Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has the Coalition lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last Galaxy result.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.

UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).

Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.

UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,499 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. ML

    Yes he was great on the point of how Abbott is the least succesful opposition leader ever. Nothing on the floor of the House with the greatest opportunity.

  2. The Fellowship has just realised that it has not given Player One anything. Therefore, and not just because we are bereft of Dwarrows, we award Player One the status of Dwarf.

  3. Could somebody please calculate the correlation between the timing of Newspoll’s release and how favourable it is for each party?

    Thank you in advance.

  4. John Hanna ‏@John_Hanna 38m
    Glad @TurnbullMalcolm wasn’t around when sewerage to the home was suggested. There would be a public toilet at the end of every street.

  5. Labor vote slumps after horror fortnight
    BY:DENNIS SHANAHAN From: The Australian March 25, 2013 11:00PM
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    JULIA Gillard’s personal standing has crashed to a 19-month low and Tony Abbott is clearly back in front as the nation’s preferred prime minister after Labor’s “appalling” two weeks of political and policy failure.

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, Labor’s primary vote has slumped five points to a disastrous 30 per cent after a fortnight that ended with the aborted leadership spill and mass cabinet resignations, with one in two voters now siding with the Coalition.

    The collapse in the Labor vote has completely wiped out the party’s recovery in the second half of last year and has entrenched the prospect of a landslide vote against the government in the election scheduled for September 14.

    After taking into account preference flows, federal Labor’s support is eight percentage points below its level at the 2010 election, at 42 per cent – a swing that if replicated in September would remove about 30 Labor MPs, including at least five ministers.

    The Prime Minister said yesterday she was appalled at Labor’s “self-indulgence” during last week’s leadership bid, which was brought on after the party’s proposed media laws collapsed. She declared she wanted to show “self-belief” and that Labor’s “eyes” would be on the “Australian people”. But the Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, shows voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard at the lowest since September 2011.

    For the second time in three Newspoll surveys since February, Mr Abbott has a clear lead over Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister 43 per cent to 35 per cent.

    The government’s primary vote of 30 per cent is the lowest since July last year, while the Coalition’s primary vote of 50 per cent is the highest since April last year. Greens’ support was virtually unchanged on 10 per cent.

    Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the Coalition’s two-party-preferred support rose six points to a 12-month high of 58 per cent as Labor’s fell to 42 per cent.

    Full details of the Newspoll will be published in The Australian and online on Tuesday.

  6. It could/could have been worse. But it will take a few polls to tell if anything systemic has happened I think. However those previous attitudinal results in galaxy were foreboding.

  7. Gary Gray is a very upright guy. In my previous life I once had to go to his office and explain to him why he (as minister in charge of government lands) could not oblige a certain government backbencher who wanted to get permission for his local council to acquire some land in his electorate for a community purpose. The land in question belonged to Defence, and Defence was not willing to relinquish it, for reasons which were good but not able to be disclosed, as is frequently the case. Things became quite heated, with the backbencher insisting that Gray overrule my objections, and Gray interrogating me in a very robust way as to who the f*ck did I think I was. Eventually I was dismissed fairly curtly. I assumed (a) that I had lost the argument, and that (b) I would get a bollocking for talking back to a minister and not giving him what he wanted. Later Gray rang my boss to say that (a) I was quite right, and (b) he respected my willingness to argue my case in the face of clear ministerial disapprobation. Things like that make a humble staffer’s day. So I have been his devoted admirer ever since.

  8. So we have:

    Newspoll 58
    Essential 54
    Morgan 56
    Galaxy 55
    Neilsen 56

    Average 55.8

    100 seats on Antony’s calculator
    Newspoll alone = 110 seats

  9. The ALP could recover from this in a couple of years maybe.
    Trouble is it’s got 5 months.
    It’s just too late.

  10. I will not sign the pledge not to mention a certain former Prime Minister, but I think that the leadership issue has now been decided. My position always was for the ALP to make up their mind one way or the other, stick to it and then concentrate on policy and on the real enemy on the opposite benches.

  11. Psephos,

    You have given us plenty material about our pollies over the years. Must be time for THE definitive volume!

    I’ll happily organize the publicity. Ten per cent? (I know, way too generous!)

  12. If last week’s was a rogue, so is this week’s.

    Newspoll reeling about like a drunken sailor lately.

    First one way, then the other… expecting us to believe 800,000 people changed their minds in two weeks.

    Not possible, but that won’t stop the gloating…

  13. ‘how can newspoll be so out of whack with galaxy and essential’

    How can newspoll be so out of whack with what we all know here at PB….what problem?

    The ALP will be returned with a large majority.
    Don’t panic.
    Everything is fine.

  14. Liberal Party supporters here..all jokes, puns, going off on a tangent and loyalties aside…Your man you want for the top job..;Tony Abbott…He’s been sold , first as “Tough Tony”..didn’t work..(Bad Bernie)he’s been sold as “No,No Tony”…that hasn’t “Gentler Tony” (self-destruct) that was a no..”Consciencious/Honest Tony” (Quick, Chris..RUN!)another no..the “Woman’s Tony”..(Opps!)no…as “Fluro Tony”..Ahh!..give up…Tell me truly..Just how are you gonna make this pig fly?

  15. On the Gary Gray appointment and his alleged links to Lavoisier, Grahame Readfearn who is most unlikely to provide cover fory Gray if he were currently a denier writes:

    [Just minutes after Prime Minister Julie Gillard announced Gray’s appointment, a handful of people I follow on Twitter were pointing to claims that Gray had been a founder member of the Lavoisier Group. On Climate Spectator, Tristan Edis also reported that Gray was a founder member of the “Lavoisier Institute [sic]“.

    But after looking into the Lavoisier archives and reviewing some documents sent to me by journalist Bob Burton, it’s pretty clear that Gray wasn’t even a member, never mind a founder member.


    Gary Gray did speak at the launch of the Lavoisier Group in Melbourne in May 2000. At the time Gray was billed as the former national secretary of the ALP – he had recently resigned from that position which he had held for seven years.

    Perhaps a reason Gray agreed to speak was that his father-in-law Peter Walsh, a former ALP finance minister, was a Lavoisier founder member and was president of the organisation for many years.]

    Australia’s New Energy Minister, Gary Gray

  16. [John Hanna ‏@John_Hanna 38m
    Glad @TurnbullMalcolm wasn’t around when sewerage to the home was suggested. There would be a public toilet at the end of every street.]


  17. WWP quotes:

    [Glad @TurnbullMalcolm wasn’t around when sewerage to the home was suggested. There would be a public toilet at the end of every street.]

    And people would deliver their excrement ‘wirelessly’.

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