Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has the Coalition lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last Galaxy result.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.

UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).

Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.

UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,499 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Now why would Galaxy still asked the preferred leader question? May as well ask the Abbott/Turnbull one, as Turnbull has more chance than Rudd of winning his party’s leadership

  2. Finns,

    Since my first mention of Chicken Kev, KFC shops have been sold out.

    Perhaps Kev should grow a goatee beard and commence a career as a Colonel Sanders impersonator.

  3. [A majority wanted Rudd as leader. However, very few of those believed he would be leader come the election and a substantial proportion of those were obviously prepared to vote Labor anyway.]
    Sorry, but the fact most voters in this poll both want Rudd as leader but don’t think he will be leader at the election is BAD NEWS FOR LABOR!

    You are just SPINNING if you think voters will be happy that Rudd won’t be leader at the election, that just makes it easier for the Coalition to get them to vote against Labor.

  4. [27
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    briefly@14

    Rudd should be expelled once and for all.

    You are clearly a Lib mole!
    Only a Lib mole or a complete fool would want the ALP to expel it’s most popular politician.]

    I could equally accuse you of being a Liberal stooge for tireless support given to a proven Rat.

  5. [TP, I am seriously concerned about your mental health. And I say that as one who specialises in the field]

    I think there a few diagnoses there to be made for those Gillard supporters who think this poll is something to boast about.

  6. Patience, in a month or so the effect of recent events will be reflected in the trend and then some here will really get to gloating. There’s no hurry.

  7. [You are just SPINNING if you think voters will be happy that Rudd won’t be leader at the election, that just makes it easier for the Coalition to get them to vote against Labor.]

    Showy, Rudd is DEAD

  8. [No comment about the fact that more ALP voters said they think changing to Gillard in 2010 was correct action?]
    The margin error for that question is huge. It is a statistical tie.

    And for the a millionth time, if all Labor can do between now and the election day is appeal to the 45% who are still willing to vote Labor it is going to lose in a massive landslide.

  9. [#Galaxy Poll Did ALP make right decision to replace Rudd with Gillard (ALP Voters): Yes 46 No 43 #auspol]

    ALP voters silly. Meaning it makes little difference to already Labor voters votes. Those already voting for Labor are doing so with Gillard as leader. A change to Rudd makes little difference.

    However where the election has to be won is with Liberal voters.

    Never the less with events like this the polls become erratic before settling down… give it some time to see the net result of the Gillard Crean fiasco.

    Cant say 55/45 is anything to cheer about.

  10. William, I would not boast about this poll, as Labor is ten points down. I think most of us were expecting a further dip, and are relieved that it did not happen

  11. Shows

    no, I’m not spinning, I’m looking at what the numbers say.

    The 45% who said they’d vote Labor did so with the expectation that Rudd wouldn’t be the leader.

    Obviously Labor will need to do better than that to win, but it strongly suggests that Rudd being out of the picture won’t affect the polls that much.

    (I think you realise this. It seems to me that this poll has genuinely shocked you – there’s an element of protesting too much here..)

  12. [I think there a few diagnoses there to be made for those Gillard supporters who think this poll is something to boast about.]

    gee Bilbo, it really shits you isnt it that PM is not GORN just like the rest of #MSM. Tough titties

  13. 55 – 45, with Labor primary vote on 32. Not too bad under the circumstances, unless the poll does not reflect the events of last Thursday, in which case it’s the next one we have to worry about.

  14. To make it clearer: if it had been 45% Labor, with (say) 40% of voters expecting Rudd to be leader at the election, I’d be regarding the 45% as a weak figure, likely to head downwards when those 40% twigged it wasn’t going to happen.

  15. Andrew@64

    William, I would not boast about this poll, as Labor is ten points down. I think most of us were expecting a further dip, and are relieved that it did not happen

    Relief? In some people’s eyes that’s practically exuberant partying! They’ll be up on their soap boxes soon admonishing you for demonstrating such liveliiness.

  16. [I think there a few diagnoses there to be made for those Gillard supporters who think this poll is something to boast about.]

    Nah. I’m actually quite bemused and wondering what the pundits will write about considering that the numbers haven’t gone south for the ALP. Some of them must have been salivating for an instant collapse.

    Give it a couple of weeks to flow through though and then the numbers may reflect last weeks events i reckon.

  17. [TP, I am seriously concerned about your mental health. And I say that as one who specialises in the field]

    Mate I’m one of the few here dealing with the reality, the maths and likely result of it all. And I have been consistent about this as has all the polling evidence to boot.

    The ones needing assistance are those that think bears zero responsibility for the current predicament of Labor. That is an amazing piece of denial.

  18. William Bowe@57

    TP, I am seriously concerned about your mental health. And I say that as one who specialises in the field


    I think there a few diagnoses there to be made for those Gillard supporters who think this poll is something to boast about.

    William, you have all our contact details.

    Perhaps you should call the appropriate Mental Health services for those you identify as badly afflicted?

  19. [Painful one:

    1. 100-0
    2. 71-31
    3. 100-0
    4. Chicken KEV
    5. Chicken is DEAD

    Suck it up sunshine]

    Kev’s little indians really are a sad lot. Abondoned left to fend for themselves.

  20. If you say so, Finnigans. Now try and imagine how a commenter like Nostradamus would have gone if he’d left a comment like this in response to a 55-45 result back in 2007:

    [#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (0) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) – bwahaha, #MSM said the biggest upheaval in ALP history, LNP PV went down]

  21. [Labor chaos sees 120,000 votes desert the Libs and move to the Greens. Was Christine Milne the mastermind?]

    Cunning stunt that wot??

  22. Not as bad as I thought for Labor, but as long as they’re in their rightful place – well behind, everything’s fine for me.

  23. So voters are marking Labor down for instability. It is true. Disunity is indeed death.

    Take the chance Labor Unite and see your polls improve.

  24. [The 45% who said they’d vote Labor did so with the expectation that Rudd wouldn’t be the leader.

    Obviously Labor will need to do better than that to win, but it strongly suggests that Rudd being out of the picture won’t affect the polls that much.]
    LOLOLOLO

    IS THAT THE BEST YOU CAN DO! Say that well at least the polls aren’t getting worse!? 55/45 is a landslide of 1975 proportions!!!!

    [(I think you realise this. It seems to me that this poll has genuinely shocked you – there’s an element of protesting too much here..)]
    No it hasn’t shocked me at all. It shows what we already know:

    1) Gillard Labor is losing in a landslide
    2) Kevin Rudd is far more popular than Julia Gillard.

    It seems obvious to me that if you want to correct 1, you make use of the information gleaned from 2.

  25. This makes sense. The events this week changed little. There is still a power struggle between JG and The Imposter. He has been weakened in the eyes of the politically-focused but most voters could hardly care about the fortunes of a few ministers or what did or did not happen in a non-vote.

    The Imposter will go on making trouble, as is his wont. Either the party will resolve the struggle, or the public will resolve it for them. This is not complicated.

  26. [Only a Lib mole or a complete fool would want the ALP to expel it’s most popular politician.]

    The Labor party cannot afford to have Rudd anywhere near it, and populist bullshit doesn’t change that. Far too many people from a diversity of backgrounds have described Rudd too well and too often to be ignored, and Mitchell’s boasting of contact with Rudd several times last week is one of the final nails in his coffin.

    Political career over, Rudd is finished because noone can ever afford to trust him again. Polls, whatever conclusions surveys come to, whatever, all irrelevant in the face of Rudd’s betrayal of his party, his colleagues and all who misplaced their faith in him.

    Vale Chicken Kev.

  27. [Now try and imagine how a commenter like Nostradamus would have gone if he’d left a comment like this in response to a 55-45 result back in 2007:]

    that’s why you cant get it Bilbo, cos’ the fact is it wasnt like that in 2007 😛

  28. briefly,

    The fact that not much has happened might encourage Gillard to “get a bit of stick about”.

    Butler and Albo may be looking to fill up the back bench off the back of this result.

  29. Thank you Bugler, and congratulations for being the first to notice. I’ll now be using loess smoothing instead of my clunky old rolling average, for those of you who care about such things.

  30. William, its clear that News Ltd commissing this Galaxy poll, wetting their pants in anticipation, hoping for an instant drop. Now I’m not saying that there will not be a lag in the polling, it is just good that there wasnt a sudden drop now. It would have fed into the OM narrative in a bad way

  31. [William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    If you say so, Finnigans. Now try and imagine how a commenter like Nostradamus would have gone if he’d left a comment like this in response to a 55-45 result back in 2007:]

    Been thinking about that, in 2007 I backed the polls, in 2013 I’m backing my gut feeling.

    Only think common is I am backing a failure of the MSM to get their candidate up.

  32. [1. 100-0
    2. 71-31
    3. 100-0
    4. Chicken KEV
    5. Chicken is DEAD

    Suck it up sunshine]

    Sort have this vision of cheering cattle as they are loaded onto a truck, slagging all and sundry triumphant, but refusing to listen to others….in their malice the are blinded to where they are really standing. But they will never blame the Station Owner, their beloved master, for their predicament.

    And there you all are cheering away at what terrible figures and with terrible implications, and also triumphant that a poll didn’t reflect what they would Immediately reflect. Really are you all that stupid?

  33. William,

    I seem to recall a poll on the day of the 2012 challenge that suddenly went 54/46 after months of much worse figures. All this talk about Kevin Rudd brings voters in but sinks back when he’s not available. Comment?

  34. @denniallen: Why doesnt a poll Q ask “Will you vote 4 a party that takes away pension ^/$182000 taxfree threshold/school kids bonus?

  35. [There is still a power struggle between JG and The Imposter. He has been weakened in the eyes of the politically-focused but most voters could hardly care about the fortunes of a few ministers or what did or did not happen in a non-vote.]
    Excuse me? 55% think Rudd acted honourably by not challenging:
    [Poll Rudd’s behaviour during #spill: Honourable & true to his word 55 Prima Donna 29 #auspol]

  36. I love how the OO are criticising Fairfax for their reporting last week. The OO had THE SOURCE, Mr Rudd himself, telling them he didnt have the numbers, which is why they did not go for the story with as much gusto as they would otherwise have.

  37. Shows

    I expected the polls to be much worse than this (I made a comment to this effect earlier today), and to stay there for at least a month. So of course I’m pleased that the first poll off the block shows no change.

    Of course I realise that polling like this replicated at an election means Labor would lose – but I have also said that I’d rather Labor lost and stayed on track long term than won by giving in to populism.

    Winning would be much better, and I’m not despairing of it. But it IS better to die on your feet than live on your knees, and a return to Rudd would have meant the party was doing the latter – not just subjecting its future to Rudd, but selling out on key ideals for the sake of better polls.

  38. This new poll….like many other recently..shows how solid is the Green vote…only the Greens prefs in many seats will stop a disaster from turning into a totsl wipeout without precedent for the ALP

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