Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,792 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Pegasus @ 5632

    This is as it has always been for years on PB.

    The only thing that changes is who is the object of the pack attack.

    The scapegoat who is attacked is invariably someone who is persistent in posting views, opinions and information that challenges the prevailing Laborite groupthink.

    That is a fair summary.

    I would also add that some of the attack lines have been workshopped in Franks slime pond before appearing here.

  3. Congrats bluegreen, once again poll bludgers superior research and analysis leads the MSM. Hope Oakes is gracious enough to send a thank you note to the bludger who dug out roonism.

  4. dont like Oakes’ final line but hey you cant please everyone…

    i hope Combet reads it and keeps up the good work. we might need him sooner rather than later. because whoever is next certainly won’t be an ‘old’ hand.

  5. I set up temporary twitter account and tweeted this to Oakes

    [@LaurieOakes do u remmber your 2001 Abbott interview when he said ‘ruinism’ is poisoning public life & economy http://tiny.cc/3pj5ew #auspol]

    He responded

    [ LaurieOakes ‏@LaurieOakes
    @bluegreen_aust I’d forgotten it.Thanks for the reminder.]

  6. [5641
    confessions

    briefly:

    I’m very well.

    Who do you think Labor will preselect to run against that do-nothing nobody Don Randall? Allannah’s gains need to be built on.]

    I haven’t heard anything. Allannah drew the short straw last time. I’ve always thought Randall was a bit of a Hansonite. At least, he was practicing his dog-whistles.

    His seat should be contestable for Labor, but the party is in weak shape at the moment. Do you have any thoughts?

  7. TAD I think we should adopt that one SOF.

    TAD often breathes fires into a strong gale and suffers blow back.

    Oops just realised Puff may not be happy with the dragon comparison. Sorry Puff.

  9. Allannah is one of my favourite politicians. She has intellect and energy and is completely up front about things. Perhaps she is too abrupt sometimes for her own good.

  10. Rossmore @ 5639

    Bemused, Machiavelli would say that from a position of relative weakness it’s generally safer to keep your head down and quietly build strength. You seem to positively relish the diametrically opposite approach. Kind of admirable in a kind of way I suppose, hell at times I enjoy your sardonic wit and defense of free speech, and quite often agree with you, but in this case think you’ve backed the wrong horse. Perhaps I’ll be proved wrong, in which case kudos to you. But if you’re wrong, I trust you will be generous enough to admit it. Time will tell no doubt.

    Wow, some kind words mixed into that.

    I must dig up my favourite Machiavelli quote for you but I am not familiar with what you attribute to Machiavelli.

    All I have ever done is admit to having a preference as far as leadership goes. But we shall all have to see what unfolds.

    I am used to being wrong. People who are never wrong have usually never done anything or never ventured an opinion.

  12. Laurie Oakes loves vaudeville. Combet’s everywhere man skit today was pure gold. Heard it on radio national on the drive home. Keatingesque, which is the highest praise. We need a song a week from the front bench, seriously.

  13. briefly @ 5645

    [I think Abbott has turned politics into a contest in which the score is kept in malice, spite, contempt and disgust. It shows up in lots of ways – but especially in the way people think, feel and express themselves about politics.]

    And from what Anna Burke said on ABC Melbourne Radio this morning it’s also playing out in her electorate, given the high level of vitriol that is being directed her way both by phone and by email/snail mail.

    BTW, even though I’m not in her electorate, I phoned her office this afternoon to commend her on her conduct of an extremely difficult position over the last few weeks, and to deplore the misconduct of those spiteful people who have used every shield to malign her.

  15. [LaurieOakes ‏@LaurieOakes
    @bluegreen_aust I’d forgotten it.Thanks for the reminder.]

    Next time you should demand some money for doing the media’s homework for them.

  16. bluegreen,

    It would seem that your campaign to undermine Abbott with the end result of Turnbull being re-installed as leader is paying dividends.

  18. its OK

    really

    laurie always writes articles based on anonymous gits sending him articles

    why last week you were claiming JG changed her style cos of you

    It gives me great merriment to see your inflated opinion of yourself

    you and bemused do make a nice couple

  19. [Next time you should demand some money for doing the media’s homework for them.]

    Usually in government its called ‘opposition research’

  22. Rossmore @ 5662

    Laurie Oakes loves vaudeville. Combet’s everywhere man skit today was pure gold. Heard it on radio national on the drive home. Keatingesque, which is the highest praise. We need a song a week from the front bench, seriously.

    Could have been better rehearsed. That has got to be about the hardest song ever to sing, but the point was certainly made in a memorable way.

    Nothing wrong with laughing at the rabble while delivering such mocking answers either. Someone mentioned a Fred Daly answer from 1975 the other night. I still remember it vividly. Fred was almost in stitches while delivering it and the house was in uproar. It certainly got loads of good publicity.

  23. Fairly horrible night on the financial markets….especially in Europe. Too much adrenaline….fear factors are very high.

  24. Look if BG can get Turnbull back as LOTO then I don’t care if he has an over-inflated opinion of his abilities. Keep it up BG.

  25. now the ALP just need to pull up the footage of those interview and turn it into a youtube show

    there is a set of 730 report, lateline and oakes interviews all on the same theme

  26. Thought Barry Jones was interesting on how to get new members enthused about joining the ALP:

    Join the Party and you can:

    – get stuck into refugees;

    – loyally support the private school system

    – have absolute devotion to the free market

    – give uncritical support to US foreign policy

    – refuse to allow any charter of rights for Australian citizens

    – support a low priority for research, science and the arts

    – do little for the environment

    Aren’t they that an arresting reasons to join the ALP?

    (I present this only to stimulate ideas 🙂

  28. bg

    next week I wait to hear how you have refined Obi’s approach and masterfully told Ld Leveson how to run his inquiry

    your skills are wasted here on PB

  29. Thanks David and Peg.

    Why this works for the ALP is twofold.

    One: Abbott 2001 is criticising carping negativity and no policies (Ie hypocrite)
    Two: Beazley lost with this strategy (ie political doubt)

  30. [5663
    fiona
    Posted Friday, June 1, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    And from what Anna Burke said on ABC Melbourne Radio this morning it’s also playing out in her electorate, given the high level of vitriol that is being directed her ……I phoned her office this afternoon to commend her on her conduct of an extremely difficult position over the last few weeks….]

    Good on you. Some solidarity goes a long way when you are under attack. Our politicians get belted mercilessly….they have a lonely role, I think.

  31. swamprat @ 5676

    Funny, we don’t do any of that at my branch. Instead we have speakers from “Labor for Refugees”, a CSIRO Scientist on Climate Change etc.

  32. swamprat,

    Did u write this list after listening to the Monthly SlowTV linked to by spur212?

    I have bookmarked the program to listen tomorrow, time permitting.

  33. fiona @ 5663

    I have the good fortune to be in Anna’s electorate. Well, at least until the next election when the new boundaries come into effect.

    She got some pretty favourable talk back comments as a result of that interview.

  34. Abbott’s negative approach to everything does seem to be reaching its use by date. It probably did some time back but the government keeps finding ways to take the spotlight off him. We may be seeing a turning point. Have to wait and see.

  35. [But it won’t be enough to save the government from election defeat. Abbott’s roonism skills, helped by the government’s uncanny ability to stuff up the politics of almost any situation, will see to that.]
    Oakes is so cock sure the government will lose. Geez I hope he comes a cropper.

  36. [5677
    guytaur

    briefly

    Hopefully the Irish vote for the Eurozone will calm things a little]

    3:2 in favour, guytaur

    But I think other things are driving the markets tonight….Spanish insolvency and capital flight, inevitable default by Greece, declining industrial output in China, all-time high unemployment in Europe, fading strength in the US economy…..the gathering gloom, sad to say.

  38. a minor point really but combet’s mangling of the everywhere man song in fact added to its charm. It came across as spontaneous and unrehearsed, if he’d sung it word perfect it would have had far less effect. You could almost hear the great public out there laughing along with combet’s uncertain memory of the actual words of the song.

  39. I wonder if someone in the govt will be ballsy enough to call Abbott, ‘Kim Beazley of the Liberal Party” to cement the meme.

  41. I guess most of you in here hated all of the media coverage the new addition to the Rudd family got today. 🙂

  42. Pegasus @ 5687

    bemused,

    As we have found out, Anna Burke is already having her stuff letterboxed according to the new boundaries.

    She still services the parts of the electorate she will lose too.

  43. Pegasus @ 5682

    Yes I did… I left out a couple ….

    My first discovery of SlowTV. Love ideas places. The Great Barry Jones is getting old, like everyone. I found all three speakers interesting. Anthony Green, Robert Manne and Barry.

  44. bluegreen @ 5689

    I wonder if someone in the govt will be ballsy enough to call Abbott, ‘Kim Beazley of the Liberal Party” to cement the meme.

    I can’t see it happening in parliament out of deference to Beazley’s feelings. Might get passed around quietly though or he might be accused of making the same mistake as Beazley.

  45. Pakistan and the USA move into a conflict zone
    From “Asia Times”
    ___________________________
    an interesting picture of the growing rift between these two countries….

    Putin will capitalize on this when he soon visits Pakistan,,and the Chinese F M has just done so

    Pakistan’s PM was snubbed by Obama in Chicago recently and he also copped a one hour harangue from Hilary Clinton…not happy Jan !!
    Now will come the payback….and the Kyber Pass is still closed and causing the USA great problems with removing”stuff” from Afghanistan

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/NF02Df03.html

  46. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    I guess most of you in here hated all of the media coverage the new addition to the Rudd family got today.
    ]

    Did it mean an extra vote in the caucus?

  47. Bemused @ 5681

    I was sort of quoting Barry Jones. He was being a bit sarcastic.

    Though I was briefly a member of the ALP. My experience is that branches live in a fantasy world where what we did had zero influence on the Labor Oligarchy that owned the party. We were just cannon fodder. 🙂

  50. Rudd the family man vs Gillard & her defacto partner – perhaps Julia should marry Tim? That might help her in the polls. 🙂

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