Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. TLM @ 5700

    I hope our country is not so facile that a “marriage” is required.

    Though PM Gillard does think gays are not worthy of that august institution. Maybe she does not consider herself worthy either.

  4. swamprat @ 5697

    Though I was briefly a member of the ALP. My experience is that branches live in a fantasy world where what we did had zero influence on the Labor Oligarchy that owned the party. We were just cannon fodder.

    Fantasy world? You mean just like PB? 😛

    Of course in a large party, your vote and influence is diluted by so many others.

    So, what did you do then? Join the Greens? Big frog in small pond stuff. 😀

  7. briefly @ 5680, and bemused @ 5683,

    I’ve just realised that I’m doing an “adopt an ALP politician each week”.

    It’s worth it: the exhaled breath when the poor person in the electorate office realises that you are saying something nice is a joy in its own right.

    For what it’s worth, I don’t care whether I’m saying nice things to politicians or whoever: it’s about time that we give credit to anybody who does a service role if they do a damn’ fine job, whether they are MPs, the people who sell you train tickets, or what else. I loathe the whingeing culture that has infected Australia. I’d much rather tell people that they are doing a fantastic job. Is it really so difficult to be generous with praise?

  8. Pegasus

    It was a bit depressing in some ways, except for Anthony Green who just saw low votes/polling is cyclical, i.e. like all statisticians he seems history as going in cycles like labor down will come back because it has done so before.

    Manne interpreted the current problems as bad decisions by both Rudd and Gillard.

    Strangely Jones was the most pessimistic as he thought the decline in union membership and ALP branches would make it very hard for the ALP to revive from a “theoretical” wipeout.

  11. [5690
    middle man

    briefly. until those holding the bonds are willing to write them off, they will hold the world to ransom.]

    European finance is in all kinds of trouble. I’m sure the Governments would like to write off a lot of debt, but to do so would rupture the whole credit system. They have a terrible, intractable problem.

    In most economies, the Central Bank can act as lender of last resort to Governments. So if the private credit markets are incapable of functioning, the central banks can act to guarantee the solvency/liquidity of the system. But the Europeans do not have this capacity. As a result, anything that threatens the solvency of private banking also threatens the solvency of public borrowers.

    So even though many of their banks are essentially broke – and their bondholders are sitting on large but unrealized losses – they cannot be closed. The losses cannot be crystallized and written off. And yet the public agencies do not have the financial strength to support the private banks either. So they have a system that is growing weaker and weaker all the time. It is idiotic and cannot be fixed.

  12. [I was sort of quoting Barry Jones. He was being a bit sarcastic.]

    Nevermind. It was hilarious watching Pegasus in a fit of vindication.

  13. Swamprat (and TLM):

    [I hope our country is not so facile that a “marriage” is required.

    Though PM Gillard does think gays are not worthy of that august institution. Maybe she does not consider herself worthy either.]

    Perhaps the Prime Minister doesn’t regard the “institution” as particularly “august”.

    IM not at all HO, she’d be right.

  14. [Abbott’s negative approach to everything does seem to be reaching its use by date. It probably did some time back but the government keeps finding ways to take the spotlight off him.]

    Spot on.

    Actually, this is why I think if Labor can stop shooting themselves in the foot they’ll win the next election with a big majority. Apart from the outbreaks of madness we all know about I do think this minority government has been good in a lot of ways. But I realise I’m in a minority in Australia at the moment and reckon whoever wins the next election will win big.

    I also realise this non foot shooting is a very big if…

  16. Bemused @ 5704

    Haha, I was a member for a few years in Qld. The Great Mal Colston was our branch President? Chairman? Lord?, whatever his position was. This was in the early ’70s.

    It was near UniQue so full of keen young (and old) radicals, I suppose. We wanted socialism NOW!!

    I handed out HtoV cards for a few elections. Marched in anti-Vietnam and Land Right marches in semi-fascist Joh’s Queensland.

    I decided i hated boring branch meetings….. we use to pass many motions that obviously went straight into the garbage…..

  19. fiona @ 5713

    I am sure she probably doesn’t.

    But yet she is adamant that gays do not deserve it. Very curious, I think. She has never given a rational explanation do deny other Australians that “right”

  20. drake
    [It was hilarious watching Pegasus in a fit of vindication.]
    Only in your fevered and delusional mind 😉

    I asked because I was surprised.

  22. [5707
    fiona
    Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    briefly @ 5680, and bemused @ 5683,

    I’ve just realised that I’m doing an “adopt an ALP politician each week”.

    It’s worth it: the exhaled breath when the poor person in the electorate office realises that you are saying something nice is a joy in its own right.]

    Very good idea, fiona. I am heartily sick of the bitterness, the scorn and the malice. It is as if some kind of talk-back disease has infected people – created the belief that they can behave just as indecently as they like….it is deplorable.

  23. We know that Gillard is completely reliant on Shorten, Ludwig and Swan’s ability to harness the AWU bloc vote behind her – that’s what her leadership depends on.
    Of course she hasn’t as yet worked out that Shorten is using her, and the minute she loses the election, he’ll mount his challenge for the Labor leadership.

  26. swamprat,

    To be frank (if one can use that term safely after MASH), I suspect that the influence of such people as De Bruyn – and she is the leader of a minority government, and has to balance with the utmost delicacy an inordinate number of dissonant desires.

    I think that it would be very difficult in such circumstances to give a simple explanation – given that that’s what the media demand – let alone a rational one.

  27. I’ve just realised that I’m doing an “adopt an ALP politician each week”.

    I have emailed every now and again, particularly when an ALP worthy has had to put up with particularly idiotic Noalition morons.

    I suggested to one that they take a Taser to the next Senate Estimates and got a very nice reply back. 🙂 I think she thought i was joking though…………..

  28. Hate a politician, despise a politician, and he will grow stronger.

    Laugh at him, and he is dead.

    Australia is laughing.

  32. Only four people have mentioned the happy news from the Rudd family. One poster congratulated them. Only people who regularly express disdain for Julia Gillard have mentioned it in a negative way.

    TLM’s nasty little snipe about the PM’s personal status does him very little credit but speaks volumes about him.

  33. fiona

    I have assumed that there was something behind that increasingly eccentric view she has on this. God even most Liberals in NSW upper house, i think, voted for gay marriage.

    But it does add to the ‘meme’ that the PM is dishonest and will do anything for power.

    Whatever the reasons, I do not respect her on this issue at all. I think when it comes to denying “rights” a proper explanation is required.

  34. ruawake @ 5145

    [ We need Govt ownership of telecommunications infrastructure, it is too costly too duplicate. But of course Howard looked at getting the best price for Telstra, not the best result for the country. ]

    So true. I had some involvement in Howard’s asset sales and the overwhelming consideration was to maximise proceeds. As a result we have the airports and other ongoing debacles to go with the Telstra F Up.

  35. imacca,

    [I have emailed every now and again, particularly when an ALP worthy has had to put up with particularly idiotic Noalition morons.]

    Hadn’t thought of the taser tactic, though it’s a good one 😆

    … erm, perhaps …

    but they are doing it tough, and the more that they hear from the GP – as opposed to the MSM – that WE THE PEOPLE think that they are on track the better!

    I hereby resolve to make an ALP pollie’s electorate office happy every day of the working week (now, how to do this without OH noticing 😉 )

  36. Tonights action in markets, including the action of gold, was inevitable and was always coming as a result of the non solution to the last crisis.

    Printing trillions, carrying a budget deficit over a trillion, increasing debt above 100% GDP, trying to get Germany to bail out all Europe and thus trash its own economy was and is kicking the can down the road. Inevtably China’s misallocation of stimulus funds lead to bubbles in the wrong areas and inflation in sensitive areas, it is slowing as well. Japan is going the route of more money printing.

    This was always going to happen, and the result eventually will be to hit the bottom that money printing last stopped being hit. It will take a little more time and maybe one or two more attempts at QE money printing by Bernanke.

    Tonight is just a little taste of what is in store eventually. US long bonds amazing, gold simple wacks on $50 in short time as safe places to put money are harder to find.

    More to come this next 12 months for sure.

  37. The Power Index on Joe de Bruyn:
    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/union-heavies/joe-de-bruyn
    [At the ALP’s national conference last November, a majority of delegates voted to amend the party platform to support same-sex marriage — an historic defeat for the SDA. Key Right factional figures — including Mark Arbib and Paul Howes — swung their support behind change, leaving de Bruyn clutching to a conscience vote as consolation.

    Cabinet member Kate Ellis, who is backed by the SDA, says she will vote for same-sex marriage when a bill comes before parliament later this year.

    Ordinary SDA members are also growing increasingly vocal in their demands for a say over their union’s position.

    “The SDA leadership is seriously out-of-step with its own members on this issue, and we should know,” John Kloprogge, a former SDA store delegate, and Brett Jones, an SDA member, wrote in Fairfax papers last year.

    “Before the SDA contributes any further to the debate about same-sex marriage, we call on it to survey its members. Until then, the SDA can only claim to speak on behalf of de Bruyn and his personal views. It has no mandate to speak for us.”]

  38. fiona @ 5707

    It’s worth it: the exhaled breath when the poor person in the electorate office realises that you are saying something nice is a joy in its own right.

    For what it’s worth, I don’t care whether I’m saying nice things to politicians or whoever: it’s about time that we give credit to anybody who does a service role if they do a damn’ fine job, whether they are MPs, the people who sell you train tickets, or what else. I loathe the whingeing culture that has infected Australia. I’d much rather tell people that they are doing a fantastic job. Is it really so difficult to be generous with praise?

    I agree wholeheartedly with that and try to practice it at every opportunity. It really does make life much more pleasant. I even do it with the much maligned ticked inspectors on Melbourne trains and we usually end up having a nice chat and go our separate ways smiling.

    I think the Electorate Office staff either can take it or don’t last.

  39. Swamprat,

    [Whatever the reasons, I do not respect her on this issue at all. I think when it comes to denying “rights” a proper explanation is required.]

    Fair enough.

    Would it sway your vote in a federal election sufficiently to your giving your preference to the “side” that won’t even allow a conscience vote?

  41. Dont cha just love our business leaders attitude??

    Abbott told to keep powder dry on workplace reform

    h­ttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/abbott-told-to-keep-powder-dry-on-workplace-reform/story-fn59noo3-1226380951154

    “In fact, my preference would be that he doesn’t stake a strong position before an election so he can deal with it after an election.”

    Essentially:

    “dont talk about it now and scare the horses so we can tell you what you will do after the election”.

    As a group, they have a fair percentage of grubs i thin.

  42. CO @ 5734

    Both parties have pillaged the public estate to fund services and election promises. They are so terrified of reforming and properly taxing.

    If they had any skill they would educate the correlation between taxes and services. But they squib it.

    The Labor Party is the most disappointing on this.

  43. drake @ 5715

    *Robert De Niro voice*

    You talkin’ to me?

    No drake, I recall you as pleasant and reasonable.

    The real test of ‘reasonable’ comes if you disagree on something so maybe we have not disagreed yet. 😉

  44. Saving the world through the power of supercillious pomposity can be tiring, even for greater mortals such as he, Gus.

  45. fiona

    haha I will never vote Liberal in my life. Never have never will. Although I came from a conservative voting family.

    Sometimes I have voted “informal” in that filled out half the card but refused to give any preference to wicked parties. As a result my vote is not counted even though i had given a few obvious preferences.

  49. Victoria @ 5145

    [ Trust you are enjoying your time in Italy. I have family in Italy, and know the difficult situation they find themselves in. I have cousins who are approaching forty, and have no means of Supporting themselves. Their parents provide them witih free accommodation and food. ]

    We are having a great time. Currently in Umbria on our way back to Nice in France after driving down to Sicily. Australians are everywhere including a wealthy business owner bleater from the Gold Coast complaining about the socialist Government penalising those trying to get ahead (superannuation changes was his concern).

  50. Seats the ALP need to win in order to win the next election:

    Boothby (SA) LIB 0.6%
    Hasluck (WA) LIB 0.6%
    Aston (VIC) LIB 0.7%
    Dunkley (VIC) LIB 1.1%

    Seats the ALP need to hold in order to win the next election:

    Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.3%
    Deakin (VIC) ALP 0.6%
    Greenway (NSW) ALP 0.9%
    Robertson (NSW) ALP 1.0%
    Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1%
    Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.1%
    Banks (NSW) ALP 1.5%
    La Trobe (VIC) ALP 1.7%
    Petrie (QLD) ALP 2.5%
    Reid (NSW) ALP 2.7%
    Lilley (QLD) ALP 3.2%
    Brand (WA) ALP 3.3%
    Capricornia (QLD) ALP 3.7%
    Lingiari (NT) ALP 3.7%
    Page (NSW) ALP 4.2%
    Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 4.2%
    Blair (QLD) ALP 4.2%
    Parramatta (NSW) ALP 4.4%
    Dobell (NSW) ALP 5.1%
    Rankin (QLD) ALP 5.4%
    Oxley (QLD) ALP 5.8%
    Werriwa (NSW) ALP 6.8%
    Barton (NSW) ALP 6.9%
    Richmond (NSW) ALP 7.0%
    Bruce (VIC) ALP 7.7%
    McMahon (NSW) ALP 7.8%

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