Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A slightly improving trend to Labor in federal polling over the past week is maintained by a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll.

Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).

UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.

UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,933 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 99 of 99
1 98 99
  1. [ If the PM has had the tap on the shoulder, surely all her staff would know, and there would be a ripple effect..]

    My thoughts too, Alias. News this big wouldnt be contained to one source in Darwin.

  2. What actual benefit is there to posting a surplus? Is there an AAA+++ rating that gets us gold-plated seats at the UN or something?

  3. at @4904 – retaining a bit of credibility is always a good starting point.

    We keep hearing how good the BISONs are for the Australian economy – best in the world apparently – yet the ALP can’t organise a surplus – what’s it going to be like when things really go to shit? And if this is good, apparently, when is it going to be really good enough to return a surplus?

  4. Of course the general conversation of the banks, economists, you know those wise individuals, was the Govt should not pursue a surplus. However the downturn in income for the Govt meant there wouldn’t be one, well ummm, the budget hasn’t been presented yet, what if there is a surplus?
    OMG!!! no change of leadership and fair suck of the sav (sorry Kev) arghhh a surplus…crank will you cope chappie?

  5. I think Labor (being somewhat desperate) should have the guts to run the following line:

    “Look, we know we harped on a bit about delivering a surplus, but honestly that was pretty stupid because a surplus is actually no big deal at all. This is some obsession we’ve all developed down here in Australia while the rest of the world is much more concerned with alarming levels of public debt as a proportion of GDP. Now this is a bit more complicated to consider but this is serious stuff and we invite you all to take a hard look at the actual economic conditions we have maintained in this country as compared with the diabolical conditions facing many in the Western world..” etc

  6. Jumping in to agree with your post before you post something stupid again alias. That’s just the kinda thing I would have liked to have seen when the commitment was dropped.

    But no matter how it was phrased it would be reported the same way.

  7. zc @4907 there is more chance of a leadership change than a surplus – they lost $4.6 billion in January this year alone.

  8. Compact Crank

    When things really go to shit the Coalition look likely to be the ones in charge so what’ll it look like? A bit like Britain today I imagine. Lots of people there regretting their vote.

    I know who I’d prefer to have in charge if things went rapidly downhill. Especially if I had the misfortune to work casually or in a low-paid job. Or Dawkins forbid, unemployed or disabled.

  9. @CC/4910

    One thing you got right was leadership change, but they not coming from ALP, they are from the Liberals, Remember NT and Victoria?

    Will Newman or Abbott be next?

  10. It should be noted lots of those calls were made from the business community who apparently don’t care much about a surplus either.

    So in that regard at least the failure to achieve a surplus is the most business-friendly move this government has ever made.:D

  11. Alias appreciate if you wouldn’t mind explaining why Labor is desperate? Incidentally I would hone up on your writing skills if you expect the Govt to, you know check you out.

  12. Crankie one. again you are like the riddler. Do I take from your latest ‘robust’ post hehe sorry but you are amusing, that if the Govt have a surplus, then there will be no challenge to the PM? However, oh you are devious,if there is no surplus, there will be a challenge to the PM’s leadership!!!! Delightful you should be in comedy dear thing, such a humour, beautiful

  13. Keane can be up and down, but this is worth it for byline alone:

    [By trying to insist newspaper self-regulation actually works, Conroy is in fact giving the industry a chance to avoid actual regulation, or even the “co-regulation” that currently applies to broadcasters. Because if we get a government that decides to act on the apparently widespread conviction among voters that we need more direct government regulation of the media, it really will be a threat to a free press.]

  14. And this:

    [if Williams were serious about protecting a free press, he would speak out about another, far clearer threat: the government’s proposed national security reforms, including data retention. Under the EU data retention model favoured by Labor, journalists’ confidential sources have already been tracked down and revealed by the Polish government using telecommunications data. The proposal is a direct threat to a free press. But the only substantive coverage the issue has received in Williams’ newspapers was an absurd rant by Greg Sheridan to the effect that data retention was the only thing between Australia and mass murder.]

  15. Compact Crank

    [reduce debt or delvier surpluses.]

    What is this rightist obsession with “surplus”. It makes no economic sense in many situations. It is a desire to encourage recession, as in Qld and Vic at present ,. What is the purpose of this childish nonsense?

    Is it psychological? Was your nappy training a bit off?

    Or is it your economical equivalent of global warming denial?

    Or is it a subterfuge to sell the few remaining public assets.

  16. Morning dear ones. I was perusing the posts, wanted to comment on this and that of moment. Unfortunately, the log on put me back to page one. So lost my train of thought.

    But never mind that. I see from the recents that the naysayers are back. I would like to offer you an incidental note of appreciation for adding to William’s worth in the eyes of Crikey.

    Every click counts. Your contribution is valued.

  17. The SMH used to be OK for a quick look at the main page for the latest news. The new format is crap and seems designed for max hits. It really has an unattractive look in my opinion. More and more right wing rubbish. Fail!

  18. This sounds familiar.

    Next Previous Blog home
    Cameron, the editors’ press freedom hero, versus ‘draconian’ Miliband
    The majority of nationals lauded the prime minister for his opposition to statutory underpinning for a new press regulator
    Share 104


    The Daily Mirror’s headline on Friday.
    Prime minister David Cameron might have enjoyed his national newspaper coverage this morning. It was predictable that his opposition to statutory underpinning for a new press regulator would be greeted by headlines in his favour.

    Three examples: Cam showdown to save our free press (The Sun), Cameron refuses to introduce press laws (Daily Telegraph) and Cameron fights for press freedom (Daily Express). The Daily Mirror, no friend of Cameron, portrays him in its headline as a champion of freedom: PM faces Commons battle to stop newspapers being shackled by tougher law.

  19. The !surplus’ is a political obsession. It has no resonance outside of Canberra horse race commentary
    circles or the shrill inward looking, economically ignorant partisans on blogs such as this.

  20. Mr Denmore

    Quiet right.

    And our national private debt shows that the vast majority of Aussies are quite comfortable living within a deficit realm, facilitated of course by their credit cards and the lenders who happily allowed them to commit to huge monthly mortgage payments.

    On a much ore serious note, I don’t know if you’ve read last night’s discussions here, but it is an open secret in Cambra that when the leadership coup is executed early next Monday morning, the new PM Janette Saffon will commit Labor to having no surplus until 2037. She is going to make that a law, L-A-W.

    I have several close friends in the PM’s office who have leaked this to me.

  21. “Mr Denmore
    Posted Saturday, March 16, 2013 at 9:02 am | PERMALINK
    The !surplus’ is a political obsession. It has no resonance outside of Canberra horse race commentary
    circles or the shrill inward looking, economically ignorant partisans on blogs such as this.”

  22. Labor deserves everything it gets. No one forced a gun to their heads and made them promise a surplus over 500 times. Gillard and swan also deserve to lose because of their incompetence, ineptitude and lying.

Comments Page 99 of 99
1 98 99

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *