GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.
UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).
Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.
UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.
ReachTel reached me today, on behalf of undisclosed union campaign. Not a push poll by any means but somewhat loaded. Oddly, it asked voting intention twice – first then again at end.
Leunig (et al) say that there’s but two true emotions – fear and love.
Reading Laborites here, one’d have to say fear and hate.
[I thought not. I don’t call any departing saying anything to indicate that they were concerned about such a problem in the ALP.]
In Kim Carr’s press conference he said that the parliamentary Labor leader should be elected by Labor party members.
William, to expand on 139, an example: the rusted on party votes might be close to constant lines.
100% think that Kev is a dead duck as leader.
Of course coalition voters would support Gillard over Rudd. They’re not stupid!
‘Bill Shorten’s strategy to become PM is right on track’
This is the key. As everyone obsesses about Rudd and Gillard, Shorten obsesses about Shorten.
No prizes for guessing new opposition leader after Gillard is defeated in September.
mimhoff
It isn’t about Rudd. Many of those behind him saw him as a means to change the direction of the party – away from narrow vested interest goals, and back to being reformist.
If anyone thinks the AWU/SDA Short-Con groupers are gooing to take the party to anywhere but shallow pragmatic oblivion, they should think again.
That’s why Rudd was supported by most of them.
[56% of Coalition supporters think Julia Gillard would make a better Labor leader than Kevin Rudd who only gets 18%!]
and Julia Gillard gets 53% of Labor voters
Showy, that proves Galaxy Poll is a fraud
In fact Mar’n said the party should go back to the days before Rudd when the caucus (i.e. the factions) elected the front bench.
ShowsOn at 137 –
Those figures don’t add up. There’s no way you can get the total listed from the party figures shown – some transposition or other error has crept in.
We’ll worry about Bill after we win Adrian.
adrian,
I reckon the new Oppo Leader might be Hockey.
[@sundayteleed: The inside story of the aborted @KRuddMP coup. Everyone on the record in tomorrow’s Sunday Tele #auspol]
Expect the Daily TelaLie to be true to form, though at least they don’t pretend to be even handed like the charlatans at FairfaxMedia.
Re more war…..
Party and the zionist lobby…calls for US support for a war on Iran if Israel so wills it..
all this on the 10th anniversary of the Iraq disaster which caused the US financial and military ruin
…but the Lobby which only wants wars in the M East… may yet get one with terrible consequences fo us all
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/no-containment-no-peace/
davidwh@147
I’m not sure confirmed Liberals are any better than confirmed Labors at guessing how swinging voters think :P.
[and Julia Gillard gets 53% of Labor voters
Showy, that proves Galaxy Poll is a fraud]
FOR THE BILLIONTH TIME!
Labor needs to shift votes! It won’t win if all it does is please the 45% of people still willing to vote Labor.
There is a typo in the Galaxy tables, they say that L/NP voters prefer Gillard over Rudd as ALP Leader 56-18. It should be 18-56.
[Those figures don’t add up. There’s no way you can get the total listed from the party figures shown – some transposition or other error has crept in.]
OK. I admit I was shocked when I read it.
[56% of Coalition supporters think Julia Gillard would make a better Labor leader than Kevin Rudd who only gets 18%! ]
Reckon they might have entered those numbers the wrong way round.
So Rudd is dead and they still include him?
Agenda much?
Surely from now on they must include live players ie Turnbull versus Monkey.
It should be recalled that Rudd has all the financial resources he needs to do his own polling and market research, allowing him to craft his messages and appearances to maximise his brand values. In lots of ways, he performs like a de facto opposition leader. His you-tube effort yesterday is a good illustration of this. He is campaigning all the time and probably will be measuring his performance by routinely surveying voters.
Really, he is a Labor backbencher in name only. He is a political brand trying for revival. Abbott tries to achieve relative brand differentiation by assaulting JG, whilst Rudd seeks to advance his brand values by employing two over-lapping devices – on the one hand he attracts legacy support, and on the other he pirates the work put into official Labor brand. To make matters worse for JG, she also has another brand, the G’s.
Labor has to get serious about this. There is one leader-brand: JG. The Imposter has to be taken off Labor’s shelves. If KR really wants to build a leader-brand, he will have to do it without piggy-backing on the ALP.
j.v.
Sorry as an outsider to the party I am not getting this at all. It reads like the underpants gnomes plan:
[Phase 1. Get Gillard
Phase 2. ???
Phase 3. Profit]
The reasons why we don’t see massive shifts in polls (other than usual rogues/etc) is because *I think* people are reserved until polling day.
I’m interests in the LNP polling as to why they lost a -1 to the greens.
[56% of Coalition supporters think Julia Gillard would make a better Labor leader than Kevin Rudd who only gets 18%!]
Well isn’t that funny because for a very long time they certainly demonstrated that they will steadfastly refuse to vote for her, since she is the leader.
Does that mean the swinging voters are then in that 18%?
j.v.
[Many of those behind him saw him as a means to change the direction of the party – away from narrow vested interest goals, and back to being reformist. ]
Seriously. Rudd’s backers were mainly from the NSW Right. They’re about the least reformist people you can get.
And certainly, I repeat again – Mar’n and Carr are not reformists.
As I said to you earlier today, if you were a true progressive you’d be delighted that these guys were stepping down as Ministers. (Certainly Bob Brown is!)
[The reasons why we don’t see massive shifts in polls (other than usual rogues/etc) is because *I think* people are reserved until polling day.]
“reserved”?
Do you mean they have DECIDED that they ain’t voting Labor if Gillard is leader.
Now here’s an eerie thing from Nostradamus:
[The great man will be struck down in the day by a thunderbolt, An evil deed foretold by the bearer of a petition. ]
If I were to give the whole prophecy it would spoil the moment …
I see the famous ABC’s “JULIAR” typo
GhostWhoVotes@167
What, you mean we can’t conclude anything to do with cheeky Liberal respondents? 😛
And Galaxy can’t even get their tables correct, what a bunch of turkeys.
http://twitter.com/Thefinnigans/status/315424921180323840/photo/1
Check the Liberal split on preferred Rudd vs Gillard, farthest column on right
Oh shut up briefly, you’re like a broken bloody record. If you had any sense, you’d realise that this isn’t about Rudd anymore than it’s about Gillard.
Your unhealthy and totally over the top hatred of Rudd is getting tedious in the extreme.
[As I said to you earlier today, if you were a true progressive you’d be delighted that these guys were stepping down as Ministers. (Certainly Bob Brown is!)]
Yeah right mate, Bob Brown really has the best interests of the ALP at heart.
Remind me how many elections he helped Labor win during his career in the Tasmanian and federal parliaments?
The internal priority over ‘satisfying the organisation’s external goals’ at work:
“And the party’s national secretary George Wright told Labor’s national executive this week that it was planning its campaign on the assumption it would win 32 per cent of the primary vote – meaning it fully expects to suffer an election wipe-out of historic proportions.”
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/winning-is-not-labors-priority-20130322-2gl9w.html#ixzz2OMUg14pu
[There is a typo in the Galaxy tables, they say that L/NP voters prefer Gillard over Rudd as ALP Leader 56-18. It should be 18-56.]
Oh dear, and what an inconvenient typo to make! 😆
It is frequently the case that when something dramatic happens from our point of view that the voters are quite unperturbed. A lack of movement is not surprising.
[The internal priority over ‘satisfying the organisation’s external goals’ at work:
“And the party’s national secretary George Wright told Labor’s national executive this week that it was planning its campaign on the assumption it would win 32 per cent of the primary vote – meaning it fully expects to suffer an election wipe-out of historic proportions.”]
Yeah I read that this morning and was shocked that George Wright has given up trying to win too.
18/56 makes more sense. As if such a large percentage favoured her why have they never supported her.
Anyway the message is that the votes to shift wont be shifted by Gillard, and if anything the future seems to hold a further loss of support, if the Rudd-honorable figures are giving a hint.
All – still no good for Labor with so real warning signs in their.
I have an idea…why don’t they try and slag or trap Rudd some more, I am sure that will help their credibility.
Shows
Oh, I don’t have much time at all for Bob Brown, but j.v. does.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
@Thefinnigans @conceravota The #Galaxy tables have a typo, Preferred ALP Leader (L/NP Voters) should be Gillard 18 Rudd 56, not 56-18.]
i can only assume that 56% will include LNP voters like Painful one & bemused 👿
For comparison, the 2PP (Coalition/Labor) for past bad elections for the ALP:
– 1975: 55.7 – 44.3
– 1977: 54.6 – 45.4
– 1996: 53.6 – 46.4
JV
Pro tip: don’t cite Peter (Hearsay) Hartcher to support your position, if you want to maintain credibility.
@ShowsOn/176
No, as in make their judgement on polling day.
The poll found that the numbers had closed from 55-38 to 47-44.
On George Wright assuming a 32% primary vote:
The point of running an election campaign is so that your vote is higher at the end of the campaign than it was at the beginning.
I bet the doggys are really disappointed it is not 60-40
[ Oh brother. You are talking about already Gillard Labor voters, whose opinions mean very little in terms of the election, except to say they care not much one way or the other if Rudd replaced her.
That so many think Rudd acted honourably may be a little warning that the hope of wining current Liberal voters over will have diminished. ]
I don’t understand you at all, TP. You seem to be saying that the preferences of Labor voters don’t matter even if they prefer Gillard, and that the ALP should really select their leader on the basis of who appeals more to LNP voters? Well, ok – but in that case, it would seem that both parties should choose Talcum as leader! I think he’s more popular with LNP voters than bothe Abbott and Gillard!
And by the same arguments you appear to be using, more LNP voters than ALP voters think Rudd acted like a prima donna … so wouldn’t that therefore be a bad thing for Rudd?
No? Could you please explain it for us again?
sprocket_
Come on. That isn’t made up. Too easily verifiable.
Diogs,
I picked this!
I also picked that Rudd would not challenge because he did not have the numbers.
Thomas. Paine.@187
See the following (from davidwh)
Presumably because they would be cheeky Liberals who believe as you do, that they’ll be assured of a victory facing JG instead of KR. Alas, no such fun to be had :P.
[I also picked that Rudd would not challenge because he did not have the numbers.]
GG, Latham said Rudd has a history of Chicken Kev as you aptly called it