Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. 5% change in the TPP showson. That’s what I call momentum.

    Yeah where is Evan, he is normally here gloating by now.

  2. Hi Guys.

    HAve been lurking in the public gallery all night, hoping I’d have a good reason to log in.

    So. I’m here.

    Good goss eh? Trend, trend trend.

    One observation, if I may.

    The electorate have been having the doom & gloom thrown at them for over a year. The past month the carbon price etc payments have started rolling. The ads have been positive. I am not saying greed is the motivation so much as things are starting to look positive not negative out there in voterland.

    The other thing is the PM has not buckled. She has stood up to all Abbott’s nastiness, and he showed that nastiness in spades last week. Bare and ugly. He and Pyne.

    And while the punter might like a bit of sport, they HATE people being kicked when they’re down. Thomson cut a tragic figure last week and it affected people. And Abbott’s faux sympathy was as transparent as scottish glass.

    I reckon the elctorate has done two things. They’ve taken off their tunnel glasses and they’ve started to pull out their earplugs (which they’ve needed to drown out Abbott’s bellowing)

    If this is maintained or replicated in a fortnight, Abbott really is toast.

  3. [Yes I have been quoted in Hansard thanks for reminding me of this fact.

    If you want to see where I have been quoted, just reading Hansard.
    ]

    Someone who has been quoted in hansard would never challenge a pb prediction. They are all so scientific.

  4. We’re displaying a lot of hubris here, Bludgers, and are now pulled back to earth by the tweet by fiz. Labor has a way of being its own worst enemy.

    Sharon Grierson came out strongly today and told her colleagues to stop being so self interested with the wrangling over leadership and to get back to working as they should be. It must be hard for those who are not angling for change again.

  5. I am no Rudd supporter nor a Gillard supporter for that matter. I am not into personality cults and to be honest I don’t think either of them represent my thinking.

    But lets face it Abbott is so extreme and stupid and flaky but the ALP is incapable of politically destroying him.

    Why is the ALP so inept? Why can’t the ALP dominate such an appalling man (and his gang)?

    Please can someone more knowledgable about this give me a real explanation?

  6. That poll is as encouraging as Meguire Bob 🙂

    Considering the constant crap the government is dealing with at the moment… and the much feared “great big tax”… this is a very good result.

  7. [WTF? 54/46 would be a massive landslide loss that would be worse than 1996.]
    In the context of what has been happening this is a good result. Still a long way to go obviously but if ever there was a time a 60/40 result was on the cards this week was going to be it.

  8. [5% change in the TPP showson. That’s what I call momentum.

    Yeah where is Evan, he is normally here gloating by now.]
    What on earth are you going on about? The last Newspoll was 55/45. This new one is 54/46 which is within the margin of error. You are wanking yourself over nothing.

    That 59/41 poll before the budget was clearly an outlier because it doesn’t fit with the long term trend of around 55/45.

  9. [We’re displaying a lot of hubris here, Bludgers]

    BH, no hubris from me. i have been keeping the BISONs since the beginning of 2011 and letting them run wild and free.

  10. Swamprat

    1. they can’t communicate about the economy
    2. they don’t know how to sell policy
    3. they use clunky soundbites rather than carefully considered rhetoric (THERE IS A DIFFERENCE!!!!)

  11. [Please can someone more knowledgable about this give me a real explanation?]
    Yep, carbon tax, the media, the world economy and to a lesser degree Gillard.

  12. Seems cannot get the name even right,nudge nudge ,pakistanis cheat at cricket

    Rita Panahi‏@RitaPanahi

    Rumours that a certain labor MP…possibly @Yvettedathmp is changing sides. Wowee!

  13. Finns

    I gave you a brand new BISON on the last PB post. I am terribly dissapointed that you haven’t used it yet.

  14. From what I’ve read on twitter, an LNP person approached D’ath and she said no way. Some trolls on twitter are spruiking it for all it’s worth.

  15. [In the context of what has been happening this is a good result. Still a long way to go obviously but if ever there was a time a 60/40 result was on the cards this week was going to be it.]

    Exactly. And Abbott’s the one who has more to lose in the next few months, especially bearing in mind these changes (small for now, but again, much better than the reverse) are before the carbon price officially begins. Though it does make you wonder how these polls would be going if the news wasn’t always just ‘Gillard is so unpopular/Rudd is surely gonna come back!” bla bla bla…

  16. [What on earth are you going on about? The last Newspoll was 55/45. This new one is 54/46 which is within the margin of error. You are wanking yourself over nothing.]
    It wasn’t that long ago that Newspoll was 59 – 41.

  17. [What on earth are you going on about? The last Newspoll was 55/45. This new one is 54/46 which is within the margin of error. You are wanking yourself over nothing.

    That 59/41 poll before the budget was clearly an outlier because it doesn’t fit with the long term trend of around 55/45.]
    5% is 5%, stop being a twit.
    With the margin of error it could be 49.5-50.5!! Wowee!

  18. [It wasn’t that long ago that Newspoll was 59 – 41.]
    I addressed this poll! It was clearly an outlier because it doesn’t fit with the longer term trend!

    This new poll is just another terrible poll for Gillard.

  19. Gina’s butler, that little man, I’m red, he’s cross.

    He is in big, big trouble and the polls are showing it. Breaking all sorts of records for disapproval ratings. And now a bit of a laughing stock. His days are numbered if the ALP can slowly ‘do him in’. Still think there’s a lot more to come out of Ashby.

  20. Schnappi

    Changing sides? Or changing parties. If this rumour turns out to have some basis it would be good to see the Greens pick up another lower house seat.
    Just imagine the look on :monkey:’s face.

  21. [5% is 5%, stop being a twit.
    With the margin of error it could be 49.5-50.5!! Wowee!]

    Yep, and the ALP can still win the next election. Why not be positive?

  22. [Who cares if D’Ath has switched to Rudd.
    It’s the polls that only matter in this whole Ruddstoration BS.]
    D’Ath voted for Rudd in the Feb leadership ballot.

  23. Rita Panahi‏@RitaPanahi

    Rumours that a certain labor MP…possibly @Yvettedathmp is changing sides. Wowee!

    Now remember, if she denies it that just proves that it’s true. If she makes no comment, it’s confirmation. Even if it isn’t true, it’s still ok to talk about it in the media tomorrow.

    This just goes to show how divided and incompetent the ALP is blah blah election now yap yap…

  24. The poll isn’t good for Gillard, but it’s very bad for Abbott and that’s why Gillard needs to attack. The problem is the man, not the ball

  25. [I think Showy is just a stirrer of brown stuff.

    Nite All!]
    You’re only saying this because you want to chat with me during Speed Dating Friday.

  26. [The poll isn’t good for Gillard, but it’s very bad for Abbott and that’s why Gillard needs to attack. The problem is the man, not the ball]
    Why is it bad for Abbott? On these figures Abbott would become PM with about a 65 seat majority.

  27. [Now remember, if she denies it that just proves that it’s true. If she makes no comment, it’s confirmation. Even if it isn’t true, it’s still ok to talk about it in the media tomorrow. ]

    Maybe she could say that she’d could never support a party with a deranged chimpanzee as its leader.

  28. It’s probably hip pocket but I want to naively believe that fair minded folks believe in natural justice and know Abbott went too far in trying to destroy Thomson for base reasons and hence have punished him personally while not doing too much damage to the overall polling.

    I except I am a sentimental old fool for wanting to believe that.

  29. [Why is it bad for Abbott? On these figures Abbott would become PM with about a 65 seat majority.]

    He would have to survive an election campaign first. Polls are not elections.

  30. Thank you bluegreen and Gary

    Yes, i mean after all the years of comment, criticism, anguish over their “communication” skills why do they, in May 2012, stuff up their workers import programme announcement?

    I must admit, I am glad that a few more punters support them but I think the ALP is full of really really really stupid people.

    Maybe they put too many nudge nudge wink wink wankers forward as parliamentarians.

    I am really in despair.

    I am 60 years old and I am tired of living most of my life under right wing rule and I blame the ALP. I have most always voted ALP, though lately I have given votes to independents and Greens.

    I have zero confidence in the ALP anymore. I don’t blame Gillard, I think she is a hard working but pretty limited person way out of her depth. Show pony Rudd may improve things but he is more ego than commitment.

    They are really a lacklustre lot if appalling people like Abbott beats them.

  31. [He would have to survive an election campaign first. Polls are not elections.]
    OH SHIT! HE WOULD ONLY HAVE A 55 SEAT MAJORITY!

    And probably control of the Senate.

  32. With all of the cash being handed out and the blanket TV advertising, you’d have been amazed if there hadn’t been a lift for Labor in the last fortnight, albeit that it was at the expense of the Greens(the Liberal primary vote went up too).
    This just buys Gillard some more time, it’s no guarantee that she’s won the next election.

    The silence about today’s Essential Media Poll on the other hand is deafening – that doesn’t tally with the much heralded Gillard ascendency. 🙂

  33. Gotta love these movements within MOE…. gives the addicts something to hang onto and hang onto and do nothing, living in hope that the next pull of the handle will give them their jackpot. It paralyses action until it is too late.

    Look forward to the triumphalism (at 54/46 lol), the war has been won, victory is just around the corner. 🙂 But the poison is still in the system, she sits at the top and in the end will kill the host. In the meantime enjoy the wobbles in the polls that give hope to your despair. 🙂

  34. Shows On: D’ath voted for Gillard in late February – the only Labor lower house MP who voted for Rudd was Rudd himself.

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