GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.
UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).
Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.
UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.
confessions:
Do you realise how childish that makes you look?
O’Mouth was sidelined tonight. Pity; she is a wonderful advertisement for Labor pollies.
[WeWantPaul
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
Ummm. Labor facing it’s biggest weakness, they followed the Liberals down the sewer.
We just don’t like being alone, with the libs and greens down there we had to join in. And we may all live in the gutter but labor looks to the light on the hill.]
Well judging by the response to George Megalogenis it might be time to do a bit more than look.
NDIS paying for sex workers?
Mod Lib:
You rate comments according to a stratum aligned with a children’s fictional novel from the 1930s. You are in no position to declare others as being childish.
Zoomster I’m glad you think oblivion for Labor is a good poll result because this is as good as it gets. There will be no narrowing of significance. Come September Abbott will be wearing the crown and an awful lot of Labor members will be looking for jobs.
Crean- selfish self interest nothing more nothing less, could well be responsible for destroying alp
This Labor term in office reminds me of the sad aftermath of the French Revolution. With early problems in the new Republic, it was easiest to blame every problem on conspiracies and secret societies.
And so the “Reign of Terror” was unleashed and tens of thousands were brutally killed with little or no judicial process, finally including of course some of the original leaders of the Revolution such as Robespierre, damned as “counter-revolutionaries”. “Order” was restored by Napoleon, who later proclaimed himself emperor, but eventually the Monarchy was restored.
And I imagine they probably banned the use of the word “Robespierre” after killing him.
How have the most controversial ALP policies changed since, for want of an argument, June 2010?
1. Boats – defacto Pacific solution in place that is not working. The only thing that will stop this is declaring any person who arrives illegally will never get a visa while on Australian territory.
2. Mining tax – forgive me if i’m wrong but the initial model effectively nationalised the industry by pledging government support in a down turn – at this stage the government would be pouring funds into BHP etc.
3. Carbon tax – would not be in place but would be reconsidered some time this year.
Two wins and a tie for mine.
[confessions
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib:
You rate comments according to a stratum aligned with a children’s fictional novel from the 1930s. You are in no position to declare others as being childish.]
That is a bit of fun.
You are saying that you think you are very smart because you refuse to respond to certain posters as you do not agree with what they say: like a child taking their bat and ball and heading off home because they don’t get what they want.
“I’m not a philosophical expert” says Kelly O.
Quite.
Oakeshott Country
[
Bemused, I would never have described your opinion as humble.
]
Perhaps heavy and humble ? ……Nah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZWmpddSUWo
Sex for dementia sufferers, why am I watching #qanda anymore?
Diogenes@3262
Yes, but entirely predictable and in keeping with their mindset.
Next week on QandA is on religion,etc.
Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd RRudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Ruddudd Rudd Rudd Rudd Rudd
“@ABCnewsIntern: George Megalogenis: “If you think they shouldn’t have sex… that’s a pretty difficult argument to mount.” (applause.) #qanda”
[centaur009
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
Crean- selfish self interest nothing more nothing less, could well be responsible for destroying alp]
Why because the pretender never had the numbers and he showed him up for what he was?
[And so the “Reign of Terror” was unleashed and tens of thousands were brutally killed with little or no judicial process]
Don’t give us ideas.
GP:
If he had that many votes in Caucus he would have been PM today!
I think some regular posters are experiencing that whistling in the wind kinda feeling. Sad really.
Mod Lib:
One thing I’ve never claimed is to be very smart.
Under the current adversarial system most settlements for young men with head injuries include an allowance for the use of sex workers. Has someone said this will be a revolutionary part of NDIS or why is there such strange comments?
GP has proved he is pretty juvanile.
BK:
Won’t be watching the religious episode that’s for sure.
Rummell has tounge-in-cheek while he lies like a pig-in-shit!..”Kevin Rudd was a great PM.”
“@BBCSteveR: Medvedev on Cyprus: “In my view, the stealing of what has already been stolen continues””
Russia redoing loan to Cyprus on earlier tweet.
I haven’t taken “the pledge” but I have had a longstanding policy of not contributing to leadershit discussions.
If I felt I wanted to comment on Rudd in some capacity unrelated to leadership challenges, I would do so.
I haven’t felt much desire to do so. There aren’t that many issues from 2007 to 2010 that haven’t been updated by more recent events – talking about what Rudd did or didn’t do is mostly redundant now.
Am I being childish?
Ten thirty hath struck and no Newspoll hath appeared.
Generic Person
[
Sex for dementia sufferers, why am I watching #qanda anymore?]
Could there be a link between those two points ? 😆
No Ghost and Mark Textor is guest tweeter for Lateline
Coincidence?
[Michael Danby is promoted to Parliamentary Secretary for Arts;
…
Don Farrell becomes Minister for Science and Research, and Minister Assisting on Tourism;]
Danby was fervently anti-Rudd wasn’t he?
Farrell one of the faceless men who installed Gillard in the first place.
The rest were good moves, but these two at least are big mistakes IMO.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/full-list-of-changes-to-the-gillard-ministry-20130325-2gp93.html#ixzz2OYCZTZNx
Jackol
As always, very sensible.
Oakeshott Country@3338
Always humble. And always prepared to admit I could be wrong.
Jackol,
It is the endless repetition.
[Russia redoing loan to Cyprus on earlier tweet.]
I expect the Russians hope to buy Cyprus outright so they can finally get that warmwater port they’ve been after for for 300 years.
[Psephos
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
Ten thirty hath struck and no Newspoll hath appeared.]
As conspiracy theories are not allowed what be your view on the reason.
Iggy Pop told me that he “fully supports” Prime Minister Gillard.
And they keep badmouthing Albo. He was doing the numbers, you dickheads!
Hey! – for those (like me) who can resist anything except temptation – STFU, with the name of a certain ex-ALP leader entered as a word/phrase filter (i.e. not as a Author Filter) makes “The Pledge” really easy to keep!
Maybe small slip in ALP primary?
NewsLtd journo
SNIP: Bemused being a dickhead deleted – The Management.
For those who think STFU is not sufficient, you can tape “Gillard is good, Gillard is good, Gillard is good” and put it on recycle and play it through headphones while rocking back and forth.
….if that makes you feel better.
Isn’t Samantha Maiden a News Ltd journalist?
samantha maiden @samanthamaiden 5m
What’s everyone’s tip re Newspoll ? I thought that last result a little bouncy. So, unlike Galaxy a modest dip in primary ?
Jackol
[Am I being childish?]
No way. I haven’t taken the pledge either. If I need to refer to former PMs I will do so but I don’t see the need for former PMs to be the subject of every second post. Thankfully, a day or two after the recent upheaval the subject appears to be dying a natural.
We could put Mega into parliament. He reminds me of Windsor. A quality act.
TLBD
One thing that mendacity does is prevent MSM calling PMJG a vindictive B**** bent on revenge.
Rocket Rocket@3358
You should post more often.
Let me make a little pre-Newspoll (albeit post-Galaxy and post-Essential) comment.
One of the reasons you might not see a dip in polling when one side has had a traumatic week is that some in the Australian electorate are so kind hearted they actually feel sorry for pollies who are getting pummelled.
I know this as some of my friends have voiced this opinion on last week.
I should add O’Connor is quite good as well.