GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.
UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).
Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.
UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.
[… it is just good that there wasnt a sudden drop now. It would have fed into the OM narrative in a bad way]
Clearly you’re a Gillardista if you think a 55/45 result is good for Labor!
There is too.
“The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike
@GhostWhoVotes thank goodness there’s consistency between preferred ALP leader and whether it made the right choice.”
That certainly seemed to happen last year, Desert Fox. But on that occasion there was a period where polls while it was known Rudd was challenging. This poll is slightly more analogous to the ones conducted after Rudd’s challenge failed.
I think firmness would help, GG.
“@kimmaree_tweet: Guess Aussies have stopped believing media spin RT@GhostWhoVotes38m
#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol”
DF
[ Comment?]
My uninvited one is that Rudd is poison.
[Sort have this vision of cheering cattle as they are loaded onto a truck, slagging all and sundry triumphant, but refusing to listen to others….in their malice the are blinded to where they are really standing. But they will never blame the Station Owner, their beloved master, for their predicament.]
TP, contact bemused to see if he will share his meds – you need them.
O wait …..
Ah cool new design William of the tracker, looks funky.
Should we say the Opposition’s support is 50% higher than Labor’s, or that Labor’s is only 33% lower?
[Shows
I expected the polls to be much worse than this (I made a comment to this effect earlier today), and to stay there for at least a month. So of course I’m pleased that the first poll off the block shows no change.]
So there you go again trying to convince me that 55/45 in favour of the Coalition is a good result for Labor.
You’e gone troppo!
[Of course I realise that polling like this replicated at an election means Labor would lose – but I have also said that I’d rather Labor lost and stayed on track long term than won by giving in to populism.]
So there you go. You are proposing the Mark Latham doctrine that Labor losing is better than letting Rudd become leader again.
Tony Abbott must really love you!
[Winning would be much better, and I’m not despairing of it. But it IS better to die on your feet than live on your knees, and a return to Rudd would have meant the party was doing the latter – not just subjecting its future to Rudd, but selling out on key ideals for the sake of better polls.]
So there you go, you are saying that you would prefer Tony Abbott as Prime Minister than have Rudd as Labor leader.
I think that is absolutely crazy. Clearly you don’t actually care about politics and what is good for this country.
[55 – 45, with Labor primary vote on 32. Not too bad under the circumstances, unless the poll does not reflect the events of last Thursday, in which case it’s the next one we have to worry about.]
Polling date 22/23 March.
While it is a 10 point spread, the fact that it is a set-of-scales, so to speak it actually only needs 5.1/5.2 point 2PP for ALp to be in front.
People keep thinking its 10, but it’s not.
Shows, that 10 points could also be said to represent the swinging voters (don’t know the actual percentage – perhaps William does?
They’re the ones that need to be convinced one way or another.
Twice in the past year, ALP jumped 3 & 5 points respectively in newspoll in the space of a few weeks. If it happened befre it can happen again if the govt gets clear air to talk about policy
Good. Funky is totally what I was aiming for.
[A Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has the Coalition lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last Galaxy result]
When was the previous Galaxy poll?
55 – 45 is within the MoE.
No change.
zoidlord
Has William been stealing s%it from Mark-the-Graph?
William Bowe@88
I still think you should work out how to decompose it into contituent signals. Actually, to start with something simpler than that, it should be possible to hover over an interval and get the list of politically significant events that occured during it. Too much of an irrelevant tangent?
ReachTel have been polling in QLD about Newman too.
[Twice in the past year, ALP jumped 3 & 5 points respectively in newspoll in the space of a few weeks. If it happened befre it can happen again if the govt gets clear air to talk about policy]
This is sheer idiocy.
Just because one poll shows an improvement of 5 points over 2 weeks is meaningless.
You have to follow the trend.
If all you do is hang out for the odd poll to show improvement then really what you are doing is just discounting all evidence to the contrary and are getting fixated on anything that supports your wishful thinking.
The totally disproportionate control of the old affiliated unions is one thing many of those who were behind Rudd want fixed, when:
“The proportion of members of affiliated unions who belong to the ALP is fewer than 0.5 per cent. Belonging to the ALP is not part of the life of a modern Australian worker.” (Rod Cavalier, quoted by Latham in QE49)
[Poll Rudd’s behaviour during #spill: Honourable & true to his word 55 Prima Donna 29 #auspol]
Some of the result to these additional questions are spelling big trouble for Labor.
Labor voters are not bothered one way or other of Labor changes to Rudd. These voters are already Gillard Labor voters.
Rudd goes up as preferred Labor leader and holds that by a large margin, and many of that figure will be current Liberal voters, who are the ones Labor must win back to avoid annihilation.
AND a large margin of voters see Rudd as acting honorably.
Well that indicates to me that there will be a flow through affect to Labor and especially Gillard in future polls. Though cannot really tell from one poll.
I wouldn’t not be cheering this poll as implications are dire for Gillard in that they have harmed themselves some more whilst boosting Rudd some more.
hank you Bugler, and congratulations for being the first to notice. I’ll now be using loess smoothing instead of my clunky old rolling average, for those of you who care about such things.
Oh, so that’s what it is! I’ve madly been polishing my screen to get rid of the spots.
SO
[If all you do is hang out for the odd poll to show improvement then really what you are doing is just discounting all evidence to the contrary and are getting fixated on anything that supports your wishful thinking.]
And you do it so well!
The Galaxy Research poll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/galaxy-130324.pdf
[The totally disproportionate control of the old affiliated unions is one thing many of those who were behind Rudd want fixed, when:
“The proportion of members of affiliated unions who belong to the ALP is fewer than 0.5 per cent. Belonging to the ALP is not part of the life of a modern Australian worker.” (Rod Cavalier, quoted by Latham in QE49)]
That’s great but would Rudd have fixed it? I don’t see the connection at all.
Shows never said it was good, although I can hear your frustration that is not worse.
A change to a 57/43 for example would have fed into the Labor chaos/support collapses/election now meme, whereas the no change does not.
That is all
[AND a large margin of voters see Rudd as acting honorably.]
Very good point!
The Gilardistas don’t want to dwell on the fact 55% of all voters seem to think Rudd didn’t do anything wrong last week. In other words that’s potentially 55% of people who think he is OK and would at least consider voting Labor if he was leader.
That’s makes a big contrast to Gillard who is struggling to hold on to 45% of the electorate each week.
AND a large margin of voters see Rudd as acting honorably.
I’m sorry. I missed that figure from GhostWhoVotes.
T.P.
Right on cue! Ta.
[I still think you should work out how to decompose it into contituent signals. Actually, to start with something simpler than that, it should be possible to hover over an interval and get the list of politically significant events that occured during it. Too much of an irrelevant tangent?]
Too much work, certainly. Not sure what decomposing into constituent signals involves, but the same is likely to apply.
[And you do it so well!]
WTF are you going on about? I go by the trend.
I don’t have to cherry pick polls when the trend has been so bad for Labor for such an extended time.
Freo win.
Cue an unhingement at work next week when my heavily Dockers dominated workplace combines with colour me purple day on Tuesday for leukemia or some such. 🙁
Basically if Newspoll goes back to around these levels then that is a tough position for Labor. That 52/48 Newspoll remains the only poll out of sync with a 55/54 to 46/45 situation for a while now. I would be surprised if we see any polls back around the 60/40 levels as the key issues that drove those numbers have become much less problematic for Labor.
BTW – does anyone have the faintest idea on what criteria Gillard has in regard to Rudd supporters in cabinet? It seems she’s not so tough when it comes to Albanese and Butler.
Laurie Ferguson isn’t impressed. He described Albanese as gutless for not resigning!
[A change to a 57/43 for example would have fed into the Labor chaos/support collapses/election now meme, whereas the no change does not.]
Andrew, the expectation was definitely 60-40. Now that would fit in perfectly with the new #MSM narrative of PM CRIPPLED
Galaxy. I expected a whole lot worse. For the Rudd supporters these are difficult days, but they will get over it. The best among them will recognise that the party is always more important than the individual.
So no change then?
Good.
On the way up.
The only reason they would still include Rudd in all this is to continue kicking the can along. So they are still players in other words.
[ The Galaxy Research poll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/galaxy-130324.pdf%5D
56% of Coalition supporters think Julia Gillard would make a better Labor leader than Kevin Rudd who only gets 18%!
Do any of the GIllardistas want to tell me why they think 56% of COALITION voters think Gillard would make a better Labor leader?
Do any Gillardistas want to have a guess why only 18% of Coalition voters think Kevin Rudd would be a better Labor leader?
[WTF are you going on about? I go by the trend.]
The polls have been 55 – 45 for months, within the MoE.
What trend?
William Bowe@129
Well, presumably instead of just points on a line signifying events, actual curves which sum (or however they compose together) up to what you currently have representing reactions to politically significant concerns, such as the environment, labor laws, etc.
Well, I’ll admit that particular request is a bit (read: “quite a bit”) of a fantasy ;). Is there even enough information (e.g. polls) about individual issues to make it practical?
j.v
Mar’n Ferguson was one of Rudd’s main backers, as was Kim Carr. Neither of those were about to do anything to dilute the influence of the unions.
Whats-his-name acted well?
Dreaming.
[Poll Rudd’s behaviour during #spill: Honourable & true to his word 55 Prima Donna 29 #auspol]
Do people this will be good for Gillard and for Labor?
That is a very clear indication of how people see recent events.
The net result on the polls for ‘significant’ events takes time to filter through to the polls do they not. So watch this space.
What is the lowest approval rating for a PM?
That is an astonishing stat. Gillard has stronger ‘support’ amongst Coalition voters than amongst Labor voters!
[ #Galaxy Poll Did ALP make right decision to replace Rudd with Gillard (ALP Voters): Yes 46 No 43 #auspol ]
Is this particular number genuine?
If so, it would seem the total vote is unchanged since the last poll, but with more Labor voters believing the ALP made the correct decision in dumping Rudd than not – despite all the grief that it has brought.
If it is indeed true, it seems like much better news than anyone predicted, and a better basis for the ALP to work from than they have had for some time, 6 months out from the election.
Of course, some of the ALP factional imbeciles here on PB will hate this result – but they are demonstrably now in the minority of ALP supporters.
However, on the basis of recent history, I imagine their unhinging will only increase as their support base gets smaller and smaller.
Bill Shorten’s strategy to become PM is right on track. It was his groupers & Conroy who are holding out against change. They will never give in to reform. It means the loss of their absolute power.
It also means the loss of the election, and any chance to make it even close. Possibly even give Abbott the Senate. But Bill doesn’t care. He’ll be set fair for the leadership in opposition.
As Latham said, “Over time, the preservation of power internally is regarded as a higher priority than satisfying the organisation’s external goals.”
That’s what we watched in action on Thursday and Friday.
Loving Galaxy continue to trash their fading reputation by framing questions with emotive terms like Lame Duck and Prima Donna.
And forensically dissecting aspects on ALP leadership with zero questions on Coalition leadership gives the game away for this Murdoch poll-for-hire.
Most of the confirmed Libs at work on Thursday didn’t want Rudd to win although they enjoyed the entertainment.
60% of voters think Gillard is a “Lame Duck Leader”.
[j.v
Mar’n Ferguson was one of Rudd’s main backers, as was Kim Carr. Neither of those were about to do anything to dilute the influence of the unions.]
I thought not. I don’t call any departing saying anything to indicate that they were concerned about such a problem in the ALP.
[If so, it would seem the total vote is unchanged since the last poll, but with more Labor voters believing the ALP made the correct decision in dumping Rudd than not – despite all the grief that it has brought.]
Oh brother. You are talking about already Gillard Labor voters, whose opinions mean very little in terms of the election, except to say they care not much one way or the other if Rudd replaced her.
That so many think Rudd acted honourably may be a little warning that the hope of wining current Liberal voters over will have diminished.