GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Shows on
I’m thinking long term.
He’s screwed regardless of what’s going on at the present moment.
There’s a small bit of room to build on a rate cut next week, get past July 1 and then relentlessly take the sword out to Abbott. I’m not optimistic, but it’s a small crack of light that’s there
[And probably control of the Senate.]
Probably? At least you aren’t certain.
Jenauthor ‘The PM has not buckled.’ A sign of a natural leader. Dignity under pressure. That meme is growing by the day. The steel lady.
Well, I read the D’Ath gossip as her switching sides, hence my “wtf”. Leadercrap didn’t cross my mind 😀
The tweet came from a Libshill so it needs to be placed in that context. It threw me a bit because it came out of the blue.
TLM
Good try. However pensioner payments did not start until today. So their impact still to come.
ha ha
paine and evan arrive together hand in hand with their anti Gillard lines already scripted.
Blair at Levenson. ‘leaking to the press is the lowest form of politics.’
William can correct me about this, but I recall Howard winning the 1996 election with a 2PP figure of 54%, and that translated into a 50 odd seat majority for the Coalition.
So to read this thread tonight, and witness Labor supporters cock-a-hoop about their party potentially losing by a similar margin in 2013 is something I find mystifying.
The real acid test for Gillard is after July 1, when the first electricity bills for that quarter of the year arrive in mail boxes – if people feel they haven’t been adequately compensated, Labor will be plummeting back into the low 40s 2PP.
[Rita Panahi @RitaPanahi]
Fiz et all
this tweeter is a right wing troll making up shit about Yvonne D’ath
I refer to my previous comments tonight about Newspoll. It’s just one poll and often favors Labour over the others after Essential went the other way today.
It is hardly the Murdoch conspiracy peddled earlier this evening is it now?
In reality when you combine all the polls thereby reducing the margin of error you get around 55 or 56 to 45 or 44 with a much lower MOE.
Abbott would have benefited greatly last week if he had just shut his mouth and Pyne they are too aggressive all around . Quite frankly a large majority of people loath this government but cannot stomach the over the top aggression of some of the opposition attack dogs.
Thank heavens this will stop any moves on Gillard or a while.
If anyone is interested, the Stable Population Party is holding a networking meet up in Sydney this Sunday (03 June). Meet the current candidates for the next federal election.
Platform:
– Balanced migration: annual permanent immigration would be roughly equivalent to annual permanent emigration. Equal to roughly 80,000.
– Pro current 13,750 refugee intake quota
– Reject any selection of immigrants based on race or religion.
– Limit baby bonus and parental leave each woman’s first two kids
– Tie foreign aid wherever possible to the improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, with a particular focus on female rights and education, and on opportunities for women and couples to access reproductive health and voluntary family planning services to help prevent unwanted pregnancies.
12pm on Sunday 3 June @ Edinburgh Castle Hotel, Sydney (L1, Lounge Bar):
http://www.edinburghcastlehotel.com.au
Also events coming up in QLD, VIC, WA and ACT.
I’d love to see gender breakdown on these numbers. I think we would see a significant falling away of the female vote.
Purely anecdotal, but the comment from Thomson about having Channel 7 reporters outside his bathroom window whilst his pregnant wife showered certainly had an impact on a lot of women where I work, most of whom are very rarely interested in talking politics in the lunch room. Most of them admitted to tearing up a bit when they saw that comment on the 6pm news. The bullying tactics by Abbott and Pyne afterwards has not sat well with them either. I think those two men have ticked off a lot of women around the country.
Gallup poll for November 1975.
Variable p1q5b : MR FRASER AS OPPOSITION LEADER
Values Categories N
0 DK/NS 115
5.6%
1 APPROVE 717
34.9%
2 DISAPPROVE 1214
59.0%
3 PART APPROVE/PART DISAPPROVE 11
0.5%
Variable p1q1a : WOMEN AT HOME WITH CHILDREN MORE SATISFIED
Values Categories N
0 DK/NS 261
12.7%
1 MORE SATISFIED 1323
64.3%
2 LESS SATISFIED 438
21.3%
3 ABOUT THE SAME 35
1.7%
Variable p1q2a7 : SEX APPEAL: ADMIRE IN MAN
Values Categories N
0 NOT SELECTED 1940
94.3%
1 SELECTED 117
5.7%
Thomas Paine
[But the poison is still in the system, she sits at the top and in the end will kill the host.]
That is a very concerning statement. Do you think it an appropriate analogy?
I am not sure if there has been a time when both leaders have been so despised. Perhaps Keating and Hewson?
And it could be a sympathy vote for Thomson too.
The Liberals, if they had any sense, would ditch Abbott for Turnball, and then they’d win the next election by miles.
[Shows On: D’ath voted for Gillard in late February – the only Labor lower house MP who voted for Rudd was Rudd himself.]
WTF? Bowen, McClelland, M. Ferguson, Albanese aren’t in the House of Reps?
[Probably? At least you aren’t certain.]
Don’t be a total bamford, as if anyone can be confident about the outcome of the senate vote.
So Abbott has a lower approval rating and a higher disapproval rating than Fraser AND most people refuse to answer whther sex appeal is to be admired in a man.
Geez we are seriously missing out on the good polling
TLM
[The Liberals, if they had any sense, would ditch Abbott for Turnball, and then they’d win the next election by miles.]
Yes but Turnbull does not represent the modern “Liberal” party. he is vaguely liberal….. They will never stomach him. He is not American religious fanatic enough….
[William can correct me about this, but I recall Howard winning the 1996 election with a 2PP figure of 54%, and that translated into a 50 odd seat majority for the Coalition.
So to read this thread tonight, and witness Labor supporters cock-a-hoop about their party potentially losing by a similar margin in 2013 is something I find mystifying.]
No, Howard got 53.63% in 1996. The long term trend over the last year or so is at least 54% for the Coalition, and probably nudging closer to 55%.
So on these numbers Labor is headed for a 1975 style loss.
[The Liberals, if they had any sense, would ditch Abbott for Turnball, and then they’d win the next election by miles.]
I agree, the Lib’s can’t win with Abbott.
[But the poison is still in the system, she sits at the top and in the end will kill the host.]
Most parasites aren’t poisonous. Bit of a waste of ecological effort really. Paralysis ticks would be one exception.
The MOE crusaders stride forth like clockwork, clinking their coconuts together and pretending to ride horses.
[Yes but Turnbull does not represent the modern “Liberal” party. he is vaguely liberal….. They will never stomach him. He is not American religious fanatic enough….]
Why would the Liberals dump Abbott as leader while he keeps getting in the mid 50s 2pp and in the high 40s on the primary vote?
You are in dreamland.
30
So he thinks that he will remain Premier of Victoria for a hole term?
blue green
I may be wrong, but I understand that paralysis ticks (being a native species) evolved to parasitise native fauna who do not die from hosting them. It is just introduced species (dogs, cats, etc) that are killed by them.
[Why would the Liberals dump Abbott as leader while he keeps getting in the mid 50s 2pp and in the high 40s on the primary vote?]
Because he’s very unpopular on PB?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/bowen-arrow-minister-fires-back-at-gillards-timeline-over-foreign-job-deal/story-fn7q4q9f-1226370438931
Headline of the week. Kudos where it is due.
Loving the heads exploding among the anti-Gillard hate folk such as TLM.
Newspoll must burn.
Love it.
Shows On: I made a mistake earlier, I meant that the only lower house Labor MP in QLD who voted for Rudd was K Rudd himself – apologies for that!
Let’s wait and see if Labor can sustain this 46% 2PP over the next month or so, and it is at odds with today’s Essential(which shows a 1% swing to the Coalition 2PP).
Funny that News Ltd, who is derided in here as a threat to democracy, produces a poll that pleases its harshest critics – oh the irony of that one. 😀
Shows On: Turnball is unwanted by the Liberals and Rudd is unwanted by Labor.
Perhaps Malcolm and Kevin should go off and start their own party?
TLM
Do not be mislead, News Ltd IS a threat to democracy.
[Let’s wait and see if Labor can sustain this 46% 2PP over the next month or so, and it is at odds with today’s Essential(which shows a 1% swing to the Coalition 2PP).]
Of course Labor can sustain 46, it has been doing that fine for a year but that would be a massive loss at an election.
[swamprat
Posted Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 12:06 am | Permalink
blue green
I may be wrong, but I understand that paralysis ticks (being a native species) evolved to parasitise native fauna who do not die from hosting them. It is just introduced species (dogs, cats, etc) that are killed by them.]
It seems a reasonable hypothesis, but I do not know the answer.
Interestingly, fox baiting programs in near-urban bushlan areas have lead to the increase in bandicoot numbers which has lifted tick numbers and the number of people suffering tick borne diseases are increasing. New diseased are showing up regularly and they are often mistakenly diagnosed as chronic fatigue or fibromyalgia. Authorities have denied the presence of Lyme disease in Australia for ages, and only now are considering it. But given one of my closest friends (ecologist) has contracted it I know its no BS.
Swamprat
[Tick paralysis has also been observed in native fauna, but apparently not in those in the wild state. Bandicoots from an area where I. holocyclus was rare or absent devloped paralysis when infested with six to eight female ticks. The apparent natural immunity of bandicoots in the wild may be an acquired immunity following repeated light infestations with larvae and nymphs. Pet kangaroos and wallabies have also been said to have suffered from tick paralysis.
Tick paralysis has been observed in bats on the Atherton Tableland.]
http://www.ullavet.com.au/tick.html
[ShowsOn
but that would be a massive loss at an election.
]
The obvious, once again bought to you by showson. Tomorrow he predicts the sky colour. Stay tuned to get the latest results.
Yes, my vet says that native fauna, bandicoots, wallabies bring ticks in as they are immune to them. It makes sense after all that (our) invasive species are vulnerable.
abbotts crack is showing ,seems He might have to sell where one is,he has no helpers in abetz ,brandis,bishops ruddock,pyne,morrison ,hunt,besides being flawed material,he has hinges of poor quality which will not hold together,the poll will be a panic spill,but sadly they are all worse than abbott.
bluegreen,
OK i live in high paralysis tick country so I assume local fauna are immune.
Age Poll No. 5, Febuary 1972
Variable p1q3c : THROW CANS AT REFEREE
Values Categories N
1 AGREE STRONGLY 10
1.0%
2 AGREE IN PART 13
1.3%
3 DISAGREE IN PART 20
2.0%
4 DISAGREE STRONGLY 952
95.1%
9 NOT ESTABLISHED 6
0.6%
Confessions: The sober people on this blog ain’t the Gillard cheer squad, of which you’re the card carrying main leader and chief denigrator of a former PM of this country.
Dose of reality for ya: a 2PP vote of 46% equates to a Coalition majority of 40 seats.
Hardly reason to get out the streamers & the party balloons. 🙂
Your girl will stuff up again soon enough, it’s in her political DNA.
We’ve got evidence in tomorrow’s newspapers that Bowen doesn’t buy her version of what occured last week with the Rinehart mine deal.
Just a comment on the popularity or carbon pricing schemes. Polls have shown that opposition against a carbon tax is aound 60% whereas support for a scheme where 500 of the largest polluters pay to pollute and that money is distributed to households and to support renewables and exposed industries is also 60%.
I think when the public realise they are getting the latter rather than the former Mr Abbott’s and Ms Gillard’s fortunes may turn.
Though I have had a tick on me, luckily my dog has not.
William
And what are the cross-tabs on that say for Collingwood supporters?
And, whenever Rudd is mentioned in the media, Labor’s primary vote goes up. 🙂
Gough
Why has the Government been unable to tell the people the truth?
Why is ALP incapable of selling a message?
[Of course Labor can sustain 46, it has been doing that fine for a year but that would be a massive loss at an election.]
And if you look at qualitative polls on the carbon price you don’t need to be very prescient to realise that there is still plenty of upside for the government. And that’s before you start making calculations about how easy it is to say “no” rather than explain how you are going to take away tax breaks etc…or how the difficulties of the hung parliament for the government will disappear during a month long election campaign.
It’s only one poll and the pollytrend is still terrible but it helps buy more time and breathing space for Gillard.
If Newspoll and ER were both at 54-46, I’d be more convinced the worm had turned.
We’ve got months to wait anyway. Dumping Gillard at the moment would be insane.
[And if you look at qualitative polls on the carbon price you don’t need to be very prescient to realise that there is still plenty of upside for the government. And that’s before you start making calculations about how easy it is to say “no” rather than explain how you are going to take away tax breaks etc…or how the difficulties of the hung parliament for the government will disappear during a month long election campaign.]
Not to mention the possibility that Abbott and the Coalition have already shot almost everything in their arsenal. Its been great at keeping polls down, but its not going to appear ‘new’ or shocking during an election campaign after nearly two years of it.