Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A slightly improving trend to Labor in federal polling over the past week is maintained by a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll.

Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).

UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.

UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,933 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [davidwh
    Posted Friday, March 15, 2013 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    What does it mean when those trying to post ridiculous possibilities make more sense than the serious ones?]

    Are you sure the rubbish the print in teh murdoch rags is “serious”.

  2. [ What does it mean when those trying to post ridiculous possibilities make more sense than the serious ones?]

    That the so-called serious ones are completely off the radar.

  3. [ It means no one really gives a toss atm ]

    I reckon we should wait till caucus next meets, lock the door and then set fire to the whole place.

    White smoke means Gillard. Black Smoke means Rudd. Ganja smoke means the Greens get the gig.

  4. [I wonder what stephen Fielding is up to these days? GG maybe for him?]

    Nah, the GG gig will be one Abbott is sure to give to Pell.

  5. For the record, Bob Gosford said several weeks ago that Adam Giles would take over from Terry Mills.

    It doesnt mean hes right about next Wednesday.

    William and Boerwar summed up Bob pretty well earlier.

    And NT politics is really not as bizarre, beastly or Byzantine as you think.

    The whole Southerner thing has lost its zip when nearly every whitefella over 20 is one anyway. And the blackfellas, well everyone tells them what to do North, South, East or West.

  6. I heard it was Oakey.

    That’s why it’s happening on Wednesday. He’s only just started his first speech as PM tonight.

    Not even up to the “national unity government” bit yet…

  7. [For the record, Bob Gosford said several weeks ago that Adam Giles would take over from Terry Mills.]

    Is this true?

    If so, I stand corrected on the NT stuff.

  8. In Breaking news: Poll Bludger has consumed itself in a fit of leadershit speculation and died at the scene. Police are keen to speak with former moderator and founder, William Bowe, last seen shredding bogus bludgertrack data and behaving suspiciously. A ninety year old gentlemen wearing a cape covered with capital letters is assisting with inquiries.

  9. [William welcomes diversity of opinion]

    Not sure that Rudd v Gillard v Rudd v Gillard v Rudd qualifies as diversity to be honest.

    On an unrelated topic the Croweaters have given a masterclass over the last two weeks in how to throw away a Shield final berth.

  10. Anyone want to add to the absurdity of the Tory Republicans/MSM predicting the demise of PMJG

    15/05/2011 – Gillard is dead, politically dead – Peter Costello
    06/06/2011 – Gillard gone by December – Andrew Bolt
    01/09/2011 – Labor stalwart says Gillard β€˜finished’ – Jeremy Thompson
    06/09/2011 – JULIA, resign. Let Rudd resume rightful role – PHILLIP ADAMS
    17/07/2011 – Gillard down for count – Phillip Coorey

    20/02/2012 – Gillard delusional and in retreat – Dennnis Shanahan
    21/02/2012 – Too late for Gillard to save herself – BY: NIKI SAVVA
    23/02/2012 – Assassins reap what they sowed – Simon Benson
    21/04/2012 – Gillard will be GORN by end of May, Hewson & Richo jointly on #Slynews
    30/04/2012 – Credibility gone, PM should fall on her sword , Michelle Grattan
    02/05/2012 – Julia’s going: it’s a matter of time – Dennis Shanahan
    18/05/2012 – Despite the poll and budget uptick, Gillard and Labor are doomed – Richo
    19/05/2012 – String of disasters mean the party’s over for Labor – Piers Akerman
    26/05/2012 – A leadership change to Kevin Rudd is the last real option – PvO
    28/05/2012 – Lame duck Labor likely to waddle on to term – Gerard Henderson
    25/07/2012 – Labor’s choice is Rudd or oblivion – PAUL KELLY
    12/06/2012 – Determined Gillard may be, but her leadership is looking terminal – Shanahan
    14/08/2012 – Pride comes before a fall for Gillard Government – Derryn Hinch
    23/08/2012 – Gillard in big trouble no matter what happens – Leo Shanahan
    12/09/2012 – Just like Howard, Abbott has the numbers that really count – JANET ALBRECHTSEN
    13/10/2012 – Misogyny tactic will backfire – PAUL KELLY
    13/10/2012 – Gillard’s hypocrisy stripped bare – CHRIS KENNY
    05/11/2012 – Hanging by a thread by Peter Hartcher
    24/11/2012 – Knives are out for Gillard – Peter Hartcher
    29/11/2012 – Ducking and diving, but PM’s goose is cooked – Piers Akerman

    05/01/2013 – Rudd’s support for a challenge edging closer – Mark Kenny
    15/02/2013 – An adrenaline charged Rudd increases pressure on Gillard – Michelle Grattan
    18/02/2013 – Poor poll for Labor plays to Rudd’s ambition – Michelle Grattan
    19/02/2013 – Beware knives of March – Mark Kenny
    19/02/2013 – Gillard’s departure is a matter of timing – Peter Reith
    19/02/2013 – Final nail in PM’s coffin – David Day
    19/02/2013 – Something has to give – sooner or later – Lenore Taylor
    19/02/2013 – Desperate caucus eyes leadership switch – BEN PACKHAM
    19/02/2013 – PM Julia Gillard β€˜gone’ if she struggles in next week’s Newspoll – Tory Shepherd
    19/02/2013 – Labor’s critical question: time for a new leader? – The Age Editorial
    19/02/2013 – Julia Gillard’s support base is softly slipping away – Simon Benson
    19/02/2013 – Kevin Rudd’s odds on leading ALP in September election shorten to $2 – news.com.au
    19/02/2013 – Labor in despair over dire poll – Phil Coorey
    19/02/2013 – Dead woman walking – SMH
    19/02/2013 – Final nail in PM’s coffin – David Day
    19/02/2013 – Rudd’s just in storage, waiting for sun to shine – Tony Wright
    20/02/2013 – Dear Julia, it’s time for a dignified exit speech – Alan Stokes
    22/02/2013 – PM should go for party’s sake – GRAHAM RICHARDSON
    23/02/2013 – Gillard may not recover this time – Katharine Murphy
    23/02/2013 – Drumroll, then exit on a final cymbal crash – Tony Wright
    23/02/2013 – Julia Gillard risks her legacy by not ceding to Kevin Rudd – PETER VAN ONSELEN
    23/02/2013 – Labor feels guilty over Rudd: Turnbull – Malcolm Turnbull
    23/02/2013 – Teams lining up early for a Coalition victory – Lenora Taylor
    02/03/2013 – Hating Kevin, loving the saviour – Peter Hartcher
    10/03/2013 – Deadline looms for Prime Minister Julia Gillard – Sam Maiden
    11/03/2013 – Julia Gillard must resign as leader or Labor is doomed at the election – news.com.au
    11/03/2013 – Clear message from the west is that Rudd is the only hope – Peter Hartcher
    12/03/2013 – PM’s backers must move for the greater good, says Rudd camp – Mark Kenny, The Age
    12/03/2013 – Fran Kelly & Peter Collins #newspoll will give PM Gillard one more week to survive
    13/03/2013 – Demoralised Labor hangs on every poll – Peter Hartcher
    15/03/2013 – Media bill threatens leadership – Mark Kenny SMH

    The one person who that pathetic conglomeration of FW’s want, to have the spine to have a go, so they can at least give Abbott a minuscule chance of getting into the Lodge is everyones clown Kevvie. Sorry he doesn’t have the numbers by plenty.
    Next question?

  11. ZC @4879 – and for your next trick you are going to list all the times the PM and Cabinet Ministers promised delivery of a surplus this year.

  12. Anyone want to post the video of the ALP Cabinet Minister (West Aussie I think) fronting the cameras outside Parliament on the night Gillard gutted JuanKRudd?

    What was it he said?

  13. Confessions,

    Yes he did. To be fair though every stobie pole between here and Kulgera knew somone was going to take over. And after John Elferink’s coup attempt, when the only vote he got was his own; and Dave Tollner being one of NT’s biggest wankers, it made sense. But right he was. He would know more about Central Australian politics than he would about Canberra though.

  14. My dear crank you dwell on the past, we live in the now. I have never entered into the stupidity of taps on the shoulder here, when it is brought up, you don’t defend it you remind me of a Rudd appearance being gutted5 years ago. Oh such a memory you have. means nothing within todays rubbish of tapping shoulders but please dwell its good for the soul

  15. Z @4884 – it was very important and the PM and ALP surely thought it was given how often and how long they promised it for – and the fact they now have decided to let it go shows that politics of winning is more important to them than the long run economic health of the nation – reversion to mean is the statistical term for the ALP inability to reduce debt or delvier surpluses.

  16. The odds with the bookies for Labor leader have not budged an iota since the Bob Gosford item. Not conclusive evidence he’s wrong but if he is correct, the information is being very tightly contained, which seems surprising. If the PM has had the tap on the shoulder, surely all her staff would know, and there would be a ripple effect.. Doesn’t stand to reason that several hours on, this nation transforming information is still possessed only by Mr Gosford. Still, you never know.

  17. Crank have another tipple you are in your element, I’m enjoying trying to decipher your interesting wordology, Do you come here often?

  18. CC @ 4888

    Are you saying that making further budget cuts in order to guarantee a surplus would be better for the “long run economic health of the nation”?

  19. William, I can’t recall who it was but someone was fronted walking into Parliament right before Gillard pullled the trigger and flatout denied anything was happening. I think it was the WA Senator who just snatched his rent.

  20. A surplus didn’t make my life any better under Howard and although delivering a surplus under this government might have been a nice internet partisan gloating tool it wouldn’t make my life any better now.

    Living in an internationally envied economy does, however, make my life a hell of a lot easier. The same part of Australia’s voting public sucked into the surplus fetish will mostly be paying off their current credit card debts a decade from now so I care little for their opinion.

  21. mimhoff @4894 – yep, cut taxes and cut spending even harder, and sell a few assets starting with non-rural portion of the AlpBC.

  22. aw @4896 – an interesting observation at odds with the fact that since the GFC Aussies have become net savers, significantly reducing private debt ratios.

  23. Cranky one, do you actually live in 2013? I note going through your contributions they are in the main history!!
    What has held you back dear boy?

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