbott makes himself both a complete ass through his incompetence and ignorance and unpopular through his austerity drive – one year should do it – and then dare him to call a Double Dissolution.

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