GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.
Also out today:
• Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).
• ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).
• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, the Coalition’s primary vote is virtually unchanged from two weeks ago on 47 per cent as is Labor’s on 31 per cent. The Coalition’s lift of one point and Labor’s fall of one point were both within the margin of error and the Greens and “others” were unchanged on 10 and 12 per cent respectively. Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the Coalition has kept a clear election-winning lead with 56 per cent to Labor’s 44 per cent. While voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister and Mr Abbott was virtually unchanged in the past two weeks, support for both leaders lifted on the question of who would make the better prime minister with Ms Gillard’s support rising from 35 to 37 per cent and Mr Abbott’s from 40 to 42 per cent, maintaining his five-point lead.
Abbott, future PM
So 6 months out and the trend is 55-45.
Joy.
Abbott leads on PPM 42/37 virtually the same as last time.
So with 131 or so days remaining until our date with Anthony it looks like the polls have stabilized with the trend leaning slightly towards the Liberals.
Nothing much changed in any of these polls.
I don’t think the coalition can take anything for granted and the polls will certainly narrow closer to the election but as has been repeatedly pointed out by those more eloquent than myself “people just don’t give a shit any more”… And that is bad news for the ALP if people are disconnecting at this time when they really should be absorbing all the spin from all the parties.
So ALP TPP is:
56-44 Newspoll
56-44 Morgan
56-44 Essential
58-42 Reachtel
57-43 Neilsen
54-46 Galaxy
Last poll average result = 56.2
Massive support for NDIS at 78%. See even us righties have a heart.
[gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 10:59 pm | PERMALINK
So 6 months out and the trend is 55-45.
Joy.]
4 months
The NDIS and the NBN are seen as popular measures so while it would take a major turn around for the ALP to be returned at least the ALP do have those two positives to campaign on.
‘People have stopped listening’ is an understatement.
The current state for Labor actually mimics Howard Coalition in 2007. People just want a change a government and will be relatively disengaged until a fortnight out from the election.
davidwh@9
The conclusion is that only 22% of the population are righties :P.
Mod Lin
“The reality is this:
We owe $25k
We earn $33k
We spend $37k”
Simplistic, schoolyard nonsense. The true test is what is our debt as a % of of our net worth? Or in your terms …
We owe $25k
We earn $33k
We spend $37k
Our net assets are worth 250K
Yes as a nation we are overspending just a tad at the moment … but in the bigger scheme of things that is not an issue so long as in the better years we return the budget to surplus.
Sorry Mod Lib – my brain is still stuck in March.
Although you must forgive me – Abbott’s is still stuck in 1947.
Support evenly split as to who is best to manage the NDIS. Smart political move by Abbott to quickly support the levy increase. Obviously his team had their fingers on the pulse of the nation.
i always loved fighting the huge optimism for labor here but there’s no one to fight. there’s no satisfaction is seeing labor on ropes. my hunch is the populace switched off finally with last leadership spill – saw fought watching tv sets in gym – wont see that for some time. i think collective intelligence of alp would fail naplan – unless they know something we don’t. still think an election this month could have happened and would have been best. public is switched off because they have no choice.
completely unfair and unjustified gloryconsequence…..its at least the 1950s
DN I will answer to anything. Even comrade when bemused calls me that 🙂
[davidwh
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink
Massive support for NDIS at 78%.]
Yes, but the PM who brought it in will get no credit for it whatsoever. Such is the absurd state of Australian politics.
davidwh – yes, how clever of them.
Would never have implemented it on their own.
well
now we have mr palmer out shining abbott
too gutless to even follow the pm on to q and a
===================================
mr bowe I ask you every time
but you never answer in what electorate
are the polls \\polled
why don’t you ever ask
you would think with all your degrees and
stuff you would be able or want to know
I think its a fair question,
do you
davidwh;
Can I send him my bill for the political advice I gave that night (which he has followed to a tee and which has resulted in him slicing off some of the kudos, just as I said he would)?
noone owes anything to abbot – he has no pulse or life, knows nothing of nation – he is cloning clown – he is a parasite on the failings of labor – labor and greens created their enemy. there’d better be something startling soon or i’m off to ….
david, it’s quite possible people would have felt that way even before he supported the levy or if he had not supported the levy. Not that that necessarily contradicts your supposition ;).
my say
what?!?!?!
Don’t forget; Rudd polled 58/42 on the eve of the 2007 election campaign.
Rudd ended up winning 52.5 to 47.5 from memory.
What about how Howie commissioned Downer to count the numbers? Dolly came back and said they wanted Cossie 😆
Plenty of time yet. Things stabilizing, Morgan showing a drift back to labor.
Hang tough kids, the sweetest victory of all will be ours come September 14.
The only people that can answer where the polls are taken are the polling companies.
They should be polling across the board with a sample in ALP and a sample in Liberal seats and so forth.
The reality is all the polls are saying the same thing and even the Government has said that it is behind.
Mod, does your arm ever tire from patting your own back? 😛
[Yes as a nation we are overspending just a tad at the moment … but in the bigger scheme of things that is not an issue so long as in the better years we return the budget to surplus.]
We have overspent throughout this government with the biggest surplusses in our history, not once, but over repeated years, and now 5 years post GFC, we are still doing it.
The good news is that the credit card gets taken away on Sep 14th
Darn not that I like to give too much credit to Rudd however the NDIS had its roots in the great Canberra love-in that was Rudd’s passion. It was the main program to come out of that forum.
[The NDIS and the NBN are seen as popular measures so while it would take a major turn around for the ALP to be returned at least the ALP do have those two positives to campaign on.]
I would think this indicates that if they get no benefit now for having those good policies that there isn’t a policy that will help their cause short of helicopters and cash..so what on earth can they do to get credit from the electorate.
I think the answer is in who do you trust to deliver NDIS. The public are not deciding on policies they are in the anybody but Gillard zone. They automatically mark down labor on everything because of their prejudice against gillard. This has to be quite clear now.
And that seems to be a very long held intent and ingrained. If people are marking the party because of who your leader us then you have little chance. AND this is with Abbott as LOTO, probably the best situation Labor could have.
Labor doomers and gloomers what terrible disaster do you think awaits us with an Abbott government?
You might get a tax cut you should be happy
NDIS = good win for Abbott.
How does PM Gillard do it?
T.P.
Somehow I doubt that would help even if they were in a better position.
davidwh @16
Unfortunately GIllard tried to use the NDIS as a political football when in reality it was always going to be partisan and she didn’t need to shine the light on Abbott. But she did and worse, tried to somehow link the refusal to accept the medicare levy increase with a rejection of the NDIS. And then tried to weasel her way out of the mess by talking about a change of mind by Abbott when SHE is the only one that changed her mind on the MC levy. So another golden opportunity nicely hand balled to the coalition. Perhaps she needs to get a local media advisor for a change ….
TP
I suspect you may be right for the people that support the PM on those measures are most likely already in the the ALP although had Tone opposed the NDIS he may have lost some support maybe a few points
There seems to be a consensus from most on PB that the polls will tighten as the election approaches.
The question is by how much? Despite the supreme confidence of the Tory pundits on PB they might want to reflect on the old adage about counting chickens …
I reckon Bludgertrack could hit the triple digits on Wednesday
What say you William?
Geoffrey
They could have buried Abbott straight away.
Had the Greens decided not to play politics Abbott would have been destroyed with the CPRS.
It could have been Labor + 50% Coalition + Greens v Abbott.
The Greens wanted a carbon tax – now they get this
PM
rummel@35
You don’t actually have any proof of that. You would need
a) an experiment run in an alternate universe where abbott didn’t support it
b) a poll taken before the levy was brought up with the same question as the one after
[davidwh
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink
Darn not that I like to give too much credit to Rudd however the NDIS had its roots in the great Canberra love-in that was Rudd’s passion. It was the main program to come out of that forum.]
David
You mean the forum that the media and the Liberals panned mercilessly as a WOFTAM?
There is one thing keeping Abbott afloat and one thing only…without a shred of doubt..it is the MSM. After watching the PM. on Q&A tonight there is no way anyone can say she cannot get her message across to an audience…it’s just that the OM. is not reporting it fairly.
Cull the OM. it is a sick beast…
And by partisan I mean non-partisan 🙂
Centre:
Do you not like the Greens?
Rossmore
Depends on the budget, in recent years there has been a lack of budget bonce but it may put a floor under the ALP vote or send it downhill.
I think a 53-47 election result is possible but as recent state elections have showed voters today are more willing than ever to deliver massive landslides
Sadly ML BludgerTrack is unlikely to be better than a few weeks back when it got to 99.
morpheus, if it was already non-partisan and it remained non-partisan, what makes you think those events changed anything?
Mod Lib
“We have overspent throughout this government with the biggest surplusses in our history, not once, but over repeated years, and now 5 years post GFC, we are still doing it.
The good news is that the credit card gets taken away on Sep 14th”
I presume you mean deficits – in which case you would be wrong. The current deficit is at best marginal both in real terms and historically, certainly when compared with our international peers … but I know you hate such comparisons as it doesnt fit the Tory story board …