Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).
UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.
UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.
Bemused I responded earlier. You missed it obviously.
Rossmore@4851
You were non-committal.
Gods! How desperate must this man be getting …
[ Abbott pledges land rights for gay whales ]
… what does he know that we don’t?
[They are to nominate ms Mirabellaas GG.]
Some of these have been funny. This is just off. 🙁
Janelle Saffin??? might as well ask Daren Cheesman
Rudd or bust…ATM it looks like bust is way out ahead
Simon Findlay Crean.
That is all.
Simon Scotty Neville I hear
What does it mean when those trying to post ridiculous possibilities make more sense than the serious ones?
It means no one really gives a toss atm
davidwh@4859
Bob Carr for PM
I heard John Howard is coming back as Opposition leader, Tony Abbott will get GG job.
[davidwh
Posted Friday, March 15, 2013 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
What does it mean when those trying to post ridiculous possibilities make more sense than the serious ones?]
Are you sure the rubbish the print in teh murdoch rags is “serious”.
Steven Conroy PM (hail)
david, I think it means people have discovered a fun new game!
[ What does it mean when those trying to post ridiculous possibilities make more sense than the serious ones?]
That the so-called serious ones are completely off the radar.
Goodnight all.
Have fun. 😀
Except Dennis Jensen, who I am reliably informed is more popular that Kevin Rudd in Tangney.
[ It means no one really gives a toss atm ]
I reckon we should wait till caucus next meets, lock the door and then set fire to the whole place.
White smoke means Gillard. Black Smoke means Rudd. Ganja smoke means the Greens get the gig.
I was referring to the serious ones here Fred. I’m not game to suggest News publishes serious stuff here on PB.
I wonder what stephen Fielding is up to these days? GG maybe for him?
4869 has real possibilities.
[I wonder what stephen Fielding is up to these days? GG maybe for him?]
Nah, the GG gig will be one Abbott is sure to give to Pell.
For the record, Bob Gosford said several weeks ago that Adam Giles would take over from Terry Mills.
It doesnt mean hes right about next Wednesday.
William and Boerwar summed up Bob pretty well earlier.
And NT politics is really not as bizarre, beastly or Byzantine as you think.
The whole Southerner thing has lost its zip when nearly every whitefella over 20 is one anyway. And the blackfellas, well everyone tells them what to do North, South, East or West.
I heard it was Oakey.
That’s why it’s happening on Wednesday. He’s only just started his first speech as PM tonight.
Not even up to the “national unity government” bit yet…
[For the record, Bob Gosford said several weeks ago that Adam Giles would take over from Terry Mills.]
Is this true?
If so, I stand corrected on the NT stuff.
In Breaking news: Poll Bludger has consumed itself in a fit of leadershit speculation and died at the scene. Police are keen to speak with former moderator and founder, William Bowe, last seen shredding bogus bludgertrack data and behaving suspiciously. A ninety year old gentlemen wearing a cape covered with capital letters is assisting with inquiries.
[William welcomes diversity of opinion]
Not sure that Rudd v Gillard v Rudd v Gillard v Rudd qualifies as diversity to be honest.
On an unrelated topic the Croweaters have given a masterclass over the last two weeks in how to throw away a Shield final berth.
Anyone want to add to the absurdity of the Tory Republicans/MSM predicting the demise of PMJG
15/05/2011 – Gillard is dead, politically dead – Peter Costello
06/06/2011 – Gillard gone by December – Andrew Bolt
01/09/2011 – Labor stalwart says Gillard ‘finished’ – Jeremy Thompson
06/09/2011 – JULIA, resign. Let Rudd resume rightful role – PHILLIP ADAMS
17/07/2011 – Gillard down for count – Phillip Coorey
20/02/2012 – Gillard delusional and in retreat – Dennnis Shanahan
21/02/2012 – Too late for Gillard to save herself – BY: NIKI SAVVA
23/02/2012 – Assassins reap what they sowed – Simon Benson
21/04/2012 – Gillard will be GORN by end of May, Hewson & Richo jointly on #Slynews
30/04/2012 – Credibility gone, PM should fall on her sword , Michelle Grattan
02/05/2012 – Julia’s going: it’s a matter of time – Dennis Shanahan
18/05/2012 – Despite the poll and budget uptick, Gillard and Labor are doomed – Richo
19/05/2012 – String of disasters mean the party’s over for Labor – Piers Akerman
26/05/2012 – A leadership change to Kevin Rudd is the last real option – PvO
28/05/2012 – Lame duck Labor likely to waddle on to term – Gerard Henderson
25/07/2012 – Labor’s choice is Rudd or oblivion – PAUL KELLY
12/06/2012 – Determined Gillard may be, but her leadership is looking terminal – Shanahan
14/08/2012 – Pride comes before a fall for Gillard Government – Derryn Hinch
23/08/2012 – Gillard in big trouble no matter what happens – Leo Shanahan
12/09/2012 – Just like Howard, Abbott has the numbers that really count – JANET ALBRECHTSEN
13/10/2012 – Misogyny tactic will backfire – PAUL KELLY
13/10/2012 – Gillard’s hypocrisy stripped bare – CHRIS KENNY
05/11/2012 – Hanging by a thread by Peter Hartcher
24/11/2012 – Knives are out for Gillard – Peter Hartcher
29/11/2012 – Ducking and diving, but PM’s goose is cooked – Piers Akerman
05/01/2013 – Rudd’s support for a challenge edging closer – Mark Kenny
15/02/2013 – An adrenaline charged Rudd increases pressure on Gillard – Michelle Grattan
18/02/2013 – Poor poll for Labor plays to Rudd’s ambition – Michelle Grattan
19/02/2013 – Beware knives of March – Mark Kenny
19/02/2013 – Gillard’s departure is a matter of timing – Peter Reith
19/02/2013 – Final nail in PM’s coffin – David Day
19/02/2013 – Something has to give – sooner or later – Lenore Taylor
19/02/2013 – Desperate caucus eyes leadership switch – BEN PACKHAM
19/02/2013 – PM Julia Gillard ‘gone’ if she struggles in next week’s Newspoll – Tory Shepherd
19/02/2013 – Labor’s critical question: time for a new leader? – The Age Editorial
19/02/2013 – Julia Gillard’s support base is softly slipping away – Simon Benson
19/02/2013 – Kevin Rudd’s odds on leading ALP in September election shorten to $2 – news.com.au
19/02/2013 – Labor in despair over dire poll – Phil Coorey
19/02/2013 – Dead woman walking – SMH
19/02/2013 – Final nail in PM’s coffin – David Day
19/02/2013 – Rudd’s just in storage, waiting for sun to shine – Tony Wright
20/02/2013 – Dear Julia, it’s time for a dignified exit speech – Alan Stokes
22/02/2013 – PM should go for party’s sake – GRAHAM RICHARDSON
23/02/2013 – Gillard may not recover this time – Katharine Murphy
23/02/2013 – Drumroll, then exit on a final cymbal crash – Tony Wright
23/02/2013 – Julia Gillard risks her legacy by not ceding to Kevin Rudd – PETER VAN ONSELEN
23/02/2013 – Labor feels guilty over Rudd: Turnbull – Malcolm Turnbull
23/02/2013 – Teams lining up early for a Coalition victory – Lenora Taylor
02/03/2013 – Hating Kevin, loving the saviour – Peter Hartcher
10/03/2013 – Deadline looms for Prime Minister Julia Gillard – Sam Maiden
11/03/2013 – Julia Gillard must resign as leader or Labor is doomed at the election – news.com.au
11/03/2013 – Clear message from the west is that Rudd is the only hope – Peter Hartcher
12/03/2013 – PM’s backers must move for the greater good, says Rudd camp – Mark Kenny, The Age
12/03/2013 – Fran Kelly & Peter Collins #newspoll will give PM Gillard one more week to survive
13/03/2013 – Demoralised Labor hangs on every poll – Peter Hartcher
15/03/2013 – Media bill threatens leadership – Mark Kenny SMH
The one person who that pathetic conglomeration of FW’s want, to have the spine to have a go, so they can at least give Abbott a minuscule chance of getting into the Lodge is everyones clown Kevvie. Sorry he doesn’t have the numbers by plenty.
Next question?
Martin John Ferguson.
You know it makes sense.
ZC @4879 – and for your next trick you are going to list all the times the PM and Cabinet Ministers promised delivery of a surplus this year.
Anyone want to post the video of the ALP Cabinet Minister (West Aussie I think) fronting the cameras outside Parliament on the night Gillard gutted JuanKRudd?
What was it he said?
The PM is a fighter Zachary and if only her judgement was as good as her strength.
@CC/4881
Do you think the promised delivery of surplus is more important than anything else in the country?
So very sad.
Nothing does a bullshitting context quite like PollBludger! 🙂
Confessions,
Yes he did. To be fair though every stobie pole between here and Kulgera knew somone was going to take over. And after John Elferink’s coup attempt, when the only vote he got was his own; and Dave Tollner being one of NT’s biggest wankers, it made sense. But right he was. He would know more about Central Australian politics than he would about Canberra though.
My dear crank you dwell on the past, we live in the now. I have never entered into the stupidity of taps on the shoulder here, when it is brought up, you don’t defend it you remind me of a Rudd appearance being gutted5 years ago. Oh such a memory you have. means nothing within todays rubbish of tapping shoulders but please dwell its good for the soul
Z @4884 – it was very important and the PM and ALP surely thought it was given how often and how long they promised it for – and the fact they now have decided to let it go shows that politics of winning is more important to them than the long run economic health of the nation – reversion to mean is the statistical term for the ALP inability to reduce debt or delvier surpluses.
ZC @4887 – WTF????????
Do you mean Daryl Melham, CC?
The odds with the bookies for Labor leader have not budged an iota since the Bob Gosford item. Not conclusive evidence he’s wrong but if he is correct, the information is being very tightly contained, which seems surprising. If the PM has had the tap on the shoulder, surely all her staff would know, and there would be a ripple effect.. Doesn’t stand to reason that several hours on, this nation transforming information is still possessed only by Mr Gosford. Still, you never know.
Crank have another tipple you are in your element, I’m enjoying trying to decipher your interesting wordology, Do you come here often?
Deficit increased by $1 billion per week in January – great work Swanny and Penny.
CC @ 4888
Are you saying that making further budget cuts in order to guarantee a surplus would be better for the “long run economic health of the nation”?
William, I can’t recall who it was but someone was fronted walking into Parliament right before Gillard pullled the trigger and flatout denied anything was happening. I think it was the WA Senator who just snatched his rent.
A surplus didn’t make my life any better under Howard and although delivering a surplus under this government might have been a nice internet partisan gloating tool it wouldn’t make my life any better now.
Living in an internationally envied economy does, however, make my life a hell of a lot easier. The same part of Australia’s voting public sucked into the surplus fetish will mostly be paying off their current credit card debts a decade from now so I care little for their opinion.
mimhoff @4894 – yep, cut taxes and cut spending even harder, and sell a few assets starting with non-rural portion of the AlpBC.
I do believe you’re referring to Daryl Melham, a lower house MP from Sydney. You can find it various places here with a bit of effort.
aw @4896 – an interesting observation at odds with the fact that since the GFC Aussies have become net savers, significantly reducing private debt ratios.
Cranky one, do you actually live in 2013? I note going through your contributions they are in the main history!!
What has held you back dear boy?