GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Gillard\’s disapproval rating is 60%, and yet some here think she should be re-elected!
Check the convo Poss and Simon. He really is a newbie and Poss is doing his best http://twitter.com/#search?q=Pollytics.
In other news… http://www.smh.com.au/national/court-rules-against-turn-back-the-boats-policy-20120224-1tti3.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Centaur
There was one recently. It was even on heading in right vs wrong direction which surprised me. I thought it would be more negative.
I think most would agree that John Button played a big part in helping the ALP win in 2007 yet the baby of one of Kooyong favorite daughters took priority
[The Ultimate enemy is Abbott and the Coalition Party, this is something that even Rudd knows.]
Rudd would be a more formidable opponent for Abbott than Gillard because most people think Gillard is dishonest so they don\’t believe a word she says.
Are you referring to the song “cause I’m heading in the right direction” Gusface. by the way I’ll take that bet, Swan gone at next election
I shan’t repeat tweets now but Poss says he has no idea about whether these polls will affect caucus thinking on Monday.
centaur
yup
renee really iz a goddess
[Rudd would be a more formidable opponent for Abbott than Gillard because most people think Gillard is dishonest so they don\’t believe a word she says.]
Because a good amount of people have been conned. 😛 And who knows, maybe that’ll start to change a little in upcoming weeks. Also worth noting that Rudd was stealing Abbott’s insults during his press conference today… ‘faceless men’, Gillard lied about the carbon price etc: Great Labor man there…
thanks Diog- more poignant that the other shite. Only one leader has lost at an election when the country was heading in the right direction. Who was? for a bonus point.
This little black duck
[poroti,
Yes, I’ve seen that. Pretty, isn’t it?!]
It is a good antidote to greenie “nature is kumbaya” crap.
The thuggish faction that supports Gillard will have them continue their over the top personal smearing of Rudd in every forum that they can, and for as long as they can in the hope that eventually it will have some effect.
They will destroy themselves in the processes but their spite and vindictiveness drives them. They made a massive mistake in installing Gillard, she has failed the leadership test and has bungled too many things. Only a compliant Senate has allowed things to happen at all.
They thug faction(s) don’t want Rudd back as he destroys their power again, and that is what this is all about.
Gillard is most certainly finished as these and previous polls indicate.
The manner of their treatment of Rudd since knifing him and in recent times really gives him licence to do anything. He owes no loyalty to this bunch of thugs and servants. Certainly many of those Labor voters supporting him would support him still if moved out of Labor.
But he will endure, and put up with their constant smearing for a while longer. But in over egging the pudding they not only risk losing Rudd but others with him as Labor turns itself into a real cesspit of factional malice.
Gillard will be replaced. Rudd will probably challenge then. If he is still the most popular option, and they still choose another, then he can simply leave the party, bring on a by election, or simply sit on the cross bench, since Labor will be entirely composed of factional aristocratic control, a worthless beast, with no ideology beyond maintaining the power of the factions.
Tone will man handle Rudd just like he did in early 2010
This is an interesting summary:
[What we know so far – weighted average of polls: 55/41Rudd vs. Gillard among ALP voters, 58/38 Rudd vs. Abbott, 43/46 Gillard vs Abbott]
https://twitter.com/#!/Pollytics/status/173047655067435008
TP what do you say to the public servants that found Rudd’s office dysfunctional?
[ This little black duck
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink
smithe,
I just loved how bigger the bangs got through the seven (?) books. I donated all those paperbacks to my science fiction mad son.]
They were fun youthful escapism so far as I can recall. I read them 40-odd years ago.
centaur
As a guess Howie?
[Rudd would be a more formidable opponent for Abbott than Gillard because most people think Gillard is dishonest so they don\’t believe a word she says.]
The thing is with Gillard is that the people have the evidence of their own eyes and ears of her dishonesty and treacherousness. She cant fudge it, cant use Howardisms to twist out of it. She has been caught with her pants down.
[Because a good amount of people have been conned. 😛 And who knows, maybe that’ll start to change a little in upcoming weeks.]
Fat chance of that.
Australians have made up their mind on Gillard. They dislike her so much that they are willing to vote for Tony Abbott and hand the Coalition a 1996 style landslide.
THAT gives you some idea of how deep seated the hatred of Gillard is.
I am NOT saying it is fair or reasoned, but that is just how it is. Some politicians just never connect with the public at large. Gillard is one of them.
centaur009
[thanks Diog- more poignant that the other shite. Only one leader has lost at an election when the country was heading in the right direction. Who was? for a bonus point.]
Paul Keating.Check out the numbers
Speaking of big bangs, here’s one for HHGG fans:
Eccentrica Gallumbits, “The Triple-Breasted Whore of Eroticon Six”, describes Zaphod as “The best bang since the Big One.”
There’s a bit of a mention of the Heart of Gold around there. Some here may recognise the ref.
[Tone will man handle Rudd just like he did in early 2010]
When Rudd was still leading in the polls…
Look at that Possum summary, Rudd is more popular than both Abbott and Gillard.
Like the Button article, the Oakes piece today is pretty rich in insight, but I find this passage especially revealing:
[The author suggests that “for the PM, all this activity was a way of forestalling the need for decisions he simply found too difficult to make”. Rudd, he writes, “needed all these ancillary debates to avoid making decisions about the big things everyone knew needed to be sorted: tax, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and asylum seekers”.
It was through the negotiations over carbon pricing that “we learnt that Kevin Rudd would never have that ability of all successful long-term leaders and that is to go into a defensive crouch and absorb a few days of punches to hold a position that would serve him well in the longer term.
The PM had a reflexive fear of even momentary unpopularity, so that he became an easy target for every lobbyist in town”. It says that, despite Rudd’s reputation as a policy wonk, “this was something we never, ever saw behind closed doors. His instinct was invariably for the politics of a policy problem.
“His most common put-down of officials and his own policy wonks was: ‘That’s a fine idea, but how do I explain it on Today Tonight?’
“I suspect he simply didn’t like the way officials thought – of practicalities, long-term consequences, consistency with other policies.
“These all became an unnecessary burden in his management of the politics and the media cycle. Nearing the end, he seemed to take each piece of considered policy advice as a personal affront or thinly veiled invitation for him to commit political suicide”.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/revealed-why-they-hate-kevin-rudd-so-much/story-fn56baaq-1226280973899?sv=f85e1954fde230d85d403563fa274074
Greentard yes Rudd was in front but his lead was slipping and he was struggling after the back down on the ETS and the Oceanic Viking
Has anyone received a reply from their local MP after asking them to vote a particular way?
I haven\’t (yet).
ducky
well remember istening to the bbc radio hhgttg on jj
fun times
sorry distracted at the moment.
But
[58/38 Rudd vs. Abbott, 43/46 Gillard vs Abbott]
stunning.
[Greentard yes Rudd was in front but his lead was slipping and he was struggling after the back down on the ETS and the Oceanic Viking]
I agree his polls had come down from the stratosphere.
What I don\’t accept is that his polls have been anywhere near as bad as Gillard\’s polls. Gillard has not had 1 or 2 bad polls. She has had 12 – 13 consecutive months of bad polls.
In fact, the last 4 months have been some of the best polls. Those polls only show her losing a landslide of 1996 proportions! Her polls before that would\’ve probably resulted in the Coalition winning majorities in both houses.
TP – So what would you say to the public servants that found Kevin’s office difficult to work with or don’t you agree with their professional judgement
[ Oakeshott Country
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink
Gee i haven’t heard “i have voted Labor for n>30 years but after x I will never vote for them again” for at least 10 days.]
Haven’t you? It’s all over teh MSM blogs on a daily basis. Plus, I think there was a bit of it on here from our wingnut friends over the last day or two. You must have missed it.
If the number of such threats I’ve heard over the years were accurate, Labor would have hit minor party status a decade or so ago and would have disappeared altogether in 2010.
Why is it that wingnuts always want to pass themselves off as True Believers, albeit piss*d-off ones? Is it some sort of status thing? You know, keeping-up with the Whitlams, or what?
Ducky
[There’s a bit of a mention of the Heart of Gold around there. Some here may recognise the ref.]
The Infinite Improbability Drive has long been at the heart of the Finny and Boers
scambusiness model.Well, well. Looks like the polls broadly back the Rudd move. In fact, I sense the backfire of Swan, Crean et al in these numbers.
Like anyone gives a crap if the PM gave you lot a hard time. LOL! You just look like a bunch of privileged whingers.
The public just flipped you the bird. Id like to see numers on “Should Rudd have gone in harder with his ministers?”. The swing is in!
True Greentard Rudd’s poll numbers were better than Gillard’s poll numbers even at their peak but out of fairness to Gillard the last 12 months would have been hard for any leader and just as we saw in the late 1990s Howard was at his lowest during the introduction of the GST yet the Liberals held firm
The Oceanic Viking was a fair indication of his inability to make a quick decision.
Any decision would have been better than to let the situation fester, humanitarily and politically.
The Minerals Super Profits Tax and the CPRS were two other examples of his inability to close a deal.
Anyone who thinks he was / would be a better PM than Julia Gillard …
[Tone will man handle Rudd just like he did in early 2010]
Don’t forget that the factions had been working for a year to undermine Rudd via the media, but even still he turned it all around into positive territory 52/48. And what was it, one negative poll. Whereas how many years has Gillard been negative.
Rudd got the better of Abbott, slaughtered him in debate, and public were getting behind Rudd in his fight with the mining industry….who through their union boss mates and up the parliament members, help precipitate the midnight treachery. Bring their long plan to an end, but still with no reason.
[ rishane
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink
In other news… http://www.smh.com.au/national/court-rules-against-turn-back-the-boats-policy-20120224-1tti3.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter%5D
Oops, there goes the boatphone.
TP Really, I recall the polls heading south therefore please remind me which polls showed Rudd winning public support over the miners.
I supported the original tax but recall the public were mostly against or dis-interested
poroti,
I’m not quite sure whether they are up to driving the Hotblack Desiato, should they find themselves at Milliways.
[Tone will man handle Rudd just like he did in early 2010]
What, like when Rudd tore him three fresh ar***oles in the health debate, and his numbers collapsed?
Why the self-delusion? There’s no question Rudd can do Abbott in.
Why not just say the truth: youd rather lose with GIllard, and keep the party as you know it.
Might get a guernsey in QT next week.
[Rudd would be a more formidable opponent for Abbott than Gillard because most people think Gillard is dishonest so they don\’t believe a word she says.]
Most people (including me) clearly thought Rudd was the best thing since sliced bread once too.
Times change. Facts are exposed and illusions shattered. Minds change.
OK maybe yours doesn’t, but your average person’s usually does when confronted with the facts.
Most people have the sense to come in out of the rain.
Eventually.
Tonight my yoghurt doesn\’t have a hair in it.
Lefty e In early 2010 Abbott was man handling Rudd and yes Rudd beat him on health but on the issues grabbing the headlines Tone was ahead on points.
If Rudd was so good then why did his polls start fulling in 2009 into 2010, simple he had started to lose the political debate
I thought making sexual aspertions meant getting banned. Has Greentard been binned already?
[Most people (including me) clearly thought Rudd was the best thing since sliced bread once too.
Times change. Facts are exposed and illusions shattered. Minds change.
OK maybe yours doesn’t, but your average person’s usually does when confronted with the facts.]
No, this is just wishful thinking.
Gillard has never had the authority of the role of PM because of the way she got the job and fact she couldn\’t win a clear Labor majority.
Have a look at her poll ratings. The populace has just given up on her.
It may not be fair, but that\’s how things are. The public isn\’t coming back. They don\’t understand why she knifed Rudd, and they certainly don\’t accept the carbon tax after she said she wouldn\’t introduce it. The horse has bolted.
gtard
glad u started eating it, rather than using it as a lubricant
This little black duck
[poroti,
I’m not quite sure whether they are up to driving the Hotblack Desiato, should they find themselves at Milliways.]
Sadly I was with Marvin and as he said “The first ten million years were the worst, and the second ten million years, they were the worst too. The third ten million I didn’t enjoy at all”
[Well, well. Looks like the polls broadly back the Rudd move. In fact, I sense the backfire of Swan, Crean et al in these numbers.
Like anyone gives a crap if the PM gave you lot a hard time. LOL! You just look like a bunch of privileged whingers.
The public just flipped you the bird. Id like to see numers on “Should Rudd have gone in harder with his ministers?”. The swing is in!]
You read some of the articles coming out? Rudd’s problems as PM went way deeper than ‘giving ministers a hard time’. The polls are there mainly to justify the media narrative after Rudd loses, which will most likely be about how Labor ignores ‘the people’s choice’, or some crap like that.
No mexican – the polls simply normalised. A stellar domination of Nelson, Turnbull and Abbott couldnt be maintained forever.
Its was pure mischief to call that a terminal poll decline. A terminal poll decline looks different, it looks like…well, like Gillard’s numbers.