GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.
Also out today:
• Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).
• ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).
• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.
I did a bit of phone-contact for a Federal ALP MP tonight, I didn’t call many people as I am just learning the program but it was enjoyable.
It is good to get into the battle. If we are going to shift these polls, I suggest Laborites get their bums in chairs or shoe=leather on the footpaths. Plus it is fun.
“Unfortunately GIllard tried to use the NDIS as a political football when in reality it was always going to be partisan and she didn’t need to shine the light on Abbott. But she did and worse, tried to somehow link the refusal to accept the medicare levy increase with a rejection of the NDIS. And then tried to weasel her way out of the mess by talking about a change of mind by Abbott when SHE is the only one that changed her mind on the MC levy. So another golden opportunity nicely hand balled to the coalition. Perhaps she needs to get a local media advisor for a change ….”
Almost, but not quite, psychotic delusion!
Well, I understand William engages in some witchcraft to get to his final numbers, but the unadjusted average is now 56.2% whereas his Bludgertrack on the pre-today polls was 55.0% so I imagine there is a solid move to the Coalition coming on the Wed update.
Given it is 96 seats right now, I reckon triple figures is on the cards for the first time!
Mod Lib
I like landing the little white ball on them to putt for an eagle – even a birdie will do 😛
Debt is good if it is an investment that provides growth.
To have allowed 200,000 Australians to be sitting on the dole would have been bad spending regardless of how mild a recession it would have been
Yes Darn that one. A national disability was the one positive outcome from all that hype and the fact it is an excellent outcome probably made it a worthwhile exercise.
Joe Carli
Yes.
The twist to get that logic to work would keep a chiropractor in work for years.
DisplayName @49
I didn’t say it did change anything and this is obvious in the polls if you believe that sort of stuff. However, in the long run I don’t think it did Gillard’s reputation much good and unfortunately cemented the perceived impression that she just does and uses anything for her own good. Which we know isn’t true on the NDIS but her egging Abbott on the MC levy wasn’t a good look.
Kevin Bonham has already adjusted his estimate (albeit without Reachtel’s 58-42) and comes to 55.6…..but his estimate is usually the most favourable to the ALP of Mark-the-ballot, bludgertrack and him (the three people who do an aggregate).
beemer
But neocons believe 200,000 unemployed sitting on preferano dole is a good compliant back-up workforce. Heaven for them.
Three months out from 2007 how close or far from the result were the polls?
Have you landed on the green for an eagle put?
That is something I have never done……alas……(insert sad smile here as I don’t know how to do it)
[davidwh
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
Yes Darn that one. A national disability was the one positive outcome from all that hype and the fact it is an excellent outcome probably made it a worthwhile exercise.]
David
Do you recall who it was that came up with the idea?
Puffy
Good see you had some fun, what was the feedback like and how many rung up?
ML I don’t think William uses simple averaging and I’m not sure when the impact of that last Nielsen washes out of his modeling however that Nielsen was favourable to the Coalition.
[Tory pundits on PB they might want to reflect on the old adage about counting chickens]
What! do you mean these chickens?
The Headless Chooks in ‘The Gillard Experiment’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3HtNCv3xvM
“preferably no dole”
[I think a 53-47 election result is possible but as recent state elections have showed voters today are more willing than ever to deliver massive landslides]
The public seem to be quite willing to punish governments they don’t like. And the wild card in the coming election is the Gillard campaign.
Abbott doesn’t have to do much, Gillard has to try and turn things around…and in trying to do so could just as easily make it much worse, given her last campaign, and political ineptitude.
Mod Lib
🙁
Swift double dot Swift 9
joe carli @52
Yep, everyone is deluded but the “true believers” .. Keep on believing that because reality is obviously over-rated. Who needs reality when you can have ALP spin….
Its up to 76k hits now!
what is a swift?
Like I was saying at the end of the last thread.
The last poll in 2012 was 53/47.
Julia announces the election date – Old Media propaganda it to “the longest campaign in history” so the voters think oohhhh shit no!
So what happens, polls go to 56/44.
The problem is that since Crean and Fitzgibbon went into massacre outrage and destroyed winning the election 😎
shift key
Trust me to make a typo
Darn #63 no I don’t but it was a panel wasn’t it?
[davidwh
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 11:24 pm | PERMALINK
ML I don’t think William uses simple averaging ]
He doesn’t, and when I called it “witchcraft” I was just being flippant, what he does is perfectly reasonable (adjusting for more recent polls and house effects etc etc).
But when there are 4 polls out in one day all of which are 56 or better for the Coalition, you would think that an aggregate that weights recent polls heavily will come in above 56.
Only two calls, at the end after I did some training. Sentiment not bad. I am pretty good at it I think, if I say so myself. I did not get through many because I spent time talking to people, but I was assured that taking quality time was as useful as making lots of contacts. I was surprised how much I knew about stuff. Must be the PB &(The PUB) effect.
Obviously, trolls have their uses. 😆
>>(
🙁
Ah…..ta
Have done it on a par 4 and par 5 😛
How many can I get in a row?
DAMN YOU CENTRE!!!!!
Bye
News tonight on CNBC is that Obama has decided to allow the US to export natural gas. This will substantially change the export market for Australian LNG, and, conceivably, may mean any project not already under construction will be shelved.
We really, really need to think about the post boom economy.
I love the smell of hubris in the evening, and watching chickens being counted before the eggs have even been laid.
Centre,
Done what on par 4 and par 5, and where you arrested?
morpheus@7
I’m actually not certain they will do so. They may, past history suggests that they will, but I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that it will stay more or less like this all the way.
Or even perhaps get worse.
Puffy
Smack middle of Lidcombe Oval – the old Western Suburbs home ground.
I was dating a chick who was at a swimming meet. The pools are adjacent to the ground 😈 😈
Puffy
sounds good, i think its better to spend time than rush things and making it look a little two sales like.
Kevin, that was a verbose way of saying nothing much :D.
DN I think I have felt a degree of resignation creep into Kevin in recent months or perhaps it’s just my resignation I am feeling. Turnbull would have made a much better PM than Abbott will. Sigh …
[Abbott doesn’t have to do much, Gillard has to try and turn things around…and in trying to do so could just as easily make it much worse, given her last campaign, and political ineptitude.]
TP
I have been thinking about how postal Gillard could go. A dose of Crean courage from the PM could make the very sinking interesting.
Could you now call believing in a Labor win this year an article of faith as all the major evidence points against it?
KB
I was reading recently on Mumble that apart from 1993 which was an aberration the polls generally firm up in favour of the coalition as we get closer to the election and that has been over a 63 year time scale.
The Hewson leadership was a massive failure going to the election with a great new tax and even the majority of Liberal voting friends were very happy to lose that lectionaries to Keating who was also still popular with the Finance/ Legal classes. Our current PM is not popular with that professional class. Most of the voters I know switch off the TV whenever she comes on and you cannot blame the MSM for that.
Pity ML has turned in as Anthony Green is calling 100 seats for the Coalition on Auspoll.
[davidwh
Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 11:56 pm | PERMALINK
Pity ML has turned in as Anthony Green is calling 100 seats for the Coalition on Auspoll.]
hmm…. Modlib is on the money so far.
Mod Lib@59
For a while mine was consistently tracking above MTBs but it’s changed since the demise of MF2F. Since the last change I made to mine about a month ago, it should track about 0.3 points below MTB’s on average. Both these things are because his is zero sum and mine isn’t.
The reasons it isn’t 56 or above at the moment are:
1. It doesn’t include ReachTEL. There have only been two federal ReachTEL’s and they’ve both been Coalition-friendly. I don’t believe based on RT’s performance in other polling that they should have a Coalition house effect in federal polling but I want to see a third before I go making assumptions.
2. It still has the 55 from the previous Newspoll, the 54 from the previous Galaxy and the 57 from the previous Nielsen in the tank, albeit downweighted.
3. It doesn’t assume zero sum. It assumes that the polls Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential and Morgan, when taken together, have a very slight average lean to the Coalition.
[Well, I understand William engages in some witchcraft to get to his final numbers, but the unadjusted average is now 56.2% whereas his Bludgertrack on the pre-today polls was 55.0% so I imagine there is a solid move to the Coalition coming on the Wed update.
Given it is 96 seats right now, I reckon triple figures is on the cards for the first time!]
No, actually – both sides are down on the primary vote and the Coalition up only 0.2% on 2PP. I await further data before doing a seat projection, but it won’t be 100 seats.
DisplayName@91
That was a pointless way of saying less.