Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).
UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.
UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.
Bobalot
I think Ballieu was dropped because Shaw threatened to create merry hell for the government if they didn’t replace him with someone who had more flexible views on ethical matters.
Ever watched a souffle collapsing. You are watching it now.
[Psephos
Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
Are you saying Caucus is as psephologically ignorant as the general population?
Sadly yes.
Incidentally, this should be an object lesson for those who keep trying to tell us that Newspoll is rigged. A bad Newspoll tonight would have been extremely dangerous for Gillard. If ever it suited News Ltd to produce a bad Newspoll, tonight would have been the time.]
You are discounting the possibility that News Ltd is protecting Gillard because they want her to remain as PM.
:devil: See how my mind works? :devil:
[I think there is great merit to the argument that relentless polling doesn’t create good government. Everything is based on the short-term and people start wetting themselves when there is any adversity.]
Absolutely. The frequent polls we have, combined with he circular press gallery ‘analysis’ attached to them has done nothing for our democracy or our national discourse, much less act as any kind of meaningful information for voters.
@Andrew/49
Ah ok.
Sure it’s one poll.
But it halts the “narrative” dead in it’s tracks.
Now the dimwits in the msm might start to analyse the opposition a little more and their many policy follies.
Hopefully Neilsen, when it’s due, will maintain this trend otherwise the groupthinkers will shift back to the other side of the Titanic.
So BB
Should Labor still hand over a dove to the narcissist?
Emmerson doing well against the Lateline agenda demolishing media narrative.
Wouldn’t surprise if Victoria accounts for a significant part of the shift.
Emmo looks like John Boehner with that tan.
From what I recall it is common for a government to be behind this far out from an election. Part of the pick-up in Labor support could be be due to the fact that, as Andrew says, Tony has been flushed out from his hiding place over the past week. The problem for Tony is that in the last 4 weeks before the poll Tony can’t afford to go invisible. In Tony’s case visibility and opening his mouth means loss of votes. Gillard will win.
Diogenes@51
Because Rupert told Tony Abbott to go to Melbourne and get rid of the leftist bastard. Get it?
Mod Lib
That came to my mind.
There is no doubt that the Libs and their Murdoch Masters would be horrified if ALP did something that they cannot write off and ignore.
There is no doubt that they want t he current PM to stay Labor leader.
It’s funny, the media all panned the trip to Western Sydney as a disaster and collectively whined about 457 visas, but it appears they didn’t catch the public mood.
Menzies House is the domain of economic “rationalism” and social conservatism – neither of which appeal to me.
I’m not sure how you can claim the ALP is more conservative than the Liberal Party – sure, it’s more conservative than it probably ought to be, but it doesn’t outrank the economic rationalism and rigid social conservatism that currently rules the Liberal Party while pretending to be populism.
Great news Julia Gillard is safe for a while longer. Obviously the Western Australian election was a rogue and voters abhorred the state Labor Leadership. Galaxy and Essential must be rogue too the mighty Newspoll is always right.
Based on one poll that appears rogue, Gillard WILL win.
No worries.
@guytaur/58
Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@AndoJC Lateline gave me the opportunity to discuss policy. Many thanks.
He just tweeted that lol.
Kind of sad to see some desperate to grab hold of anything and not admit that a sudden movement in the polls without reason is either or rogue or at the extreme edge of MOE. A bit of air freshener over the pit.
But desperate you are, even with the long series of polls of recent times, the safe seats of Western Sydney in dire straights….but miracle upon miracle … you will believe it because you need to, because you have nothing else. The toy soldiers will know it is BS but the point for them is a way/reason to block Rudd from the factions.
Andrew:
[zoidlord the polling would have been completed before the 60 minutes free advertisement]
Yet lots of 60 minutes promos were aired with Abbott looking shifty (which admittedly is almost a natural look for him).
Because Gillard is much more naturally likeable than Abbott it takes a lot more negative reinforcement to diminish her in the eyes of the public than it does with Abbott.
[Should Labor still hand over a dove to the narcissist?]
Without doubt.
I am being pragmatic here. If the two can find a way to work together, with Rudd given another chance to prove himself as a team player, I can’t see why not.
IT would be the end of the Liberals for 100 years.
Got it in one Laura…
@latingle: Now here is an uncomfortable question…is this a whacky Newspoll or cd it just be 457 issue cutting through, whether or not media likes it
fess
The voters can probably tell you more about the polls than they can about policies.
stanny:
I was wondering whether to remind everyone of the latest Galaxy, Essential, Morgan, JWS and Reachtel polls, but decided against it.
Let the poor sods have a good fortnight for a change….its a long hard road to September, there have to be a few breaks to sit down, open the flask and steel oneself for the mountain climb one can see in front of one’s eyes. Hehe 😉
Yep the more Abbott is on air with his umms and ahhs, his “product” hair and his stepford family; the better for the Govt.
This long campaign is really smoking them out, perhaps McTernan is the genius he thinks he is.
Incidentally, Joe Hockey looks a lot like Eddie Obeid these days.
stanny@66
Boot. Foot. Other.
Does this mean that PB will be free of incessant Ruddstoration crap for a while?
Surely the OM didnt get it wrong again Bobalot?
This is a bad poll for Labor. Labor still in a losing position. It’s another close but not close enough poll. It would have been better for the government if it had a primary of 30%. At least then the chance of Gillard being rolled would be better.
William. Was your comment at end of post (previous thread) addressed to me?
1132 William Bowe
Well well, I was only talking to him yesterday.. but didn’t talk politics though…which you might think odd.
He must have caught Rudd germs off you.
“@Nude_Yoga_Freak: @latingle i blame it on the crisis at the Sharkies, people are simply distracted by more important issues ….”
That was impressive.
[the mighty Newspoll is always right.]
Pretty much, yes.
Henry
[Now the dimwits in the msm might start to analyse the opposition a little more and their many policy follies.]
How many times have I seen ALP supporters write similar things.
Why in this age of multi-media are you such mendicants of the corrupt OM?
Do you ever ask yourself as to what your glorious party leaders are doing to communicate differently?
It all seems that no one in the ALP has developed a communication plan to bypass the OM.
Why is that?
Why is the ALP a collection of victims?
gloryconsequence
[Based on one poll that appears rogue]
You missed essential? +2 PV
Diog
We all know that over polling is not healthy but it is a fact of life.
The last Newspoll was death and destruction for Labor – no worries according to the long list of commentators.
Bernard Keane has stuck the boots in on Crikey – Gillard down further or wtte.
It’s alright being prissy and correct about how polls might be used as opposed to how they are used, and for the conservatives in the media, it is to help destroy the current government
I would suggest this poll might brighten a few lives and call into question yet again, the so called experts take on political events.
It must be a rogue poll.
So weird that it favours Labor.
@Stany, @Mod Lib, @Silky
Didn’t the poll upset you guys tonight…
[SirLeslieHammondQC*
Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 11:12 pm | PERMALINK
Does this mean that PB will be free of incessant Ruddstoration crap for a while?]
Only Ruddstoration will free you of Ruddstoration
Diogenes @ 51
I think giving into Shaw will play out even worse in the electorate.
TP is a Gillard Hater. It was obvious when he bizarrely claimed Ted Baillieu’s demise would be bad for Labor. Watching him trying to justify that claim was hilarious to watch.
As Paul Bongiorno tweeted, Essential picked up a trend and Newspoll amplified it. Here’s a hint Tony – go back into hiding.
No CW, it was directed at TP, who left the comment I was quoting at the start there.
William, my 80. Please address.
SirLeslieHammondQC*@77
Nyet.
Bobalot@64
Yes – I simply can’t understand it. They’re normally so on top of current trends! Which is of course why people still flock to buy their products.
It’s a mystery …
It’s not just one poll as Essential showed a similar recovery in Labor’s primary vote which is the important statistic. The 2PP must have been close to 53/47 but any recovery for Labor is a good recovery.
OOOOh. Sorry. William.
My explanation FWIW – consistent with what I’ve been saying for a while – a portion of the Liberal vote is only very loosely attached; driven there because of negativity towards Labor than by any interest whatsoever in what the Libs under Abbott have to offer.
These are the same people who claim that they would vote Labor if Rudd came back as leader. They are far from certain what they are going to do on Election Day. They certainly are not, and have never been, “waiting for Gillard with baseball bats”.
What a tired and ugly metaphor! But let’s stretch it a bit further and suggest that, on a bad day and with a baseball bat to hand, they might turn on the ALP. But then again they might go for Abbott.
The Libs have had a bad fortnight. Hockey and Abbott are demonstrably not singing frkm the sane hymn sheet. Baillieu’s resignation, in one fell swoop, pulled the rug out from under the Liberals’ holier-than-thou stance on party discipline. And Abbott and co were silly enough to try to
argue the toss with the journos that Rudd was a different and unique case, rather than simply say something like “politics is a tough game” and move on.
Final observation: in recent weeks the weather in most places has been persistently and unseasonably hot. This week, even Tony Abbott has felt he had to say something about the issue. I reckon it’s showing up in focus groups. And so it should: the emerging trends are quite alarming. Climate change could be the sleeper issue for the election. Perhaps reports of the Greens’ demise under Christine are premature.
Just to clarify, I’m no lover of the Greens, especially at the nationsl level (the Tassie Greens are ok AFAIC).
SirLeslieHammondQC*@77
Only until bemused regains consciousness.
stanny@66
Or it could be that state voters voted on state issues in a state election?
I know it’s radical…