GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.
Also out today:
• Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).
• ReachTEL has conducted a national poll for the Seven Network with a big sample of 2856, which has the Coalition lead up from 57-43 in the April 12 poll to 58-42. The primary votes are 29.3% for Labor (down 2.0% on the April 12 result), 48.8% for the Coalition (down 1.3%) and 10.2% for the Greens. Questions on the NDIS find 52.6% supporting a Medicare levy raise to fund it against 33.6% opposed, but 41.2% saying the announcement has made them less likely to vote Labor against 26.3% more likely, which you may well find hard to square. Asked which of the two leaders respondents “trust most to deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme successfully”, 57.3% opted for Tony Abbott and 42.7% for Julia Gillard (obviously after removing the undecided).
• The latest weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has moved in Labor’s favour, which is probably a correction after a Coalition blowout last time. Labor is up 1.5% on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition down two to 46% and the Greens down 2.5% to 8.5%. The Coalition lead is 56-44 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, down from 58-46 and 56.5-43.5 respectively.
Question about the headless chooks ad. Apparently it has over 400k views. I have been subjected to it more than a dozen times recently not through choice, but because it shows up as an ad before watching other YouTube videos.
Would this count as a ‘view’?
JV – you are sounding like an Abbott supporter – when was the change made?
Bob Carr is a terrible foreign minister.. he seems preoccupied kissing up to foreign governments while covering up the facts from the Australian public.
Remember the bungling position on Libya wanting a hands off approach while Sir Kevin was calling for military action… then weeks later Carr backflips and supports military action.
Then we got the Prisoner X case… Carr hasbeen playing the whole. First he denied knowing anything. Then he admits his department knowing but not having any info.
It took the ABC to get the truth out though, Carr couldn’t tell us anything. What a disgrace.
[Would this count as a ‘view’?]
Yep! Libs would be paying gold coins for it though.
OK William, you win, I cant think of any other ways to push the number over 100.
I don’t think things are going to keep trending up for the Coalition, so perhaps 100 is the ceiling beyond which we cannot pass……
[rummel
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:05 pm | PERMALINK
Would this count as a ‘view’?
Yep! Libs would be paying gold coins for it though.]
Only if linked to Youtube though.
[Bob Carr is a terrible foreign minister.. he seems preoccupied kissing up to foreign governments while covering up the facts from the Australian public.]
He may not be great like Smith and Rudd, but it could be worse he could be like Downer or Bishop …
rummel
“Yep! Libs would be paying gold coins for it though.”
Right so how many of those 400,000ish views are from people who clicked ‘skip’ five seconds into it like me?
‘Viral’ my ass.
abasolutetwaddle:
I have the opposite question: why did the counter not go up when I viewed it?
Sean,
John Howard and Iraq.
How quickly you forget.
Mod Lib
Go exercise and watch what you eat you clown.
More cost to the taxpayer cause a bloke won’t diet and exercise.
Sheezus what next?
ML Anthony Green has called 100 seats and that will have to do. William is just tougher than Anthony.
Wakefield
Criticism of Labor in its last weeks isn’t necessarily all from the right. Mine certainly isn’t.
[davidwh
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:08 pm | PERMALINK
ML Anthony Green has called 100 seats and that will have to do. William is just tougher than Anthony.]
do U have a link?
[Right so how many of those 400,000ish views are from people who clicked ‘skip’ five seconds into it like me?
‘Viral’ my ass.]
in your case i think the libs reached there target audience. There chasing you down around the web to playing with your head.
[Centre
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:08 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Go exercise and watch what you eat you clown.]
I have tried but it doesn’t work…I think it is these huge shoes and that every time I try to drink some water it turns to confetti…:)
Try Anthony Green’s election calculator 2013 federal election on the ABC news site.
ML,
I think you might be on LSD.
Picture yourself on a boat on a river
With plastecine trees
And Marmalade skies……..
[I have the opposite question: why did the counter not go up when I viewed it?]
Youtube video views are counted but not applied instantly especially on viral videos. I believe someone… or possibly software checks the views for legitimacy before applying updated views.
It’s often why you will see a video locked with 306 views that has gone viral with thousands of comments added in minutes.
I have unbounded respect for Elizabeth Smart.
http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20698059,00.html?utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer346f9
http://www.womensagenda.com.au/talking-about/opinions/eva-cox-let-s-acknowledge-that-abbott-s-paid-parental-leave-policy-is-better/201305082109
http://www.mamamia.com.au/news/in-defence-of-tony-abbott/
Eva Cox and Mia Freedman supporting the Abbott PPL policy.
Good on you!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2013/calculator/?mode=overall&overall=-6.1&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringmps=false&lyne=nat&neng=nat&melb=alp
OMG that’s the first time I have done that on my iPhone 🙂
Mod Lib
Do you have any health issues that prevents you from losing weight or is it in your head 😆
[Eva Cox and Mia Freedman supporting the Abbott PPL policy.
Good on you!]
Go to the crikey article and see the spray the poor lady receives in comments.
[Eva Cox and Mia Freedman supporting the Abbott PPL policy.]
Clearly women of calibre. They’ll have earned Tony’s pat on the bum.
Thanks davidwh.
That it not so much an aggregate as a direct plugging in of the swing from the latest poll…..which is slightly different!
I think only Bludgertrack and Marktheballot do a predicted seat analysis based on aggregating the recent polls (Kevin does an aggregate Coalition TPP but not seat count).
The good news is that the latest Newspoll gives the Coalition 102 seats with Katter! 🙂
[Centre
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:23 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Do you have any health issues that prevents you from losing weight or is it in your head ]
Its my scales. They have been malfunctioning for the last decade or so….I have been meaning to get them fixed….
[Go to the crikey article and see the spray the poor lady receives in comments.]
Oh dear…..some of the left are such sexists aren’t they?
Rummel
“in your case i think the libs reached there target audience. There chasing you down around the web to playing with your head.”
Are you kidding? I love political ads and often watch Liberal Party efforts on YouTube just because I’m bored.
The chook one is just bad though. The voice clips could have been used to much greater effect, and I’m sure they will be in the future. It really looked like what some socially conservative stiff in a business suit thinks kids are impressed by and just laid quotes over the top. And explosions.
Yawn.
But I was unaware that someone forced to watch it (as opposed to clicking through to it by choice as you would through news links, FB and Twitter) counts as a view.
So proclaiming it ‘viral’ is more than a little disingenuous if that’s right. Because if that is the case then every ad on YouTube is viral.
Sean Tisme – Bob Carr is lousy Foreign Min coz he “kisses up” to other governments.
Billy McMhon – “All the way with LBJ” kissing up to the USA over the Vietnam War
JUohn Howard – again Liberals taking Aust into a war to Kiss up to the USA and this time based on a lie….
ML just trying to give you your 100 seats and AG is a considered expert in the field 😉
[ I love political ads and often watch Liberal Party efforts on YouTube just because I’m bored.]
Where are Labors?
Compare the process here and tell me which is viral.
I go to YouTube to watch that guy in Cleveland who rescued the abducted girl get interviewed. I find the video, click through to it but before the video starts I have to watch five seconds of the headless chook ad before I can skip it.
One ‘view’ for the Libs.
I then flick on the TV and hear a pundit talk about Julia Gillard’s speech. I search for it on YouTube and click through to it, maybe watching the entire thing which goes for what, 10-15 minutes?
One ‘view’ for Gillard.
If each have a million views which is more viral?
….of course Poliquant used to do an aggregate and seat prediction too, but, alas, poliquant blogs no more….
One click one vote, eh?
absolutetwaddle
Do we really need to argue “viral” over the chicken ad?
I remember a scene where Keating visited a school during the 1996 election and was mobbed…..then the voters got their turn!
:devil:
rummel
No idea. I doubt the ALP have the mountains of gold the Liberals do to interrupt my YouTube experience.
Still, I’ll always remember the massive black and white billboard the ALP put up along Dandenong Rd (near Oakleigh, forget the name of the other major road) in Victoria showing JWH’s bushy visage next to the words “Australians have never been better off”. For the 2007 campaign.
Simple, effective, serious, thought-provoking. Everything the chook ad isn’t.
Combet doesn’t look happy!
HEY!!!!!
Lateline just used my line about Gillard:
The gift that keeps on giving!
rummel
“Do we really need to argue “viral” over the chicken ad?”
At least one person here has said it is viral, so yes.
[showing JWH’s bushy visage next to the words “Australians have never been better off”. For the 2007 campaign.
Simple, effective, serious, thought-provoking. Everything the chook ad isn’t.]
How right he was!. Libs should dust off that billboard and put it back up this election.
ML
Today was a good day for Labor.
The signing of Disability Care with the Queensland Premier Mr Newman singing PMJG’s praises.
The PPL gettign pulled about by economists as being underfunded.
Those issues will stick with voters.
Don’t worry Abbott will become the gift that keeps on giving after the election.
[absolutetwaddle
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
“Do we really need to argue “viral” over the chicken ad?”
At least one person here has said it is viral, so yes.]
Well im happy to let headless chooks run.
rummel, you’re seriously asking if we’re going to argue about ? Of course we will, that’s what we do :P.
Oops, messed that up. Anyway, we’ll argue about anything, don’t ask silly questions, rummel.
[DisplayName
Posted Wednesday, May 8, 2013 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK
rummel, you’re seriously asking if we’re going to argue about ? Of course we will, that’s what we do .]
Sorry, 🙂
DisplayName:
I, for one, do not argue…..I educate (for free to boot)!