Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Will Kevin go to the back bench ? But what back bench ? My sauce bottle said that he will join the Fiberal party and challenge for LOTO with Mal as treasurer and Mesma as his Deputy . Look out Tony. Rudd will take his fan club with him.

  2. Unfortunately people like @greentard and @TP will never change their minds on Rudd.

    Thus Australia be damned, and thus Major projects like NBN will be damned.

  3. Its already being done in an attempt to influence Labor Caucus votes, though I doubt it’ll do much. See for example the main headlines on the SMH and DT sites:

    RUDD STILL PEOPLE’S PICK (SMH)
    RUDD THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN SAVE ALP (DT)

  4. [I thought making sexual aspertions meant getting banned. Has Greentard been binned already?]
    Hi Mr Puff, I was simply responding to Mr Growler\’s claim that I have anal sex with cucumbers. He has since gone on to make a similar claim with relation to pineapples.

    Does those assertions count as a \”sexual aspertions (sic)\”?

  5. [Thus Australia be damned, and thus Major projects like NBN will be damned.]

    Actually, the Rudd govt introduced the NBN. So what are you talking about? Unless Abbott wins – and youve seen the relative rudd/ Gillard numbers there.

    Do you guys want to win, and defend the NBN, or not?

  6. [No, they’re genuine polls. But the results are gonna get spun like all hell.]
    The poll results are plain for all to see. Kevin Rudd is more popular with voters than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott.

    I appreciate that this is only important if Labor wants to win the next election. If Labor is happy to lose the next election simply to stop Kevin Rudd becoming Prime Minister again, then these poll results do not matter.

  7. poroti,

    I’m a big Marvin fan. The lugubrious voice on radio was wonderful.

    Wiki tells me it was Stephen Moore. Don’t recognise the name.

  8. [Rishane – the public doesnt care. Not one iota.

    Accept that fact, and youll start seeing the lay of the land more clearly.]

    Maybe they don’t care now, but its too early to say that’s always going to be the case. Its not the average person’s fault that they were sold a myth.

  9. [503 gusface
    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 1:40 am | Permalink
    gtard

    glad u started eating it, rather than using it as a lubricant]

    Don’t encourage him Gussie.

  10. Well put, Greentard.

    Come one guys, swallow your pride. Here’s a deal: keep Gillard to 2013, and if she comes good, great.

    If she doesnt, move on! Rudd can beat Abbott, he really can.

    I realise you hate Rudd, but Dont TELL me you’d prefer ABbott. I wont believe you.

  11. [You read some of the articles coming out? Rudd’s problems as PM went way deeper than ‘giving ministers a hard time’. The polls are there mainly to justify the media narrative after Rudd loses, which will most likely be about how Labor ignores ‘the people’s choice’, or some crap like that.]
    The public don\’t care that Rudd gave ministers and public servants a hard time.

    Most of the public don\’t like the people who were ministers, such as Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan. The public thinks these sorts of people deserve a hard time because they aren\’t good at their jobs.

    Also the public generally has a dislike for the public service who they perceive as too highly paid and too unproductive.

    Rudd just happens to have a gift in that he is perceived as likeable by a large section of the general public. They also seem to feel he was treated very unfairly by Julia Gillard, they also don\’t like the fact that now a range of ministers that htey consider incompetent (e.g. Wayne Swan) is now for some reason attacking Kevin Rudd (who is far more popular than both Gillard and Swan).

    This is why these attacks on Rudd won\’t really effect his popularity, and will just reinforce a view that Swan and Gillard are just scared that Rudd will become PM again.

  12. I don’t hate Kevin and I have never hinted anything of the sort, I just know talking to people in the public and private sector that have had dealings with his office that it could have been run better.

  13. [Most of the public don\’t like the people who were ministers, such as Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan. The public thinks these sorts of people deserve a hard time because they aren\’t good at their jobs.]

    Which is ironic because Rudd wasn’t good at his job. He had some achievements, yes (and those shouldn’t be forgotten), but to get things to the chaotic state they did within less than three years takes some serious problems.

  14. [Which is ironic because Rudd wasn’t good at his job. He had some achievements, yes (and those shouldn’t be forgotten), but to get things to the chaotic state they did within less than three years takes some serious problems.]
    Yes, but that is the thing. Politics is a lot about perception!

    For many voters Rudd just seems more genuine. He is a bit dorky / geeky, a bit boring, a bit ordinary, but many voters find that kind of comforting. This is reflecting in the polling that shows Rudd more popular than Gillard and Abbott.

    Gillard may be a fantastic administrator with a superior legislative record to Kevin Rudd, but for voters THIS DOES NOT MATTER, because they DON\’T BELIEVE A WORD SHE SAYS.

    Now I suggest to you that ideally Labor needs BOTH Rudd and Gillard working together as a team to win the next election. But this will not happen while Gillard is leader. Kevin Rudd needs to be the \”face of the government\”, even if Gillard plays a central role in running the administration.

    Again, I have no malice towards Gillard as a person, it is simply that she is dragging brand Labor down. Kevin Rudd is one of the most popular politicians in the country, he is more than likely the only politician in federal parliament capable of winning the next election for Labor.

  15. [Wow. Another leak of absolutely no interest to the public.]
    I like the part in the story that says:
    [But Ms Gillard\’s supporters are likely to seize on the leaked briefing to claim Mr Rudd set in train the process to scrap the policy and it was wrong to sheet all the blame home to Ms Gillard.]
    Gillard supporters won\’t need to seize the leak when most likely they leaked it to the journalist in the first place!

  16. [The Canadians had a program on TV You Can’t Do That on Television shown on the ABC]
    And if someone said \”I don\’t know\” they got a bucket of green slime on their head.

    From memory Alanis Morissette was on that show.

  17. [For many voters Rudd just seems more genuine. He is a bit dorky / geeky, a bit boring, a bit ordinary, but many voters find that kind of comforting. This is reflecting in the polling that shows Rudd more popular than Gillard and Abbott.

    Gillard may be a fantastic administrator with a superior legislative record to Kevin Rudd, but for voters THIS DOES NOT MATTER, because they DON\’T BELIEVE A WORD SHE SAYS.

    Now I suggest to you that ideally Labor needs BOTH Rudd and Gillard working together as a team to win the next election. But this will not happen while Gillard is leader. Kevin Rudd needs to be the \”face of the government\”, even if Gillard plays a central role in running the administration.]

    I think a lot of it is people having fond memories of 2007 and buying the various spin lines about Rudd being ‘Mr Popular’. Its like what David Marr said on Lateline though–the polls are merely hypothetical, and you have to consider that if he got back in, he’d be torn apart for a plethora of reasons. And for what? A poll boost for a fortnight or two? Of course popularity is important, but its just cynical to say you should worry about nothing else.

  18. Michelle is balancing on the barbed wire, yet again:

    Kevin Rudd says he can win the voters, she can’t. Julia Gillard says she runs a functional government, and his was shambolic. Both are right. Caucus members face an invidious choice. Whatever they do — and at this point they are expected to re-elect Gillard — it will be a disaster. In less than five years, thanks mainly to two leaders who have been bad in very different ways, this Labor government has become almost as discredited as the Whitlam one all those years ago.

    h­ttp://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/unsavoury-way-to-sort-out-a-feud-20120223-1tqnq.html

    but still manages “Julia pissed in my beer!”

  19. [I don’t hate Kevin and I have never hinted anything of the sort, I just know talking to people in the public and private sector that have had dealings with his office that it could have been run better.]
    Yes it is clear that it was not well run.

    But I strongly suspect it will be different the second time around (when Gillard resigns late this year) because Rudd will govern knowing that his party will have no problem necking him if he starts acting like a dictator again.

  20. Would someone like to send Poss some of the HQ stuff, quick-smart:

    Possum Comitatus
    Question isnt if caucus will catch up for self preservation, but when (even if there’s some loons that would rather oppo benched than Rudd)

  21. Metioned. What seems like years ago.
    George of the enormous surname

    Could be Megalogenis

    Richard Fidler downloadable on your pod etc
    Too die for

  22. [But I strongly suspect it will be different the second time around (when Gillard resigns late this year) because Rudd will govern knowing that his party will have no problem necking him if he starts acting like a dictator again.]

    His entire career to this point suggests him changing now is very unlikely.

  23. [But I strongly suspect it will be different the second time around (when Gillard resigns late this year) because Rudd will govern knowing that his party will have no problem necking him if he starts acting like a dictator again.]

    This presumes a level of self perceptiveness in Rudd that just doesn’t exist.

  24. [And for what? A poll boost for a fortnight or two? Of course popularity is important, but its just cynical to say you should worry about nothing else]
    Of course there are other concerns.

    But see, when a leader is so unpopular as Gillard has been for a year, then it doesn\’t matter what else she does because people will always mark her down just based on an assumption she is being deceptive.

    If you put Rudd back in he would probably get renewed goodwill because a fair chunk of voters still don\’t understand why he got booted in the first place.

  25. Greentard it is true that some people do lean from the past, Robert Menzies was an example of a polly that was a flop in his first term but came back better for it.

  26. [Accept that fact, and youll start seeing the lay of the land more clearly.]

    Labor should stick to substance and eschew the polls for now. We are halfway through a parliamentary term. The only people carrying on about polls are the opposition and the Rudd Cult.

  27. [Gillard has never had the authority of the role of PM because of the way she got the job…]

    Lord, not that old chestnut.

    It’s almost medieval. In fact, it is medieval.

    In days of old when knights were bold and someone was born ‘illegitimate’, they were never adjudged quite as good as their ‘genuine’ brothers and sisters. No matter what they did, no matter what they achieved, Sir FitzGillard just wasn’t up to par with Sir Gillard. He could slay dragons, rescur maidens and walk on water…but his birth would always hold him back. He was…..ugh….illegitimate.

    Such was the state of affairs in the 14th century.

    Of course it’s now the 21st Century and a lot of the old 14th Century truisms have gone out of favour. Burning witches, the certainty that the earth is flat, the knowledge that plague is caused by noxious vapours……these sorts of ideas just don’t have the grip anymore they once had on people’s minds.

    Nor does ‘illegitimacy’, one election removed.

    I don’t think any, bar the true medieval hold-outs amongst us out there wingnut land (2GB) now give a toss about how Gillard come by the job.

    Further, even they find it hard to prosecute the ‘she’s a lesser leader’ argument in circumstances where she’s fought and won an election in her own right since taking office.

    As for exercising the authority of PM, it’s pretty hard to argue that one. She’s chaired Cabinet. She’s appointed and fired Ministers. She’s handed-out portfolios. She’s led the Government on the floor of Parliament. She’s led debates as leader of the Government.

    Hell, even Abbott recognises that she is, in fact, the Prime Minister and exercises power as such.

    Sad to say, but those who continue to prattle on about the PM’s supposed ‘illegitimacy’ really are lost medievalists in a world they no longer understand.

  28. [This presumes a level of self perceptiveness in Rudd that just doesn’t exist.]
    Well as Richo said today. Gillard can\’t win; Rudd can\’t govern.

    But governing can at least be learned, whereas voters have just completely given up on Gillard so she has no hope of winning.

    There is no way Rudd could get away with things he got away with after he won the election last time, so there you go, immediately he would have to approach governing completely differently.

  29. [If you put Rudd back in he would probably get renewed goodwill because a fair chunk of voters still don\’t understand why he got booted in the first place.]

    I imagine if that happened you’d mysteriously start seeing articles about how he undermined Gillard and wasn’t she hard done by, even when you don’t factor in the problems with forming/running government in the first place….Rudd gets a lot of his current good press because he’s not the one in power, and he’s probably too ego-driven to see that.

  30. [Greentard 533

    Shockingly, I agree with your sentiment.]
    Thanks. It was one of my better posts.
    [Greentard it is true that some people do lean from the past, Robert Menzies was an example of a polly that was a flop in his first term but came back better for it.]
    There you go.

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