Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A slightly improving trend to Labor in federal polling over the past week is maintained by a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll.

Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).

UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.

UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,933 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. that’ll be the narrowing….cant wait for

    …”the opposition still has an election winning lead” codicil on every news report

    crossover post

  2. Holy crap. What the hell do you figure caused that bounce?

    Everything about that screams “rogue poll” to me.

  4. Psephos

    [ I just explained why this poll is important. Like it or not, we live in an era where politics is driven by short-term reactions to polls. Ask Ted Baillieu.]

    Are you saying Caucus is as psephologically ignorant as the general population?

  10. Mr Bowe

    Do I get a mention for the early news ?

    [Rummel
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 8:56 pm | PERMALINK
    52/48 libs

    Followed by BB back tracking on his new Rudd stance.]

  11. As I have been saying all week, Ted Baileu debacle, CamNewman on the nose and the PM kicking goals in Western Sydney.

    And people getting pissed off with the OldMedia regime change antics.

  12. (Everything about that screams “rogue poll” to me)

    More like Tony Abbott on 60 minutes…they’ve finally seen him…its beena while

  13. Maybe the western sydney sojourn worked afterall?

    Here’s a tip to the PM. Spend a week in WA next. In the aspirational northern suburbs.

    Then a week in Tassie and then a week in Qld.

    People like guts, get in there girl!

  14. Dear @BreakfastNews @ABCNews24 @abc730 @abcnews @ABCNewsRadio Dont forget the blazing headline: PPM: Gillard 42 (+6) Abbott 38 (-2)

  18. Diogenes @ 4

    Unfortunately, yes. As a society, we seem to be focused on such inane things.

    I really don’t have any idea why Ted Baillieu was dropped. He should have squeaked in as most first term governments do.

    He had a year to go and a year is plenty of time in politics.

  19. Now who said Labor had no chance 6 months out from the election?

    Labor still in there competitive no matter what is thrown at us!

  23. swamprat
    Who is Arrnea Stormbringer?

    A Norse goddess from Menzies House?

    Me? Conservative? Perish the thought.

    Amusing conjecture though.

  25. I reckon 457s was part of the shift. No doubt it hit the spot with lots of tradies and IT professionals. Struck by lots of posts on this on social media in recent days.

  26. Oh god – it had to happen. Explanation = a rogue poll!

    I bet heaps we will hear the ABC come in with the “within the 3% margin for error” which it opts in and out of when it wants to massage a poll number.

  27. yes rummel and that is good for Labor as the instability of changing leaders again would finish them off.

    be careful what you wish for

  28. I have been saying the last few polls were a bit low for Labor (you can check my twitter SirBobalot). There was a string of bad news and it was unsurprising that their polling dipped.

    What was surprising was how much noise was made about them.

  30. LoL Really such a great Newspoll for Labor? As though anybody would believe it is 52/48.

    However as I suggested before a result like this would be the very worst thing for Labor, as it puts things on freeze and allows some to ignore what is coming for a little bit longer.

    The faction mob will no doubt grab it. But truthfully they all know the current situation is pretty close to 55/45. But that isn’t their concern, their concern is finding every trace they can to protect their power going into an election.

    Enjoy your folly a bit longer, it wont last very long at all.

  31. Bobalot

    I think there is great merit to the argument that relentless polling doesn’t create good government. Everything is based on the short-term and people start wetting themselves when there is any adversity.

  33. Now this is funny:

    “Laura Tingle retweeted
    4m
    Russell Mahoney @russellmahoney
    @jonkudelka I think the latest Newspoll is primarily the result of state factors.”

  35. Tricot the OM will spin this furiously. But the reality is that it stops their Gillard is finished meme in its tracks. And it settles a nervous backbench

  37. And do my eyes deceive me or is the 44% for the conservatives what they achieved in the 2010 election?

    If so, in effect, they have not moved one jot and their leader has slipped behind – again.

  38. rummel@24

    Good, this will lock Gillard in over the next two weeks and till the next election.

    Yes, I think it just might. But I’m still going to wait till the end of the week before I take too much for granted.

  39. [Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 42 (+6) Abbott 38 (-2)

    plus substantial shift back to Labor in PV & 2PP]

    Oh dear.

    🙂

    I don’t normally pay much attention to individual polls, the trend is what matters. But this one is more important than most because of internal Labor politics.

  41. shut up TP. Just shut up. For once.

    If you were truly a Labor man, you would be happy with a poll improvement, regardless of the leader.

    go post on Menzies House instead

  42. Bobalot

    [I really don’t have any idea why Ted Baillieu was dropped. He should have squeaked in as most first term governments do.]

    I know nothing about Vic politics but Compact Crank an extreme right-winger on here always referred to Ted as “Red Ted”.

    I assume that is because he could spell, who knows it probably explains his demise.

  43. 52:48? I’ll take it.

    No wonder Abbott was starting to talk about his deep faith, his firmly held values, and how they have nothing to do with what he actually does in politics. AT ALL.

    Tomorrow we will have wall-to-wall discussion in the MSM about a Hockey/Turnbull challenge to Abbott.

    You know it makes sense.

  47. Can’t have it both ways TP. Either you accept all the polls or none.

    I do not question the integrity of the polls, why should you?

    You are a real Labor supporter aren’t you? A real Job’s Comforter – a real misery guts.

  50. Arrnea Stormbringer

    sorry.

    But Menzies House is extremist not “Conservative”.

    The most conservative Party in Australia is the ALP. The LIbs are hung-ho whatever it takes winner takes all capitalists. Certainly NOT conservative.

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