Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest result from ever-perverse Morgan face-to-face series has Labor continuing to perform strongly, with their primary vote at 37 per cent against 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 14.5 per cent for the Greens. Morgan’s headline two-party preferred figure, which is based on respondents’ own allocation of their preferences, has the Coalition ahead 52-48. But if you allocate preferences as per the last election result, which usually gives you the best result provided your primary vote figures are reasonable to begin with, Labor actually comes out 51.5-48.5. This result combines the previous two weekends of Morgan’s regular polling, from a collective sample of 2005. As is generally the case with Morgan face-to-face, your best bet is to take it with a grain of salt and wait for the Nielsen and Newspoll phone polls and Essential Research online poll which should be with us on Sunday evening or Monday. I was rather hoping Morgan would treat us to a phone poll conducted in the middle of the week, as it does from time to time, but no such luck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

888 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. [Gillard did lurch to the right especially on asylum seekers, the mining tax (the original raised a lot more money), climate change, you name it.]

    Not so simple. First, the difference between Rudd’s carbon price and Gillard’s carbon price is that only one of them is law, and even though hers is imperfect, its generally accepted to be better than his was. I won’t argue the mining tax, but it sounds like Rudd hadn’t done a good job of putting it together in the first place. As for asylum seekers, the only mention Rudd made of it today was to say he thinks we need more adequate ‘security’, rather than some big humanitarian appeal.

  3. fess
    [I’m reminded of what Mumble says about Rudd: that (wtte) he’s Machiavellian and calculating.]
    I’m reminded of what my PNG soldiering, working-class, FIL said:

    “Rudd’s a dickhead, just like Howard, don’t vote for him”

  10. [Where’s your bloody officail entry in the Kevenge Sweepstake ?]
    I\’m not sure on which date Gillard will resign, but I think it will be a Sunday.

  11. In three months Rudd will be Mark Latham’s chief competitor for Mr Angry Australia. All huff and puff, but Latham has a ton more interity even if he goes OTT occasionally. At least he quit and walked away.

  12. The Liberal trolls on here continue to put out their lies about the procedure of the leadership ballot. Show me the evidence from the last 5 leadership ballots that Caucus members did not have a secret ballot? Who has said that they had to show their ballot paper? I have received a reply to an email of mine from Melissa Parke who says that it is a secret ballot and she will not be publicizing her vote.
    Stop emulating your hero Abbott’s lying. Stop the lies.

  13. [One of the things most disturbing me about this whole episode is how much sense Latham is suddenly making.]
    Perhaps if he hates both protagonists equally then he can give a balanced view.

  14. This little black duck
    [Molotov Cocktail

    Ingredients:

    1 1/2 oz Vodka
    Float 1 splash 151 proof rum
    Mixing instructions:

    Pour a shot of vokda (preferably Russian), float the 151, light, blow out, and take the shot down.]
    Try the Russia version of the Bloody Mary as taught to me by a genuine crazy Russian.
    1) Bottle of vodka and large tumbler glasses in freezer
    2) Tomato juice in fridge
    3) Half fill large tumblers with tomato juice
    4) Take vodka from freezer and carefully pour vodka into tumbler using the the back of a broad blade knife so as to create two layers.
    5) To the cry of Davai ! skol. -25 C vodka followed by the soothing tomato juice.

  15. [ Haydn
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink
    TP

    “you imagine it would take off if he were actually leader”

    No, if he were actually leader then the Coalition voters who are artificially inflating his popularity would quit the pretense and his figure would drop.]

    Yes. This is particularly evident from the fact that (at least according to this poll) 57% say they want an early election if Rudd assumes labor leadership.

    Now surely these people don’t want an election just so they can give Rudd-The-Restored a big sloppy kiss at the ballot box.

    It’s rather more likely, isn’t it, that they want the opportunity to (to use TP’s expression) ‘knife him’ themselves?

  17. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  19. [Greentard
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    I bet Julia Gillard is very happy right now that she doesn\’t have to face a primary election. Rudd would win the Labor nomination easily. Gillard would be lucky to end up with 30%. ]

    Somebody ought to tell Hawker we haven’t got such a system yet.

    By the way, heard radio I/V with Mike Kelly re this strategy. He said his office and fellow MPs had been swamped with SMSs and emails. Some are unsigned (ignored), some abusive, the Hawker-type ones seem machine generated. Of the individual ones, most urged Gillard, where he was staying.

  20. [I think you’ll find he said “I intend to challenge” – that gives him an out clause]

    Well spotted jen.

    True it is that there’s every chance that he’ll pull the pin on nominating. Let’s face it, he’s got form in that regard. He’s certainly going to need a big serving of vegemite to steel himself for the hiding he’s obviously going to get.

    On the other hand (as La Grattan would say) he’s stuck his neck out this far and pulling it back-in now would se him finished as a leadership aspirant in any event.

    Still, if he does go through with it and does go to a ballot, I’ll stick with my 23.

  21. When I spoke to Champion’s office this afternoon, the PA just keep saying, “I know” “I know” “I know”. Sounded like he had heard it all many times.

    It also sounded like he agreed, to be honest.

    By the way, any chance TP in particular is going to stop banging on about the factions in relation to the ballot? It is a FREE VOTE, as evidenced by the fact that Champion is supporting Rudd when his long-time mentor – and factional boss Don Farrell – is voting for Gillard.

    If there was any factional pressure happening, this is where you would see it; in SA and amongst people like Champion.

    The other thing that Champion’s vote suggests is that the factional bosses aren’t breaking into a sweat about this. They know Rudd will NEVER have the numbers in caucus, so there is no need to put pressure on in the first place.

  22. “Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people.”

    This leadership challenge has plenty of discussion of people, some discussion of events, and almost no discussion of ideas. Welcome to the modern Labor party – tearing itself apart over whether to stick with the technocrat who “gets things done” – “things” being the implementation of unimaginative soft-right policies, or to change to the vain, insincere narcissist, who can win elections but only on the promise of victory for its own sake and the spoils that come with it.

    And then you have the barrackers on websites like this one. Choosing a side and becoming hysterical as if they were watching a football match – abusing the media the way they would abuse a referee.

    Oh, how it depresses me.

  24. Jenauthor @ # 333

    “Rudd being an incompetent administrator can be excused to a point – but a self-interested traitor who betrayed his party … overtly – that is beyond the pale. And for ANY member of caucus to be supporting him is unconscionable.’

    Very true Jen.

  25. Please put me down for (0) zero votes for Rudd because he won’t challenge when the final number gets tallied before Monday 10AM. They will find that even the declared 17 would have shrunk or are not assured. Better to be thought of as a fool, than to prove it.

    The reason it will shrink is because his narrative has ‘internal inconsistencies’, to quote Gillard. His platform is essentially to promise further destabilization and turmoil, if you cut through all the tea-party populist crap. Totally unsustainable and unsaleable.

    So put me down for Zero for refusing to enter the starting gates.

  26. “Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people.”

    This leadership challenge has plenty of discussion of people, some discussion of events, and almost no discussion of ideas. Welcome to the modern Labor party – tearing itself apart over whether to stick with the technocrat who “gets things done” – “things” being the implementation of unimaginative soft-right policies, or to change to the vain, insincere narcissist, who can win elections but only on the promise of victory for its own sake and the spoils that come with it.

    If you think that’s bad, you should head over to the Liberal Party some time. They’ve done nothing but discuss people for about two years. I believe political journalists exclusively discuss people and have done for some time now. They wouldn’t know an idea if it came up and bopped them on the nose. Events for them are merely an entree for discussion of people.

    Still – if you’ve got an ideas to put forward, go for it. If you knock over that ennui.

  27. [Diogenes
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    I will tolerate criticising me for voting liberal but bagging Veuve?????

    I agree with fess. Veuve is pretty crass champagne.

    Had a les Mesnil Blanc de Blanc Grand Cru tonight.

    Much better and more interesting and cost much the same.]

    I go for the brown champagne myself: Coopers Green, James Squire Golden or Amber, when I can get it.

  29. [Wonder how marginal seat people are going view those Rudd/Gillard support figures from Labor voters. How many will simply leave if Rudd is rolled. There must a percent or two who will abandon them if there preferred choice Rudd is rolled.

    Blood bath coming.]

    20 months

  37. Well off to collect my Dogs poo and go visit Rudd’s house. Will leave it out the front for the media scrum (scum ) pack to stand in. Greentard must be worried about Abbott getting knifed in the back , cause he knows that he will get flogged by our PM in 2013. They are getting very unhinged.

    I’ve found a truck load of chicken-poo works, just ask danny frawley

  38. OK guys. In the PB sweepstakes if your name is not on the following list add your name and pick and then post. Get in while you can.First prize is 24 hours of saying “nyah nyah told ya so”.

    OK only catching up from last nite, but put me down for 25 to Mt Rudd.
    Can I just add at this point that reports that Mr Rudd was the leaker during the 2010 election campaign are highly disturbing

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