Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. fulv

    dont laugh

    Kofi just rang ans asked could BG help him out solving the syria thing

    I said he would get back to him after he had helped oakes with his next column


  2. swamprat @ 5716

    We must be about the same age as our experiences are closely parallel.

    I stuck it out mostly but did drop out of active branch participation for a few years.

    Meetings are as you say, often boring and they don’t suit everyone. The ALP has a lot of people aware of this but no-one has yet come up with a satisfactory alternative as far as I am aware.

    With that, I say goodnight all.

  3. Bemused

    In answer to your question. No I have never joined another party after that. I have no party… I am still a democratic socialist in the Australian tradition so which Party should I support?

    The Labor Party is a devoted devotee (hehe) of the cult of “free” markets. (I notice labourites no call themselves “progressives” like USA democrats.. i.e. wet neo-liberals, certainly not my sort of party)

  4. fiona @ 5748
    Got me as I was about to go.

    I have no idea of your voice, but you come across as a reasonable person and I always read your posts. Doesn’t mean I always agree, but so what? I can respect differences of opinion.

  5. [No drake, I recall you as pleasant and reasonable.

    The real test of ‘reasonable’ comes if you disagree on something so maybe we have not disagreed yet.]

    Actually, I remember a huge blue I had with you and Frank (an unlikely pairing) over one Jeffrey Gibb Kennett.

    Ah, the memories…

  6. [I guess most of you in here hated all of the media coverage the new addition to the Rudd family got today.]

    Has Rudd had a baby?

  7. Schnappi

    He’s higher up the pendulum. Not required to win (although given he’s pitched himself to Liberal/Greens preferences rather than eating into the ALP vote, I suspect he’ll lose next time)

  8. Saving the world through the power of supercillious pomposity can be tiring,

    But that doesn’t frighten me off trying!! 🙂

    Have to say though, there appears to be a some slight volatility on financial markets at the moment. Hope the Govt is selling lots of looooong term bonds while the yield is so low.

  9. swamprat @ 5753

    Damn you! Keeping me up like this when I said I was going! 😡

    You should join the ALP of course and give it the benefit of your ideas and experience. I am sure you could contribute a lot and there is a big rebuilding job to be done.

    Maybe now you are older and wiser you can see ways to have more influence.

    Those are my last words for tonight.

  10. Swamprat,

    [I will never vote Liberal in my life. Never have never will. Although I came from a conservative voting family.

    Sometimes I have voted “informal” in that filled out half the card but refused to give any preference to wicked parties. As a result my vote is not counted even though i had given a few obvious preferences.]

    Sorry, that doesn’t cut it for me.

    Either you make up your mind to support a party, or else be honest and dont/spoil your vote. In a democracy where at least you are forced to the polling booths, to jack up at the last moment is dishonest if you are truly serious about your political allegiance.

    Besides, there’s nothing like the surreptitious pleasure of voting backwards. Now, whom shall I place last? CEC? Family First? Other Dingbat?

  11. The real test of ‘reasonable’ comes if you disagree on something

    I can be entirely reasonable. Except when people start about Ruddstoration or make idiot comments on the NBN.

    Kind of like someone touching the hair…………… GRRRRR. 🙁

    Oh, and Global Warming Denialists give me the sh$ts.

  12. bemused:

    [Got me as I was about to go.

    I have no idea of your voice, but you come across as a reasonable person and I always read your posts. Doesn’t mean I always agree, but so what? I can respect differences of opinion.]

    Thank you, and likewise – even if so far it’s mostly been disagreement on my part! But tolerance of difference goes a long way, and tolerance of ambiguity is an even better trait.

  13. fiona

    yes i have voted backwards hehe

    BUt put it this way sometimes I get too upset with ALP. The second last State election in Qld I voted daylight saving party and a couple of independents/greens and gave no pref to labor. I was really pissed off with them. (I was in a safe ALP seat,then They had placed in a Union nobody, of course)

    They won that election

  14. Seats the Coalition need to win in order to win the next election

    Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.3%
    Deakin (VIC) ALP 0.6%
    Greenway (NSW) ALP 0.9%
    Robertson (NSW) ALP 1.0%

    If the ALP wins the seats below

    Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1%
    Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.1%

    Seats the Coalition need to hold in order to win the next election

    Boothby (SA) LIB 0.6%
    Hasluck (WA) LIB 0.6%

  15. I liked this from Hartcher:

    [Abbott lives in fear of stunts because, we have to conclude, he has built his own political success on stunts. He goes from factory to factory, day after day, declaring imminent bankruptcy as he spreads a fear campaign. He is the leader who called for a “people’s revolt” against a carbon tax.
    Even the attack that Abbott’s treasury spokesman was mounting when the government tried to gag him was a stunt.

    Read more:

  16. Swamprat,

    I can understand that, and your frustration. I think that that’s one of the problems of not having an upper house.

    However, it’s not an excuse to allowing that frustration to overflow into the federal sphere.

    With these pompous sentiments I am DEFINITELY going to bed now.

    Sweet dreams to you all,

    and to BK,

    xxx SWALK :kiss:

    (yes, I pwomise I’ll grow out of it in a month or two 👿 )

  17. [He is still hankering for Rudd and the juvenile spin cycle the former PM utilized.]

    Well to be fair, the constant leaking must have made his job way easier. Now he has to possibly do more work! Damn Gillard. 😉

  18. Gus

    The Thomson stuff will most likely outlast the parliament

    The Slipper stuff could be resolved in 3 weeks. Depends on the police investigation.

    The likelihood of an early election is minimal. Just depends on whether the ALP can turn things around by September/October

  19. hypo time

    mr and mrs joe blow have been assaulted by fib and msm spin for 18 mths

    their ahem cheerleader has been shown to be a woozy girls blouse and come 1 july a total fraud

    plus lots of moolah with the promise of more to come under the bitch/witch/ranga/barren slut ( names courtesy fo theirmsm)

    Have a guess what pilgrims


  20. If a handshake contributed to Latham losing 2004 then the impact of running away will be seen as a turning point.

    I agree with Andrew Elder I can’t see Tone becoming PM, yes I know what the polls say yet I recall polls in 2007 that claimed that the ALP were going to win blue blooded Liberal heartland seats.

    And claims in 2001 that the Liberals were on track to win Newcastle (federally)

  21. beemer

    herein dobell thoomo is a saint

    the fucktards of the MSM and their fals flaggers (HI USED BUM) are just turning peeps to the ALP in droves


  22. Actually what Thomson did was smart, I saw earlier today that there were some here that felt he had acted poorly in voting against the ALP position but if I understand ALP rules correctly then he hasn’t broken any rules for it wasn’t a vote based on a party room vote or cabinet decision.

    Also being the 2nd of June has Whyalla disappeared yet or doesn’t the great big huge large giant tax come in to the start of July

  23. I was doing a bit of window shopping and wondered into a busy gift shop (yes it was full of people) and noticed a witty sign which read something along the lines off

    “To appear more intelligence, stand next to a stupid person”

  24. Fellow Australians

    To day I announce a federal election
    This election will be based on who do you trust to deliver a secure future with guaranteed comepnsation

    The choice is simple, a leader who cuts and runs and relies on scare campaigns and lies or a leader who delivers fair outcomes for ALL australians

    On @#$%^&* the choice is yours, choose wisely

    Thank You

  25. TLM Not at all, Jessica Rudd seems a lovely girl and as much as I have bagged Rudd at times I think I would be more concerned if Rudd was faultless for I find people that appear to be faultless tend to turn out as fake.

  26. Gussie

    The Government should hold off calling an election, if the crap in Europe hits the fan then that gives the Government another chance to showcase its economic management ability.

    Interest Rates are heading lower and the political wind appears to not be blowing as hard against the Government as it was six months ago.

  27. The following article confirms the point that I have made several times previously.

    I think a large part of the problem in Victoria is psychological confidence. I think many business have gone into a holding patten partly due to the media repeatable gloomy reporting.

    Yes, I know that the Europeans are looking bad but there are many positives here in the medium to longer term.

    Its not often that I agree with Soul Eslake but I think the RBA might be wise to hold or only go .25% for I can see the need later in the year for a more aggressive rate cut.

    Another factor has been the bad mouthing of the economy by Tone and co

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