Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A slightly improving trend to Labor in federal polling over the past week is maintained by a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll.

Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).

UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.

UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,933 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 99
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  1. Silky38
    [Is having a different opinion the definition of being a Troll around here?]

    You trying to start something…? 😀

  5. imacca @ 198

    I agree. It’s been a tough few weeks for the government and that showed in the polling. There was bound to be a recovery.

    I still think the LNP will win in September but not in a landslide. It will be interesting to watch how they deal with a hostile senate.

  6. Seems to me that all you can “read” from Newspoll’s highly volatile results in recent times is that their polling approach is in a fair measure of strife. If it isn’t being deliberately manipulated ( and bear in mind their results clearly feed back heavily into the political realm), then they are showing signs of very significant issues in
    the consistency of their sampling process.

  8. Player One:

    If you happen to be on the receiving end of input I’m assuming you’ll post it here… 🙂

    But from my own amateur assessment the Rudd Cult sought to make hay with the WA election result, but have come a cropper with tonight’s Newspoll. Esp after the PM has had a week in suburban Sydney and all the attention that brought.

    Interested to know where Rudd and his spear carriers go from here, this week.

  9. Rossmore and Steve 777

    I agree, it is totally appropriate that 457 visas be monitored closely.

    They are the obvious gateway for companies to import slave labour.

    It is pathetic that some say that enforcing laws to protect local workers is racist

  11. 161
    imacca
    [Its quite possible that the disconnect between truth and bollocks re the NBN is becoming apparent as well.]

    The NBN is Labor’s biggest winner, policy wise, (along with general economic management). Should be centre stage during the campaign.

    Abbott’s trashing of that policy is one of the most reckless and foolish things he has ever done, and it will haunt him big time, even if he wins.

  13. [Smoke these lightweights out and engage them in policy discussion. They really are exposed under the spotlight.]

    For the leaders debates in the 2013 campaign i would like to see:

    QANDA format, but not with Tony Jones as moderator.

    Audience vetted so that there are 40%/40%/10% ALP/Lib/Greens.

    A live Worm.

    The leaders to be told the topics that will come up (from the questions submitted) beforehand, but in very general terms only.

    Of course, this format that i would consider scrupulously fair would leave Abbott at serious disadvantage as he is a blithering nong subject to shuddering brainlock unless he gets to script everything and has had Peta approve it beforehand. Whereas Gillard can think and speak on her feet and is pretty well across most policy topics.

  14. Player One@99

    SirLeslieHammondQC*@77

    Does this mean that PB will be free of incessant Ruddstoration crap for a while?

    Only until bemused regains consciousness.

    Quite conscious Player One. Just been doing other stuff.

    I also heard on ABC Radio that the Newspoll gives Labor a PV of 44% with Rudd as leader.

    Plenty of food for thought in that for Caucus.

  16. Henry. Davidwh is a good bloke.

    A sensible liberal, unlike the others on this site.
    Not given to gloating like so many of them.

    Agree. For sure.

    My Mod Lib is similar. Not the Mod Lib of this site.

    My Mod Lib is given to listening, consideration and all the sensibilities one would expect of any person who lives ethically in this world.

  17. confessions@208

    Player One:

    If you happen to be on the receiving end of input I’m assuming you’ll post it here…

    But from my own amateur assessment the Rudd Cult sought to make hay with the WA election result, but have come a cropper with tonight’s Newspoll. Esp after the PM has had a week in suburban Sydney and all the attention that brought.

    Interested to know where Rudd and his spear carriers go from here, this week.

    You will be the second to know … 🙂 But I think you may be right. They were not expecting such a strong bounce in the PPM – and as long as Gillard is strong on that, she is virtually unassailable.

    But I don’t expect to hear any more until after this week – I only know my “sauce” in a social capacity, and will not be seeing them again this week.

    For the rest of this week I will just watch with interest. I wasn’t very worried about it before, but today I am worried much less.

  19. DN I’m pretty well ignoring the noise and don’t expect I will change from the course I have personally committed to. It would take something of real significance to change my mind. Certainly not disagreements over 457’s.

  21. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 36 (+3) Disapprove 55 (0) #auspol
    Expand
    47 secs GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Gillard: Approve 32 (+2) Disapprove 57 (-1) #auspol

  26. 141
    Player One
    [Two things are obvious from this poll:

    1. Gillard needs to get out more.

    2. Abbott needs to get out less.]

    🙂

  27. [The modern liberal party is not conservative,…

    It is a radical marketeer party.]

    Old style conservatives would have regarded talking down the economy for political gain as tantamount to being a traitor.

  28. bemused@214
    [ I also heard on ABC Radio that the Newspoll gives Labor a PV of 44% with Rudd as leader.

    Plenty of food for thought in that for Caucus. ]

    No, I don’t think so. Caucus hates Rudd (and whether you agree or think this is fair is irrelevant). Caucus not only has to be convinced Rudd would win (and using some poll easily “gamed” by coalition voters is not good enough) – they also have to be convinced that Gillard would lose – and I think that is where the plotters have lost out today.

    Six months out, and against a fool like Abbott, a Gillard victory from a position of 52-48 and with a strong PPM is looking at least plausible.

  30. Crikey a change of LOTO would probably do it depending on who the new LOTO was. Turnbull very likely. Hockey perhaps. Morrison not likely. Can’t really think of anyone else likey to get the job if they replace Abbott.

  31. markjs@218

    Player One ….

    All the bullshit about a challenge you’ve been spouting this past week…

    I’m waiting till the end of the week before I concede anything 🙂

  34. Player One and this nonsense over ‘if Rudd were leader’ voting intention … A complete hypothetical open to mischief. ALP voters have made their intention crystal clear – they prefer the current PM over the alternatives. No doubt ALP MPs are reflecting on that tonight.

  35. [I wonder if Samantha Maiden still stands by this piece from less than 24 hrs ago?]

    Sounds like something Finns needs to add to his collection…

  38. Another incomprehensible poll.

    There is no way in the world that the voters who put,albeit just, Labor in, 2010, have turned so heavily against their own interests.

  40. Rossmore@234

    Player One and this nonsense over ‘if Rudd were leader’ voting intention … A complete hypothetical open to mischief. ALP voters have made their intention crystal clear – they prefer the current PM over the alternatives. No doubt ALP MPs are reflecting on that tonight.

    Yes, I hope so too!

  41. Bobalot@205

    imacca @ 198

    I agree. It’s been a tough few weeks for the government and that showed in the polling. There was bound to be a recovery.

    I still think the LNP will win in September but not in a landslide. It will be interesting to watch how they deal with a hostile senate.

    Will have to agree to disagree on who will win in Spet Bob. 🙂

    Interesting though that the Fiberal strategy seems to rely on winning BIG in 2013. If they dont, and they cant realistically do a DD election in their first term they may not be able to deliver on what they have promised to date

  43. I think that instantaneous reactions to this ‘up’ are to be taken just as seriously as instantaneous reactions to any single ‘down’. For example, if Ruddstoration really is on, one poll shouldn’t be taken as relief from it ;).

  44. The best thing about tonight’s QandA was that there was actually expert commentary available, from one of the authors of the Gonski report for example. Yes even the guy from ACU.

  45. I am NOT a Rudd supperter anymore than i am Gillard supporter, but blind freedy must know e current Government is incapable of selling anything.

    I know loyalists will say that there is a “wonder weapon”.

    I do not believe.

    The ALP should ask itself why it has prostituted itself to new age capitalism.

    Maybe its time is over and lije all noble ancient beasts it should retire gracefully from the stage.

    Its heritage could be what it does in these last 6 months.

  50. davidwh@197

    Crikey I don’t mind bemused but I am not him. I don’t have the nature to get as angry as bemused does on occasions.

    WOT…me get angry??? 😆
    Comrade, you don’t know me well enough. 😀

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