Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  6. ML

    The Coalition’s attempted destruction of Mr Thomson came to an abrupt end during the week.

    Maybe the internal polling showed them that the punters are not as much into vicious bloodlust as is Mr Abbott?

  9. Will be interesting to see if the Liberals change tactics at all – could be a bit of too much Thomson in these numbers but overall I’d say budget bounce

  14. Abbott’s screwed, regardless of the ALP.

    This should buy Gillard time. Let’s see what can be done

    Hopefully she comes out swinging tomorrow. Always looks better on the front foot. As Keating said at the start of the year “get the sword out and go for him”

  16. @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, Tony Abbott is not electable. what are you waiting for, else you will be another Peter Costello. No balls #auspol

  17. Abbott lost it when Craig Thomson got the vote of the Dobell locals at the Toukley Bowling Club after they had just watched Thommo’s speech to parliament. Balloon began deflating from that point on.

  19. Abbott and Pyne showed their tru colors last week and people didn’t like what they saw. As others have commented, there was a palpable sense that they had gone too far, and the fake sympathy was seen for what it was.

    No doubt they both got wind of the polling and dropped the attack line in QT today. Oakeshott’s motion tomorrow will be interesting. Expect a more restrained response from the Opposition. Time for the Cabinet to get behind the PMoA and start selling the positive news.

  20. Rossmore @ 3

    Where’s Bemused when you need him?

    Right here. Been trying to catch up with previous comments.

    Now, what do you need me for?

  21. Abbott and Pyne showed their tru colors last week and people didn’t like what they saw. As others have commented, there was a palpable sense that they had gone too far, and the fake sympathy was seen for what it was.

    No doubt they both got wind of the polling and dropped the attack line in QT today. Oakeshott’s motion tomorrow will be interesting. Expect a more restrained response from the Opposition. Time for the Cabinet to get behind the PMoA and start selling the positive news.

  23. Abbott has reached his lowest apporval rating ever. The lowest approval rating for an opposition leader since Kim Beazley confused Karl Rove and Rove McManus in 2006

  26. [with newspoll bias and 2013 swingback taken into account this is a 53-47 result in favour of labor. ]
    Prove that Newspoll is biased.

    And WTF do you mean by “swingback”? Is that your “wishful thinking” factor?

  28. Go with the mining tax too. A great policy that wedges the Coalition in so many ways. People get what’s going on. Abbott’s immobilised by it.

    Takes heat off the price on carbon as well

  29. Labor needs to consolidate this momentum and have Thomson wheeled into QT tomorrow on a stretcher with a drip on his arm.

  31. Lesson101 for PB Libs – be wary of PVO pre-Newspoll announcements.

    Re my earlier 52/48 Newspoll it may have been 53/47 but whatever it was when the Libs bottom out in Feb/March this year. I recall PVO made a similar prediction on all us Libs got excited only to end up with egg all over our faces.

    I think it the reaction to the over-reaction to Thomson plus the Libs just generally had an ordinary week last week.

    Essential is a bit strange though.

    Anyway on those numbers Gillard is safe from the Ruddstoration for now.

  33. [Hopefully she comes out swinging tomorrow. Always looks better on the front foot. As Keating said at the start of the year “get the sword out and go for him”]

    But spur i do not think the PM is comfortable or capable with dealing with ‘front foot’ things. Despite her skills at negotiation etc she does not think in broad strategic values nor is she able to present a convincing “vision”.

    I think she takes her views about Australia from what her mates in Washington tell her. Sorry for the scepticism because I desperately want the ALP to keep out the Abbott maniac But …..

  34. Time to email all Lib MPs and tell them the only way to ensure a victory is to ditch Abbott and bring back Turnbull.

    😀

  35. [Rita Panahi ‏@RitaPanahi

    Rumours that a certain labor MP…possibly @Yvettedathmp is changing sides. Wowee!]

    [Rita Panahi ‏@RitaPanahi

    @mattyweiss1 she’s a Qld MP too so it’s self preservation.]

    [Rita Panahi ‏@RitaPanahi

    @louisdet77 @yvettedathmp @randallgill mysterious that as rumours emerge her twitter account is now protected.]
    W.T.F.

  38. Well, well, well. Not exactly time to pop the champagne but better than expected! Julia Gillard is looking much more likely to get to the 53/47 poll position she needs by September to stay on as PM til the next election. There would be a lot of relieved MPs in marginal seats feeling a bit happier tonight. Interesting that events of the past months have narrowed Abbott’s lead by 10 points!! The next 3 to 4 months will be interesting indeed.

  39. Ah congratulations from Mod Lib – after everything he has said about Gillard in the last couple of hours or so?

    You gotta laugh.

    All we need now is a congratulations from Evan so we can all chunder.

    *nite*

  40. [Go with the mining tax too. A great policy that wedges the Coalition in so many ways. People get what’s going on. Abbott’s immobilised by it.]

    Need to keep referring to Abbott as Gina’s butler. Repeat it often enough and it will stick in people’s minds. The cartoonists will catch on a well.

  41. [ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
    with newspoll bias and 2013 swingback taken into account this is a 53-47 result in favour of labor.

    Prove that Newspoll is biased.

    And WTF do you mean by “swingback”? Is that your “wishful thinking” factor?
    ]

    LOL, you confused my prediction with every other prediction on pb.

    … and to think you claim to have been quoted in hansard.

  42. [Labor needs to consolidate this momentum and have Thomson wheeled into QT tomorrow on a stretcher with a drip on his arm.]
    WTF do you mean “consolidate this momentum” This poll fits with the same long term trend going back a year!

  43. Abbott netsat -29 his worst ever.
    Abbott dissatisfaction 60 his worst ever.

    Average LOpp dissatisfaction + Opposition 2PP over last five Newspolls = 12.8. This is the highest level for this stat (which is an indicator of how many people would vote for the Opposition but don’t like its leader) in the history of Newspoll.

    It is interesting that when Labor seems to be in big trouble and should be expected to record awful results, Abbott becomes more unpopular according to Newspoll and the Labor 2PP improves. This happened during the failed Ruddstoration and it is now happening again.

  45. Well, now the numbers are confirmed I’m okay discussing them. They looked a little too, let’s say, encouraging for me to trust them.

    I think the shift is just due to hip pockets. Money’s all people care about when it all boils down. It’s a cautious “things might not be so bad after all” response. The biggest and bestest scare campaigns from the LNP were all about money. Carbon Tax is the last of them.

    If that’s the case, people aren’t going to give a crap about Thomson, or Slipper either for that matter. They’ll drift back over to the ALP because, well, they’ll run out of reasons not to. Nothing more spectacular than that.

    But then, who knows? Maybe Abbott will flick the switch to policy? Remember that piece of crap from the press at the end of last year? Abbott tried it out for about a week, then said bugger it and went hard on any ‘scandal’ he could lay his hands on.

    I just don’t know how many more simmering issues he can work with. He’s probably somewhere praying for a downturn in the economy right now. That’s what he really needs.

  46. Honestly, how can Coalition State governments think they can get away with ripping up Workers Comp Entitlements(NSW), defunding Auslan and other TAFE courses(Vic), instituting the institutional go-slow on Public Housing when people are living in tents FFS(WA), and employ Peter Costello (Qld), and not be punished for it by the electorate?

    Actually, that’s what polls ARE good for, instant reactions to stuff like that. And no one can tell me that actions by State governments don’t bleed into national polls.

  48. [Average LOpp dissatisfaction + Opposition 2PP over last five Newspolls = 12.8]

    Sorry that should be 112.8 of course!

  49. [LOL, you confused my prediction with every other prediction on pb.

    … and to think you claim to have been quoted in hansard.]
    Yes I have been quoted in Hansard thanks for reminding me of this fact.

    If you want to see where I have been quoted, just reading Hansard.

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