Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).
UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.
UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.
Jeez, it’s absolutely pouring with rain here. And it’s so cold I’ve had to turn the heating on.
Autumn: where are you!!
Is having a different opinion the definition of being a Troll around here?
And, the conservative 2pp exactly as it was in the 2010 election.
A loss position.
As a sop and I am happy to agree, one poll like one swallow does not an election win or summer.
However, it now forces the aggressive conservative media to rethink that all the phoney soft family photos and 60 minutes does not hide the fact that Abbott is a loser.
People just don’t like him or trust him.
Just fancy, after all this time and he has still gone backwards and his party’s vote is where it was way back when.
Expect even more stunts.
I think there was a disconnect between what labor was saying about 457 visas and what was reported, that even the average mug punter picked up on. The same thing happened with the misogeny speech.
I think the PM’s next one week trip should be to Queensland and she should highlight the danger of privatisation of Newman style service cutbacks.
nite rossmore
@Silky/152
I don’t think your a troll, and I believe it’s wrong to call people that.
Problem with politics & policies is the two clash.
Don’t tell me Latham had another crack at Robb’s depression?
Gawd I hope not.
Robb is a dill but that has nothing to do with his mental condition. That shit is strictly off limits.
Arrnea Stormbringer
[Menzies House is the domain of economic “rationalism” and social conservatism – neither of which appeal to me.
I’m not sure how you can claim the ALP is more conservative than the Liberal Party – sure, it’s more conservative than it probably ought to be, but it doesn’t outrank the economic rationalism and rigid social conservatism that currently rules the Liberal Party while pretending to be populism.]
I am sorry for the delay in responding.
I use the word “conservative” to mean those who consider traditional institutions and the associated conventions” as the best we have and are to be preserved.
Traditional conservatives accepted a noble obligation to look after their underlings and to preserve respect for tradition.
The Liberal Party has always been the party that ignored traditional conventions: 1975 denying supply; appointing a non party senate candidate; abusing question time with SSO etc
While Menzies was a Conservative, Menzies House is anything but.
The modern liberal party is not conservative, except if you think Conservative is just in terms of anti-sex.
It is a radical marketeer party.
Howards “devotion” to the constitutional monarchy was as false as most of what he stood for. Remember he wanted to open the Sydney Olympics ahead of the GG. This contrasts with the opposite tradition in Canada where the GG is always the head of state.
It is weird that I, as a socialist, defend “conservatism” against the rabid right.
Labor needs to run hard with this one and run it everywhere. If the recent poll in Queensland that showed 80-80% of people being opposed to privatisation is anything to go by, it’s a winning issue.
[I think there was a disconnect between what labor was saying about 457 visas and what was reported, that even the average mug punter picked up on. The same thing happened with the misogeny speech.]
Its quite possible that the disconnect between truth and bollocks re the NBN is becoming apparent as well.
[In final pre-conclave meeting, after 161 speeches, cardinals summed up to one another what they are looking for in a pope.]
“We are looking for an elderly Catholic male who speaks Latin and doesn’t molest boys. If this is you, write to Papal Selection Committee, PO Box 1, Vatican City.”
That last one is obviously meant to be 49, must have slipped into Coalition 2PP.
confessions@144
Its not my faction. I just happen to know someone in the faction. Their cynicism actually disgusts me.
But the honest answer is I don’t know. Things were hotting up nicely for them. I don’t think they expected quite such a big shift in PPM. However, their plans have been laid for weeks, and I doubt one poll will faze them. They will (as some here have already done) probably just call it a rogue and carry on.
As for me, I am just going to wait to see what happens by the end of the week. I think that deadline still holds, even if I don’t quite understand all the reasons why.
One thing I will say though – I think Gillard passed her Western Sydney “audition”. Now we just have to wait to see if caucus agrees.
Davidwh I suspect there are a good many more than 300,000 tradies and IT professionals working in Oz now. And a good proportion of them, their families and mates would have paused for reflection on the 457 narrative instigated by the ALP in recent days.
The MSM slams the ALP for appealing to its natural constituency, but Newspoll, IMHO, suggests it is on the money.
According to my logic labor is still owed a softball piece on the PM on 60 minutes as well as another piece on a labor luminary like PJK or Bob as well.
Good times ahead as Mercury Rev would say…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tF9FDQrSBI
Silky 152 generally yes at least at first.
Labor has said there is a need to review the workings of the 457 visas to ensure that they serve then purpose for which they are designed, i.e. to allow corporations to bring in workers to overcome labour shortages, not to allow them to bypass the local labour market to bring in cheaper, more compliant workers. However, the mainstream media misrepresented it as an attack on migrants. Nothing can be further from the truth. To the extent that anyone was criticised, it was dodgy employers, not migrant workers.
So the Liberals’ opposition to gay marriage, abortion and euthanasia isn’t conservative? These are all issues on which the Liberals (at least purport to) support the “way things are traditionally done” and it is their point of agreement with the Nationals – who are protectionists at heart.
As for economic issues – I consider both the Liberals and Labor to be economic rationalists, that is, neoliberals… Labor is just occasionally capable of looking outside that for reasons other than cheap populism.
imacca
That’s the very reason I haven’t bought the Australian since 2010.
Ruddstoration is staying. On What papers say they polled Labor if Rudd was leader. With Rudd leading Labor that showed Labor with a primary of 47%
Thanks Zoidlord. I know all about Trolls from when I moderated the Myspace Forums back in the day.
The sad part for me is the joy people get when Labor get’s close but not close enough. It reminds me of the way Dennis Shanahan used to get excited when the Coalition narrowed the gap a little every now and then in the lead up to the 2007 election. He used to cop so much shit but it seems like all the Labor supporters here are doing just what he did.
Good effort by Garret tonight on QandA … even better by Dr Emerson on Lateline. Haven’t seen Four Corners yet. Was it bad?
such is my cynicism of News Corp that I suspect Abbott’s approval/disapproval levels must be shockers if they are not published yet…
I assume I will discover in the morrow!
Green Vote holds up at 11%
__________
Those here who seize everyt chance to read the death ritover the Green should note that thier vote is still petty unchanged by other events
11% is very good for the Greens
Psephos @ 162
A fairly low bar isn’t it?
Arrnea Stormbringer @ 160
Queensland is the LNP’s weak spot. Newman is despised by many. In truth, I’m surprised he has managed to piss off so many people so quickly.
Pointing out that the Federal LNP fully supports the massive cutbacks in public services and Costello’s privatisation plans would really hit home.
@Silky/172
Have some faith, state issues I believe will be one of the key issues in the federal election.
NBN and other policies will also make play.
Goodnight
🙂
Player One:
I think it’s obvious they intended to ride the back of the WA election loss (even though no sensible person expected Labor would win here), and tonight’s Newspoll to push for leadershit/Ruddstoration.
They got the WA election result, hence the tales in today’s OM about Gillard’s leadership under threat, but the Newspoll kind of throws a spanner in the cog.
What now?
Havent watched QANDA yet. Garret did ok??
I’d expect him to. I dont think Pyne has even commented on the portfolio in the last couple of years has he??
Arrnea Stormbrigger
[Labor needs to run hard with this one and run it everywhere. If the recent poll in Queensland that showed 80-80% of people being opposed to privatisation is anything to go by, it’s a winning issue.]
I agree but I have yet to hear any ALP MP defend the virtues of public ownership for social infrastructure as a social neccessity as opposed to “it will cost you more” scare campaigns.
I believe that touches on the failure of the ALP. It has become agnistic about its traditional reason for existing and now argues that it can do capitalism better than the rightists
Re Menzies House…Swamprat
—
I read it regularly and it’s the home of a kind of Oz “Tea Party” some written by silly young Libs I suspect and big on “Libertarian” ideas…very much from the US-right…then Bernardi was there last year for some time with the Tea Party Repubs for some time …all fits!
@Zoidlord
I have hope but not faith.
I blame Gillards 8 point lead in PPM on the WA election. 😀
That would give labor a 56% 2PP wouldn’t it guytaur.
What a joke the MSM are.
Make Kev GG then, problem solved.
60 40 here we come!
Confessions we wait for the next poll and then the one after that etc. eventually we get to September.
Watched Alberici on Lateline with Emo. All the questions seemed focused on a Labor is doomed scenario. Just as the latest Newspoll came out. Sometimes I wish these commentators would step back and engage in a genuine dialogue with their interviewees, rather than searching for that elusive ‘gotcha’ moment. They and their audience might actually learn something.
imacca
Garret did very well… I got the impression most in the room were pro Gonski reform.
Arrnea Stormbringer, welcome. Ride the rainbow; crack the sky
Davidwh.
I did it even mention the 457 carry on. I happen to agree that it is a beat up. Including Labor. You are not naive.
Nor are the alleged 300000 voters.
I bet you would hate for me to suggest that you are bemused.
Agreed.
Garrett was very good on qanda. On top of his game, factual and forceful.
Prissy, given he has ignored the portfolio for 3 years was vague and generalist. No specifics, waffling.
Clear win to Garrett. This is the sort of thing the ALP should do more of. Smoke these lightweights out and engage them in policy discussion. They really are exposed under the spotlight.
Rossmore
[Watched Alberici on Lateline with Emo. All the questions seemed focused on a Labor is doomed scenario…]
True but she fed Emerson the openings to rebut… which he did. Should be more of it.
[ What now? ]
I don’t think they dare delay – especially not if things really are turning for Gillard.
My guess is we’re in for an even more hysterical week from the OM (if that’s possible!), intended to completely smother this poll result – which (if it is mentioned at all) will no doubt be called an “obvious rogue in the light of the recent WA election outcome”.
Then an attempted spill at the end of the week.
But I am just guessing here – I have had no additional information.
deblonay
[big on “Libertarian” ideas]
Never read Menzies house.
I was using it as a term from other comments. Hope I was not being deceitful.
But if” libertarian” are they sexually relaxed?
does that explain Abbotts, extremely clever, hint-hint about gay marriage?
Steve 777 168 Bang on with that post.
Crikey I don’t mind bemused but I am not him. I don’t have the nature to get as angry as bemused does on occasions.
[but the Newspoll kind of throws a spanner in the cog.]
They were probably hoping for more bad press from Rooty Hil as well.
Funny, but i think that rather than this poll being way to good for the ALP, the previous was wayyyyyy to bad (relative to the “actual” position).
Davidwh
Did not mean him.
david, it’s better to link events to changes in the trend, rather than changes from poll to poll, and those changes may occur with a time lag of a month or so. Every time someone does the latter and not the former, go back and read Possum’s latest article :P.
Or you could ask yourself how quickly you absorb information and before any one event affects you. Does your own opinion swing around just like that? Perhaps you do make snap judgements, but how long do you hold to them after further evidence or time to cool down?
Personally, the more naive/ignorant I am (within some domain/field, like politics), the more my opinion swings around and the longer it takes to settle, and more importantly, the more it is affected by the reactions of those around me. Or at least, that would be the case if I didn’t catch myself at it. Which is why it’s best to simply ignore noisy commenters, either here or in the media, unless you have real reason to believe they know what they’re talking about.