Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A slightly improving trend to Labor in federal polling over the past week is maintained by a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll.

Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).

UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.

UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,933 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Gillard is portrayed as an athiest “Joan-of-Arc” victim.

    Rudd is a factional victim.

    The ALP is a Murdoch victim.

    So many ALP members come across as whinging hapless victims. Why is this?

  2. Seems like it’s taken a Gillard appointee, Brendan O’Connor, to score some wins in the migration debate. A long time since the ALP has won the arguments in this space.

  3. Oppositions don’t win elections – Governments lose them.

    Election campaigns have marginal effect – so what happens over the next few months is what is important.

    PM’s going to have a spring in her step – deservedly.

    Lots of head scratching from the Coalition.

  4. Piffle swamprat.
    Like it or not polls give the MSM their narrative.
    If you hadn’t noticed the msm, through commercial tv and papers still dominates the majority thinking.
    This poll, as stupid as it all is, pierces the current group think.

  5. [Final observation: in recent weeks the weather in most places has been persistently and unseasonably hot. This week, even Tony Abbott has felt he had to say something about the issue. I reckon it’s showing up in focus groups.]

    I don’t think that is all the unfavourable stuff for Abbott Libs that is showing up in focus groups either.

  6. Davidwh

    Good that you are cheered.

    It seemed that you had fallen into glum acceptance of a win for your favoured party. Despite your principles and ethos.

  7. Small and Nifty Crank

    Oppositions don’t win elections – Governments lose them.

    [Election campaigns have marginal effect – so what happens over the next few months is what is important.

    PM’s going to have a spring in her step – deservedly.

    Lots of head scratching from the Coalition.]

    What a joke.

  8. thomas

    thinks we read what he says

    well he most likely reads nothing i say


    but all that wasted typing tp

    and its never read

  9. If the shift in this poll is legit, I feel the events in Victoria had an influence. Mainly in Victoria but it wouldn’t surprise me if a little of it was outside Victoria too. Perhaps reminding people in SA the nature of the Libs or people in NSW that the Libs are just as capable of running through leaders as Labor.

    Obviously, it’s trends that count, not individual polls, so don’t look too much into it.

  10. @Zoidlord

    Yes the poll did upset me. I don’t believe Labor can win with Julia Gillard. Everyone seems to be excited about a poll that puts Labor squarely in a LOSING position. I don’t want Tony Abbott as my PM necessarily (see what I did there?), but he will beat Julia Gillard. Labor has had one poll that tied with the Coalition since the announcement of the Carbon Tax. All the rest are bad news. Why would anyone think this is a good poll. I don’t get it.

  11. stanny

    I don’t know why you are going on about the WA poll.

    For days those of us in the West have said ad nauseum that the Federal factor was one of but many factors.

    The Liberals were always going to win and this was the case for at least the last 12 months. The polls were 57-43 for ages, went to 55-45 and then blew out again.

    A solid first term government was given another go.

    The net loss of vote, while translated into seat loss was painful, but most of the loss did not come from Labor. Despite some others here trying to downplay this, the loss of Labor vote is at about 2.3%

    The Gillard factor was a powerful focus by the conservative media.

    In fact, Skynews opened with this theme as soon as the WA booths were closed.

    I wish the PM had come over and this was a mistake that she did not.

  12. Rossmore: yes, 457s too, to be sure. Made the Libs look like hypocrites after Morrison’s vile comments of the week before.

  13. Assuming a sample size of about 2,000, the margin of error is about 2.2%, assuming that the poll is scientific / unbiased. The 52-48 2PP finding means that the actual support among the electorate has about a 95% probability of being in the range 50-50 to 54-46 (two significant figures being enough given the degree of accuracy). If the poll size is about 1,000 the margin of error is about 3.2%, so the reality is likely to be somewhere between 49-51 and 55-45.

    So it does look like a trend away from the 56-44 and 55-45 results we’ve seen recently, but we need to see more polls to confirm the trend. It could be one of the 5% of ‘rogue’ polls after all. Comforting to ALP supporters all the same, after two months of bad news.

  14. @GeorgeBludger: The polls won’t make any difference to PM. The only person dependent on them is Abbott. PM naming election date has locked him in & his 38%

  15. Player One @ 95.

    I honestly believe it only had a small positive effect, although the 457 visa thing did cut through. Lots of people have always been suspicious of it. But the media had their narrative to stick to and that was it.

    I think the last few weeks were tough for the government and the polls were bound to recover once people got past it.

    I think the real 2PP figure is about 47-53, but that’s not too bad out from an election. I believe John Howard went into 2004 with that against Latham and won a senate majority.

  16. [It all seems that no one in the ALP has developed a communication plan to bypass the OM.

    Why is that?]

    But they do. Labor now has a huge online and social media presence, which now reaches hundreds of thousands of people and is growing all the time. The PM can now communicate directly with a large number of people who are opinion leaders in their own communities and workplaces, without having her message filtered through a hostile media. That’s the way to do it, not to try and set up a Labor newspaper or Labor TV.

  17. It aint that hard Silky. 52-48 is close to line ball.
    But yes it’s one poll.
    With 6 months to the election the govt are still in the game.
    If you are a true labor voter you will accept that and work to ensure we stay in the game.
    Rudd aint coming back so get with the program.

  18. Oh for fark’s sake, can’t newspoll get their act together? First it’s up, then it’s down, then it’s up. Just when all those poor, sodding journalists think they’ve sussed it out and are confidently writing articles linking or predicting this or that event to or from the latest polls, it defies their expectations yet again! At this rate they’re going to be made to look incompetent through no fault of their own!

  19. @Silky/@CC

    There is plenty of state issues that effect polls in certain states.

    There is also alot of things at Federal level that can effect things…

    There are two polls that show towards Labor, and a number of state ones (VIC/QLD in particular).

    It could also mean that Tony Abbott’s Mini Campaign is also wearing off.

    And there are alot of things that people already suggested as well.

  20. silky

    gosh another troll

    i have not see bemused or spurr or fenney

    i bet they are just reading,

    they alwasy dash out for bad polls

    some say its ony one poll\\

    but it puts a spring our feet, and a glow in our hearts

    that perhpas some are seeing the real abbott
    and even
    may begin to understand policy

  21. Crikey when it comes to refugees and 457’s I’m basically out of step with many Aussies. I’m not all that happy that an attack on 457 workers could shift 300,000 odd voters if that is what has in fact caused the shift. I prefer to believe it was due to other factors but I am a touch naive.

  22. “@jasondhorowitz: In final pre-conclave meeting, after 161 speeches, cardinals summed up to one another what they are looking for in a pope.”

  23. I don’t think it’s really a “rogue” – what I think it is is within the margin of error. I reckon the actual 2PP is around 54/46 and has been for ages. We seem to hit a couple of points either side of it but never really drift away too far.

  24. “@ATimmermanis: @brycewg BREAKING: Federal Labor closer to it’s next win than the Australian Cricket Team. #Newspoll #auspol”

  25. david
    the visa are NOT cancelled they are just made harder

    for example we dont have a lot of house building at the moment here any way

    so why would you grant a work visa to a builder

    commonsence i would think
    thats just one example there are many

  26. Well, there you go, Newspoll bouncing around. Still, i agree that this was an important one. Ruddstoration a dead parrot for now.

  27. Silky38,

    You’re either uninformed or lying. The sequence was 50-46-50-49-49-49-46-51. That’s two 50-50s since the “carbon tax announcement, you were out by 100%. 49-51 is well within that as well, and there were quite a few of those.

  28. Latham has made some stupid remarks going by this.

    “@Scruffbucket: #pmlive @PMOnAir If you think anything of the pple suffering from depression you’d kick that lowlife scum Latham off never to return again”

  29. Good on ya My Say, a true believer….

    “i have not see bemused or spurr or fenney

    i bet they are just reading,

    they alwasy dash out for bad polls”

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