GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.
UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).
Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.
UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.
But, what does it mean? Mysterious!
Display Name
I was expecting a huge dive, initially, and then a gradual return.
Still, I might still be proven right!
Hopefully my posts won’t appear twice on this thread!
[WTF Rudd is GORN #Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 32 (-2) Rudd 53 (+4) #auspol]
WTF? How is Rudd gone when he is clearly still more popular than Gillard and is infact improving his position!
Well Kevin B got his wish on preferred leader polling:
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 53 (-4) Rudd 45 (+6) #auspol]
The floor has been cemented – #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol
[#Galaxy Poll Who will lead ALP at #ausvotes: Gillard 59 Rudd 21 #auspo]
There goes Diog $500
A positive is the low number expecting Rudd to be the leader at election time – suggests the votes are genuinely in the belief that Gillard would win, and that the result won’t actually impact as badly on voting intention as I expected.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Most voters know what is better for the ALP than the ALP itself!
[#Galaxy Poll Did ALP make right decision by rejecting Rudd & endorsing Gillard: Yes 32 No 53 #auspol]
This result opens the way for post-Budget Rudd/Gary Glitter ticket. Riding a unicorn.
[There goes Diog $500]
Oh come off it.
That is a question ASKING voters what they think will happen.
That doesn’t tell us what will actually happen.
[WTF? How is Rudd gone when he is clearly still more popular than Gillard and is infact improving his position!]
Showy, Mother Teresa is dead and so is Rudd and she will also be more popular
[A positive is the low number expecting Rudd to be the leader at election time – suggests the votes are genuinely in the belief that Gillard would win, and that the result won’t actually impact as badly on voting intention as I expected.]
WTF?
It says that most voters think Labor will do something that most voters think is wrong, i.e. keep Gillard in the leadership.
Are most voters going to vote Labor when they think someone else should be Labor leader?
Rudd should be expelled once and for all.
conducted 22/23
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 53 (-4) Rudd 45 (+6) #auspol]
There would be a pretty big margin of error on this poll component because there’ aren’t many Labor voters!!!
[A positive is the low number expecting Rudd to be the leader at election time – suggests the votes are genuinely in the belief that Gillard would win, and that the result won’t actually impact as badly on voting intention as I expected.]
Also suggests that voters have a firmer grip on reality than the Rudd boosters here.
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) – bwahaha, #MSM said the biggest upheaval in ALP history, LNP PV went down
Shows, the question isn’t “is it wrong to have JG as PM”.
[Rudd should be expelled once and for all.]
If Labor expelled Rudd they would be lucky to win 40 seats at the election.
Whether you like it or not Rudd is the most popular Labor MP in the country.
[This result opens the way for post-Budget Rudd/Gary Glitter ticket. Riding a unicorn.]
😆
Having flown in on a pig.
LNP loosing votes to the greens!
Shows
There are a lot of people who vote for a party when they think someone else should be leading it.
Some people here are going to vote for Abbott when they’d prefer Turnbull; some are going to vote for Labor, even though they prefer Rudd.
People saying (in large numbers) they don’t expect Rudd to be leader (even though they prefer him) means that these figures are largely unaffected by a false expectation that Labor was about to change leaders.
What a bullshit, push-poll question. The ALP didn’t “reject” Rudd. Rudd didn’t challenge. And has ruled himself out of leading in the future.
Remember?
These pollsters are shit-stirrers and that is all they are.
[#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) – bwahaha, #MSM said the biggest upheaval in ALP history, LNP PV went down]
A change of 1% is well within the margin of error. You can’t actually claim the primary vote changed at all in a statistical sense.
If I were one for conspiracies, I’d say this poll was perfectly designed to reaffirm everyone’s view.
briefly@14
You are clearly a Lib mole!
Only a Lib mole or a complete fool would want the ALP to expel it’s most popular politician.
These results aren’t too dissimilar to the last Leadership challenge.
Labor’s vote stayed static despite all the dire predictions.
[That is a question ASKING voters what they think will happen.
That doesn’t tell us what will actually happen.]
Exactly, and all polls are precisely that. What they’re thinking today. 10% or some such change their minds, several times, if asked on a regular basis.
I dunno about leaving the party, but I wish to hell that Rudd would change his name.
[People saying (in large numbers) they don’t expect Rudd to be leader (even though they prefer him) means that these figures are largely unaffected by a false expectation that Labor was about to change leaders.]
Have you considered that a lot of people don’t think Rudd will be leader because they think Labor is so incompetent that they can’t even arrange a proper leadership team that is capable of winning an election?
I don’t see how you see that leadership question as a positive. It is a judgement of what the voters think will happen, now what the voters want to happen.
People in that survey overwelmingly want Rudd to be Labor leader.
[A change of 1% is well within the margin of error. You can’t actually claim the primary vote changed at all in a statistical sense.]
yes I can and i did 😛
[Exactly, and all polls are precisely that. What they’re thinking today. 10% or some such change their minds, several times, if asked on a regular basis.]
This is absolute nonsense!
There is a difference between asking “Who would you vote for?” and “Who do you think will win?”
The first is a question about what the voter WANTS to happen, hence that is where they are going to put their vote.
The second is about what the voter THINKS will happen, i.e. who will win the election.
[What a bullshit, push-poll question. The ALP didn’t “reject” Rudd. Rudd didn’t challenge. And has ruled himself out of leading in the future.]
Good point.
Although if the question had been framed ‘was Rudd right to rule out ever leading the ALP again’ I wonder if you’d get a markedly different result.
[#Galaxy Poll Did ALP make right decision to replace Rudd with Gillard (ALP Voters): Yes 46 No 43 #auspol]
No need for splaining
[#Galaxy Poll Did ALP make right decision to replace Rudd with Gillard (ALP Voters): Yes 46 No 43 #auspol]
No need for splaining
Rudd has expelled himself.
Pariah.
Ever consigned.
[yes I can and i did ]
So you are wrong, and for that you should be banned, so I’m adding you to my draft email.
[Did ALP make right decision by rejecting Rudd & endorsing Gillard:]
stupid Q like that – 80% LNP voters will say No
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@30
What is it you don’t like about ‘Kevin’?
[The floor has been cemented – #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol]
You will be pooing your little nappies when you see where the floor really is.
Haha the vitriolic little babies want Rudd expelled because because (Gillard continues to do badly). If that happened voters will desert Labor, permanently, in droves. Abbott would be PM for a decade.
[No need for splaining]
It’s a pretty useless question because at elections people who don’t vote Labor also get a vote!
A fair question to ask the respondents is “Would you vote for Tony Abbott even though he’s promising to take $5000 a year out of your pocket, increase taxes and give the proceeds to multi national mining companies?”
[What is it you don’t like about ‘Kevin’?]
All of him.
UNCHANGED??
But we have had chaos, the government in crisis, election now..
But, but….
They should have asked is Chicken KEV? it will yes 90%
@TP/41
Abit like Newman is in QLD, right ? 😛
Shows
and you appear to be missing my point, quite probably deliberately.
A majority wanted Rudd as leader. However, very few of those believed he would be leader come the election and a substantial proportion of those were obviously prepared to vote Labor anyway.
Quite a realistic attitude.
As I said, I consider this a good poll, given the circumstances.
TP, I am seriously concerned about your mental health. And I say that as one who specialises in the field
[You will be pooing your little nappies when you see where the floor really is.]
Painful one:
1. 100-0
2. 71-31
3. 100-0
4. Chicken KEV
5. Chicken is DEAD
Suck it up sunshine