GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.
Also out today:
• Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).
• ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).
• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.
Centre,
Aren’t you lucky nobody turned the lights on (assuming there were any.)
Kevin Bonham@100
Sure, but yours was funnier :P.
Wait, that’s an improvement, nevermind :D.
Mike Patton@95
Quite possibly one of my comments actually! I discovered this stuff around August last year and have been posting about it a lot since. Going right back to the late 40s, Labor and the Coalition have the same average worst polling position for a term in office (specifically, about 7 points behind on 2PP) and yet the Coalition’s won 16 elections to Labor’s 9. Either this is a fluke or there is a Labor Fail Factor at play. If it’s real, it’s worth something like a dozen seats per election.
Vic hospitals still faking their waiting lists.
I love the “not ready for care” category. In my experience, about 10% should be in that category but lots of Vic hospitals have it at 25% or more so the patients don’t appear on the waiting list.
Even better, the Lib Vics pointed this out in opposition and promised to get rid of the category, but it seems to have flourished under the Libs.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/surgery-loophole-untreated-20130506-2j3j4.html
Briefly @85
Getting China and India to burn more gas would be a good strategy there.
Imagine Beijing with clear skys!
It’s clear the Australian people are going to get the government they richly deserve. They just need to bend over and grasp something hard while Tone has his way with them. I won’t be one of those people contributing to this state of affairs.
So, we’re still putting the NDIS down as a Hillard victory despite subzero poll bounce?
By that logic the Budget should be a clear winner for her and Swanny.
CC, not everything needs to be judged in the political domain.
davidwh@92
It just all looks totally over; it would take a remarkable effort from the Coalition to lose it from here. Labor just seems to be going through the motions.
I thought Labor had very real chances up until late Jan and since then my view has gone from “rather unlikely” to “very unlikely” to “forget it”.
As for resignation, that sort of implies I’m on a side. Which I sort-of am in the sense of being deeply opposed to Abbott, but the way things are going I’ll be trying to find ways of expressing it at the ballot box in both houses that don’t involve supporting the ALP.
Happy to mention the specific issue that makes that the case if anyone really wants to know. It’s one of those some people get sick of seeing debated on here. 😉
They’re probably all asleep now KB. Well, they’ll see it in the morning, so probably better to spare their sensitivies!
This place does go to sleep a bit after midnight sometimes. Not as bad as Twitter though which seems to have a ridiculously early bedtime!
Should be getting back to more federal stuff on my site and on here and Twitter over coming weeks now the Tas LegCo elections are over. (I’ve posted a few late comments on the washup there to what was the live cover thread at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/legco-live-comments-thread-tasmanian.html including one where I catch the Australian Christian Lobby contradicting itself in an especially blatant way (even for it)).
Possible upcoming stuff:
– new analysis of the interplay between Abbott’s ratings and 2PP since the Gillard Recovery ended.
– I might have a look at all the Newspoll uncommitted/refused stuff a few people keep going on about and see what the facts about the patterns there are.
If it is, as I suspect, a straw people are clutching at then I’m sure they can find another one! But there may be something in it that is useful.
BREAKING NEWS…..
TONY ABBOTT HAS AGREED TO APPEAR ON NEXT WEEKS Q&A USING THE SAME PLATFORM AS THE PRIME MINISTERS APPEARANCE LAST NIGHT
One on one with students.
Piss N Moan Tone has agreed to appear and will front up to a Q&A audience of students.
See attached promo
Jeffemu
Stop taking the mickey.
hahaha
Jeffemu,
The previous post was before I opened the link. We do so know Tone. Pity the rest of voterland is as blind as a pissed parrot.
but I’m still up
In case any one wonders , after a while,,and u may not,
I have decided not to write anything or leave links on pollbluder any more, I feel my time and effort is better spent on places where there is no bickering and back biting and no polls . I still believe that australians will not be silly enough to elect a party that have no policies and no plans for our future and a would be pm who prefers bike riding to governing.
But should the worst happen, I have no crystal ball, but from the little I know about what they will do.
I see many sad people, with less income, and no work and sacking,
Will we go backwards I would think so, in the communications area, the broadband that labor are offering and is now being installed, I have read on many tech blogs is far surperior.
I have also read that with cutting wages and jobs inflation will rise and with it interest rates.
I have read these things , in other areas over the cyber space.
So I would suppose it could happen.
So that would equal similar to the 80 s in the 80/83 time we saw lots of bankruptcy and very high
interest rates of up to 17, percent.
So could this happen again ,,, we dont know, but what we do know now is that aust. Is in very good shape.
Will do my bit elsewhere, not wanting to spend time with people who try got-cha , from every post.
And one up man ship.
To the people ive met over the years from the side of light, enjoyed your company.. So I will spend my time elsewhere
and do lot of praying that Australia remains in the good hands of a gov. the labor gov. that cares for people and the prosperity of all people.
i can tell you newspoll were polling last week , because i was polled last monday
so again it shows what the media agenda is
Reason why these opinion polls are just rubbish
Why wont the media authority investigate newsltd for misleading people when the polls were taken
And people claim the polls are reality
They are much reality as Abbott being prime minister in 2011
Reachtel was sprung in another dodgy poll
there poling was also before the ndis announcement
their poll was done before the ndis announcement
i guess these imaginary polls all the coalition supporters have
MB
OK you have made your point.
Can we please not repeat it more than twice a day
lol daretotread
i agree, im finish now
no more poll ranting
What it does show , how low the pro coalition media will go
Morning all. Obviously these polls are not great reading for someone of non-fascist political views. I thought Gillard might have gotten a slight bounce out of the NDIS, but Abbott supporting it seems to have diffused it as a winning issue.
Morning All
Polls, polls and more polls – none of them good at present but such is life.
Interesting to see Alex Hawke and others questioning Abbott’s PPL scheme now joined by others in doing so. Even more interesting was that in one interview he said Abbott had called him but he still bagged the policy. This will become a test of his leadership, I expect to see him win out but it’s good to see some pressure go on.
Speaking of the scheme itself, it’s paid for by the government – it’s welfare, anyone claiming otherwise is deluded. It’s expensive, overly generous, welfare.
Ziggy’s report into the Bombers, boring and pointless. Hopefully ASADA get cracking and make some recommendations relatively quickly.
Singo vs Gai, Tom – nothing to see here
Headlines today around millionaires not paying tax hints at some worthwhile budget changes coming up, fingers crossed 🙂
Good morning Dawn Patrolllers.
Yesterday’s polls prove again that the Australian public are politically disengaged and/or easily led.
Does this give you the shits or what? And i wonder which party they would vote for.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/the-70-mega-rich-who-dont-pay-tax-20130506-2j3ng.html
Getting down and dirty as the colorful characters eat their own.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/gai-cracks-the-whip-20130506-2j3nc.html
The missing link to this story is the cost of manufacture which is way, way less than the wholesale prices.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/grocery-chains-put-heat-on-suppliers-20130506-2j3hs.html
The insidious nature of this is hardly surprising.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/police-colluded-with-priests-says-detective-20130506-2j3me.html
You can bet your sweet bippy that the Libs would not agree to this proposition.
http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/fraud-spotters-fees-could-save-billions-20130506-2j3xk.html
Go for it!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-bill-aims-to-severely-limit-gambling-ads-20130506-2j3nd.html
I’m with Bushfire Bill on this. It’s time to really get the gloves off.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/advertising-expert-labels-liberal-party-chicken-campaign-immature-20130506-2j32r.html
Section 2 . . .
Bruce Petty with “Compassion to the Node”.
Alan Moir uses Popeye again to hammer Abbott!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Cathy Wilcox on James Packer’s architectural taste.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David Pope with a shocker – Ziggy in Bomberland!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg sums up the church child abuse inquiries.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe with some ugly imagery on Abbott’s PPL problems.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Latest weekly aggregation from Mark the Ballot: http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/weekly-aggregation-back-where-we-were.html
It’s back to 44-56, which is where we were a month ago.
MB
The polls show exactly what they say they doe
If there was an election TODAY and people had to vote then it looks as if 56% of them will vote coalition.
Now there are 18 weeks to go including a budget and an election campaign, which may change things. However:
Abbott has not exploded in the last three years (except for the Riley head nodding affair) so we cannot expect him to explode in the next 18 weeks. It MIGHT happen but statistics are against us
The budget will be tight so no nice promises to win a percentage or two
Gillard last election did not campaign well. Now this hopefully CAN change but she would need to be a miracle worker to turn around a 5-6% lead.
Sudden emergency events which can change mood eg 9/11 or Tampa. This is tricky as I am just not sure how it would play out electorally. If it is a foreign affairs matter and Gillard let Carr do all the PR then it might be a big positive factor. If it is an economic matter eg GFC then Swan will not be able to win them over. If it is an immigration matter then Abbott would gain. If it was a natural disaster eg flood earthquake, then possibly Gillard could gain a point or two.
Thanks for the links as always BK. The story of the stingy seventy is interesting in several respects. The deductions they use (negative gearing etc) are used by many, not all of whom are on high incomes. I have said many times here those rorts need to be removed or capped, but Labor has not done so any more than the Libs did.
daretotread
Posted Tuesday, May 7, 2013 at 7:16 am | PERMALINK
Abbott has not exploded in the last three years (except for the Riley head nodding affair) so we cannot expect him to explode in the next 18 weeks. It MIGHT happen but statistics are against us
——————
This is a joke right
Abbott explodes every time he gets interview
the media is protecting him
no much how denial the coalition and non Gillard supporters are in
direct action, ppl , goneski , ndis
in the last 2 weeks Abbott exploded
Reality is and the media knows it
The more Abbott is exposed in the public spotlight
the coalition loses by default
Question is can newsltd stop Abbott doing an Hewson in the election campaign in August
MB
Whether the media protects Abbott or not is irrelevant. If he has managed the media successfully for three years why is he going to fail in the last 18 weeks?
The public will really focus on Abbott in the last 4 weeks of the election campaign. Now in 2010 Labor “strategists” assumed he would self destruct, which is why they took the risk on the leadership spill and ran such a lousy campaign. Seems to me that the wishful thinking PBers still have the same mind set.
My comment is that if Peta Credlin and co could keep him apparently sane for three years we can expect them to keep it up for the next 18 weeks.
Post election mind you, when they take the straight jacket off it might be different
[Question is can newsltd stop Abbott doing an Hewson in the election campaign in August]
Abbott has been a massive target for media attacks for years but over the last few months the MSM have decided to back off and not report his weaknesses. ‘Doing a Hewson’ is quite on the cards but who will report it? That is the problem.
And from the Land of the Free –
And not before time!
http://americablog.com/2013/05/vast-majority-of-national-advertisers-refuse-to-air-ads-during-limbaughs-show.html
Not only in Australia.
http://americablog.com/2013/05/catholic-archbishop-defends-letting-confessed-pedophile-priest-near-more-kids.html
http://americablog.com/2013/05/catholic-anthony-musaala-suspended.html
Guns! What a dump!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/06/video-boy-16-fired-gun-then-killed-by-cops-he-was-bipolar-depressed-so-why-did-he-have-access-to-a-weapon/
This says so much about the NRA and its apologists!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/05/company-selling-bleeding-gun-targets-at-nra-convention-hawks-violence-against-women-ex-girlfriendwife-targets/
Some cartoons on the drumbeat to Syria. Depressing really.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/06/cartoons-of-the-day-drumbeat-to-syria/
What the . . . .
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/marching-dc-loaded-rifles-what-could-possib
The perils of unregulated corporate freedom.
http://occupyamerica.crooksandliars.com/diane-sweet/texas-plant-only-insured-1m
This week’s Gun Fail segment.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/05/04/1205265/-GunFAIL-XVI
You’ve gotta be joking!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/06/jeffrey-krusinski-arrested_n_3225155.html
And one to make the blood boil!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/06/ireland-abortion-legislation-catholic-excommunication_n_3224433.html
Good Morning
Disunity is death. Expect to see the polls change due to LNP infighting.
Abbott’s PPL scheme. Infighting within the party. Attacks from outside supporting that infight from the IPA.
Then there is the fight to come between Palmer and Abbott.
The polls will change because they must or they will have no credibility at all.
Labor needs to sell the things Labor does
NDIS, Goneski, the NBN (and historically Medicare and Superannuation) – Liberals would never do any of these things, they aren’t in their DNA. All these things are popular they just need to sold better.
Labor’s time to get their messages right is quickly running out – I hope they get it sorted.
In the meantime – Abbott, Hockey et al are sending mixed messages about what they stand for and have some massive sells to still reveal and make – i.e. will they reduce the tax free threshold and decrease pensions when the remove the carbon tax??? and if not, how will they pay for it???
There’s time though, plenty of time
p.s. great to see Turnbull asked about upload speeds in yesterday’s debate with Conroy – Fraudband is a massive downer for the Liberals
With business saying the Abbott PPL will cost them more than the current carbon price. Woolies stating it will cost them $40 million and banks stating interest rates will rise 0.5%
why aren’t the Labor media people screaming this from the rooftops???
@TheKouk: My Business Spectator column this morning: Austerity is Dead! Long live austerity! http://t.co/ST0QbnJ73R
Remember when it used to rain more under Labor?
Morning all.
Yep, agree with BK: disengagement and disinterest will continue to see the polls just drift along.
Something big needs to happen to shake people out of their lethargy. Heaven only knows what that might be though.
“@justinbarbour: Great news. RT @joeobrien24: Wong: We won’t be proceeding with the additional boost to the family tax benefit.”
“@justinbarbour: The FTB, though critical to many families, is at the heart of the middle class welfare problem. #ausvotes”
Boerwar:
As it happens there is a very strong system sitting off the SW coast which is forecast to deliver some good falls to coastal areas this week. 🙂
Good to hear Labor is dumping the increase to FTB A linked to the Mining tax, the revenue isn’t there – the increase shouldn’t be there either. Sensible