A small-sample in-house poll by The Advertiser detects a big bounce for the Liberal Party under its new leader Steven Marshall.
A small-sample in-house poll by The Advertiser (412 respondents, margin of error around 5%) has the Liberals opening up a 59-41 lead under their new leader Steven Marshall, from primary votes of 30% for Labor, 54% for Liberal and 6% for the Greens. Jay Weatherill retains a narrow 36-33 lead as preferred Premier and is rated as doing a good or fair job by 72%, against 49% for Marshall.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Honeymoon poll; don’t overanalyse.
Somewhat unlikely.
Still it does fit with WA, NSW, Qld and Tassie!
I think, in all likelihood, what we’ll say is the Libs winning but with around 53-54% of the vote. However, Marshall has demonstrated he is gaffe-prone and the always-ready-to-strike SA ALP may seize upon anything too damaging and could pull a surprise win. Abbott being PM for 6 months at that point may help Labor (as, by then, his honeymoon will have ended).
However, as it stands, I see Marshall and the Libs winning probably 25-26 seats and, with them, government. If the kinds of things he has being saying so far are reflective of how he’ll govern, I expect his popularity will dive in no time and they will just completely sink the economy (as well as cut every bit of positive investment that has helped this state grow, both economically and culturally – turning it back into the depressing nursing home it used to be, to “save money”)
I would think Pat Conlon shooting the Labor Party somewhere more important than the foot could be a big factor in what looks otherwise a quite wacky poll
412 respondents looks awful small to me. Is that a normal sample size for a SA poll?
It’s normal size for most Advertiser polls. Newspoll’s are at least double that, but they’re conducted over three months.
Wakefield
I wouldn’t be rushing to get preselection in Conlons seat. Could be a bumpy ride the voters aren’t used to being treated with quite that much contempt.
[I wouldn’t be rushing to get preselection in Conlons seat. Could be a bumpy ride the voters aren’t used to being treated with quite that much contempt.]
John Howard worked for a law firm at the same time that he was a member of shadow cabinet in the late 1980s. I believe he was shadow I.R. minister and was working for a law firm that specialised in I.R. law.
It didn’t stop him from becoming Prime Minister.
If a poll is conducted by a newspaper, wouldn’t that mean the result is naturally going to lean to the right? I’m just guessing, I don’t know if there have been studies done etc, but isn’t it generally agreed that leftists are less likely to read a newspaper?
Karl
It’s a phone poll.
It’s not a poll of Advertiser readers specifically. It’s a random sample phone poll, much like the main polling houses conduct (though presumably with less expertise).
There’s no reason to see it as inaccurate. As I said, it Marshall’s honeymoon period. I previously predicted the first post-Lib leadership change poll to be 57-43 in their favour, so I wasn’t far off.
That’s not to say the threat to the government is imaginary. Far from it. The fact that polling like this exists, honeymoon or not, demonstrates a very strong vulnerability. It’s just it’s unlikely to be that strong in the long-term.
Ah of course, makes sense.
Predictably, ALP supporters will say this is a honeymoon bump, and Libs will say the tide has turned.
The reality is that this reflects a trend away from Labor which had been reversed in the last poll when the Libs were led (if that’s the word) by the increasingly gaffe prone and moribund Isobel Redmond whose leadership style was the main issue of the day.
Now, the Libs are re-energised, and despite Marshall’s own foot in mouth moments, the public will forgive him a bit (I don’t expect the same to be said of PBers) and the focus is really back on the government and who will pull the state out of the poo.
I do not expect subsequent polls to be much different from this one and even though there will be some tightening up nearer the election no doubt, even Labor MPs here are privately saying they are doomed.
BTW, Labor are looking for another candidate for Elder now the favourite has pulled out after part time Pat’s fiasco.
Like other posters who live in Adelaide I find this result surprising on the high side or Liberals. Marshall has performed well so far, but then so has Weatherall. Too soon to say what the new base will be.
IT
[BTW, Labor are looking for another candidate for Elder now the favourite has pulled out after part time Pat’s fiasco.]
I didn’t know that when I made my comment but I’m not surprised!
Agree that this result has been hovering for a long time. Weatherill held the line for a while against the dithering Redmond, but now that the Libs have a half-decent leader it’s kismet for Labor. Conlon provided the catalyst. Only a nightmare start by the new Abbott regime can offer Labor any hope in SA, but it’s more likely to be in honeymoon mode.
59 – 41
Pfft!
There’s no reason to suppose SA will be different to all the other states. Long-term Labor government showing signs of tiredness + half-acceptable Oppo leader = change of government. The Tas Labor-Green government will fall in the same month, and thus we’ll be back at the start of the cycle again, with new or newish Lib-Nat governments everywhere except the ACT. With any luck Abbott will be so toxic that the states will start going back to Labor, starting with Victoria in late 2014.
Psephos if the libturds are as accurate about predicting the rise and fall of State and Territory govts as they are about the overthrow of Julia Gillard, we can all sleep peacefully in our beds.
The absurdity of such a small poll in SA is equivalent to one flea on a dog
As a snapshot in time, this poll is probably not far off the mark. In one year, with Abbott in full cry, it may be quite a bit closer but the ‘It’s Time’ factor will be compelling.
Win or lose, Labor will be able to point to an impressive legacy such as the new RAH, the revamped Adelaide Oval and electrified railways.
[As a snapshot in time, this poll is probably not far off the mark. In one year, with Abbott in full cry, it may be quite a bit closer but the ‘It’s Time’ factor will be compelling.
Win or lose, Labor will be able to point to an impressive legacy such as the new RAH, the revamped Adelaide Oval and electrified railways.]
Agreed completely. Hopefully the Libs, if they win, will see some sense in some of the current investment policies and continue a pro-active path to keep the city vibrant and transition into new industries, rather than just pull the plug on it all to “save money” and give tax cuts and subsidies to dying industries, in order to keep them alive. With Marshall at the helm, it’s a possibility. However, with Evans holding the purse, I have strong doubts…