GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
QANDA very good tonight. Marr, Ms Miriam, and Humphries sparking off well. Jones largely stum which is good.
[It’s only one poll and the pollytrend is still terrible but it helps buy more time and breathing space for Gillard.
If Newspoll and ER were both at 54-46, I’d be more convinced the worm had turned.
We’ve got months to wait anyway. Dumping Gillard at the moment would be insane.]
Prettymuch. I expect the usual ‘The PM has won a temporary reprieve’ style of reporting and perhaps a break from Ruddstoration stories until the next polling period.
Would love to see the state by state breakdowns – I’d guess that Labor is doing very well in VIC and SA.
There are a couple of points about the relevance of current polling – remembering it is still around 15 months to a likely election date.
From Gillard’s perspective, it is a question of survival until the start of the election campaign. To have any hope of winning, she’s got be close to 52/48. Remember in 2010 polls started at 55/45 to Labor but as a result of the campaigns disasters ended up at 50/50 on election day. Any election is going to be line ball if the parties are sitting within 4-5 points of each other at the outset of the campaign.
Where current poling is relevant is if it becomes entrenched at 60/40 – there is no way back from there. Ask Kenneally and Bligh.
But Gillard seems to have clawed back some ground over the past month, which brings her leadership closer to safe territory.
Of course an actual 54/46 election day result would be a landslide win. But polling 15 months out is not a reliable guide to what the outcome will be.
For Gillard and Labor, 54/46 is merely a base to work from. And they’d be a lot happier tonight than a month ago when they were looking at a 59/41.
No gloating from me. And no predictions either. Let’s wait til September!
The Liberals too were gloating last week about a bad Newspoll for Labor.
The problem for Abbott – can he readjust his tactics and move from protest to putting out some policy?
Swamprat
As Mulder & Scully will tell you the truth is out there and from July 1 people will be living it.
On the pollls I actually put more stock in Essential rather than Newspoll and I think things have stabilised at around 45 2pp for labor.
If labor throw more money at the punters and interest rates stay low or get lower then that more than likely equates to good economic management out there in voter land.
Expect the narrowing in the last quarter of the year.
No. His head would explode.
Gallup poll, December 1984
5a. Who do you believe is the most effective State Premier in
Australia?
Count Percent Code Category label
99 5.3% (1) BANNON
1082 58.0% (2) BJELKE-PETERSEN
121 6.5% (3) BURKE
244 13.1% (4) CAIN
39 2.1% (5) GRAY
282 15.1% (6) WRAN
236 —– (0) DK;NS
If the Coalition dump Abbott, all the splits open up. If their polling goes below a certain level, they have to face some harsh realities about their ideology and their philisophical inconsistencies. My view is that once he’s gone, a federal Liberal/National split is inevitable as there are too many irreconcilable differences and there are certain fault line issues coming to a head like farming vs mining, ecological sustainability, fiscal conservatism, IR etc
While Abbott’s leader and the Coalition are ahead in the polls, they can remain comfortably living in denial which tends to be the preferred conservative position in this country. If he goes, sit back and enjoy the pyrotechnics
[Not to mention the possibility that Abbott and the Coalition have already shot almost everything in their arsenal. Its been great at keeping polls down, but its not going to appear ‘new’ or shocking during an election campaign after nearly two years of it.]
I think we might have seen the beginning of that in the past month. I can’t remember the last time I watched the news and thought that the ALP had got the better of the coverage… People say the electorate have switched off to Gillard, but I think they are beginning to switch off from the confected daily crisis.
ABBOTT IS SCREWED!
THE TREND IS GOING TO KILL HIM!
People like getting extra in their bank accounts, and the Government gets a lift from it in the polls – that’s all it is!
This is no proof of Gillard doing anything spectacular over the past month or so.
Just on carbon pricing popularity again.
I remember some polling in NZ where business was against the ETS about 70/30 pre introduction and fllipped to 60% support one year after introduction.
I’d say similar dynamics will operate here.
Abbott’s got a tough sell to repeal something most of the voters wont really feel, repeal tax cuts and benefits and then try and convince voters Prices will actually come down.
[If the Coalition dump Abbott, all the splits open up. If their polling goes below a certain level, they have to face some harsh realities about their ideology and their philisophical inconsistencies. My view is that once he’s gone, a federal Liberal/National split is inevitable as there are too many irreconcilable differences and there are certain fault line issues coming to a head like farming vs mining, ecological sustainability, fiscal conservatism, IR etc]
Very true. And bear in mind too that if Abbott is replaced, unless they manage it very carefully it takes a lot of the power out of their whole ‘JULIA KNIFED KEVIN OH MY GOD NO LIBERAL POLITICIAN WOULD EVER DO SUCH A THING!!!” narrative.
If they dumped Abbott, Morrison would get the gig – my prediction.
[If they dumped Abbott, Morrison would get the gig – my prediction.]
Even I could beat Morrison.
Thornleigh
Morrison would clearly be the logical choice. The Coalition’s version of Mark Latham
[Very true. And bear in mind too that if Abbott is replaced, unless they manage it very carefully it takes a lot of the power out of their whole ‘JULIA KNIFED KEVIN OH MY GOD NO LIBERAL POLITICIAN WOULD EVER DO SUCH A THING!!!” narrative.]
Voters don’t care about knife work if they think the person with the knife is better than the person who was knifed.
TLM
[If they dumped Abbott, Morrison would get the gig – my prediction]
Morrison is a redneck rascist,rather mirabella than him
snap
[abbotts crack is showing]
I surely hope not, the budgies are bad enough.
[While Abbott’s leader and the Coalition are ahead in the polls, they can remain comfortably living in denial which tends to be the preferred conservative position in this country. If he goes, sit back and enjoy the pyrotechnics]
We will be back in 2009 again. Conservatives like the past. 🙂
[If they dumped Abbott, Morrison would get the gig – my prediction.]
I agree that Morrison would be the candidate for the Conservative wing. The candidate for the liberal wing would be Hockey, and I think Hockey would narrowly win.
Abbott will be leader in 2013. Remember where the coalition were at in December 2009? Measured by the 2010 result, and the sustained polling leads since then, he is under no threat.
Let’s be clear: there’s a small breath of fresh air for Gillard with this poll, but she needs to take advantage of it. Get on the front foot and start setting the agenda rather than letting Abbott go back to his circle of competence. The mining tax and the NBN would be a good places to start I think, but it’s got to be immediate. If she waits, the opportunity will be lost
Okay, considering the media focus on doom and gloom and Thomson slipper it appears that the Government has at least stabilized it position
This is partly due to over the course of recent months the Government has focused on positive politics including the Economy, NBN, Aged Care Reforms & NDIS
This is broadly in line with my often repeated comments here and while the Liberals still are in a comfortable position they do need to start to work out their policy positions and having State Liberal governments backing away from promises to overturn previous State ALP polities makes the Federal Liberal Party job of convincing the voters a little harder.
This isn’t helped by the reckless policy of wanting to slash $70Billion out of the budget at a time when business wants Canberra to be more active.
Both sides can be happy with this result although it goes to show that potentially the voters have just stopped listening to politics altogether
[Abbott will be leader in 2013. Remember where the coalition were at in December 2009? Measured by the 2010 result, and the sustained polling leads since then, he is under no threat.]
If only Labor went back to Rudd earlier this year… If they did that attention would shift to what Abbott is proposing, i.e. bugger all.
Shows on
Hockey has been exposed for the lightweight he is as Shadow Treasurer. He has no spine. Occasionally he says something intelligent, but then the next day he completely repudiates it.
The fact that he can’t win the communication battle over Swan speaks volumes about him.
[Abbott will be leader in 2013. Remember where the coalition were at in December 2009? Measured by the 2010 result, and the sustained polling leads since then, he is under no threat.]
Clearly then the liberals lack not only a soul and a conscience, but brains as well.
[Occasionally he says something intelligent … ]
Only when Julie gets someone to write it for him, as neither of them do original work.
[Let’s be clear: there’s a small breath of fresh air for Gillard with this poll, but she needs to take advantage of it. Get on the front foot and start setting the agenda rather than letting Abbott go back to his circle of competence. The mining tax and the NBN would be a good places to start I think, but it’s got to be immediate. If she waits, the opportunity will be lost]
I am normally an optimist, but clear air would be too much to ask… no clicks in that. The media seem to prefer leadership rumours and pointing out one MP said “Wednesday” and the PM said “early in the week”… which apparently is a clear indication of a dysfunctional government….
WWP
[Clearly then the liberals lack not only a soul and a conscience, but brains as well.
Also enjoy being done slowly.
[Shows on
Hockey has been exposed for the lightweight he is as Shadow Treasurer. He has no spine. Occasionally he says something intelligent, but then the next day he completely repudiates it.]
Oh I totally agree. Hockey blocked me on Twitter because I kept pointing out all the stupid things he has said. In fact my mention in Hansard concerned this very issue.
But Abbott is a complete economic dunce too, and the Coalition has had no problems with him as their leader.
Shows on
Agree that under Rudd, Abbott is well and truly gone. I think the time for that however is around October. The media cycle’s eased up on Gillard today, let’s see what she can make of it.
Puff
Oh,you are awful
OMG
Can we move on! We don’t see any of the PB Liberals sulking that if Costello had lead them to 2010 that they would be back in Government
[Also enjoy being done slowly.]
I thought Hewson, the original slow cook was a fish out of water tonight, also a bit superficial fanboy lib at some points, usually he comes across better than a fanboy.
Shows on
It’s not just that he’s incompetent, but the fact that he hasn’t got a spine or the temperament. He’s like the Coalition’s version of Beazley. Even Paul Howes is able to score points off him. That’s how weak he is
[We don’t see any of the PB Liberals sulking that if Costello had lead them to 2010 that they would be back in Government]
So we have two proven PM’s and yowse only have one in like 30 years, you’all are just jealous.
[Beazley]
Beazley was a great opposition leader and would have made a fantastic PM, the best since Paul easily.
WeWantPaul
What would I be jealous off.
I am curious what side of the political fence do you think I am on? this could be interesting
[Agree that under Rudd, Abbott is well and truly gone. I think the time for that however is around October. The media cycle’s eased up on Gillard today, let’s see what she can make of it.]
Woah, did it? The Daily Telegraph pointed out that last Friday Gillard essentially lied about not knowing about the migration work deal, even though yesterday in parliament Bowen pointed out that the PM’s office was given a detailed memo about the deal on Monday!
[Shows on
Agree that under Rudd, Abbott is well and truly gone.]
We’ve been over this before, but I’m not so sure that in that event Rudd would be able to destroy him. Abbott would have the confidence of having ‘beaten’ two prime ministers, Rudd would get a much harder ride from the media than he generally has, people would question the stability of his frontbench, there’d be all sorts of nasty material coming out about his behaviour under Gillard etc: Incidentally, it’d be quite amusing to read the commentary if Abbott loses his position before Gillard. 😛
[I am curious what side of the political fence do you think I am on]
My memory of your posts when you first arrived aren’t ambiguous, I take it that is what you are going for now? And no I don’t really care which side you were previously on or are on, but the ‘oh can we move on’ question kinda answers itself doesn’t it? The answer is no.
There are some pretty good reasons for it too.
[Agree that under Rudd, Abbott is well and truly gone. I think the time for that however is around October. The media cycle’s eased up on Gillard today, let’s see what she can make of it.]
Letting up? The news I saw tonight did a story on job losses at Hastie and then directly linked that to the story about Gina getting foreign workers… and then a bunch of semantics about whether “Wednesday” meant “early in the week”…
WeWantPaul
You were being suggestive by suggested that I was jealous therefore I asked you what side of politics do you think I am on & I don’t know how long you have been around but I was here before the 2007 election
I would like to think that i have been constant over that time
Really look forward to ashby/slipper case ,ole pete is not under constant media harrasment,but think the losers are the media and abbott backers,the scum backing abbott will someday get a cushy job like reith in the ABc
rishane @192 I agree the “party divided” treatment from the media would probably be even worse with Rudd. Certainly wouldn’t change much here at PB 🙂
When does the Ashby hearing comes up ?
With 1/7 fast approaching with the sky not falling in, and with likely murkey involvement with ML and perhaps some libs in the FWA schemozle, and if the rumours surrounding Ashby start to prove accurate, whats the chance we will see the Gap between the Fiberals and the Government further narrow ?
[You were being suggestive by suggested that I was jealous therefore I asked you what side of politics do you think I am on & I don’t know how long you have been around but I was here before the 2007 election]
I’m sorry if I offended you, you read as both ‘them’ and ‘jealous’. I can’t remember how we used names pre-Crikey but post Crikey I had some technical issues with devices and crikey logins, but I migrated to pre-crikey from OzPolitics when that shut down, William probably remembers it was when his nice place filled with bogans.
Don’t tell William but it was a bit snobby at the time, but since I came it has lots of lowbrow moments, at least some of which I contributed too.